The Crash of 05

TheAnalyst · 13 November 2005

Re: The Crash of 06

wavepicker said:
Chiken,

It all depends as what you define as a correction and a crash. There are crashes that happen in 2-5 days such as the crashes of 29 and 87. Then there is a slow ratchetting bear market that can last for years, which can also be defined as a crash(bear market of the 1970's). Technically speaking however, a crash is defined as a decline in prices of 15% or greater.

It seems to me that certain bulls who permeate these forums who will not be named (they know who they are), some of whom have a professional financial status(although one wonders who on earth gave them the license to give financial advice) They think the share market, property market , etc have only has one direction.-UP

These people have either not been trading for long or have very short memories(It was just 2 years ago we finished a 23% crash in the ASX). In my opinion, the best of the gains of this market are well and truly over. Retail investors who are over invested and Instos that have high asset allocations toward the market are at best chasing a probable 5% gain and risking 25% fall. I thought the market was about buying low and selling high; or is it perhaps , buy high and selling a little higher Or selling lower? Where is the value in this market now?

In so far as Robert Prechter goes, in my opinion the man is one of the best technical analysts and financial authors on the face of this planet. Back in 1978 while the DJIA and most of the other world markets had been in a bear market for 10 years, he was a lone bull on Wall st. He predicted the biggest bull market in history was about to start(when 90% of Analysts were bearish. He then predicted the crash of 87 within a week of it taking place. Sure he has not been 100% recently(and who ever is consistantly accurate anyway!!). But you forget he is also correct because the DJIA is still in the bear market that started in December of 2000. The only difference is that the down trend will pick up speed next year.

It's not a matter of IF the market will CRASH, CORRECT > 15%, HAVE LONG BEAR MARKET, but when. All you have to do is look behind you, because when it does come it will not be correcting the gains we have had the last 2 years,5 years or even 10 years, rather it will be correcting the gains that have been made since 1982, which will make it a 7-10 year bear market when it finally does start. And 90% of people (that includes professionals) will stay invested during that period, and the other 10% will make $$ at their expense.

What economic event do you think will trigger this event? Or do you think it could be a range of events that will trigger this event?

If interest rates were to go up a lot and suddenly and then remain this would of course cause share prices to decrease until they actually produced a yield that was above the short term and long term interest rate on just straight cash in the bank or term deposites and bonds. As investors would jump into these investments to stop the devaluing impact of inflation on their capital, so they would quickly sell shares to beat a decrease in capital. On top of this higher interest rates would stifle or hider micro business economic growth and of course company earnings.

This would be a bear market at present as international borders for investors decrease and dereualation for companies to operate in other countries that they would not normally have been able to in past times helps off set this type of effect.

What we must look at is what would cause high inflation and therefore a higher interest rate that would have a decreasing effect on equity markets e.g. energy costs, other recourse costs

We can say we will have a bear market but why has it been deferred for a while or is it just that the U.S. markets have been marking time and have not been in depression. Also the world and especially Western countries like Australia have learnt and placed mechanisms in place that allow its central banks to respond and warn about economic dangers a lot faster than in previouse times as I believe this has also helped deffer bear markets and also investor eduacation has also helped where as the average investor today is more aware of how the markets operate and what signds to be weary of before buying and seling equities as has not been the case of times past.

Smurf1976 · 13 November 2005

Re: The Crash of 06

TheAnalyst said:
What economic event do you think will trigger this event? Or do you think it could be a range of events that will trigger this event?

Four things come immediately to mind.

1. The real estate bubble which is now deflating slowly in some parts of the world (Sydney, Hobart, UK, anecdotal reports from the US) and crashing in parts of New Zealand (appartment prices in Auckland are reported to be down in the order of 35% and still falling).

2. The very high level of consumer debt. In the absence of rapid wage growth and with the ending of the real estate boom I doubt very much that consumers will be willing to continue taking on more debt. They may even start paying it back. The IR reforms may add to a feeling of unease over high debt levels. Will some sell stocks in order to repay debt?

3. Worldwide oil production is maxed out.

4. The US seems rather determined to defend their currency after the plunge of the past few years. Given the near-crisis nature of the falls a year ago I think that they have either decided themselves to defend the Dollar at all costs or, more likely, been told by the IMF and other central banks etc. If that's correct then we could see US interest rates going far higher than is commonly expected.

All just my opinion and not advice etc.

wayneL · 13 November 2005

What economic event caused the '29 crash? ...the '87 crash?

The crash followed an alleged speculative boom that had taken hold in the late 1920s, which had led millions of Americans to invest heavily in the stock market.

This investment drove share prices up to artificially high levels; the rising share prices encouraged more people to invest, as they hoped the shares would rise further, thus fueling further rises, and creating an economic bubble. The banks lent heavily to fund this share-buying spree. On October 24, 1929 (with the Dow Jones Industrial Average market index just off its peak from September 3rd at 381.17), the bubble finally burst and panic selling set in. Thirteen million shares were sold in the space of one day, as people desperately tried to dispose of their shares before they became worthless.

Over the following few days another thirty million shares were sold, and share prices collapsed, ruining millions of investors.

The banks which had lent heavily to fund share buying found themselves saddled with debt, which caused many banks to fail.

While millions of people lost their savings, businesses lost their credit lines and were forced to close, causing massive unemployment.

I don't know about you all, but I see a pattern

happytrader · 13 November 2005

Whatever way the market moves just make sure you're moving with it.

Cheers
Happytrader

TheAnalyst · 13 November 2005

wayneL said:
What economic event caused the '29 crash? ...the '87 crash?

I don't know about you all, but I see a pattern

Which stocks in the ASX do you see as overvalued and above fundamental stock pricing?

And if so, where is the heavy debt issue? Shares or property

wavepicker · 13 November 2005

Re: The Crash of 06

TheAnalyst said:
What economic event do you think will trigger this event? Or do you think it could be a range of events that will trigger this event?

If interest rates were to go up a lot and suddenly and then remain this would of course cause share prices to decrease until they actually produced a yield that was above the short term and long term interest rate on just straight cash in the bank or term deposites and bonds. As investors would jump into these investments to stop the devaluing impact of inflation on their capital, so they would quickly sell shares to beat a decrease in capital. On top of this higher interest rates would stifle or hider micro business economic growth and of course company earnings.

This would be a bear market at present as international borders for investors decrease and dereualation for companies to operate in other countries that they would not normally have been able to in past times helps off set this type of effect.

What we must look at is what would cause high inflation and therefore a higher interest rate that would have a decreasing effect on equity markets e.g. energy costs, other recourse costs

We can say we will have a bear market but why has it been deferred for a while or is it just that the U.S. markets have been marking time and have not been in depression. Also the world and especially Western countries like Australia have learnt and placed mechanisms in place that allow its central banks to respond and warn about economic dangers a lot faster than in previouse times as I believe this has also helped deffer bear markets and also investor eduacation has also helped where as the average investor today is more aware of how the markets operate and what signds to be weary of before buying and seling equities as has not been the case of times past.

Analyst,

Personally I don't think any event will trigger a change in trend. If it's going to happen, it's gonna happen anyway!! When it does happen the trend change will be both mechanical and psychological. After all the uptrend is psychological why not the downtrend. It's quite strange, in the evening news we see financial journalists trying to justify what the market did that day. In many cases the market would have probably moved the way it did anyway.
Now just imagine I had a crystal ball and could foretell the direction of oil, interest rates, our deficit, geopolotical events, you name it; for say the next 2 years. If I gave you that information, then you or anyone else, probably would still not be able to come up with a logical conclusion as to what the market will do or where to put your money . There have been instances in history when the news has caused the market to be both up a lot or down a lot. If you overlayed a long term historical chart of oil, interest rates,the defecit etc over a stock chart, you will quickly see these have absolutely no correlation with the stock market( maybe over the shorterm ok)
One has to understand that the what causes the market to move is both internal and dynamic.
At the end of the day what it reaaly boils down to is to decide which way the market is trending, to stay with that trend (either up or down) for as long as possible, and lastly to determine ways of telling us when that trend is at risk of changing. That is reality and what the market is doing. Personally I think the market is a leading indicator of the economy, not the other way around.

In so far as central banks and the like being able to repond more efficiently to economic changes, well that may be true. But they cannot alter the direction of the market or predict the stock market. All you have to do is look at 500 years of stock charts and it is plainly obvious they all look similiar. They have always ended in bust at some point. This tells us one thing, that human nature has not changed, and that people are people so that emotional hope, fear,and greed is what drives the markets, and these traits have and never will change in the human physiological makeup.. People will make the same mistakes today as there forefathers did.

johnno261 · 13 November 2005

wayneL said:
What economic event caused the '29 crash? ...the '87 crash?

I don't know about you all, but I see a pattern

Reinforce your SCARY pattern WayneL and feel us in with whats going on!!

TheAnalyst · 13 November 2005

Re: The Crash of 06

wavepicker said:
Analyst,

Personally I don't think any event will trigger a change in trend. If it's going to happen, it's gonna happen anyway!! When it does happen the trend change will be both mechanical and psychological. After all the uptrend is psychological why not the downtrend. It's quite strange, in the evening news we see financial journalists trying to justify what the market did that day. In many cases the market would have probably moved the way it did anyway.
Now just imagine I had a crystal ball and could foretell the direction of oil, interest rates, our deficit, geopolotical events, you name it; for say the next 2 years. If I gave you that information, then you or anyone else, probably would still not be able to come up with a logical conclusion as to what the market will do or where to put your money . There have been instances in history when the news has caused the market to be both up a lot or down a lot. If you overlayed a long term historical chart of oil, interest rates,the defecit etc over a stock chart, you will quickly see these have absolutely no correlation with the stock market( maybe over the shorterm ok)
One has to understand that the what causes the market to move is both internal and dynamic.
At the end of the day what it reaaly boils down to is to decide which way the market is trending, to stay with that trend (either up or down) for as long as possible, and lastly to determine ways of telling us when that trend is at risk of changing. That is reality and what the market is doing. Personally I think the market is a leading indicator of the economy, not the other way around.

In so far as central banks and the like being able to repond more efficiently to economic changes, well that may be true. But they cannot alter the direction of the market or predict the stock market. All you have to do is look at 500 years of stock charts and it is plainly obvious they all look similiar. They have always ended in bust at some point. This tells us one thing, that human nature has not changed, and that people are people so that emotional hope, fear,and greed is what drives the markets, and these traits have and never will change in the human physiological makeup.. People will make the same mistakes today as there forefathers did.

Hi Johhno

The "29" and "87" crashes were all triggered by certian events and because certian investors did not have in place risk management processes for sharemarket investing and borrowing risk scenarios the market falls became compounded.

A person who invests in the stockmarket therefore must say in a worst scenario what can I accept in terms of volitility and can i cope with what may happen?

Is the ASX overpriced is what I ask and if so which individual stocks are over priced?

Refer to the dot com crash and look at why it crashed? P/E and P/E

johnno261 · 13 November 2005

Re: The Crash of 06

TheAnalyst said:
Hi Johhno

The "29" and "87" crashes were all triggered by certian events and because certian investors did not have in place risk management prrocesses for sharemarket investing and borrowing risk scenarios the market falls became compounded.

A person who invests in the stockmarket therefore must say in a worst scenario what can i accept in terms of volitility and can i cope with what may happen.

Is the ASX overpriced is what i ask and if so which individual stocks are over priced?

Refer to the dot com crash and look at why it crashed? P/E and P/E

To ask the question, "is the ASX overvalued?", is like asking are there too many stars in the sky? I have heavy investments in the ASX therefore I think not as yet !!!!! Even if it was very undervalued and the DJIA fell, are you saying we would be safe?

TheAnalyst · 13 November 2005

Re: The Crash of 06

johnno261 said:
To ask the question, "is the ASX overvalued?", is like asking are there too many stars in the sky? I have heavy investments in the ASX therefore I think not as yet !!!!! Even if it was very undervalued and the DJIA fell, are you saying we would be safe?

By being over weight in undervalued stocks would offer some form of insurance and then you have to look at the economic climate and say which areas are doing extremly well at the moment such as rescource stocks and then ask the question what would cause these to fall?

At the moment i only have $1500 in the market and that is in equity call warrants and maybe by Wednesday I will add another $1500 into some other equity call warrants. Which ones do you think I may be looking at?

johnno261 · 13 November 2005

Re: The Crash of 06

TheAnalyst said:
By being over weight in undervalued stocks would offer some form of insurance and then you have to look at the economic climate and say which areas are doing extremly well at the moment such as rescource stocks and then ask the question what would cause these to fall?

At the moment i only have $1500 in the market and that is in equity call warrants and maybe by Wednesday I will add another $1500 into some other equity call warrants. Which ones do you think I may be looking at?

..........?

TheAnalyst · 13 November 2005

Re: The Crash of 06

johnno261 said:
..........?

The price of iron ore is historically very high at the moment and is getting sensitive to affordability and the cost of fuel. It actually is so highly priced that the actual steel producers and processors are complaining to the suppliers because it is effecting their margins and there is a build up of steel stockpiles putting more pressure on demand.

Actually this is one of the reasons for the drop in bluescope steels share price of late and warranted a profit down grade from the company its self they actualy have the great oppurtunity to improve their profits from a decrease of the iron ore price and are putting pressure on suppliers to reduce it. There share price dropped below what it should be worth even with the profit downgrade. Bluescope steel equity call warrants and installment warrants are readily available but not MGX.

happytrader · 13 November 2005

As I recall prior to the 87 crash fantastic gains were made. Many stocks had doubled in less than a year. There was ample time and opportunity to start taking some money off the table. Realistic people did just that. Lots of us got caught but I mean we really couldn't complain too much because we'd pocketed some fantastic realitively quick profits. After the crash I could'nt believe the cheap luxury cars and properties. Then to top that off building societies and banks were offering 17% per annum to borrow your cash. After that it was a great time to jump back into the market. I saw first hand how with a crash or crises came the opportunity to redeem yourself. To remain caught up in the emotion with your focus on the hurt and loss you would not have seen your redemption. In the crash of 87 no one I knew could reach their broker. In this day of online trading I reckon it will be really interesting to see how it is all played out.

Cheers
Happytrader

Smurf1976 · 13 November 2005

The way I see it, when the general public becomes heavily involved in any market then that is a warning sign. And amber light.

When banks start lending heavily to the public in order that the public may increase their already high investment in a particular asset class then to me that screams "bubble". A red light.

And the final confirmation comes when discussion about this particular asset class / market becomes a mainstream topic of social conversation. When it becomes socially acceptable to boast that you bought in at the right time and have made a fortune simply because most of those around you are likewise in the same market. (So there's not many left to buy - game over for the market.) When learning about or pondering the market becomes regarded as a form of leisure or entertainment rather than a serious business. This is the red light complete with sirens, flags and flashing neon sign.

I'll leave it to you to guess which market I have in mind right now but it shouldn't be hard to work out.

(All the above is my opinion only and not advice. I could be wrong.)

Smurf1976 · 13 November 2005

happytrader said:
In the crash of 87 no one I knew could reach their broker. In this day of online trading I reckon it will be really interesting to see how it is all played out.

I think that if we get a 1929 / 1987 style crash then you won't even be able to get to the first page of your broker's website except perhaps at 3am the following morning. As for placing an order when the market is open - forget it IMO.

The reason for saying this is that I would expect the broker's websites have reasonably limited capacity that is adequate for the normally busy days with only a modest margin above that. A crash would simply swamp their capacity.

It's much the same with other systems. For example, electricity, phones, internet service providers, gas, water, traffic all work on the principle that not all potential users will actually make maximum use of the service at the same time. We won't all have the oven and clothes dryer running and be doing some welding at the same time and we won't all pick up the phone at once. If it did happen then these systems simply can not cope and the best case is that some customers still have supply. Worst case is the whole thing collapses. I very much expect that brokers would be in exactly the same situation and, if anything, are less robust than most of these systems.

Just look what happens when the airlines announce cheap fares. With a bit of luck you might be able to book at 3am but realistically both phones and internet are swamped by demand. Pure luck if you get straight through.

In my opinion the defining feature of any crash is that it is just not possible for most people to get out of the market. They can't get through to brokers etc. and even if they could market liquidity has dried up anyway so at best they'll be selling very cheaply.

el_ninj0 · 13 November 2005

Smurf1976 said:
It's much the same with other systems. For example, electricity, phones, internet service providers, gas, water, traffic all work on the principle that not all potential users will actually make maximum use of the service at the same time. We won't all have the oven and clothes dryer running and be doing some welding at the same time and we won't all pick up the phone at once. If it did happen then these systems simply can not cope and the best case is that some customers still have supply. Worst case is the whole thing collapses. I very much expect that brokers would be in exactly the same situation and, if anything, are less robust than most of these systems.

You are on the right track there Smurt, and im sure for the first 30 mins or so, that would be the case. But as someone with indepth knowledge of how isp's and web servers work, i know that the problem would be resolved within a matter of hours at most. I have no doubt the entire system would crash to begin with, to get technical, a Denial of Service(DoS) attack is what it would be called.

But major brokerage firms such as comsec, nab, westpac would have virtually unlimited capacity through fiber cables that they could light up at any time they wish, as would the ASX. Plus they also have redundancy in their systems, otherwise their IT crews would be shot.

wayneL · 14 November 2005

Smurf1976 said:
I'll leave it to you to guess which market I have in mind right now but it shouldn't be hard to work out.

Some headlines from my friend at: http://www.moneyfiles.org/temp.html

ALL ROADS LEAD DOWN

ohh and by the way, Fannie Mae disclosed new accounting errors and confirmed it will have to restate earnings by some $11 billion. Its shares fell more than 2%. Did you know that Canadian housing starts fall 10% ? Strange isnt it? Now talking of education, after reading the artcile below, I am sure you will have understood that **higher education is a scam sold to the American public**. why are tutions going up? Because colleges and schools know that people will get a loans easily to pay their studies. So, how easy to raise tuitions yearly and endlessly. Yet today people find normal to pay so much for them. They are unwillingly participating in the debt-ponzi-orgy scheme and of course will be soon left holding the bag.

(11/11) Why young Americans are drowning in debt
Saddled with college loans and credit card debts at a time when the job market is tight, they may be the most indebted generation of young Americans ever.Recently, when Beth O'Connell ordered several books from Amazon.com, she received a distressing surprise: She had hit the limit on her credit card. Sorry, no books.

"This is my first maxing out," explains O'Connell, a publicist in Watertown, Mass., who graduated from Boston University three years ago. "I think I'm making decent money, but it's just not enough with all the bills I pay. It's not like I'm going out shopping and doing crazy things. I'm just trying to get by."

Trying to get by. Those four little words echo plaintively around the country as young adults struggle to get established and stay afloat. Saddled with record-high college loans and credit card debts at a time when wages are stagnant and the job market is tight, they may be the most indebted generation of young Americans ever...... Higher tuition and housing costs
"These young adults are doing everything society tells them to do," says Tamara Draut, coauthor of a new study, "Generation Broke: The Growth of Debt Among Young Americans," published by Demos, a public-policy group in New York. "They're going to college, taking on tremendous student-loan debt, and working longer hours than ever before while in college. When they get in the real world, they can't get ahead because of the debt they went into to get the degree to get the good job." Credit card interest out of control?......
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/CollegeandFamily/Moneyinyour20s/P101676.asp

AND
RELATED ARTICLE:
"Generation Broke: The Growth of Debt Among Young Americans," published by Demos, a public-policy group in New York.
http://www.demos-usa.org/pubs/Generation_Broke.pdf

AND
November 12, 2005 | Housing market closing doors, and recession lurks, experts say Federal government may end up holding mortgages, pensions Much of the nation has had a lovely real-estate boom for the past five years, but the house party is almost over and the cleanup won't be pretty.

That's the word from economists and investors who have watched housing prices march ever higher. "The collapse of the housing bubble will throw the economy into a recession, and quite likely a severe recession," warned a July report by the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

In recent weeks, many major investment companies have concurred. A Lehman Brothers report said, "(A) turn in the housing market is central to our economic forecast." "The demographic story behind the housing-market boom, as we always thought, was a giant hoax," wrote Merrill Lynch & Co.'s North American Economist, David Rosenberg, in a recent report..... A final nightmare scenario: A federal bailout of the mortgage market is likely if housing crashes, the center predicts. So, if corporate pension funds continue to falter and this dire prediction does come true, the Feds could conceivably be holding your mortgage and your pension..... Others point to simple supply and demand. Bubbles have their own psychology - a neighbor tells you at a party that her house has tripled in value and you feel like an idiot for renting - but supply and demand operates on logic, which has to kick in at some point......

One problem is affordability. Affordability for first-time home buyers is the worst it has been in 20 years, which brings to mind an old parable about the stock market. A woman buys up a company's stock, driving up the price as she goes. Eventually, she tells her broker to sell.

His response: "To whom?"

"House prices are at the mountain top," Zandi said. "All roads lead down. It's just a question of how steeply."
http://www.journalnow.com/servlet/S...SJ_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1128768101812

AND
RELATED ARTICLE
(11/09) Will a Bursting Bubble Trouble Bernanke?
http://www.cepr.net/publications/housing_bubble_2005_11.pdf

AND DO NOT EVER THINK THE PREDCITIONS ARE BETTER ABROAD...

(11/10) UK: All policy payouts will fail to cover mortgage commitments
THE takeover boom may be driving up share prices, but millions of homeowners are likely to see the shortfalls on their endowment policies become an even greater problem. Research by Money Management magazine shows that payouts from policies are continuing to fall as insurance companies try to repair the damage done to their reserves during the collapse in share prices from 2000 to 2002......
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8209-1856187,00.html

AND
(11/10) They cut $36bn in spending on the country's working poor, they give the wealthy $70bn more in tax breaks
..... The House's proposed budget cuts are especially callous: cutting medical benefits for 6-million poor children, removing food stamps to 225,000 working families, eliminating child-care for 330,000 poor children whose parents work. But Rep. John Boehner, R-Ohio, told his colleagues the financial picture is bleak: "The fact is, our country is going broke. We're spending money we don't have and passing it onto our kids, and at some point, somebody's got to say, "Enough's enough.' "

Boehner's right. People will have to sacrifice to bring the deficit under control, but it's hard to make a case for asking poor people to pay more when rich people are paying less.......
http://www.sptimes.com/2005/11/06/Opinion/Let_them_eat_pork.shtml

AND IN CASE YOU MISSED IT...

(11/11) VIDEO: Still trust Banks,Brokers and Analysts? WORSE then the Mob
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/wallstreet/view/

PREDATORS LURKING EVERYWHERE, THIS HAPPENS EVERYWHERE NOT JUST IN NZ

(11/09) Why are staff paid incentives to get customers into more debt, and why is it if they don't sell enough their job can be threatened?
..... Finsec, the union for finance workers, agrees with the Reserve Bank Governor who last week argued that banks are pressuring inflation through their lending practices. The major banks are driving inflation and attempting to grow their market share by imposing ever increasing sales targets on their staff......
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU0511/S00165.htm

AND AS A REMINDER:

Fun TRUE story behind "Wizard of Oz!" (2002)

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/stott041502.html
AND
http://www.mayanmajix.com/art377.html

AND SOMETHING TO CHEW ON...
The Myth of a 'Social Contract'
http://www.strike-the-root.com/52/davies/davies7.html

MANY MORE HEADLINES ON:
http://www.moneyfiles.org/temp.html

TheAnalyst · 22 January 2006

Anyone got an opinion if there will be a crash tommorrow?

Would like to see a bit of input here

Jay-684 · 22 January 2006

TheAnalyst said:
Anyone got an opinion if there will be a crash tommorrow?

Would like to see a bit of input here

papers are predicting a drop of 50 points, but still a relatively positive outlook from what I've read.

tomorrow could be a buying opportunity IMO

wayneL · 22 January 2006

TheAnalyst said:
Anyone got an opinion if there will be a crash tommorrow?

Would like to see a bit of input here

The ASX won't crash without the US crashing first...and we're a long way off that.

There is some expectation that the PPT will step in next week to prop up the market if the silly dip buyers don't do so.

Some pass off the PPT as a myth, but its fair dinkum as this article proves:

http://www.jasmts.com/library.php?page=protection

The Crash of 05

TheAnalyst

Smurf1976

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

happytrader

TheAnalyst

wavepicker

johnno261

TheAnalyst

johnno261

TheAnalyst

johnno261

TheAnalyst

happytrader

Smurf1976

Smurf1976

el_ninj0

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

TheAnalyst

Jay-684

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

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