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Interesting post greebly, but dollar/yuan printing is not the only factor when it comes to food prices. Many maize crops worldwide (most noticeably in the US & Brazil) a switching from food producing to energy producing; using the corn to produce ethonol instead of food. Plam oil plantations in SE Asia are doing the exact same thing - less food production, more alternate energy production.
This is already having an impact on food prices as lower global yields combines with greater demand with an increasingly industrialised middle class in many developing nations.

I don't disagree with the premise or analysis - things may very well pan out this way. We don't think the US became all green and globally responsible overnight whilst their political slide to the right continues, do we?
 
G 24
You are correct and this is why China is looking to take over any country with the good' they need .. by any method the chose including force so one day you could be working for the PROC feds.
Imagine if every person in china ate 1 more grain of rice doesn't sound much but like a dripping tap is soon adds up.

Sell every thing and buy PM's while you still can.
Make sure you are out of RE asap
 

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110531-703455.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/so...fourth-quarter-2011-05-31?link=MW_latest_news

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110525-703152.html

""The yuan is up 5.1% against the U.S. currency since June, when China loosened its currency's two-year-long peg to the dollar. Analysts widely expect the yuan to rise 5%-7% against the dollar this year. ""


FACTS ARE KING . some people just arent in the loop
 
I don't know why mainstream media keep going on about how falling house prices are a bad thing. Why? Makes them more affordable
 
RP DATA strikes again ...


Wow ..... wish I had all of these wank words in my arsenal.
 
I don't know why mainstream media keep going on about how falling house prices are a bad thing. Why? Makes them more affordable
They just go with whatever sells better which most of the time is negative.
e.g.
"Home ownership more affordable" vs "House prices set to craaaaash"​
or the other way around,
"Young Aussie battlers locked out of the Aussie dream" vs "Robots just got richer" (assuming he actually owns property)​
 
I don't know why mainstream media keep going on about how falling house prices are a bad thing. Why? Makes them more affordable

Because so much manufacturing (AKA means of building wealth) has been off-shored to Asia, rising house prices are an important component in growth.

Lower house prices = less growth = less capacity to borrow etc etc.

It's a ponzi as it stands right now.

IMNTBCHO of course.
 
If you watch that UK property program, they often get kit homes from Germany.

Surely it is only a matter of time before we can do this from overseas also.
 
How much is a property say you paid 1M for and now worth 300K but there are no buyers?

I predict house prices will tumble once the rest of OZ wakes up to the ponzi scheme and realize its just like USA
 
How much is a property say you paid 1M for and now worth 300K but there are no buyers?

I predict house prices will tumble once the rest of OZ wakes up to the ponzi scheme and realize its just like USA

Prices should tumble because they did in the USA? Why should they? Just because house prices fall overseas doesn't mean ours should. Seems that everyone is harping on about the great big fall in the US - whoopdee doo. Didn't see Australia hit a decade long recession because Japan did, didn't see our economic growth hit double digits because China did, didn't see our inflation hit triple digits because Zimbabwe did, didn't see our government near bankruptcy because Greece did, etc.

The US economy influences ours - of that there is no doubt - but it does not dictate our asset prices. Our respective micro and macro economic environments do.

Spare a thought doomsayers to the statistic that 70% of Australian households own or are purchasing their home. For house prices to 'plunge/plummet/crash/whatever colourful adjective you want to use' you need supply to exceed demand (basically). Almost 3/4 of Australian households own or are purchasing their home - why would they sell? Even if they see house prices dropping why on Earth would they sell?

Put yourself in their shoes - you own a home and it's value has dropped by 10%. Are you going to sell it? If you're an astute investor you might - but most of the population isn't. Guess what they're going to do - sit on it and ride it out. They're in it for a home, not for flipping their property.

If they're not selling where's the supply going to come from? Investors selling up? Yes quite a few of the 'capital gain' flippers will be caught out for sure, but how many wise investors will just pile in onec these bargains show up?

If I see house prices drop 10% guess what i'll be doing - definitely not selling (unless you count selling a kidney to cover a deposit on another investment property).

Who here actually OWNS investment property and has been around long enough to see asset cycles play out?

Meh. It's hump day and i've had enough of rambling and either way most of you won't care what i've written or will dismiss it straight away with your usual prejudice. I couldn't care less. I can see why there's only 1 or 2 people that hang around to stand up to the perma-bears... anyway hooray for another year in people getting it wrong...

again...

and again...

Anyway that should stir up a hornets nest of angry bears. Have at me you growling pessimists... RAWR

Sources: http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/rp/2008-09/09rp21.pdf
 
[""The yuan is up 5.1% against the U.S. currency since June, when China loosened its currency's two-year-long peg to the dollar. Analysts widely expect the yuan to rise 5%-7% against the dollar this year. ""

FACTS ARE KING . some people just arent in the loop[/QUOTE]

Cheers ginar. Read the brief articles. Interesting. I should have mentioned that it's just a theory of mine. Perhaps if I'd said China is only allowing it's yuan to rise in tiny increments (far less than inflation) then I would be right. Also check out today's AFR:

Australian Financial Review Wed 1st June 2011
"China cools but inflation's on the boil

...One step China could take against inflation is to stop issuing hundreds of billions of extra yuan each month to pay for intervention in the currency markets. The intervention has slowed the yuan's rise against the US dollar to an annual pace of about 5 per cent. But few economists expect China to stop intervening.
While doing so would benefit Chinese consumers by making imported commodities less expensive, it would also make Chinese exports less competitive and could prompt factories to lay off workers."


So I'm not really sure how I'm out of the loop. Everything I read only seems to support my theory. Hundreds of billions of extra yuan per month? Without this intervention, the yuan would have massively appreciated (as any currency does for any other strong economy ie like ours) and the Chinese over-capitalised low-margin export-based so-called-miracle economy would have already collapsed.

Your articles state that analysts expect another 5% rise in the yuan this year. That's despite China printing hundreds of billions of extra yuan per month? The AFR article also talks about how Chinese authorities aren't letting electricity utilities to charge more to residential users (despite a 36% increase in coal prices this year). The reason? Why to help try to limit inflation of course.

Sorry to go on about it, but I think it would be unwise to gamble on rising Australian property prices using the justification of our mining industry riding on the back of a 30-year boom in China (by the way, why's it only 30 years, not 100 years? what happens in 30 years time?). The idea that China will continue growing at 10% a year for the next 30 years is just crap. Their economy is already dropping below that, while inflation is rising. It this the beginning of stagflation there?

The only two other countries in the last century who had such massive industrial capacity, and heavy reliance on export markets, were the US in the 1920s and Japan in the 1980s. And we all know what happened to them then. China is trapped between rising inflation and an yuan increasing in value which would limit growth and by extension, threaten the commies' grip on power. And the US just keeps stoking the fire by printing their own money.

And if the Chinese boom cracks up, then I'd humbly suggest our property markets would be in serious trouble. A fact not lost upon even the most ardent property bulls out there.
 
Sound like if you were playing roulette you would keep doubling up on the Black regardless how much you lost.

All you are doing here is shooting the messenger true RE was OK as a forced saving over the years but now the rules have changed USA didn't owe $75 T 40 odd years ago.
China could have a much bigger RE bubble than USA OZ has all its eggs in China's basket and China is heading to become basket case.

Keep buying at least a few people will get some money from the sales.
 
Cheers KurwaJegoMac. Enjoy reading comments from both the permabears and the permabulls and really hope both stick around. Without either one it would just be a property circle jerk (we had enough of those kind-of circle-jerk home-reno home-flipping TV shows during the property boom to know how sickening that would be).

Regarding your post on the effect of other nations on Australia, the US GDP is around $14 trillion. 70% of that is consumer spending, or almost $10 trillion dollars per year. But it is now shrinking due to over-indebted citizens. They were China's biggest customers (as well as debt-struggling Europe), so China's exporters are struggling. The Chinese govt pumped up a property and infrastructure bubble to try to alleviate it. But if that fails, then resource prices will plummet, and then Australia's mining boom will evaporate. So what happens in America affects us all, unfortunately.

Your points about homeowners not selling, despite possible price drops, is valid. But they are no longer unleashing increased equity in their homes for new cars/boats/shacks/holidays, and hence it impacts on our economy negatively too. People selling all that stuff are earning less, and aren't going to bid up property.

Property investors are different. Low yield and continued negative capital growth would scare them off. Selling could then become a flood.

And finally, I've got a mate who bought $60k of BHP shares when they were $10 each a decade ago. Now they're around $45 and are yielding 2.3% franked. So in ten years he's had 350% capital growth, and yielding over 10% after tax (on his original $10).

Obviously this is entirely irrelevant. It tells us nothing about the future of Australian share prices, just as some story about how much so and so made on a property he bought 15 years ago. This thread is about the future of Australian property prices, not the past. Everyone knows we've just been through a 15 year property boom. The real question is, what happens next?

Love youse all
 

Once the system is leveraged then the movement happens almost entirely at the margins, with price discovery occurring generally when new money enters the market.

Thus your simplistic statement doesn't take into account macro factors that are hugely important and even misconstrues the idea of supply and demand:

1. Mortgage origination. For prices to continue up, the buyers must have hard cash equivalent to more than the current going price (highly unlikely) or the bank must be willing to lend it to them (much more likely). Considering the huge amounts of funding which the big 4 Aussie banks require from overseas to roll over debt, and originate new debt then the relationship between seemingly incongruous (they always seem incongruous in complex systems) factors becomes pretty clear. You used Greece as an example, it's a great one. How could a little tourist island in the Med have any impact on Australian house prices? Let me lay a hypothetical on you:

Greek bond crisis -> European bond market liquidity issues -> All marginal borrowers (our big 4 banks are a good example) shunted to the side and locked out of the market. Overnight and short term borrowing dries up or costs much much more and Australian mortgage origination rates decline massively in the same timeframe. Buying at the margins ceases, so there is a sudden huge mismatch between the number of buyers and the number of sellers.

2. Supply/demand: You state prices can only go down if everyone sells. This is a misrepresentation. In fact, if everyone who was going to buy has bought then there are no more buyers to continue pushing the price up. Even a normal level of supply will be able to drive prices down when there is no demand to fight it off.

So please, now that the FHBs are fully suckered in, explain to us all where the marginal demand is going to come from.

3. Nominal vs real (prices and income): if the price for productivity (i.e. wages) does not increase in line with the price of assets then the value of productivity is necessarily diminished. In the specific example of Australian home prices, this is definitely the case (it gets worse when you add health insurance, taxes, food and fuel, etc to the mix). The value of productivity has been diminished in regards to the purchase of a home and therefore demand is mathematically capped. Not to mention Australians have a history of being statistically less productive than almost all of their G20 counterparts with statistically higher inflation rates to boot.

Only those who are still being renumerated on an equivalent sliding scale to house prices can afford to keep on the right side of the line, anyone else falls to the wayside. The line used to move very slowly in an oscillating or cyclical pattern, now it moves very quickly in an inexorable forward direction. i.e. less and less people are on the right side of the line no matter how budgety and frugal they are and at the same time it requires more and more effort just to maintain the same position.

I can think of plenty more, but those are the 3 main ones that pop in my head. Demographics and our Governments incessant meddling in housing/building markets causing structural imbalance are others.
 

USA didnt owe that much 40 years ago, nor did they own all they assets they acquired through the GFC either - there is some backing to the debt you must realise...
 
USA didnt owe that much 40 years ago, nor did they own all they assets they acquired through the GFC either - there is some backing to the debt you must realise...

And how much of this "backing" will be recovered by the people who have a claim to it at anywhere near current marked to bull**** prices?

Only those closest to the printing press benefit. Everyone (you and me) else pays the difference!
 
Beautifully argued sinner.

There is an argument expounded in today's Age that we are merely seeing problems as the first home owner bribe has dropped and the low interest rates have ended. So some small correction should be expected. I am not convinced we will have a big fall but then again I am not convinced it won't happen either.
 

I admit I can be too much of an optimist sometimes, but I certainly don't bet it all on black I just don't see the crash happening that lots of people are hoping for - everyone wants us to crash like the US did so they can buy these assets on the cheap. People blindly assume that because we're expensive and the US crashed then we must too.

That being said I also don't see the rapid growth we've had over the past 10-15 years continuing for much longer. At worst I see stagnant prices yo-yoing around the median, at best subdeued YoY growth.


Agree that what happens in America will have a profound effect on our economy (They sneeze we catch a cold and all that), but while it will effects our economy it does not dictate it and I don't believe it has a direct impact on our property prices. It will have an indirect effect if shocks over there cause our interest rates to climb, or unemployment to rise, etc - but until these factors get bad enough in our economy i dont see it triggering a major crash (although we will most definitely have pressure on asset prices)

No economy is safe from a US & China collapse. Although I'm particularly worried about China - you can't grow that rapidly and not have problems (and they do have problems!!)


Agreed - the reduciton in use of equity is apparent and will hurt our economy. But in my view will only bring it down to more organic levels of growth and help to curb inflation (we're already above the RBA's target band and they're still reluctant to raise interest rates - this raises a red flag for me)

Regarding property investors - these will be the ones leading the selling (especially like one of my close mates, who'se purchased 3 negatively geared, negative cash flow properties in the last 3 years and a PPOR and has maybe $200 a week to live off), but one must bear in mind that not all investors are negative cash flow investors seeking capital gains. Many are positive cashflow and/or held property for a while and will probably hold on despite the downturn (these sort of investors don't have capital gains as their primary focus, but not sure how many of these exist in the last decade )


Well we all know that Shares are better : That's why we're on the ASF and not APF ey?

Your last comment about the 15 year property boom is definitely one worth heading for the bulls and bears alike.
 

So the financial system freezes and banks cannot lend money - as you say most people would use leverage when buying property so what happens here?

Buyers dry up as they cannot access funding, so supply is heavily increased (people are still selling but no one is buying). Still boils down to supply and demand.

We survived the financial meltdown of the GFC, including the credit freeze so im not worried about this point for now. Of course we could always cop a black swan but then again one should always have an adequate risk margin.


This is what i wrote:

"For house prices to 'plunge/plummet/crash/whatever colourful adjective you want to use' you need supply to exceed demand (basically)."

This is a far cry from 'price only go down if everyone sells'.

It all comes down to supply and demand at the end of the day.

So please, now that the FHBs are fully suckered in, explain to us all where the marginal demand is going to come from.

Well we've got another round of them coming (20% reduction in stamp duty in July!) I don't like it as much as you do - the market should not be manipulated by the Government. It hardly ever ends well.

Even so, i don't see even FHBs lasting us much longer and you're right - where is the demand going to come from when they go? The next government-handout-FHBs? I surely hope not.



Completely agree with you here Sinner. It's a big problem and you're 100% right - more and more people are needing to put in more and more effort just to maintain the same position.

If we keep heading this way we'll destroy our middle class, I certainly don't like the situation and I don't think Government throwing cash at young, naive people will fix the issue.
 
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