The Decline of the US Dollar

[wayneL]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

I think the article will be proved totally wrong, and within a few years at most.
Oil will jump well over $150 by 2010, or 2011 at the latest.
Oil will almost definitely hit $100 next year.
Of course the knives will be out because "predictions" are just that.
However, if I am wrong, it will more likely be that oil will no longer be denominated in the debased US dollar, than any other factor.
Tonight the euro was costing over $1.40 for the first time.
The euro looks more and more stable against the greenback, and Central Banks will be looking for greater certainty of "value" than is now offered by the USD.
I don't know how the guard gets changed, but for the time being the Americans are looking somewhat naked, and getting cast out in the cold.
We need to listen out for that sneeze - it's surely acoming.

Incredible, but true.

The latest interest rate decision implies that they don't even care about the dollar. They could have gotten away with a .25 % cut and apart from short term liquidity and sentiment issues, .5% will not help them.

I think the yanks are losing control. I wish I could live another hundred years, because it will sure be interesting if they survive as the No. 1 economic superpower.

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

I think the article will be proved totally wrong, and within a few years at most.
Oil will jump well over $150 by 2010, or 2011 at the latest.
Oil will almost definitely hit $100 next year.
Of course the knives will be out because "predictions" are just that.
However, if I am wrong, it will more likely be that oil will no longer be denominated in the debased US dollar, than any other factor.
Tonight the euro was costing over $1.40 for the first time.
The euro looks more and more stable against the greenback, and Central Banks will be looking for greater certainty of "value" than is now offered by the USD.
I don't know how the guard gets changed, but for the time being the Americans are looking somewhat naked, and getting cast out in the cold.
We need to listen out for that sneeze - it's surely acoming.

Hard to disagree with oil above $100. Just to get to its inflation adjusted all time price it needs to be over 100 for starters. So the market has never even factored in peak oil. And well... we saw what happened at the point of realisation when peak oil was reached for the US in the 70s.

By the way, the US open couldn't stop gold and the USD tonight:

 

[Sean K]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

I think the yanks are losing control. I wish I could live another hundred years, because it will sure be interesting if they survive as the No. 1 economic superpower.

I don't think we'll have to live another 100 years Wayne. I think we'll see the transition in our life time.

Well, those of us under 50 anyway.

 

[wayneL]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

I don't think we'll have to live another 100 years Wayne. I think we'll see the transition in our life time.

Well, those of us under 50 anyway.

I'm just trying to decide whether to learn Urdu or Mandarin.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

I'm just trying to decide whether to learn Urdu or Mandarin.

English will be fine. More Chinese speak it than Americans. Koreans have better vocabulary than most natives. The Japanese can only read it, terrible speakers(communicators). Indians speak English. The reality is languages such as Chinese and Urdu etc are not practical to learn nor use. English is far easier than many languages and will continue as the main language. Spanish, French, German are satellite languages of influence and are easier to learn. Having a common script helps.

私の意見です。どちらが一番簡単ですか。(My opinon. Which is the easiest?)
As you can see roman script is easier, though I can read the above and wrote it to highlight it's difficulty.

 

[wayneL]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

English will be fine. More Chinese speak it than Americans. Koreans have better vocabulary than most natives. The Japanese can only read it, terrible speakers(communicators). Indians speak English. The reality is languages such as Chinese and Urdu etc are not practical to learn nor use. English is far easier than many languages and will continue as the main language. Spanish, French, German are satellite languages of influence and are easier to learn. Having a common script helps.

Well, I speak (very bad) German, and know all the swear words in French, Spanish and Greek. So I guess I'll struggle by OK.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

Well, I speak (very bad) German, and know all the swear words in French, Spanish and Greek. So I guess I'll struggle by OK.

Das ist gut!

 

[dhukka]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

I think the article will be proved totally wrong, and within a few years at most.
Oil will jump well over $150 by 2010, or 2011 at the latest.
Oil will almost definitely hit $100 next year.
Of course the knives will be out because "predictions" are just that.
However, if I am wrong, it will more likely be that oil will no longer be denominated in the debased US dollar, than any other factor.
Tonight the euro was costing over $1.40 for the first time.
The euro looks more and more stable against the greenback, and Central Banks will be looking for greater certainty of "value" than is now offered by the USD.
I don't know how the guard gets changed, but for the time being the Americans are looking somewhat naked, and getting cast out in the cold.
We need to listen out for that sneeze - it's surely acoming.

Saw a guy on bubble-vision the other day predciting that Oil prices will spike in the short term (ie. this year) but come down next year as a greater supply of feedstock for alternative fuels comes online. I think the numbers at the moment were that alternative fuels account for 4 1/2% of fuel sources in the US but will jump to 9% by the end of next year putting a cap on oil demand.

Don't know if I buy the alternative fuels riding to the rescue story just yet. Problem there is of course that feedstock prices have also jumped making the inputs in the process for alternative fuels much more expensive. Natural Fuels (ASX.NFL) has suffered because of this - possibly the worst IPO in the last year? listed at $1.50 and now sitting at $0.275.

But I digress, in the short term a weak $USD means higher prices at the pump. The last thing that struggling US consumers need right now.

 

[KIWIKARLOS]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

In regards to the cost and availability of oil i dont think most people realise how dependant we are on the stuff. When the cost of oil increases its not just petrol prices that go up.

Oil is used as the main component of plastics which makes up alot of our "cheap" consumables. Not to mention that fertilizers based from oil make up a huge part of the agricultural industry.

So the cost of growing the food, packaging the food and then moving it to woolies all goes up :

The US dollar is cactus now the aussie dollar is going strong and correct me if im wrong has even outperformed against the euro lately. Who knows maybe the AUS dollar will become the worlds new reserve currency. We'll have to start making our coins from Iron and uranium

 

[KIWIKARLOS]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

Hey Dhukka in regards to bio fuels etc. With the cost of food "wheat esp" and oil based fertilisers increasing the bios will prob become just as if not more expensive in future

 

[Aussiejeff]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

I don't think we'll have to live another 100 years Wayne. I think we'll see the transition in our life time.

Well, those of us under 50 anyway.

Drat! I'm 56 so that counts me out

Have fun then, young'uns

AJ

PS: I heard today that the Canadian "Loonie" is now past parity with the Yankee "Doler". Go the Mounties & Lumberjacks!!

 

[Sean K]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

Drat! I'm 56 so that counts me out

You might scrape in Jeff. LOL

 

[dhukka]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

Hey Dhukka in regards to bio fuels etc. With the cost of food "wheat esp" and oil based fertilisers increasing the bios will prob become just as if not more expensive in future

Yeah my point exactly, the commodity I was thinking of was corn which rose another 3% in Chicago overnight.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

Alternative fuels from wheat etc have been investigated at length by the US. Expect more in the future on this topic. Oil will be a thing of the past.

 

[KIWIKARLOS]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

i dont believe in bio fuels they aren't the best solution to the problem and in my opinion will only cause more problems.

For starters its a huge waste of food to be growing crops for fuel use and will increase the price of basic food stocks.

The environment will suffer greatly, imagine how much forest has to be cleared to cater for the amount of crops required to grow fuel for the us let alone the world. Land degradation and erosion will increase not to mention biodiversity will plummet.

Water is already a scarse resource and growing fuel crops will only use more of it and start competing with drinking water.

I believe efficiency is the main way we can reduce our fuel use right now then followed with different forms of fossile fuel such as gas and Hythane. Hythane is a natural stepping stone toward hydrogen based transport.

Fact is that climate change is not as big an issue as environmental destruction when it comes to preserving species and protecting the world. I think we would be better off saving the rainforest from clearing and burning all our coal than cutting down the forest to save some co2 emissions. We will end up with low co2 levels but no natural environment left anyways and extinctions will still happen on large scales.

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

Yeah my point exactly, the commodity I was thinking of was corn which rose another 3% in Chicago overnight.

Yeah, before the latest food price hike, from what I've read biofuels were only break even at about US $70 a barrel. That's why it couldn't stay below there. Hell knows what the break even price is now. I think the yanks just have to accept >$70 oil... and probably more... until it's gone I'd say.

 

[KIWIKARLOS]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

Also oil may be running out but coal can be converted into diesel fuel and Wyoming has enough coal to produce diesel for 100 years for US supply. The drawback is ecological, they would have to dig up huge amounts of land plus the old co2 thing.

Anyone seen the doco "the great global warming farce"? bit off topic:

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

I am backing up Wavepickers comments about the US$ not dying but quite the oppersite it could make a dramatic come back in the near future. we could be talking 1-3 years here not 6 months! (Chops)

Have a look at the chart below the US$ is in a creeping trend now.

Notice a pattern is now starting to form, a downwards pointing diagonal which is still in formation not 100% complete by any means. but's its there normally this pattern has bullish ramification's. So I for one am not leaning on the side of the US$ is dead I am starting to think its in early stages of accumulation.

See Chart:


Good trading

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

I am backing up Wavepickers comments about the US$ not dying but quite the oppersite it could make a dramatic come back in the near future. we could be talking 1-3 years here not 6 months! (Chops)

Why would anyone choose not to take a trade in the meantime because of something that might happen in six months time?

I'll be looking for a capitulation that's quickly recovered before I'll believe there is a change in trend. Given the pressure on it, a capitulation is probably needed.

The other dollar index chart probably looks more bearish...

 

[rederob]

Re: The Death of the Dollar

I am backing up Wavepickers comments about the US$ not dying but quite the oppersite it could make a dramatic come back in the near future. we could be talking 1-3 years here not 6 months! (Chops)

Have a look at the chart below the US$ is in a creeping trend now.

Notice a pattern is now starting to form, a downwards pointing diagonal which is still in formation not 100% complete by any means. but's its there normally this pattern has bullish ramification's. So I for one am not leaning on the side of the US$ is dead I am starting to think its in early stages of accumulation.
See Chart:
Good trading

Dead cats bounce.
I expect the greenback has as many lives as a cat.
Wayne, can you please count the "bounces" so far - tell us when we get to 9.
Cheers