So are there 700,000 empty homes additional to the early 80's?
That's 1 additional empty in 12.
Additional Holiday homes and holiday units perhaps?
The HIA have premised this whole note on the fact that we are not the same as the US. E.g the US had 1.7 starts per person increase and Australia on 0.5... that is still one house for every two people.
The "Ponzi" is fuelled by market distorting govt policy that gives generous tax benefits to property investors no matter how many properties they finance with other people's money-OPM. How many thousands of owner-occupier buyers have been out bid by property investors/speculators using govt subsidy and leveraging to the hilt to build their property portfolios I wonder.Yes, there is no reason why we can't get returns of 10% per year ad infinitum - so long as the Manic Money Makers continue to Fund the Ponzi?
SusanW, cant understand you, on one hand you comment how poor performing RE has been(especially in Bris) then you comment that the RBA wants to stop the bubble,
what is it, Bubble or poor performing asset? no bubble, i reckon just run of the mill cost of replacement scenarios
aussie banks get 30% of their funding from overseas organisations, thats all, not much
so yeah, lending is all as per normal, house prices as per normal, oh well
Reserve Bank 'gets it wrong'
The Housing Industry Association's senior economist Andrew Harvey says the figures show the Reserve Bank's rate rise yesterday was untimely.
"The weak housing outlook is compounded by yesterday's interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank which, due to the additional independent 20 basis point increase by the Commonwealth Bank, will act like a sledgehammer on confidence and economic activity in the non-resource sectors," he said in a statement.
"This total 45 basis point increase in home-lending rates will seriously dent new home demand and confidence, and is worrying as it follows the removal of the First Home Owners Boost and the impact of previous rate hikes.
"Indeed, it appears that we have a near perfect storm of poor conditions for the house-building market at the very time a sustainable boost to Australia's housing supply is needed to allow a balanced economic recovery."
CommSec's chief economist Craig James has also slammed the central bank's decision to raise rates in November.
"Did the Reserve Bank get it wrong by lifting rates yesterday - it certainly looks like it," he wrote in a note on the figures.
"Not only are approvals below longer-term averages but the drop in approvals over the past five months is the biggest in a decade.
"Builders were already worrying where their next jobs were going to come from and clearly those risks have intensified after the latest lift in official interest rates."
CommSec says the downturn is not confined to residential property, with commercial construction approvals at five year lows.
as expected. the sunday age prints what i have telling my mates all week will be a safe 60% clearance rate.. the all important psychological 60 threshold remains..
and presto.. there it is!!
175 no results!!
and as usual, the hidden figures and bulldust prevail, like last week, when they postured an typical above 60% clearance rate in the sunday media, from an actual of 56% when those dastardly "no result" were put into the equation..
LOL
i tip a 55% actual for melbourne for this weekend going by the usual pattern..
back to the latte sipping developas to make a mockery of you all on this very entertaining thread..
hype up the bubbles and sip that latte.. lol
http://reiv.com.au/home/inside.asp?ID=162Weekly Auction & Sales Results, Market Overview
Saturday 20th & Sunday 21st November 2010
This is the first weekend of the busiest four week period ever in the Melbourne residential auction market.
In each of the next three weekends the REIV is expecting over 1000 auctions.
The clearance rate this weekend is [size=+2]59 per cent[/size], a result that is consistent with the market's performance since the latest interest rate increase.
There was a total of 893 auctions reported this weekend of which 531 sold and 362 were passed in, 234 of those on a vendors bid.
This weekend last year saw 739 auctions and a clearance rate of 81 per cent reached.
Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV
Auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne over the weekend were 51.7 per cent and 54.8 per cent respectively, according to Australian Property Monitors, with many vendors withdrawing their properties before they went under the hammer.
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/money/rising...le/story-e6frfmci-1225958145835#ixzz15xUjgOG3
Didn't somebody say desperate tactics as cutting down stamp duty and developer increasing incentives are another sign of bubble bursting?
Bots, thanks to banking deregulation, total credit growth was running 10-15%pa from the early 90s until GFC, while nominal GDP rose from 5 to 7.5%pa in the same period.
From 2000 to GFC, housing credit was expanding at 15-20%pa! That's unsustainable asset price inflation in my books because the interest pmts have to be relieved from other channels, channels growing at half to a third the rate.
So when you ask is housing in a bubble, I retort has housing credit been in a bubble relative to the rest of the economy? I'd say unequivocally yes.
But bubbles don't have to burst.
They can sit inflated for years and wait for everything else to catch up. They can develop slow leaks.
They can burst in the face of an economic stressor.
In my view, flat Brisbane prices this year are entirely congruent with a bubble that lenders and/or borrowers are having difficulty inflating further. What remains to be seen is how property prices deal with an economic stressor - such as credit tighter than Joe Average could have reasonably foreseen.
Re the Glenn Stevens quote, I find it quaint that the RBA denied for years there was even the hint of a problem with house price growth. It apparently just became a problem overnight some time in March this year.
Some charts to ponder.
hello,
yeah no worries susuanW, wouldnt have a clue what you on about but oh well
great day, just another thanks to Explod for filling in over the weekend, thats what community spirit is all about, fellow man helping fellow man
thankyou
professor robots
aussie banks get 30% of their funding from overseas organisations, thats all, not much
hello,
oh yeah no worries man, here it is
bankers.asn.au
great blog on the web
thankyou
professor robots
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