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I'm not trying to be selective but would like the discussion to be more balanced. Well located and well priced properties appear to be doing well. I own a Kedron unit which is close to the soon to be completed northern busway. There appears to be a big demand for the units in the complex. About 4 units have come onto the market recently and have all sold at great prices within a few weeks of listing.
There are a lot less opportunities and you need to work harder, but good opportunities do exist.
Some areas are getting hit hard - predominately 'non-traditional' housing (seasonal, coastal, regional, etc) but in 'mortgage belt' areas there's a lot of mixed results. Generally speaking those that have skyrocketed due to being in vogue are coming off their highs but the more steady areas are still chugging along nicely.
I think we will have this continue for a while yet (mixed results, lots of sideways movement but an underlying positive trend, weaker than what we've had in the last 2 decades). The economy is not growing at a blistering pace but neither is it performing badly (unless you compare it relative to the boom years).
I'm still supporting a rate cut in upcoming months, which will boost prices. I was derided a few pages back on this thread for going against what Glenn Stevens was touting to the media - surprise surprise he's cut growth forecasts and is not as supportive of a rate rise.
Good call. I agree with you but reckon the local economy is mainly slowing due to lack of confidence in my opinion and so could easily take off again if this improves. The world is on the way out so I can't see the big recession here yet. Maybe in a few years.
Do you agree?
Personally in my opinion I reckon the property price for Australia for the long term is down nationally overall. Not the raving lunatic harbringers of doom and gloom style but more of a deflation than a massive POP. 3 - 5 % would be realistic terms.
This being said there will be places that will suffer Chernobyl style meltdowns. Ipswich in Brisbane for one is going through "mortgage stress" right now. DYOR.
Also there will be isolated pockets that will keep ticking over and returning modest returns. Pick places on the coast that are not entirely overheated and maybe have a future plan of infrastructure type projects in front of them.
I know this is sitting on the fence style of running commentary and not really telling everybody what they don't already know. The truth is we really will not know for another few years as the market levels out. Lotsa factors to consider from outside influences that will determine whether it is flight or fight time for the RE housing regime of Australalia. (no that is not a typo ... announciate it in your head)
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/agents-withhold-house-price-data-20110709-1h859.html?from=smh_ft
Agents withhold house price data
Chris Vedelago and Cameron Houston
July 10, 2011
Comments 15
Nearly 30 per cent of auction results published by the Real Estate Institute of Victoria in June were missing critical information.
MELBOURNE real estate agents and vendors are increasingly withholding or manipulating data provided to the Real Estate Institute of Victoria, prompting calls for the mandatory reporting of all property sales to protect consumers.
A Sunday Age investigation has found that 27 per cent of all auction results published by the industry body in June were missing critical information - including the sale price, passed-in price or the reserve. Many auctions were not reported at all, distorting clearance rates that are used by buyers and sellers to gauge market strength.
Nearly one in five properties sold at auction are now reported to the REIV with the price marked ''undisclosed'' - a significant increase from last year's property boom, up from 11 per cent then to 18 per cent now.
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The investigation also revealed that 43 per cent of properties scheduled for auction in June had no published quote range, further frustrating buyers' attempts to obtain basic information. With Melbourne's clearance rate slumping over the past year - only about half the properties on offer are selling under the hammer - agents are increasingly refusing to disclose information about failed auctions. The passed-in price, vendor's reserve price or both were withheld for 20 per cent of all properties that were passed in last month.
At the peak of the boom in March last year, when auction clearance rates regularly topped 80 per cent, only 15 per cent of properties passed in were missing this key information.
Real estate agents and vendors have been accused of deliberately omitting auction information to conceal poor results and create a more positive perception of Melbourne's ailing property market.
Last month, agency RT Edgar sent a newsletter to clients warning there was a ''serious question mark'' over media reporting on the market because many agents were withholding sale prices and passed-in results. RT Edgar director Michael Ebeling said agents who were doing the right thing were being disadvantaged
because their competitors' clearance rates seemed better because they withheld information.
''We cannot see how the media is getting reliable sales statistics, and as a result are reporting misinformation about the market,'' the email said.
Despite conceding that the reporting system is a ''bit rubbery around the edges'', the Real Estate Institute of Victoria has refused to back calls for compulsory reporting of all auction results.
Prominent real estate agent Barry Plant backed calls for mandatory reporting of all auction results to promote transparency.
''What happens at a public auction is obviously in the public domain. So rain, hail or shine, whatever happens on the day, the sale price must be included in all auction reports,'' he said.
He said agents often refused to disclose the price of a house sold at or after auction when the results were below vendor expectations. ''There's a lot of agents who have been embarrassed by the falling market because they've told a vendor they could get a certain price and failed,'' Mr Plant said.
''The trend is more pronounced at the top end of the market, and I know of several agents who are doing this as policy.''
REIV head Enzo Raimondo defended the institute's voluntary reporting methodology, saying the ''small increase'' in the number of undisclosed results did not affect the integrity of the system.
''It is not the role of the REIV to force home owners to publicly declare the amount for which their homes sell. If a person really wants to know the price for which a home sells, they can attend the auction,'' Mr Raimondo said.
But buyers advocate Christopher Koren said many agents were resorting to ''sneaky behaviour'' to mislead buyers over the true state of the market and that mandatory reporting was ''an obvious and necessary reform''.
''When agents and vendors are selling a property, they want the world to know it's on the market.
''But when it fails to sell or doesn't get the price they want at auction, we start seeing smoke and mirrors,'' Mr Koren said.
He criticised the REIV for its failure to introduce tougher reporting measures and called on the state government to take action.
But Minister for Consumer Affairs Michael O'Brien said the government had no plans to intervene. ''Mandatory disclosure would jeopardise the privacy of many people,'' he said.
The data collected by the REIV is regularly used by media organisations, including The Sunday Age, to assess the state of the property market.
The Baillieu government made a surprise decision last week to relax regulations protecting consumers from agents who buy a property they have been hired to sell despite the obvious conflict of interest.
Mr O'Brien said the onus should be on real estate agents to self-regulate.
Non reporting has been going on for years UBI. Get used to it. Enzo enjoyed it. The ABS goes by bank standards as well as Land Titles Office measurements. Can't fudge the numbers when the Land Transfer Office has been paid and settlement has occurred into another name by the bank who owns the mortgage. State Revenue Department has a say in it as well. If you have purchased another property you have to pay stamp duty on it. These are the figures that count. Not the Enzo variety.
These are the figures to take notice of.
Yes, but Ubi still has a point.
REIV is a party to actively promoting the dissemination of mis-leading information to consumers.
Apparently, Minister for consumer Affairs O'Brien cares not a toss about this - apparently, he feels safe enough ensconced in his Ivory Tower to withstand the slings & arrows heading his way from a growing band of disgruntled consumers & RE agents alike - for now.
Rod Lambert is my cousin. His Father David opened up a nursery called Evergreen on the G. coast in the 70's when they were trendy.
Dave did the right thing by all and died, the 3 kids ended up collect the dividends from the sale of the nursery some years ago and are now all bankrupt.
The joys of real estate.
So the kids went bankrupt and not the land?
Didn't you know that bankruptcy occuring several years post-sale of real estate is the fault of real estate speculation?
The joys of real estate indeed!
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