explod
explod
- Joined
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And from Michael Panzer's webpage today, seems a lot of people think the Wall Street numbers are skewed. Anecdotal maybe but a groundswell of opinion from the coalface building up.
How you view today’s jobs report depends on snow.
Coming into today, many economists believed that last month’s storms on the East Coast ”” which occurred right before the Labor Department conducted its monthly jobs survey ”” would temporarily reduce employment by a significant amount. Macroeconomic Advisers, a well-regarded research firm in St. Louis, thought the effect would be between 150,000 and 220,000 jobs lost. Those jobs effectively would have disappeared in February and largely returned in March.
If the storms indeed had a big effect ”” if they cut even 100,000 jobs from payrolls ”” then today’s report counts as very good news. The economy lost only 36,000 jobs last month, far fewer than forecasters expected. That number is based on the monthly survey of businesses.
The monthly survey of households, which allows the Labor Department to calculate the unemployment rate, was even more update. The unemployment rate held steady, and the overall percentage of adults with jobs ”” which does not distinguish between officially and unofficially unemployed ”” rose slightly. All this suggests that the job market may be continuing to improve and that next month’s jobs report is likely to look very good.
But that’s not the only plausible reading of the report. It’s also possible that economists vastly overestimated the snow effect. It’s even possible the snow effect was close to zero. Here is what the Labor Department said in its report today:
In order for severe weather conditions to reduce the estimate of payroll employment, employees have to be off work for an entire pay period and not be paid for the time missed. About half of all workers in the payroll survey have a 2-week, semimonthly, or monthly pay period. Workers who received pay for any part of the reference pay period, even one hour, are counted in the February payroll employment figures. While some persons may have been off payrolls during the survey reference period, some industries, such as those dealing with cleanup and repair activities, may have added workers.
Thanks for the reply UF
I agree with you in that things have been more deflationary than anything else of late, hence my questions to explod about us being at risk of hyperinflation.
And now getting back to the question. As U/F pointed out and as indicated by pundits quoted here today, the real state of affairs is very difficult to determine.
Someone above spoke of the 30% increase in rice, my wife confirms that also. Saw on our local TV through the week on meat in Australia, beef up 20% in the last 3 months, lamb up 9% in the same period but due to tightening supply expected to increase a great deal more during the year.
However in clarification, when I think about inflation I am on about the losing value of paper money. The big demonstration of this is the rising price of gold against currencies. This week we again saw record gold prices against the Pound Stirling and the Euro. And an increase up against the Aussie and US$. We know that the US is printing money and via a back door buying their own bonds to keep it all propped, and their deficits continue to grow exponentially to fund basic needs. And one could go on.
This money dilution, like the issue of too many shares in a Comapny, must lead to a rampant loss of value and then to my mind lead into hyperinflation. Of course on the surface we do not appear to be there yet but a watchful eye should be cast and pointers as I see them will post up. All IMVH of course.
This money dilution, like the issue of too many shares in a Comapny, must lead to a rampant loss of value and then to my mind lead into hyperinflation. Of course on the surface we do not appear to be there yet but a watchful eye should be cast and pointers as I see them will post up. All IMVH of course.
explod
What to do?
Ok, we have the world's most powerful military machine, that we've spent all our wealth on, where should we use it? History is full of examples, Napoleon being one that springs to mind, Rome, being the common analogy.
jog on
duc
Take a brief intermission from the jog duc IMHO.
Buy some precious metals and keep jogging till your hearts content. JMO
Oh shucks, I'm an Index fund fan myself all the way back to the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis Days.
As long as all the participants report honestly then of course Index Funds are what we should all be looking at. Cheers for the advice duc.
Jeesus!! So now Today Tonight journalism is being used for the Bears case. Classic!! Classic Explod. Classic BS.Someone above spoke of the 30% increase in rice, my wife confirms that also. Saw on our local TV through the week on meat in Australia, beef up 20% in the last 3 months, lamb up 9% in the same period but due to tightening supply expected to increase a great deal more during the year.
Just on that hyperinflation story Explod. Since the bears case is mostly based around the US/UK/EUR/JPY losing value how you see that effecting the value of the Skippy? After all I don't buy my bread & butter in USD. And in fact I don't buy my gold in USD but rather AUD. And thats been a crap trade since March 08, really crap when you take it against "other" assets.However in clarification, when I think about inflation I am on about the losing value of paper money. The big demonstration of this is the rising price of gold against currencies. This week we again saw record gold prices against the Pound Stirling and the Euro. And an increase up against the Aussie and US$.
Anyone worth their salt will have looked at where some of those jobs lost came from and that they will become hirings next month.
(No i won't state what they were as you should know).
Jeesus!! So now Today Tonight journalism is being used for the Bears case. Classic!! Classic Explod. Classic BS.
Just on that hyperinflation story Explod. Since the bears case is mostly based around the US/UK/EUR/JPY losing value how you see that effecting the value of the Skippy? After all I don't buy my bread & butter in USD. And in fact I don't buy my gold in USD but rather AUD. And thats been a crap trade since March 08, really crap when you take it against "other" assets.
To link in with your food inflation have a look at wheat. This is in USD. In AUD its lower than what it was in 2001. LOWER.
Rice pretty much steady in AUD terms for 10 years!!!!
Well... Welcome back to those that skipped ahead! Friday's Jobs Jamboree turned out to be very interesting, after looking under the hood... According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) the U.S. lost 36,000 jobs in February, much less than what was expected (-68K), and the unemployment rate remained at 9.7%... Of course we all know that the "real unemployment rate" is 21%, it all comes back to the games people play now, every night and every day now... The most important piece of the Jobs Jamboree is the Avg. Hourly Earnings, which printed at 1.9% gain... So, those that are working are seeing some increases... Marginal increases, but still!
And... The BLS did add 97,000 jobs out of thin air, so the job losses were really -133,000... I also found it suspicious that the BLS waited some time on Friday, before posting that +97,000 adjustment... Before they did, the markets were led to believe that job losses were dwindling... Again... The games people play... It sure looks like they tried to pull a fast one on the markets... But, I'm sure it was just a technical thing... Right?
Yep, need to get off the BS and look deeper. Interesting times and oh my bullion has now doubled in value but admit been a bit slow in Auz.
Anyone worth their salt will have looked at where some of those jobs lost came from and that they will become hirings next month.
(No i won't state what they were as you should know).
Prepared to put my conclusion under scrutiny, rather than just cast conspiracy theories or quote end of the world theorists, next months report will have minimum 30,000 jobs growth and i believe it will be closer to 100,000.
Payrolls rise 162,000, best gain in three years
Excluding Census workers, U.S. payrolls rise by 114,000 in March
Anyone worth their salt will have looked at where some of those jobs lost came from and that they will become hirings next month.
(No i won't state what they were as you should know).
As someone who has no idea, it would be great if you could enlighten me a little
Seems i was a bit too conservative.
"Construction employment rose by 15,000, likely a rebound from unseasonably bad weather in February."
That's 15,000! Where did the rest come from and why?
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