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China refuses to revalue it's yuan. A low yuan keeps China's exports cheap, keeps hundreds of millions of Chinese peasants employed in factories making cheap goods, and therefore keeps them happy and unlikely to protest against their communist leaders.
“The luxury end of the housing market is also showing its volatility. During the growth phase of the cycle the most expensive homes realised the highest capital gains. Yet as the market cools premium home values seem to be losing steam the fastest,” he said.
Rismark Joint Managing Director, Christopher Joye, added, “The uber-luxury segment is risky and highly illiquid and has had the rug whipped from under it via a combination of the soaring Aussie dollar and the volatile share market. A final fly in the ointment is the much lower growth - and pay packets - expected in the financial services industry going forward. Luxury homes in areas like Sydney’s Eastern Suburbs will continue to face valuation headwinds as banks deal with the new normal of subdued credit growth.”
The national median dwelling price in capital cities is $468,000 based on sales over the three months to April. In the ‘Rest of State’ (i.e., non-capital city) markets, the national median dwelling price is a far lower $325,000. Across all Australian regions, the median dwelling price is currently $418,000.
They just go with whatever sells better which most of the time is negative.I don't know why mainstream media keep going on about how falling house prices are a bad thing. Why? Makes them more affordable
I don't know why mainstream media keep going on about how falling house prices are a bad thing. Why? Makes them more affordable
How much is a property say you paid 1M for and now worth 300K but there are no buyers?
I predict house prices will tumble once the rest of OZ wakes up to the ponzi scheme and realize its just like USA
Spare a thought doomsayers to the statistic that 70% of Australian households own or are purchasing their home. For house prices to 'plunge/plummet/crash/whatever colourful adjective you want to use' you need supply to exceed demand (basically). Almost 3/4 of Australian households own or are purchasing their home - why would they sell? Even if they see house prices dropping why on Earth would they sell?
Sound like if you were playing roulette you would keep doubling up on the Black regardless how much you lost.
All you are doing here is shooting the messenger true RE was OK as a forced saving over the years but now the rules have changed USA didn't owe $75 T 40 odd years ago.
China could have a much bigger RE bubble than USA OZ has all its eggs in China's basket and China is heading to become basket case.
Keep buying at least a few people will get some money from the sales.
USA didnt owe that much 40 years ago, nor did they own all they assets they acquired through the GFC either - there is some backing to the debt you must realise...
Cheers KurwaJegoMac. Enjoy reading comments from both the permabears and the permabulls and really hope both stick around. Without either one it would just be a property circle jerk (we had enough of those kind-of circle-jerk home-reno home-flipping TV shows during the property boom to know how sickening that would be).
Regarding your post on the effect of other nations on Australia, the US GDP is around $14 trillion. 70% of that is consumer spending, or almost $10 trillion dollars per year. But it is now shrinking due to over-indebted citizens. They were China's biggest customers (as well as debt-struggling Europe), so China's exporters are struggling. The Chinese govt pumped up a property and infrastructure bubble to try to alleviate it. But if that fails, then resource prices will plummet, and then Australia's mining boom will evaporate. So what happens in America affects us all, unfortunately.
Your points about homeowners not selling, despite possible price drops, is valid. But they are no longer unleashing increased equity in their homes for new cars/boats/shacks/holidays, and hence it impacts on our economy negatively too. People selling all that stuff are earning less, and aren't going to bid up property.
Property investors are different. Low yield and continued negative capital growth would scare them off. Selling could then become a flood.
And finally, I've got a mate who bought $60k of BHP shares when they were $10 each a decade ago. Now they're around $45 and are yielding 2.3% franked. So in ten years he's had 350% capital growth, and yielding over 10% after tax (on his original $10).
Obviously this is entirely irrelevant. It tells us nothing about the future of Australian share prices, just as some story about how much so and so made on a property he bought 15 years ago. This thread is about the future of Australian property prices, not the past. Everyone knows we've just been through a 15 year property boom. The real question is, what happens next?
Love youse all
Once the system is leveraged then the movement happens almost entirely at the margins, with price discovery occurring generally when new money enters the market.
Thus your simplistic statement doesn't take into account macro factors that are hugely important and even misconstrues the idea of supply and demand:
1. Mortgage origination. For prices to continue up, the buyers must have hard cash equivalent to more than the current going price (highly unlikely) or the bank must be willing to lend it to them (much more likely). Considering the huge amounts of funding which the big 4 Aussie banks require from overseas to roll over debt, and originate new debt then the relationship between seemingly incongruous (they always seem incongruous in complex systems) factors becomes pretty clear. You used Greece as an example, it's a great one. How could a little tourist island in the Med have any impact on Australian house prices? Let me lay a hypothetical on you:
Greek bond crisis -> European bond market liquidity issues -> All marginal borrowers (our big 4 banks are a good example) shunted to the side and locked out of the market. Overnight and short term borrowing dries up or costs much much more and Australian mortgage origination rates decline massively in the same timeframe. Buying at the margins ceases, so there is a sudden huge mismatch between the number of buyers and the number of sellers.
2. Supply/demand: You state prices can only go down if everyone sells. This is a misrepresentation. In fact, if everyone who was going to buy has bought then there are no more buyers to continue pushing the price up. Even a normal level of supply will be able to drive prices down when there is no demand to fight it off.
So please, now that the FHBs are fully suckered in, explain to us all where the marginal demand is going to come from.
3. Nominal vs real (prices and income): if the price for productivity (i.e. wages) does not increase in line with the price of assets then the value of productivity is necessarily diminished. In the specific example of Australian home prices, this is definitely the case (it gets worse when you add health insurance, taxes, food and fuel, etc to the mix). The value of productivity has been diminished in regards to the purchase of a home and therefore demand is mathematically capped. Not to mention Australians have a history of being statistically less productive than almost all of their G20 counterparts with statistically higher inflation rates to boot.
Only those who are still being renumerated on an equivalent sliding scale to house prices can afford to keep on the right side of the line, anyone else falls to the wayside. The line used to move very slowly in an oscillating or cyclical pattern, now it moves very quickly in an inexorable forward direction. i.e. less and less people are on the right side of the line no matter how budgety and frugal they are and at the same time it requires more and more effort just to maintain the same position.
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