Same as there always has been. Not many. He isn't the product of a bubble.
Same as there always has been. Not many. He isn't the product of a bubble.until the evidence points me in a different direction, i will continue to hold my views. it will be interesting to see just how many nathan birchs there will be emerging in 5 years time.
Same as there always has been. Not many. He isn't the product of a bubble.
I do. There will not be any opportunities in Australian property for decades to come. It's a waste of money anyway, there is no way you can make more money in property than in trading if you know what you're doing. Who wants to play with such illiquid assets, pay all sorts of commissions and duties, and be at the whim of bubbles?
Are you claiming that you do know what your doing when it comes to trading? Or are we just again talking hypothetically?
You have maintained that property will fall 40% (actually it was 30% at first, I am sure) for most of your posts.
Now you are saying it is 250% over-valued.
Say the "real value" is 100.
250% over-valued is 250.
A 40% fall would take this figure back to 150.
Why would you start buying after at least a 40% fall? You would still be buying an over-priced (in your terms) asset would you not?
It would require a 60% fall to get back to 100. I think you are mixing your percentages up. I think it needs to fall more than 60%.
I could be wrong here though. Happy to be corrected.
Just one correction - if the "true value" is 100, and the asset is "250% overvalued", then present price is actually 350 (rather than 250). Try the example for "100% over-valued" and this should make sense ;-)
So in fact, a fall of over 70% would be required from the present point to get back to "true" value if we are 250% over-valued as SCM claimed. To put that in context, that would mean detached 3 bedroom houses in the western suburbs of Sydney selling for < $100k.
I also note that a claim of 250% over-valuation is very different from his subsequent prediction of 40% falls in real terms by 2020 - if CPI averaged 3%pa then that actually only works out to be a 28% fall from today's prices in nominal terms. This is basically Steve Keens current call - heavily revised from some of his more gloomy calls in 2008.....
Meanwhile - here's the latest charts from SCMs most respected data source - RP-Data, updated with their March house price data:
So it looks like last years falls over over for now, and have been since the end of last year. What will happen from here? I reckon modest growth in most cities - more in Sydney than elsewhere, spurred on by a few interest rate cuts through the year.
Also SCM - you said you live in Sydney? Check that second chart again maybe - there is NO crash in Sydney. Falls in 2008 were greater than last years in our town......
PS: If these charts don't convince you that there is no such thing as a "national" real estate market in Australia, and that all markets are regional, then nothing will.
You have maintained that property will fall 40% (actually it was 30% at first, I am sure) for most of your posts.
Now you are saying it is 250% over-valued.
Say the "real value" is 100.
250% over-valued is 250.
A 40% fall would take this figure back to 150.
Why would you start buying after at least a 40% fall? You would still be buying an over-priced (in your terms) asset would you not?
It would require a 60% fall to get back to 100. I think you are mixing your percentages up. I think it needs to fall more than 60%.
I could be wrong here though. Happy to be corrected.
Clueless moron .......... Good bye. Good luck in whatever it is you do.
Are you claiming that you do know what your doing when it comes to trading? Or are we just again talking hypothetically?
Meanwhile - here's the latest charts from SCMs most respected data source - RP-Data, updated with their March house price data:
So it looks like last years falls over over for now, and have been since the end of last year.
All I can say is.....if you thought education was expensive , try ignorance...Derick Bok
just like tech a, trainspotter, bill m, and all the other successful, smart property people on this forum...(apologies if I missed each and everyone of you)
when there was only doom and gloom after the tech wreck of 2000, I too went on a property buying spree.....remember property had supposedly been in the doldrums since the 1990's...as per the media and spruikers....
however the RBA and all other property recording institutions, tell a different story...
there is no actual evidence of same ...
I bought a commercial property, in 2000, at a yield of 10%, it has gained on average 20% capital growth per annum, every year...
the income it is now returning is equivalent to 5% of the current market value,
or ....wait for it,,,,20% income pa...
I also purchased several resi props, currently returning 10% of the cost price,
and sold several resi props at 300% capital gains...the cash was banked, and ready for other prop development investments.....
I used OPM...ie other peoples money, via bank loans....usually only 10% of my money upfront.....
and some of you doubt that I can continue on this road, this very successful journey......
wow ......money talks, and believe me....it is loud and clear...
no wonder only 5% of the population have the gutz to go with their beliefs, experience, goals
and the other 95%, just wish and hope, pray.....against all odds.....
I forget the actual figures, but my parents bought a house with 10 acres of land in the 1940's for about A$5000 pounds, today the land value is worth $5,000,000 bucks...
a rather nice inheritance for the kids, in anybodies language......
and some will suggest that after 70 years, the whole thing will turn upside down..
education and ignorance.....a huge disparity between the two
I should also correct you that 250% over-valued is actually 350% of the original price (that being 100%).
That is false as I have explained above. You merely lack a proper understanding of the data you are failing at trying to analyse. Better luck in the future perhaps.
You cannot take more from a pie than 100% You cannot give 110% as it is more than the ratio allows. You cannot say that propety is 250% OVER VALUED as if it was to drift into the negative it is worth NOTHING !!
You make no sense. Zero. But of course this is nothing new
Not sure if I should get into this debate,but what is happening now that hasnt happened for a hundred years?What is happening now has not happened for a hundred years
Not sure if I should get into this debate,but what is happening now that hasnt happened for a hundred years?
Well yes it is relevant. If your words are to be taken any more serious than just part of the hopeless 95%. Just like your statement that Gold was better than property over the last whatever period I don't think you have the ability or balls to make money out of any of the next moves.Is it relevant to my statement? Are you implying I would have more luck making money in property is I don't? I disagree on all counts.
Not sure if I should get into this debate,but what is happening now that hasnt happened for a hundred years?
Just like your statement that Gold was better than property over the last whatever period I don't think you have the ability or balls to make money out of any of the next moves.
Anyone can state what has been good and why in hindsight. Lots throw out guesses as to what will happen next. Very few actually have a record of doing and succeeding on their talk.
Yeah the TAB is full of losers who do the same. But you would be an idiot to take advice off them. Thats my point. While you stating with much certainty,I also don't understand what you mean about me not having the balls to make money out of any "next move". I trade and I take positions pretty much every day in all sorts of things.
Yeah the TAB is full of losers who do the same. But you would be an idiot to take advice off them. Thats my point. While you stating with much certainty,
1. That there is no money to be made in property and
2. That you can make much more trading
Until you actually do you are just another unproven punter. One of the 95% which is why I find your certainly in thought and inability to listen to those that have gone before you and walked the walk strange.
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