The Crash of 05

[johnno261]

There is nothing important about tomorrow! If the ASX pullsback and corrects, well fantastic! Those here would agree a slight correction is iminent.Tuesday morning in my opinion is far more important than tomorrow.By then we will have an indication of the movement on the DJIA.
As for a crash, I doubt it short term. Who knows.If somebody clearly knew the outcome, well we'd all go short and become instant millionaires again!!

 

[nizar]

does any1 remember if it was sumthing in the US that caused a correction in asx200 in october 05??

 

[mit]

Only thing that worries me is that the US market was still trending very strongly down at the close. This could me that the US on Monday will be very weak as well and the Aussie market could pre-empt this by having a bigger drop (>70) on Monday.

I think the oil futures tomorrow will be the key.

MIT

 

[TheAnalyst]

Nothing really worries me because my stocks very rarly go down once i buy them and i have mgx so i definitely have nothing to worry about.

 

[clowboy]

i wish the market would just crash already and be done with it

 

[TheAnalyst]

i wish the market would just crash already and be done with it

Same here...i can think of a number of installment warrants that i would love to accumualate on this scenario

 

[Smurf1976]

I didn't keep the link unfortunately but I read somewhere that Iran was moving ALL it's reserves out of Western banks and assets in anticipation that they would be frozen in the event of war. That would be quite a lot of money coming out of the markets I assume.

 

[michael_selway]

does any1 remember if it was sumthing in the US that caused a correction in asx200 in october 05??

Yes dude

Oild prices hit 70+ a barrel

and US quarterly reports of belwo forecasts, however near the end of OCt05 oil prices improved and soem improved employment and spending reports

 

[wayneL]

i wish the market would just crash already and be done with it

I couldn't agree more strongly.

Then I could become a bull again

Alas, political careers hinge on endless bull markets, hence the PPT.

 

[Smurf1976]

however near the end of OCt05 oil prices improved and soem improved employment and spending reports

I'm not having a go at your post or you personally here

Oil prices improved, as in they went DOWN
House prices improved, as in they went UP (I know you didn't mention houses, but real estate agents always use the word "improved").

Whether either of these things are an improvement or not depends on which side of the trade you are on. I doubt the oil exporting countries see falling prices as an improvement. Likewise I doubt those buying their first home or trading "up the ladder" see rising house prices as an improvement. Of course the oil importers and existing property owners / downsizers will be on the other side.

Just an observation about the language used in the markets. It all depends on what benefits the person / organisation making the comment from what I can tell. As I said, just using your post to make the point and not having a go at it or you.

 

[michael_selway]

I'm not having a go at your post or you personally here

Oil prices improved, as in they went DOWN
House prices improved, as in they went UP (I know you didn't mention houses, but real estate agents always use the word "improved").

Whether either of these things are an improvement or not depends on which side of the trade you are on. I doubt the oil exporting countries see falling prices as an improvement. Likewise I doubt those buying their first home or trading "up the ladder" see rising house prices as an improvement. Of course the oil importers and existing property owners / downsizers will be on the other side.

Just an observation about the language used in the markets. It all depends on what benefits the person / organisation making the comment from what I can tell. As I said, just using your post to make the point and not having a go at it or you.

Hi yep thats what i meant

Oil prices improved, as in they went DOWN. Lower oil prices means improvement for the economy. However oil stocks may suffer, but below to the contrary it appears!

Date: 18/1/2006
Author: Robert Guy; Yvonne Ball
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 13
Woodside Petroleum is concerned that the spike in the crude oil price could threaten the global economy. CEO Don Voelte says high oil prices could have an adverse effect on global economic growth, and he would prefer the oil price to fall to around $US40 to $US45 a barrel in order to prevent a decline in the world economy. The oil price was trading at around $US65 a barrel on 17 January 2006. Although Woodside's earnings are boosted by a rise in the oil price,Voelte argues that demand for oil would slump if there was a slowdown in the global economy

 

[visual]

should we name today
something along the lines of ................... monday
hoping not yet

as in a crash?

 

[bullmarket]

Hi Visual

For me it's still way too early to call this a crash, but I guess that depends on what time frame one is trading/investing from.

XJO has made new highs recently and what we are seeing at the moment could be just a technical correction (see chart below) back to more normal longer term averages. The 10 week exponential average for XJO is 4721 atm.

I would only call current long term uptrend, that began in March 03, over if XJO fell below the last major trough being the Oct 05 lows at ~4300.

I posted this over at www.stockmeetingplace.com on Dec 22. I don't see anything yet to change my view.

I still think XJO will stay within ~4300 - 4900 for at least the next 6 months and possibly 12. So imo there could still be a little more upside in XJO in the next few weeks, especially if the traditional New Year rally kicks in, but I also still think the DJIA will really struggle to break through 11000 if tested and that should keep a lid on our market.

cheers

bullmarket

XJO Weekly Chart

 

[visual]

thanks bullmarket

 

[mit]

should we name today
something along the lines of ................... monday
hoping not yet

as in a crash?

In my opinion not quite yet. We are being driven by what's happening overseas. Today's drop is just reflecting friday's drop in the US. We might see more selling this afternoon pricing in some weakness in the US tonight.

I think that in the next couple of days we will be eagerly watching the American markets.

MIT

 

[bullmarket]

No problem visual

I agree in general with mit's post as well. I don't see any bargains amongst 'blue-chips' atm and so I feel that after recent all time highs investors/traders will be sensitive to any negative news.

cheers

bullmarket

 

[Prospector]

I am a professional philosopher with an interest in Alchemy. My reading of the Planets says that the markets will Crash down from 22 October till May 2006. Not a cliffhanger, more a downhill slippery slope.

Just had to repost this one....

 

[wayneL]

Just had to repost this one....

Maybe he had the chart upside down :