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The future of Australian property prices

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robots said:
Just a reminder with all the posts, please keep in mind the title of the thread, i think we need to get some action on those posts referencing China or the USA

Thankyou
Professor robots
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Yep, and a reminder too that we are not an island and our trade with other nations is essential to our financial situation. In anticipating the direction of property prices in Austraia, it would be a fool indeed that is not focused on the entire picture.

Major General Plod

Five star (self proclaimed)
 
Today's ABS data shows priced down in five cities, and up in three, but a slight positive national figure (due mainly to strong Melbourne result). The question is what happens from here. Will Q4 be the first quarter to show a national fall. If so, that just might spook the public and falls could accelerate. But it prices rise in Q4 then the public will think the worst is over and we're back on an uptrend. Public sentiment is everything. To be honest I don't think the political will exists for more housing stimulus. Both parties are too weak, they've got more important things to think about, and frankly I'd wager they're happy with this flat result. A 'soft landing' is exactly what the RBA and government wanted to achieve, and that's what they've got here.
 
robots said:
Just a reminder with all the posts, please keep in mind the title of the thread, i think we need to get some action on those posts referencing China or the USA
Click to expand...
It's entirely relevant, probably even more so now as the market reaches liquidity saturation?

Just for the youngsters, a reminder that a similar thing happened about 25 years ago, only the people buying up all the land and properties were Japanese. Their wealth too was from liquidity induced property booms in their own country, and promptly, busted spectacularly and essentially they have not recovered since with nearly 3 decades of stagflation if not deflation.

China is no miracle - it's still the weight of printed money that keeps them afloat - when the day comes for those bubbles to pop, Australia will be the hardest hit. They are madly exchanging worthless $USD's for things of hard value like iron ore & coal, financed from trade surplus and their very own little known quantitative easing. Wherever goes China so too does Australia!
 
Quincy said:
In my region - north western Sydney - the Chinese are continuing to buy up anything that they can get their hands on.

A Chinese friend of mine tells me that many don't need to borrow and just pay cash (including + $ Million properties).
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Even if they do borrow, the interest on their loans is ridiculously low compared to here, (Hong Kong and Singapore it is less than 1%) so not much interest to worry about. What an unlevel playing field when buying a house in your own country you're competing with foreigners who have such an unfair advantage. What sort of government is this that is letting this situation continue - just appalling.
 
robots said:
RBA will enjoy seeing those figures
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Obviously not.

Interest rates up again.

Perhaps you, and your fellow academics got it wrong this time. What university is your degree from?

and what are your projections for the coming 12 months?

Can you give me some links to your published articles, so that I can see what your research interests are? I assume it is in economics.
 
Dowdy said:
And who saids our lending standard are high?!

http://melbourne.gumtree.com.au/c-Unit-House-Real-Estate-property-for-sale-No-Bank-Loan-Home-Eynesbury-W0QQAdIdZ238877603
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How do you pay no stamp duty? I thought that is basically impossible if the sale is happening? Unless you are somehow buying the land only, then some weird contractural arrangement you get a house as well down the track, (so reduced SD) but it would have to be legit to get the FHOG, so I dont get how this can work.
 
drsmith said:
And the CBA responds with some additional sign language for Joe Hockey thrown in for good measure.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...y-45bps-pd20101102-AT7E3?OpenDocument&src=rab
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I wonder if this will have much of an effect upon the 2600 or so auctions in Melbourne over the next 3 weekends.

Anyone have any predictions for the auction percentages over the next 3 weeks?

Perhaps Robots could make a prediction, I mean if he could predict the exact circumstances of the GFC, including government bailouts of the housing market, then I am sure that he can predict what will happen over the next 3 weeks.

I agree, some conned FHB will never forgive Kevin Rudd for the poisoned chalice he offered them.

I am very glad I have not purchased any property in Australia recently. I am currently in regional australia, and, man it is hurting badly.

One prediction I am prepared to make:

Over the next 6 months, we will see some builders having to discount or add "$50000 of bonus stuff" to their packages, or else they will hurt.
 
UBIQUITOUS said:
I will go for a 90% foreign buyer clearance rate.
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Our dollar may make it less appealing for them over time though.

PS

Of course it was what I meant.

Do any Australians actually purchase anything at auction anymore?

or is it overseas government subsidised stealth purchasing to recoup mineral wealth over the long term?

(I find it amazing, we dig it up, sell it to them, purchase worthless trinkets from them, then their govt purchases our properties and gain a revenue generating rent stream..... Long term wealth generation is not something that Australians consider... but at least we all have 50" plasmas... for the moment)
 
hello,

Oh gidday brothers, another great day

Just of the phone to RBA, amazing stuff, its apparrent Swan is going to have to get going on the mining tax across the board asap and add some more onto it

Should be good, great posts pretty much substantiates what the debate is all about

Thankyou
Professor robots
 
robots said:
Just of the phone to RBA, amazing stuff, its apparrent Swan is going to have to get going on the mining tax across the board asap and add some more onto it
Click to expand...

Pretty much sums up the bullyboy unionistic tactics of the labor party.

The great thing about the labor party is that when they go down, they pull everyone and everything with them.


I love bank profits. They partially come to me as dividends.

Perhaps our treasurer should advise people to purchase shares in the banks if he thinks they are earning too much money. I do however think that this is beyond his mental capacity to understand.

Instead they incentivise naive people into a bubble market and then get angry when they start to look like fools when things start to unravel.

The one thing the most bent banana bender fails to realise is that, if Australians did not have such a ridiculous dependence on the banks (which Labor helped foster) then the banks would not be such demons.

Banks rising interest rates makes no effect on many, as they have no debt.
 
hello,
Thats great medicowallet, nothing wrong with making money or is there?

Basically, the government needs to slow down WA, so introduce the tax get the companies heading offshore

Great, easy stuff
Waiting on someone from the board to call back otherwise will give them a call wednesday
Thankyou
Professor robots
 
robots said:
Just a reminder with all the posts, please keep in mind the title of the thread, i think we need to get some action on those posts referencing China or the USA
Click to expand...

lol So Australia is now a totally isolated country and its economy is completely independent of China and USA, or the rest of the world?

Trying to censor what you don't want to hear may not be the best way to tackle the debate.

Now onto interest rate, I am geninuely surprised at the rise, and also at how fast CBA announced to go even further. I certainly know the global credit cost has increased due to the renew worries with banks/government insolvencies over in Europe, but didn't expect it to go that fast.

Oh well, happy days for us.
 

You pretty much summed it up professor.

Instead of working out how to make victoria and NSW more productive, they penalise other states.

Instead of alerting people to their own foolishness, they syphon the petrol from the harvester instead of telling the children not to lie in the field at harvest time.

But, politicians are not very bright, and I'm sure nobody on ASF will disagree with me on that!!
 
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