The future of Australian property prices

Glen48 · 2 April 2012

Then it over shoot and takes a long time to climb back get a window RE card as proof you can show your grand kids how much house's were worth and what they are down to now.
After the dust settles there will be a lot not wanting to enter the property market for a long time and back living with their parents , just like the victims of college loans in USA are doing now.
The next few months should show clear signs of direction if the RBA drop the rates and Banks put them up you will know its game on..

young-gun · 3 April 2012

Ves said:
Seriously, you guys have mastered the art of selective reading. Just skipped over his latest developments (highly profitable) willy nilly.

Median prices are about as much use as the ASX index. It's an average or middle point. Not a sum of the opportunites.

I honestly am boggled by your inability to understand this, despite obvious depth and time spent in reading fancy economic reports.

i am boggled by your inability to practise what you preach. if you read the last paragraph i acknowledged techs successful dealings of late, but also pointed out that having the ability to carry out these ventures are a result of being successful over the past 30 years of booming RE. building warehouses that are going to return 60k pa isnt exactly something you can achieve straight off the abt in your early twenties. well maybe it is if youre game to leverage yourself to the hilt in the current market.

for all you know tech has paid cash for the lot, and indeed if i owned something that returned 60k a year, and again i wouldnt give a rats **** if it decreased in value(once again, within reason).

i apologise, as when discussing in this thread i largely am referring to houses, as i dont know much about the state of commercial or industrial property, but on the other side, you need to realise that buying a HOUSE at this point in time would not be a smart move financially. i have been looking around, and there isnt any opportunities that jump out at current.

tech/a · 3 April 2012

young-gun said:
i am boggled by your inability to practise what you preach. if you read the last paragraph i acknowledged techs successful dealings of late, but also pointed out that having the ability to carry out these ventures are a result of being successful over the past 30 years of booming RE. building warehouses that are going to return 60k pa isnt exactly something you can achieve straight off the abt in your early twenties. well maybe it is if youre game to leverage yourself to the hilt in the current market.

for all you know tech has paid cash for the lot, and indeed if i owned something that returned 60k a year, and again i wouldnt give a rats **** if it decreased in value(once again, within reason).

i apologise, as when discussing in this thread i largely am referring to houses, as i dont know much about the state of commercial or industrial property, but on the other side, you need to realise that buying a HOUSE at this point in time would not be a smart move financially. i have been looking around, and there isnt any opportunities that jump out at current.

Your right YG
Many are not in the position to take advantage of those opportunities which are currently available and will be available as Time goes on.

If I was a young person in my 20s I'd be getting myself in a position to take advantage of great deals. I'd be looking for distressed sales and offering 20% less than asking price. I'd be looking for something that I could add value to as my PPR
and looking to move it on in 18 mths or so.
Rinse and repeat. NO CAPITAL GAIN.
Once I had three under my belt I'd be looking at small developments.
Min 3 on a block with a view of sell 2 or 3 and keep 1
You can buy property ( land ) really cheaply as no one is buying.
You can screw builders to the floor as they want any business they can get!
With really quick completion times--- project builders are the cheapest by far.

Sell at least one off plan before you start the development.
Work the maths on 20% less than 12 mths ago.
Keep everything under the accepted sale figures for the area.

For example I have 3 down south.
Last year the same type of development was $ 420-450k
I'm on the market at $365k there is 50k a place at that.
2 down. If I don't sell the other I may keep it with a 200 k cost and rental
At $350/ wk. But would prefer to sell.

Anyway there is a few hints for the younger entrepreneurs out there.
One of my employees started At 23 4 years ago and owns his home freehold after
4 developments.

Ves · 3 April 2012

young-gun said:
i am boggled by your inability to practise what you preach. if you read the last paragraph i acknowledged techs successful dealings of late, but also pointed out that having the ability to carry out these ventures are a result of being successful over the past 30 years of booming RE. building warehouses that are going to return 60k pa isnt exactly something you can achieve straight off the abt in your early twenties. well maybe it is if youre game to leverage yourself to the hilt in the current market.

You acknowledged his post with a negative, "no one else can do that unless it is with special circumstances" type post.

Go look up a bloke called NathanBirch. Was a millionaire through property at 21. Not because he did what everyone else did, but because he saw opportunity whilst others saw disaster (and too much hardwork). Other examples out there, you can find them at your leisure. I have a friend who is my age (26) and he has been retired from traditional work. He started when credit was getting harder. He is still doing developments and still profiting.

You don't have to believe them. It's fine by me.

i apologise, as when discussing in this thread i largely am referring to houses, as i dont know much about the state of commercial or industrial property, but on the other side, you need to realise that buying a HOUSE at this point in time would not be a smart move financially. i have been looking around, and there isnt any opportunities that jump out at current.

Close your eyes at your own leisure. There is a myriad of different techniques out there that require "no money down." No heavy borrowing. If you are good at clutching deals and acting with positivity the world is your oyster.

McLovin · 3 April 2012

Ves said:
You acknowledged his post with a negative, "no one else can do that unless it is with special circumstances" type post.

Go look up a bloke called NathanBirch. Was a millionaire through property at 21. Not because he did what everyone else did, but because he saw opportunity whilst others saw disaster (and too much hardwork). Other examples out there, you can find them at your leisure. I have a friend who is my age (26) and he has been retired from traditional work. He started when credit was getting harder. He is still doing developments and still profiting.

Some people want things handed to them. There are always pockets of value in any market. Of course the title of the thread is "The future of Australian property prices", although that seems to have gone out the window ages ago.

trainspotter · 3 April 2012

The window of opportunity is still there .... ya just gotta work a bit harder at it to get end result.

Tech/a is right ..... we have both posted over several years about commercial property being the way forward for several years now. Has anyone listened?

The trick with property is you have to START somewhere to do what we do for a living (personal experience here). Some you win and some you don't make as much. DO THE HOMEWORK !!

trainspotter · 3 April 2012

Starcraftmazter said:
Only if prices don't drop at least 40% real from peak.

Property in this country is still overpriced by 250%, pretty sure no opportunities exist anywhere. Maybe if it was only 10% you would have been right. But not 250%.

BWAHAHAHAAHAHAHHA *SCOFF* HAHAHAGAGGAAAJJAJAAAAA *GASP* AAGGAGAGAAAA

WTF ??? 250% overpriced ......... you really do not have a clue about percentages then do you !! :

trainspotter · 3 April 2012

tech/a said:
Your right YG
Many are not in the position to take advantage of those opportunities which are currently available and will be available as Time goes on.

If I was a young person in my 20s I'd be getting myself in a position to take advantage of great deals. I'd be looking for distressed sales and offering 20% less than asking price. I'd be looking for something that I could add value to as my PPR
and looking to move it on in 18 mths or so.
Rinse and repeat. NO CAPITAL GAIN.
Once I had three under my belt I'd be looking at small developments.
Min 3 on a block with a view of sell 2 or 3 and keep 1
You can buy property ( land ) really cheaply as no one is buying.
You can screw builders to the floor as they want any business they can get!
With really quick completion times--- project builders are the cheapest by far.

Sell at least one off plan before you start the development.
Work the maths on 20% less than 12 mths ago.
Keep everything under the accepted sale figures for the area.

For example I have 3 down south.
Last year the same type of development was $ 420-450k
I'm on the market at $365k there is 50k a place at that.
2 down. If I don't sell the other I may keep it with a 200 k cost and rental
At $350/ wk. But would prefer to sell.

Anyway there is a few hints for the younger entrepreneurs out there.
One of my employees started At 23 4 years ago and owns his home freehold after
4 developments.

CAREFUL Tech/a ........ you might edumacate the RE myopic masses and then where would we be??

Starcraftmazter · 3 April 2012

trainspotter said:
BWAHAHAHAAHAHAHHA *SCOFF* HAHAHAGAGGAAAJJAJAAAAA *GASP* AAGGAGAGAAAA

WTF ??? 250% overpriced ......... you really do not have a clue about percentages then do you !! :

I'm an engineer buddy, and what are your maths skills like? Maybe you ought to think about what 250% means. Or perhaps you really don't understand just how overpriced property is.

trainspotter · 3 April 2012

Starcraftmazter said:
I'm an engineer buddy, and what are your maths skills like? Maybe you ought to think about what 250% means. Or perhaps you really don't understand just how overpriced property is.

Whoop whoop for you SCM ...... an engineer ... you dont say !! How many developments have you done with your own money? How many subdivisions have you partaken in with your own money? How many commercial properties do you own? How many times have you flipped real estate? How many houses do you own??

I have met over qualified nupties like yourself and employed many more just like you who could not find their **** in three grabs.

I am a property developer and I EMPLOY nupties like you and YOU still get it WRONG.

If you want a pissing contest little boy you have come to the wrong place.

DB008 · 3 April 2012

trainspotter said:
Whoop whoop for you SCM ...... an engineer ... you dont say !! How many developments have you done with your own money? How many subdivisions have you partaken in with your own money? How many commercial properties do you own? How many times have you flipped real estate? How many houses do you own??

Let me take a stab...None, RE is 'overpriced' according to SCM...

Starcraftmazter · 3 April 2012

trainspotter said:
Whoop whoop for you SCM ...... an engineer ... you dont say !! How many developments have you done with your own money? How many subdivisions have you partaken in with your own money? How many commercial properties do you own? How many times have you flipped real estate? How many houses do you own??

And how much does this matter for national RE valuations, being able to predict the trends that will drive RE valuations and understanding boom/bust cycles? Zilch.

trainspotter said:
I am a property developer

So you are inherently biased on this topic. No wonder.

trainspotter said:
If you want a pissing contest little boy you have come to the wrong place.

Really? Tell me, was it you or your other personality that said this?

trainspotter said:
WTF ??? 250% overpriced ......... you really do not have a clue about percentages then do you !! :

Sounds like you're trolling for a pissing contest to me.

trainspotter · 3 April 2012

Starcraftmazter said:
And how much does this matter for national RE valuations, being able to predict the trends that will drive RE valuations and understanding boom/bust cycles? Zilch.

So you are inherently biased on this topic. No wonder.

Really? Tell me, was it you or your other personality that said this?

Sounds like you're trolling for a pissing contest to me.

Oh deary deary me. Another engineer for the grist. Zilch experience but prepared to spend other peoples money to tell them how to do it WRONG ......... AGAIN !!

You fail to recognise I do this for a living ..... so did your tiny brain consider for one second that I understand boom/bust cycles? NUP !!!!!!!!

Inherently biased?? Just LOL on this one ..... did I become succesful on a game of chance?? Go to the casino Oh wise one ......... you would be better off understanding percentages at the crap table then dealing in RE.

Like all young engineers you are so prepared to tell everyone how clever you are but you ignore the people with the experience that does it for a living. Good luck in your vocation. You are gonna need it.

Tell me ...... do you even have another side to you or are you just this moronic all the time?

trainspotter · 3 April 2012

Starcraftmazter said:
And how much does this matter for national RE valuations, being able to predict the trends that will drive RE valuations and understanding boom/bust cycles? Zilch.

So I have the experience of 23 years of property development and you have NONE !!

GEEEEEEEEEZZZZZZZZZZ I wonder who I would listen to for the future of property prices. Good one Mr. Engineer !! LOLOLOL

Starcraftmazter · 3 April 2012

trainspotter said:
You fail to recognise I do this for a living ..... so did your tiny brain consider for one second that I understand boom/bust cycles? NUP !!!!!!!!

If you did, you would never disagree that Australian RE is crashing.

trainspotter said:
Inherently biased?? Just LOL on this one ..... did I become succesful on a game of chance??

No, just the luck of doing it during the biggest credit bubble in history. It takes no skill to buy an asset during it's bubble and watch it go up in price at other peoples' expense. A monkey can do this.

trainspotter said:
Like all young engineers you are so prepared to tell everyone how clever you are

I never said anything about how cleaver I am, merely that you probably aren't in a position to question my mathematical knowledge...

trainspotter said:
but you ignore the people with the experience that does it for a living.

Well here's the thing. What is happening now has not happened for a hundred years, so there is absolutely nothing in your experience which is relevant to the present situation regarding Australian housing. Do not feel special, this goes for everyone. Although people like me who understand this very simple fact are better placed to understand what is happening in the market, and to make the most accurate predictions about the future going forward.

So my predictions are simple, at least 40% by 2020 and at least 60% by 2030. Real terms.

trainspotter said:
So I have the experience of 23 years of property development and you have NONE !!

GEEEEEEEEEZZZZZZZZZZ I wonder who I would listen to for the future of property prices. Good one Mr. Engineer !! LOLOLOL

I fail to see what construction has to do with economics.

trainspotter · 3 April 2012

Starcraftmazter said:
If you did, you would never disagree that Australian RE is crashing.

No, just the luck of doing it during the biggest credit bubble in history. It takes no skill to buy an asset during it's bubble and watch it go up in price at other peoples' expense. A monkey can do this.

I never said anything about how cleaver I am, merely that you probably aren't in a position to question my mathematical knowledge...

Well here's the thing. What is happening now has not happened for a hundred years, so there is absolutely nothing in your experience which is relevant to the present situation regarding Australian housing. Do not feel special, this goes for everyone. Although people like me who understand this very simple fact are better placed to understand what is happening in the market, and to make the most accurate predictions about the future going forward.

So my predictions are simple, at least 40% by 2020 and at least 60% by 2030. Real terms.

I fail to see what construction has to do with economics.

Listen TROLL ........ go and sell your sh1te elsewhere and let the real people who understand what is going on in the real world makes the money that pays your wages.

"mathematical knowledge" FFS ........ If you are so clever with maths you would be able to recognise an opportunity when you see one. Do you have any idea what I did for a living before I chose this vocation?? Why is it that as an engineer you must take a holier than thou approach. An engineer is out of a Weeties packet these days .

You still dont get 250% ................ NOW DO YOU?

Starcraftmazter · 3 April 2012

trainspotter said:
Listen TROLL ........ go and sell your sh1te elsewhere and let the real people who understand what is going on in the real world makes the money that pays your wages.

No need to feel threatened, I know your business sector is in a downturn, and I know it will get worse. If you feel that bad about it, you may as well get out while you're ahead. I hope you are ahead.

Please understand, in all of your time in your current profession, the only thing house prices did was go up. There was not one correction, downturn, crash or anything of the sort. You are completely unfamiliar with what is happening right now. You are in foreign territory. I understand that you feel agitated - but it is not my fault.

trainspotter said:
"mathematical knowledge" FFS ........ If you are so clever with maths you would be able to recognise an opportunity when you see one.

I do. There will not be any opportunities in Australian property for decades to come. It's a waste of money anyway, there is no way you can make more money in property than in trading if you know what you're doing. Who wants to play with such illiquid assets, pay all sorts of commissions and duties, and be at the whim of bubbles?

trainspotter said:
You still dont get 250% ................ NOW DO YOU?

I do - you are the one who questioned it - not me.

Ves · 3 April 2012

Starcraftmazter said:
Only if prices don't drop at least 40% real from peak.

Property in this country is still overpriced by 250%, pretty sure no opportunities exist anywhere. Maybe if it was only 10% you would have been right. But not 250%.

You have maintained that property will fall 40% (actually it was 30% at first, I am sure) for most of your posts.

Now you are saying it is 250% over-valued.

Say the "real value" is 100.

250% over-valued is 250.

A 40% fall would take this figure back to 150.

Why would you start buying after at least a 40% fall? You would still be buying an over-priced (in your terms) asset would you not?

It would require a 60% fall to get back to 100. I think you are mixing your percentages up. I think it needs to fall more than 60%.

I could be wrong here though. Happy to be corrected.

trainspotter · 3 April 2012

Starcraftmazter said:
No need to feel threatened, I know your business sector is in a downturn, and I know it will get worse. If you feel that bad about it, you may as well get out while you're ahead. I hope you are ahead.

Please understand, in all of your time in your current profession, the only thing house prices did was go up. There was not one correction, downturn, crash or anything of the sort. You are completely unfamiliar with what is happening right now. You are in foreign territory. I understand that you feel agitated - but it is not my fault.

I do. There will not be any opportunities in Australian property for decades to come. It's a waste of money anyway, there is no way you can make more money in property than in trading if you know what you're doing. Who wants to play with such illiquid assets, pay all sorts of commissions and duties, and be at the whim of bubbles?

I do - you are the one who questioned it - not me.

Clueless moron .......... Good bye. Good luck in whatever it is you do.

young-gun · 3 April 2012

Ves said:
You acknowledged his post with a negative, "no one else can do that unless it is with special circumstances" type post.

Go look up a bloke called NathanBirch. Was a millionaire through property at 21. Not because he did what everyone else did, but because he saw opportunity whilst others saw disaster (and too much hardwork).

i fail to see how building up wealth over a period of 20-30 years, and then use that to make alot more money is a special circumstance. my negative outlook on housing is no reflection of my character or work ethic...don't confuse the two.

until the evidence points me in a different direction, i will continue to hold my views. it will be interesting to see just how many nathan birchs there will be emerging in 5 years time.

The future of Australian property prices

Glen48

Money can't buy Poverty

young-gun

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

Ves

Beyond Good and Evil

McLovin

trainspotter

trainspotter

trainspotter

Starcraftmazter

trainspotter

DB008

Starcraftmazter

trainspotter

trainspotter

Starcraftmazter

trainspotter

Starcraftmazter

Ves

Beyond Good and Evil

trainspotter

young-gun

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