The Decline of the US Dollar

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

guys believe what u want,

I am just showing and supporting evidence that is there. I see it as not very bearish you see it as bearish. that's the fun of trading.

 

[dhukka]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

i dont believe in bio fuels they aren't the best solution to the problem and in my opinion will only cause more problems.

For starters its a huge waste of food to be growing crops for fuel use and will increase the price of basic food stocks.

The environment will suffer greatly, imagine how much forest has to be cleared to cater for the amount of crops required to grow fuel for the us let alone the world. Land degradation and erosion will increase not to mention biodiversity will plummet.

Water is already a scarse resource and growing fuel crops will only use more of it and start competing with drinking water.

I believe efficiency is the main way we can reduce our fuel use right now then followed with different forms of fossile fuel such as gas and Hythane. Hythane is a natural stepping stone toward hydrogen based transport.

Fact is that climate change is not as big an issue as environmental destruction when it comes to preserving species and protecting the world. I think we would be better off saving the rainforest from clearing and burning all our coal than cutting down the forest to save some co2 emissions. We will end up with low co2 levels but no natural environment left anyways and extinctions will still happen on large scales.

Without trying to turn this into a thread about bio-fuels. I remember around twelve months ago one of the Aussie TV networks ran a story on 'peak oil.' It centred around a politician in Northern Queensland who was advocating the Queensland government make massive investments in public transport rather than the current policy of building more roads.

His saw this as urgent as oil production was set to peak at the end of this decade. He also claimed that if all the sugar-cane in Australia was used to produce ethanol for alternative fuels it would only be enough for 1 litre of petrol, per car, per week. This is all from memory so apologies in advance if I got some of that info wrong.

The peak oil debate seems to have died down a bit but I suspect it will rear it's head again given where oil is at the moment.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

Why would anyone choose not to take a trade in the meantime because of something that might happen in six months time?

I'll be looking for a capitulation that's quickly recovered before I'll believe there is a change in trend. Given the pressure on it, a capitulation is probably needed.

The other dollar index chart probably looks more bearish...

Chops,

when and how u trade is up to u, I have read your more on the intrady side of things now.

Evidence i am puting forward is that the Bear market in the US$ looks to be slowing.

that is a weekly chart chops it is the US$ its its life for many years, lol ofcorse a daily and a 4 hour look more bearish there was a rate cut it got smashed lol

daily and lesser time frames are not the bigger picture of that market, but if u trade on micro time frames then weekly monthly charts would mean nothing to your trades.

but that weekly chart has a lot to do with this tread of the US$ being dead, from what the chart show's its not that dead at all right now.

but I may be wrong and it tanks, as of right now I don't think it will.

Mark Fabber is another that thinks the US$ is also on the recovery trail but I prefer to listern to what a chart tells.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

Mark Fabber is another that thinks the US$ is also on the recovery trail but I prefer to listern to what a chart tells.

That would be a major reversal of opinion by him - do you have a link for this info?
UF

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

That would be a major reversal of opinion by him - do you have a link for this info?
UF

watched him say it on a video UF,

I am trying to find it, was very recent just around the sell off. I will try to find it and get back to u

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

Chops,


that is a weekly chart chops it is the US$ its its life for many years, lol ofcorse a daily and a 4 hour look more bearish there was a rate cut it got smashed lol

daily and lesser time frames are not the bigger picture of that market, but if u trade on micro time frames then weekly monthly charts would mean nothing to your trades.

No, what I meant was the the broader dollar index (in comparison to 30 currencies) rather than this one, (6 from memory) does not look nearly so good...

 

[dhukka]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

That would be a major reversal of opinion by him - do you have a link for this info?
UF

Marc Faber Interview

Click on the link above and scroll down to the 4th story and click on play. Faber says that he says the $US dollar going the same way as Zimbabwe but he says in the short term the $US may strengthen. He sees any strengthening of the $US dollar as an opportunity to buy gold.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

Marc Faber Interview

Click on the link above and scroll down to the 4th story and click on play. Faber says that he says the $US dollar going the same way as Zimbabwe but he says in the short term the $US may strengthen. He sees any strengthening of the $US dollar as an opportunity to buy gold.

Thanks,
Marc Faber will be on
ABC Inside Business

10:00am Sunday, 23 Sep 2007

Also showing on ABC2
- 7:30am Monday, September 24

Another regular commentary site -
http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Dr__Marc_Faber/

 

[barrett]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

Great! Thanks for the tip.

This isn't really a reversal for him, he's been saying for a while that the US dollar is the most out of favour asset in the world.

His main holdings for 2007 were gold, cash and farmland. Farmland has been going through the roof.. and the cash might yet come in handy. My portfolio has been similar but no farmland.

here is an interesting quote from truecontrarian.com:

"Historically, whenever the Fed begins to cut interest rates, it is usually the case that the U.S. dollar rises over the next several months, and sometimes for more than a year. The most obvious recent example was in 2000-2001, when the beginning of Fed rate-cut action led to a rising greenback throughout the remainder of 2000 and all the way through July 2001. Going back to the beginning of 1972, when the U.S. dollar first began to be publicly traded against other world currencies, the pattern of a rising dollar following the first Fed rate cut holds true approximately 80% of the time."

 

[dhukka]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

Interesting interview with Jim Rogers on commodities and the dollar. Click on the link and scroll down to the 6th story to see the interview.

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

So much for that USD rally... Getting another capitulation tonight.

 

[explod]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

So much for that USD rally... Getting another capitulation tonight.

It is a sorry state of affairs for the ordinary hard working people of the US and the demise unfolding now will have bad implications for us all. GWB has sold out the US to the multinational capitalists.

There will also be huge economic tensions as the dollars (now reads debt) held in large part by China will not be repaid at any where near value.

Yep gold will rise but I almost feel as a grim reaper profiting from what will be great misery to many others

 

[wayneL]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

Just imagine if the treasonous b@stards cut again.

 

[Sean K]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

Just imagine if the treasonous b@stards cut again.

Isn't this inevitable now? I'm cashing in my managed funds with direct US exposure next week.

 

[wayneL]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

Isn't this inevitable now? I'm cashing in my managed funds with direct US exposure next week.

Incredibly, there is expectations of further cuts, even as evidence of inflation mounts.

This could be what the market is pricing in now.

I would be stunned if they did, but I'm spending most of my time in a stunned condition lately.

 

[Sean K]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

Incredibly, there is expectations of further cuts, even as evidence of inflation mounts.

This could be what the market is pricing in now.

I would be stunned if they did, but I'm spending most of my time in a stunned condition lately.

Yes, you bears would be shocked with the recovery! : I think it has everyone in a daze.

What's the story??!!??

Have the markets got it completely wrong?
Is it becasue it's not that bad?
Is it because humans are more gready than fearful?

Whatever the case, the bears calling a start to the end 2 months ago (as far as stock markets go) have got it wrong perhaps.

Or, is the stock market totally out of touch with reality? I can't see that. Isn't it a measure of all things?

 

[wayneL]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

Yes, you bears would be shocked with the recovery! : I think it has everyone in a daze.

What's the story??!!??

Have the markets got it completely wrong?
Is it becasue it's not that bad?
Is it because humans are more gready than fearful?

Whatever the case, the bears calling a start to the end 2 months ago (as far as stock markets go) have got it wrong perhaps.

Or, is the stock market totally out of touch with reality? I can't see that. Isn't it a measure of all things?

The SM is not a good indicator of the health of the economy. It is only a good indicator of prevailing sentiment. So for that purpose it can be discounted.

The rally is no surprise; equity investors are obsessed with interest rate, almost to the exclusion of all other fundamentals (in the broad market sense). A cut of that magnitude was a guarantee of a rally.

However, if we look past the share market, the underlying economy is deteriorating (This is the reason The Fed thought it necessary to cut). The goings on are just behind closed doors now, so-as not to spook the punters.

The bears have not got it wrong, but the SM will do what it will. Bear in mind that the ASX is a resources dominated market. As resources go, so does the ASX. This is why it is performing strongly... take a look at metals/oil.

But the US and European markets are far more tentative, even with the rate cut. Reason - bodies will start floating to the surface sooner or later. Heck, even Goldman Sachs has joined the bear camp (on the quiet of course).

Even so Oz will probably outperform in the next 12 months, after that, all bets are off.

 

[Sean K]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

The SM is not a good indicator of the health of the economy. It is only a good indicator of prevailing sentiment. So for that purpose it can be discounted.

Is this your own strawman Wayne?

The rally is no surprise; equity investors are obsessed with interest rate, almost to the exclusion of all other fundamentals (in the broad market sense). A cut of that magnitude was a guarantee of a rally.

Yes, I agree, so does interest rates drive the SM entirely? If so, and we invest in the SM, shouldn't we be betting on this? I actually don't think they do, as you have recognised, so if the 'other factors' are so poor, why the rally? Must be because at this time all the market wants is cheaper money? Greed is good?

However, if we look past the share market, the underlying economy is deteriorating (This is the reason The Fed thought it necessary to cut). The goings on are just behind closed doors now, so-as not to spook the punters.

Since the 'intelligent' masses understand this, why are 'we' pumping our hard earned dollars into a beast destined to capitulate? Greed is good?

The bears have not got it wrong, but the SM will do what it will. Bear in mind that the ASX is a resources dominated market. As resources go, so does the ASX. This is why it is performing strongly... take a look at metals/oil.

How can the bears not have it wrong at the present moment, when the MASSES are investing their money into the SM? (unless your strawman is correct) Is it just that the bears are the smart ones? But if they are the smart ones, why have they (potentially) missed out on record share prices across particular sectors? (not saying some bears haven't taken advantage of this, just speaking generally)

But the US and European markets are far more tentative, even with the rate cut. Reason - bodies will start floating to the surface sooner or later. Heck, even Goldman Sachs has joined the bear camp (on the quiet of course).

Agreed, but aren't most people on this forum investing in the aussie market which is pumping? You are assuming a direct flow on to the Aussie market (which I anticipate) but it has not come to fruition? As you suggest - resources...??

Even so Oz will probably outperform in the next 12 months, after that, all bets are off.

Maybe but perhaps the US will get out of recession by then and the bull will kick up another gear?


When I started posting on this forum my avatar was a bear. It's my nature, and I will ALWAYS look to the downside before making a decision. However, after being a bear for so long, I've probably missed on quite a few opportunities.

Where's the answer?

Maybe somewhere in the middle?

 

[wavepicker]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

Bull or bear who cares?

When the market goes up we should be bulls and when it goes down we should be bears. Get rid of the the biases and trade the market both ways.

The market is there for only one thing, to make money from, that is all it's good for. Who cares whether it goes up or down? Who cares about the economy? The only economy that is important is OUR personal economy!
Look at it as objectively as possible, trade it both ways and let go of the biases. You will be a better off.

 

[wavepicker]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

I agree, but this is a 'traders' perspective, not a long term lay person investors game.

Most people on this forum are part time investors who are 'buy and hold', or bull market investors. Most do not day trade, or even short sell.

Maybe that's where the argument from either side fails, and is ultimately moot.

I am predominately a 'bullmarket, buy and hold' investor (even though some will have a different persepective) so my argument may always be skewed in that direction.

That' fair enough, depends on ones approach/goals.
If one is a buy and holder, they are forever a bull and need to have the patience to ride out all the pot holes along the way or at least he some type of hedge.

Having said that, given that this has been such a strong bull over the last 4 years, most are expecting to see a continuation of the same, and any deviation from this can hit them very hard psychologically if they are not prepared for it.

This is very evident here on this forum every time we have a correction by the types of posts that are made. You can see the emotion in the posts. I hate see what it will be like when we get a lower high or a deeper correction.