The future of Australian property prices

Tysonboss1 · 12 November 2011

Believe me, I am not making light of the danger, a friend of mine has been killed and several scarred and one disabled, it can be dangerous work.

I was just pointing out their is danger every where, we are talking about pay rates though, and if you want to add the risk in afganistan, you can add an extra $60,000 to the annual amount mentioned earlier.

jank · 13 November 2011

Someone mentioned that there is no way to short property but why not short the banks? The key of course is timing.

Tysonboss1 · 13 November 2011

That could proove to be a very patience trying exercise,

medicowallet · 13 November 2011

Tysonboss1 said:
Medico,

Wouldn't the mining boom have an equal effect on professonal wages,

no.. you do know this already, don't you?

explod · 13 November 2011

Tysonboss1 said:
That could proove to be a very patience trying exercise,

I know traders who could have, and some will be, going long and short on NAB over the last 12 months where it has moved up and down from 28 to 20 dollars.

Went to a trading school some 8 years ago where we did just that with BHP.

Theres money to be made for the discerning in these markets. And good traders know when the tops and bottoms are in, just ask Tech/a.

Tysonboss1 · 13 November 2011

medicowallet said:
no.. you do know this already, don't you?

If the mining boom is increasing the wages throughout the economy, I can't see how professionals would not also be benefiting.

Mrmagoo · 14 November 2011

Tysonboss1 said:
If the mining boom is increasing the wages throughout the economy, I can't see how professionals would not also be benefiting.

Because their company does not service the mining industry nor service any industry which does.

" Oh but flow on effects - and it will trickle down ! "

LMAO. Psuedo science much ?

Tysonboss1 · 14 November 2011

Mrmagoo said:
Because their company does not service the mining industry nor service any industry which does.

" Oh but flow on effects - and it will trickle down ! "

LMAO. Psuedo science much ?

So you don't believe the cash generated by mining flows through the economy,

Where do the share holders live that spend the dividends,
Where does the state governments spend their royalties,
where does the federal goverment spend the company tax and income tax,
where do the fly in fly out mine workers spend their pay check,

There are far to many trickle down areas to mention, For example cash from a mine in western NSW, is probably funding school teachers, police officers and road workers in sydney, and that flows on and on,

cutz · 14 November 2011

Tysonboss1 said:
Where do the share holders live that spend the dividends,
Where does the state governments spend their royalties,
where does the federal goverment spend the company tax and income tax,
where do the fly in fly out mine workers spend their pay check

It's a mirage TB, like many I can't see how the cash flows down.

Mr Z · 14 November 2011

cutz said:
It's a mirage TB, like many I can't see how the cash flows down.

Oh come now... just take a look at most all the non commodity economies and tell me how you think they are going! You just don't know how good it actually is down here! People I talk to in the US cite 30% local unemployment... we are soooooo lucky down here it is not funny.

Tysonboss1 · 14 November 2011

cutz said:
It's a mirage TB, like many I can't see how the cash flows down.

It is definately flowing down, I bet you would miss it if it were taken away, Look at al the government departments financed by the royalties and taxes, and flow on employment from the teachers, police, nurses and doctors, soldiers, and the emplyment generated by governent projects like roads, bridges and tunnels etc,

If it weren't for the mining income the government would be in alot more debt, we would be sitting next to greece in the bread line.

disarray · 14 November 2011

mining and energy contribute 8.4% of GDP and employ 1.5% of the workforce. smaller than arts and recreation and the banking sector.

while it provides more than half of our exports eek, and there is some limited spillover into related service industries, the RBA ran numbers that said with all the value add "trickle down" effect mining and energy provides, the sector comes to about 13% of the economy.

in return it has driven the aussie dollar higher strangling the tourism, education and (lol) manufacturing industries.

lets not jump up and down and wave the mining flag as if its some great all encompassing saviour of the country.

Peter Harcher on Hack talking about the mining industry

MACCA350 · 14 November 2011

REIV amended clearance rates for the previous two weekends have been 50%.

This weekends pre-amended clearance rate is 54%, most likely will be amended to around 50% later in the week.

We've seen the clearance rates in the 50s and 60s for over a year now. I've never seen clearance rates stay so low for so long, though I've only been watching for a few years.

It seems sellers are still holding out for better prices rather than taking the offers that are available.

What's everyone's thoughts on this extended period of low clearance rates and how is it impacting the future of prices? Is it an indication that sellers are reluctant to accept that the market has softened? And when they finally to accept current conditions will their sales put negative pressure on future prices?

Just posing some interesting questions for discussion

Cheers

satanoperca · 14 November 2011

MACCA350 said:
REIV amended clearance rates for the previous two weekends have been 50%.

This weekends pre-amended clearance rate is 54%, most likely will be amended to around 50% later in the week.

We've seen the clearance rates in the 50s and 60s for over a year now. I've never seen clearance rates stay so low for so long, though I've only been watching for a few years.

It seems sellers are still holding out for better prices rather than taking the offers that are available.

What's everyone's thoughts on this extended period of low clearance rates and how is it impacting the future of prices? Is it an indication that sellers are reluctant to accept that the market has softened? And when they finally to accept current conditions will their sales put negative pressure on future prices?

Just posing some interesting questions for discussion

Cheers

For me it is quite simple after attending many auctions in the last few months with the aim of buying.

Sellers are wanting last years prices - high
Buyers are wanting next years prices - lower

So it is a stand off at the moment.

Cheers

MACCA350 · 14 November 2011

satanoperca said:
For me it is quite simple after attending many auctions in the last few months with the aim of buying.

Sellers are wanting last years prices - high
Buyers are wanting next years prices - lower

So it is a stand off at the moment.

Cheers

Who do you think is going to blink first?

It feels a bit like the calm before the storm. We're just waiting in anticipation of who's going to retreat, then we'll see a run either up or down. Or can things just keep going the way they have for the last year?

Cheers

Tysonboss1 · 14 November 2011

disarray said:
1, mining and energy contribute 8.4% of GDP and employ 1.5% of the workforce.

2, banking sector.

3,while it provides more than half of our exports,

4, and there is some limited spillover into related service industries, the RBA ran numbers that said with all the value add "trickle down" effect mining and energy provides, the sector comes to about 13% of the economy.

5, in return it has driven the aussie dollar higher strangling the tourism, education and (lol) manufacturing industries.

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1, So thats a big number, especially when you factor in that a Much larger portion of the revenues ends up in government hands than most other industries, 43% Actually, then you have the wages of all the related workers and industries attched to that

2, The banking sector would be smaller if you took away mining think about the loans to mining companies, loans and financel services of mine workers, related industry financing, the strong aussie dollar etc. etc

3, thats huge

4, does that include government spending funded by royalities and taxes.

5, the high dollar is neither a positve or negative

satanoperca · 14 November 2011

MACCA350 said:
Who do you think is going to blink first?

It feels a bit like the calm before the storm. We're just waiting in anticipation of who's going to retreat, then we'll see a run either up or down. Or can things just keep going the way they have for the last year?

Cheers

I would expect that sellers will start reducing their expectations on price as more and more wish to sell.
I forsee this situation happening due to the very large build up of stock for sale in the market at the moment, especially in Melbourne.

Note : the last seven auctions I have attending in inner melbourne have all seen no sales. approx 3 have gone unreported.

I also find it interesting that the last two revisions down on auction clearance rates have been to that magical level of 50%. If it was 49%, doesn't sit as well as 50% as you could say less than half of all auction homes are not selling. 50% is sitting on the fence.

Cheers

explod · 14 November 2011

Tysonboss1 said:
5, the high dollar is neither a positve or negative

You have to be joking, go back to my post on here Saturday.

Interesting, if you cant jump it you ignore it.

And back to the big miners. very large share holdings are held by overseas investors, many still in the old homeland, the UK.

cutz · 14 November 2011

Mr Z said:
Oh come now... just take a look at most all the non commodity economies and tell me how you think they are going! You just don't know how good it actually is down here! People I talk to in the US cite 30% local unemployment... we are soooooo lucky down here it is not funny.

Don't get me wrong Mr Z, I do feel we have it good here but it's not because of the mining boom, I think it may have to do with a speculative bubble that hasn't popped yet.

Tysonboss1 · 14 November 2011

explod said:
You have to be joking, go back to my post on here Saturday.

Interesting, if you cant jump it you ignore it.

And back to the big miners. very large share holdings are held by overseas investors, many still in the old homeland, the UK.

The high dollar helps some people and hinders others, over all it balances out.

Yes, there are over seas interests in our mining indusrty, this in no way stops royalties flowing to the government, and it doesn't stop australians earning wages and paying income tax, and it doesn't stop the various other industries.

And the international investors in australia are offset by aussies investing over seas,

The future of Australian property prices

explod

explod

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