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The future of Australian property prices

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robz7777 said:
Question: When prices fall is it the top end and low end that fall the hardest??
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Ancient real estate wisdom is ---> "Move up in a down market"

Yes the top end always cops a bigger % crop in a true correction, the real estate market builds from the ground up much like a house
 
kincella said:
rich getting richer, poor struggling
The average wealth of an Australian household in 2009-10 was $720,000, up 14 per cent in the last five years.
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Read the article. It's all averages, not medians so its pretty pointless. Warm & fuzzy feeling though, which is about all its good for.
 
Mr Z said:
Can they actually do that an survive? I doubt it, I think they need a controlled descent and soft landing at the worst so in essence surely they will have to support a fight against any rapid move in property prices.
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Mr Z, when has an engineered soft landing ever actually been soft of recent?
 

real estate will move by enough in all property brackets that it wont matter whether they bought in low- mid or mid to high. fact is if people lose their jobs it doesnt take long for that 'buffer' to disappear.

glad u raised the point about investors, as these guys are going to have a huge part in the crash. every third person these days has an investment property(i dont know the exact %), most owning more than one. as you said they're leveraged to the hilt, negative gearing everything and have taken on crazy amounts of debt. when these guys lose their jobs and their assests start going under water there is going to be a flood of houses on the market in a very short period of time.

kincella, steve keen is right, and there is no way if he sold in 07-08 that his house wouldve increased 25% between then and now
 
house and unit prices in surrey Hills, nsw


steve keen had a unit...he had to sell it due to a divorce settlement...
in 2008......( wow loser status)
prices of units in 2008 were 418,000
prices of units in 2011 were 522,500
an increase of 24%... or thereabouts...

young gun....I suggest you really need to do some serious research, get the facts, rather than simply using emotion, in your arguments

http://www.rs.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin/rsearch?a=sp&s=nsw&u=surry+hills

and for the bears who like to use the dwindling auction results as their 'gotcha moments'
have a look here.....auctions represent such a small % of total sales.... (similar to the popularity stakes for the current incumbent political party)

* but be warned...do not look at the increase in median values over the same period...nor the capital growth figures (close your eyes to those figures)

http://www.reiv.com.au/Property-Research/Housing-Indicators/Auctions-and-private-sales.aspx
 

So what you are saying is if I purchased a house for $418000 in 2008, cash would have performed the same (oh do, do some calculations, but, please, factor in maintenance and depreciation).... well done.

MW
 

That site says the most recent median house price in Surry Hills was $1.9m. That sounds a fair way off. My suburb, Paddington, is showing as a median price of $1.375m which seems on the low side and is more expensive than Surry Hills. Just questioining how reliable those stats are really.
 

I though Steve Keen sold his unit out near Penrith somewhere... that's a lifetime away from Surrey hills.
 
kincella said:
young gun....I suggest you really need to do some serious research, get the facts, rather than simply using emotion, in your arguments
Click to expand...

rich coming from someone who in just about every post has spat out constant ramblings of noticeably flawed statistics.
 
oh dear, you dont get it....the prices for Surrey Hills units......are median prices....
do you know how they calculate the median price....
and you think that, the median price overall has not increased since keen sold....
give me a break.....
in your haste to disregard any increases in house prices....cause it is against your views...you still dont get it...or cannot see the woods for the trees..

have a good day , anyway
 

best u rush out and buy a unit in surry hills, its clearly a win win.

either use keen as an example, or use median unit prices as an example. if you wanna mix and match

keen sold in 08 for 526
median price today 522(2010 stat)

oh no keen lost 4 grand.

i never said prices havent increased at all since 08. theres every chance though that keens proeprty didnt increase over that time. in an area as small as surry hills there is flaws in using median prices. if ten people sold because people like yourself paid wayyy to much,(pushing the median way higher)for it because they believe RE is ok, and ten people sold below the median. can it really be said that surry hills has gone up?

im not saying that this is the case, just point out that it can be flawed focusing on such a small area, im sure stanopera will be back shortly with fresh price updates nationwide to give us a better indication.
 
the saying goes, you cannot teach an old dog new tricks.....

but here is an old dog, who knows all the tricks

I have over 40 years experience in property, purchased my first home at age 21 years...
I have been there all the time....interest rates at 18%, or 6%....I bought property and made great gains everytime

when people like you were saying ...wait for it to come down.....I was out there buying

I am a contrarian investor....when the mob says buy...I sell at a huge profit....
when the mob says sell....I buy , for my huge future profits...

I am not hocked to the hilt....

due to my property investments, I was able to retire early
and now I just sit back, and watch it all grow, the money rolls in....its all good fun
and probably unlike you, who may have a problem , gaining finance....for your first home
it is easy peasy for me....
I have a huge amount of equity and assets...which the banks just love...
together with a regular income from property...which usually seals the deal with the banks
I use OPM (other peoples money) to fund my acquistions....
I have a huge bank of knowledge and research at my disposal...
I would never ever sell in a down market.....how stupid is that policy
If I decide to sell, for whatever reason....it is only ever in a HOT market...
I can wait for the best deals....not necessarily waiting for the market to bottom.....
but looking at one particluar property or location to purchase....

plus , there are plenty of cashed up investors like myself out there in the market....competing against people like you....who in the current market, are simply tyre kickers....
but we nab the properties....you do not...
lately, I find the best deals are in commercial properties...I doubt that you are in that market
but pulease..
have a great day anyway
 
40 whole years experience! WOW.

Read Nikolai Kondratiev, you have only experienced part of one cycle. This is bigger than your experience and might just possibly require a change of tactic.

 
My thoughts are, the ANZ announcement today is more about the banks wanting to keep the thumbscrews on house prices.
Keep them slowly going down to absorb the losses in the balance sheets.
Nothing would hurt the bank balance sheets more than prices flying up or screaming down.
 
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