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The future of Australian property prices

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You can buy any thing you like at any time the smart one's think about what they are buying, do they need it, is it value for money, can I sell for a profit later, is there a catch, am I better of looking at some thing else.

The next thing will be homes bribe comes back in again.
 

GO MELBOURNE, supply accelerating, demand de-accelerating. Well as we are different in Oz, this must mean prices to the moon.

Cheers
 
satanoperca said:
“The tide hasn’t turned,” SQM Research director Louis Christopher said. “The worst is still in front of us. There is a huge overhang of stock for the market to work through and it is going to get worse before it gets better.”
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Who is this idiot?

"Worst is still in front of us"?

"Going to get worse before it gets better"?

Doesn't he know we have the World's Greatest And Most Magnificent Treasurer Ever on the case?

Doh!
 
Aussiejeff said:
Who is this idiot?

"Worst is still in front of us"?

"Going to get worse before it gets better"?

Doesn't he know we have the World's Greatest And Most Magnificent Treasurer Ever on the case?

Doh!
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i hope ur not being sarcastic jeff! im sure swanny has plenty of cards up his sleave... like stimulus....home-owner grants as mentioned above....some nice tight austerity measures.

these will surely save us, all the cool countries are doing it...and they're in great shape....:bananasmi
 
young-gun said:
we wouldnt need fiscal tightening if rudd didnt stimulate swanny is prob just saving up so he can stimulate
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I do not support Rudd's stimulus. I do not support any sort of stimulus. Except building more highways, tunnels and possibly teleportation devices for Sydney. Also NBN.
 

Compared to the uptick previously? Fine to report drops but at what previous gain?? HUH ???

robots is cool ...... leave him out of the convo

*sidenote* Brisbane has just experienced what again? A FLOOD ?? HUH ???
 
trainspotter said:
Compared to the uptick previously? Fine to report drops but at what previous gain?? HUH ???

robots is cool ...... leave him out of the convo

*sidenote* Brisbane has just experienced what again? A FLOOD ?? HUH ???
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The "upswing" argument can be said about any bubble. Pity that it doesn't really help people who bought too late, or are utilising capital to do other things.

Robots is cool, but he goes missing when the heat is on.

Brisbane had a flood. It affected a small proportion of houses directly, and has stimulated trade with insurance payouts etc, and has therefore improved employment in certain areas. How long is this argument going to be used? How many floods were in Melbourne? How many in Perth? How many in Adelaide? etc.

Housing is coming into massive problems, and the gov can ill afford to increase the first home vendors bribe.

MW

PS Where is Robots?
 
"Queensland auction prices hammered" AFR 1st Dec 2011

"...as vendors accept... offers that are below their expectations to conclude deals before Christmas."

"Vendors are getting more and more flexible as they want to move on with their life..."

And thus it begins. Vendors were holding out, hoping for the housing bubble fantasy to continue, but are slowly having to capitulate to reality.

"Gold Coast businessman... accepted $3.5m for his six-bedroom waterfront mansion... which he bought in 2007 for more than $7.36m."

Bugger! A 53% loss in four years (that Steve Keen 40% drop prediction was way off). This Gold Coast businessman lost $18,557 per week for four years, plus it cost another $11k a week on the mortgage. Should've rented dude.

But I wonder why he didn't hold on for a better price? At $3.5m the house would've only had to appreciate 110% from there to break even. Assuming 7% compounded growth per year, it would've only taken 11 years. But...

"...growth rate of 3% is forecast for the state over the next four years."

Bugger. So $3.5m + 3% compounded for four years = $3.94m. Then with a return to the boom of 7% growth, it would only take another 9 years to break even. Adding the four years since he purchased it (2007), in 15 years time it'll almost be worth what he originally payed for it (not including mortgage interest). Sounds like that line from The Castle!!!

"A Brisbane home passed in at $755,000 in March on a $955,000 reserve price was offered again last weekend as a mortgagee-in-possession property. It passed in again with a $630,000 offer, below the $670,000 vendor reserve."

Bugger! So the owner obviously owed more than $755k on the property. Or else he would've sold it. Bet he believed the hype and was trying to make a profit too, despite not being able to afford the mortgage. Now all he's got is a big mortgage on a house he doesn't even own anymore. The bank owns it now and is trying to recoup some of its losses.

The latest offer was 36% percent down on the original reserve price, and 16% down on the last offer in March. Even the new reserve price is 30% below the reserve price in March (9 months ago). Thats a 37.5% (annual) reserve price drop on a sub-one million dollar property in Brisbane. Who would've thunk it?

"...Brisbane's median house price is down 9.3% in 12 months."

The Brisbane median is now $402k. So it must've been $439k 12 months ago. So people who bought 12 months ago lost 37K. Start being honest with first home buyers and tell them that they could lose $700 a week for the next 12 months on bricks n mortar and see how keen they are to buy now. But that's the reality at the mo.

But enough doom & gloom and confirmation bias. I've been looking at positively-geared rentals in some mining regions. They're getting cheaper and more positively-geared by the day. But I guess everyone else is too mortgaged to the hilt to take advantage. Interesting times indeed.

Gonna wait a bit longer for those vendors to get more flexible though. Seems like they've been doing stretches and limbering up for the past year anyway.
 
hello,

robots still around, in Melbourne for a couple of days so no internet

hope thats okay with everybody, i know i should of cleared it

and you know right, you can always check my status as to when i last visited,

thankyou
professor robots
 
trainspotter said:
How long wil this bleating continue? *YAAAAAAAAAWN* ... heard it all before
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Yes, you heard it here first.

Is it getting a bit boring now that you are hearing it on ABC, 7, 9 and 10?


The government want a surplus.. FHVG is unlikely to bail out the greedy this time

MW
 
The one who sell out now are the smart investors, the suckers are the one who stay waiting for the prices to go up again
 
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