The future of Australian property prices

Bill M · 19 June 2010

kincella said:
-
there will be plenty of astute investors buying non inner city housing, as they flee from the gambling den....
rents will keep rising, whilst we allow 1500 or more immigrants in each week to melb and sydney.....
since investors have stopped building new houses, where will all those immigrants go.....well some of the immigrants will replicate their former housing arrangements, by piling 10-12 into 2 or 3 bedroom houses
the resources tax and the most incompetent govnut in our history will dampen any incentives for investors for a couple of years, or until they are removed from office.....
10% or more growth rate will be easily achievable for the outer suburbs and the regional areas....
nothing the state govnuts are promising pre election will ever become a reality....no fast trains, no more housing or jobs.....absolutley nothing will be done to fix the current problems......until we have changes at both a state and federal level
enjoy your day, as it is now, its about as real as it can get......

Well kincella I think you are right on here. A 38 y/o mate of mine, single good job and with references is finding it extremely difficult to secure a rental unit on the Northern Beaches Sydney. He says every time he turns up for a inspection there are 20 other would be tenants all trying to get the same place, he says he might end up sharing accommodation again.

In my case I got a 12 Month contract with my new tenants at $420 a week for an 80 sqm unit. Only a one week gap from the tenant moving out to the new one moving in. Agents are quite good these days and open the unit up 1 Month before the tenants move out to secure the new ones.

As for the GFC, when the first one hit I went to several open for inspections (sales) in the Northern Beaches a great deal of buyers were older investors 50's to 70's looking for secure investments. Went for a walk about in the area the other day and there is nothing available to buy any more. With this sort of pressure on housing it will only mean prices going up.

However.... at The Central Coast (an hours drive from Sydney) you can still buy a 3 bedroom brick veneer home for 299k. Not bad and there are still some available to buy. Brand new homes can be bought for 335k, good deal with the stamp duty being axed on them.

Anyhow a couple of links for some reasonably priced housing just an hour out of Sydney.

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-hamlyn+terrace-106354176

and

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-hamlyn+terrace-106545773

UBIQUITOUS · 19 June 2010

Bill M said:
Well kincella I think you are right on here. A 38 y/o mate of mine, single good job and with references is finding it extremely difficult to secure a rental unit on the Northern Beaches Sydney. He says every time he turns up for a inspection there are 20 other would be tenants all trying to get the same place, he says he might end up sharing accommodation again.

In my case I got a 12 Month contract with my new tenants at $420 a week for an 80 sqm unit. Only a one week gap from the tenant moving out to the new one moving in. Agents are quite good these days and open the unit up 1 Month before the tenants move out to secure the new ones.

As for the GFC, when the first one hit I went to several open for inspections (sales) in the Northern Beaches a great deal of buyers were older investors 50's to 70's looking for secure investments. Went for a walk about in the area the other day and there is nothing available to buy any more. With this sort of pressure on housing it will only mean prices going up.

However.... at The Central Coast (an hours drive from Sydney) you can still buy a 3 bedroom brick veneer home for 299k. Not bad and there are still some available to buy. Brand new homes can be bought for 335k, good deal with the stamp duty being axed on them.

Anyhow a couple of links for some reasonably priced housing just an hour out of Sydney.

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-hamlyn+terrace-106354176

and

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-hamlyn+terrace-106545773

Cherry picked anecdotal 'evidence'. Yawwwnnn. It really shows how desperate things are becoming for the RE bubble cheerleaders.

Well while you're are it, I just made some up as well...ahem...I mean heard about these genuine stories. "My mate's mate just secured a rental for 50% off, and his mate bought a place for 75% off the asking price."

Bill M · 19 June 2010

UBIQUITOUS said:
Cherry picked anecdotal 'evidence'. Yawwwnnn. It really shows how desperate things are becoming for the RE bubble cheerleaders.

Well while you're are it, I just made some up as well...ahem...I mean heard about these genuine stories. "My mate's mate just secured a rental for 50% off, and his mate bought a place for 75% off the asking price."

Ubi you can believe what you like as I really don't care but I will rehash an old article from way back in 1994, it said:

"The table on this page demonstrates how far off the doom and gloom merchants were, when, as they did in 1983 and more recently in 1992, they predicted that price increases were a thing of the past. Whilst caution is wise, undue caution could see some buyers miss out on excellent opportunities."

Nothing has changed since then, the doom and gloom merchants are out there in force again. Please note in 1994 the median Sydney House Prices were 216K now it is over 600k, it has trebled. That is what everyone needs to know, the evidence is there.

explod · 19 June 2010

Bill M said:
Ubi you can believe what you like as I really don't care but I will rehash an old article from way back in 1994, it said:

"The table on this page demonstrates how far off the doom and gloom merchants were, when, as they did in 1983 and more recently in 1992, they predicted that price increases were a thing of the past. Whilst caution is wise, undue caution could see some buyers miss out on excellent opportunities."

Nothing has changed since then, the doom and gloom merchants are out there in force again. Please note in 1994 the median Sydney House Prices were 216K now it is over 600k, it has trebled. That is what everyone needs to know, the evidence is there.

What has the past got to do with the future of Australian property prices anyway. A trend that is current can give direction, no more or less. The trend has stalled so beware a bit.

Fundamentals will rule, business, jobs, tourism, exports, manufacture and on and on. They all look a bit dodgy at the moment, sooo beware a bit

On the TV news tonight a bit of alarm at a drop in clearance rates today. beware a bit

No doom and gloom in any of these statement, just beware a bit

tech/a · 19 June 2010

Nice post Bill.

Of course the "mob" cant possibly comprehend housing at $1mill (average)
or average wage $150K a year.

I remember a Pack of Smokes 80c
Now $15

I was buying 4 bedroom homes in 96 for $92K
Friends thought I was crazy. (bought 8 over 5 yrs) still have 5.

This crazy I can certainly live with.

South of Adelaide we have the freeway being expanded to 2 way
Railway line to seaford and housing still under $300K within a K of the beach.
Eastern buyers are falling over thmselves buying----
In 5 yrs you wont get anything of much value under high $400ks.
But "The Mob" wont recognise value even when its printed in front of them.

lioness · 19 June 2010

Robot and friends,

Where is the link to the clearance rates? Bit slow today.

Bill M · 19 June 2010

explod said:
No doom and gloom in any of these statement, just beware a bit

I agree explod, we all have to be careful in doing any investments.

tech/a said:
I remember a Pack of Smokes 80c
Now $15

Yeah I remember flogging my Mum and Dads smokes, anyone remember "Park and Drive"? 33c a pack.

I was buying 4 bedroom homes in 96 for $92K
Friends thought I was crazy. (bought 8 over 5 yrs) still have 5.

Well done!

I have never mentioned this before but I will now. My first house I bought was in Para Hills West (Adelaide) it was in 1978, it cost $22,750, it was a 3 bedroom double brick house. How much would that be today?

South of Adelaide we have the freeway being expanded to 2 way
Railway line to seaford and housing still under $300K within a K of the beach.
Eastern buyers are falling over thmselves buying----
In 5 yrs you wont get anything of much value under high $400ks.
But "The Mob" wont recognise value even when its printed in front of them.

Maybe I should move back there, sounds great. Adelaide is certainly progressing a lot, putting in a lot of infrastructure UNLIKE poor old Sydney with useless Governments blowing our money. Anyhow, well done tech.

robots · 19 June 2010

hello,

good day brothers, superb day and just back in

here we go:

http://www.reiv.com.au/home/inside.asp?ID=162&nav1=1226&nav2=162

fantastic 67%, great prices achieved

great result in St Kilda with 80% clearance rate (8 from 10), especially like the one on chapel st (635k) as just down from my joint

paradise

* special congratulations to the 2000 new citizens at the MCG today, well done and hope to see many more in the future (maybe 20 mil)

thankyou
professor robots

lioness · 19 June 2010

robots said:
hello,

good day brothers, superb day and just back in

here we go:

http://www.reiv.com.au/home/inside.asp?ID=162&nav1=1226&nav2=162

fantastic 67%, great prices achieved

great result in St Kilda with 80% clearance rate (8 from 10), especially like the one on chapel st (635k) as just down from my joint

paradise

* special congratulations to the 2000 new citizens at the MCG today, well done and hope to see many more in the future (maybe 20 mil)

thankyou
professor robots

Thanks robots, good to hear you are still sinking the cranskies and vodka and limes.

schnootle · 19 June 2010

tech/a said:
In 5 yrs you wont get anything of much value under high $400ks.
But "The Mob" wont recognise value even when its printed in front of them.

And if that is the case then little old Adelaide will have one of the highest median income housing multiples in the world, can any one see anything wrong with this.

robots · 20 June 2010

schnootle said:
And if that is the case then little old Adelaide will have one of the highest median income housing multiples in the world, can any one see anything wrong with this.

hello,

no, like if it doesnt suit you grab a jet to the United States of Crapola man

cheap houses, cheap guns, highest homicide rate in the world, get kitted up at Walmart, uzi's, 9mm, ak47 all of them

drive the pick-up on the highways, upsize at the drive thru

lucky the world has places like Adelaide and the rest of Australia

thankyou
professor robots

UBIQUITOUS · 20 June 2010

robots said:
hello,

no, like if it doesnt suit you grab a jet to the United States of Crapola man

cheap houses, cheap guns, highest homicide rate in the world, get kitted up at Walmart, uzi's, 9mm, ak47 all of them

thankyou
professor robots

On the subject of Crapola, can you provide evidence for all of these 'facts'?

electronicmaster · 20 June 2010

I can't wait to see what has happened to the Melbourne auctions thats taken place this weekend.

At least 1000 Houses on Auction? Housing oversupply lol

Aussiejeff · 20 June 2010

electronicmaster said:
I can't wait to see what has happened to the Melbourne auctions thats taken place this weekend.

At least 1000 Houses on Auction? Housing oversupply lol

See Robot's post #2028 above.

67% (not sure if this is for Sat ONLY or for whole week 14-19 Jun including Sat 19th, yesterday - see my underline below). Bit confusing as this is what is on the REIV website below the initial blurb.
http://www.reiv.com.au/home/inside.asp?ID=142

AUCTION RESULTS

Results are compiled by THE REAL ESTATE INSTITUTE OF VICTORIA. Agents should supply auction and private sale data to phone: 1300 858 788 or e-mail: salesresults@reiv.com.au

The results do not necessarily include all auctions held yesterday or all private sales collected during the week. Contact the agents concerned for further information.

Monday, June 14 2010 to Saturday, June 19 2010

Make of that what you will.

electronicmaster · 20 June 2010

Aussiejeff said:
See Robot's post #2028 above.

67% (not sure if this is for Sat ONLY or for whole week 14-19 Jun including Sat 19th, yesterday - see my underline below). Bit confusing as this is what is on the REIV website below the initial blurb.
http://www.reiv.com.au/home/inside.asp?ID=142

Make of that what you will.

Thanks Aussiejeff

67% yesterday vs 87% same time last year? And this is the most houses auctioned in a single weekend for some time? ok

And more to come with similar numbers next week? Nice

UBIQUITOUS · 20 June 2010

Basically, not all of the auction results are included. The REIV would claim that they aren't reported. Eventually when they do 'come in', the clearance rate is revised downwards. Have a look back at every previous month.

The conclusion is that auction results which aren't included just so happen to be mostly 'passed in' auctions, which would bring the clearance rate down, and are never mostly sales

Coincidence that month after month the revision is downwards and never upwards? NO CHANCE!!

Aussiejeff · 20 June 2010

UBIQUITOUS said:
Basically, not all of the auction results are included. The REIV would claim that they aren't reported. Eventually when they do 'come in', the clearance rate is revised downwards. Have a look back at every previous month.

The conclusion is that auction results which aren't included just so happen to be mostly 'passed in' auctions, which would bring the clearance rate down, and are never mostly sales

Coincidence that month after month the revision is downwards and never upwards? NO CHANCE!!

Seems there is an inherent problem with REIV's reporting in that they rely on agents who are asked to phone in their results. So, if some agents want to make themselves appear more successful at auctioning, they simply report only successful sales rather than pass-ins.

There doesn't seem to be any official auditing of ALL actual auction listings/sales by REIV? So it is entirely up to the agents as to what they report??

aj

robots · 20 June 2010

UBIQUITOUS said:
On the subject of Crapola, can you provide evidence for all of these 'facts'?

hello,

goto latest newspaper site, another round of shootings in a restaurant, if you reckon its wrong you pull up some facts

HIGHEST HOMICIDE RATE IN THE WORLD.

they have no respect for fellow man and the rest of the world is waking up to their irrelevance, probably caused the housing collapse over there

but hey, get over there if you like cheap housing

thankyou
professor robots

satanoperca · 20 June 2010

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_mur_percap-crime-murders-per-capita

Murders (per capita) (most recent) by country
24 - IOU's of A 0.0428 per 1000 people
43 - Ozzie Ozzie Ozzie 0.01503 per 1000 people.

Cheers

robots · 20 June 2010

hello,

thats a junk website satanoperca out of the IOU's of A,

thankyou
professor robots

The future of Australian property prices

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