The Crash of 05

wavepicker said:

That's great for the planners at Westpac, they are probably advising the same thing right now. Try averaging out the returns of those balanced funds for the last 5 years and again for the next 5 years and those balance sheets may not look so flash. That's because planners like most people like keeping to the status quo.

If 90% of planners or anyone for the matter was very bullish or bearish then to me that shows complacency on their part, and is a sign that a particular trend is at risk of ending.

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Yer, you are correct there! Do you know what the actual return is for a ten year and a five year average for a balanced portfolio? I do.

To be honest with you I don't really care, returns will dimish in the coming months as selling pressure increases. I just know that the returns are insignificant compared to what I have been able to acheive in both bull and bear markets

wavepicker said:

To be honest with you I don't really care, returns will dimish in the coming months as selling pressure increases. I just know that the returns are insignificant compared to what I have been able to acheive in both bull and bear markets

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Because u dont know, thats what i reckon and your last comment isnt fact its an assumption. Actually can you tell me the asset allocation of a balanced portfolio? And if you dont care why make comments?

What i do know is the average return of average fund last 5 to 10 years, and if Westpacs is marginally higher than that, well good on you!! Just because you can make a few $$ in an bull market when 80% of stoxx are rising anyway( something a 10 year old kid could do). This should make you guys real special and proud.

The industry asset allocation levels at present are our biggest clue the market is a peak. You guys make the best contrarian buy or sell signals

Lets see how well you guys do in a sodewyas or eevn a bear market huh? What will recommend then? Buy Westpac?

wavepicker said:

What i do know is the average return of average fund last 5 to 10 years, and if Westpacs is marginally higher than that, well good on you!! Just because you can make a few $$ in an bull market when 80% of stoxx are rising anyway( something a 10 year old kid could do). This should make you guys real special and proud.

The industry asset allocation levels at present are our biggest clue the market is a peak. You guys make the best contrarian buy or sell signals

Lets see how well you guys do in a sodewyas or eevn a bear market huh? What will recommend then? Buy Westpac?

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Wow! you know about Westpac? We just spent one year getting paid to work that out and you did'nt.

That's right I forget, you call yourself the TheAnalyst. You get paid to anal-yse.

Lets keep it on topic guys, we're not far away from deleting some posts here.

Cheers

Re: The Crash of 06

second quarter 06.Lets not turn this into a guessing game when the next crash will occur, but the above is my opinion.A couple of months after the new appointed Bernanke!!!!

Re: The Crash of 06

johnno261 said:

second quarter 06.Lets not turn this into a guessing game when the next crash will occur, but the above is my opinion.A couple of months after the new appointed Bernanke!!!!

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johnno,

Well your view is certainly not without precedent...2nd 1/4 2006 it is.

wavepicker said:

That's right I forget, you call yourself the TheAnalyst. You get paid to anal-yse.

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Thats a very harsh remark; I aint gonna go that low, perhaps you need to realise that you get a bit to upset easy.

xxoo

Re: The Crash of 06

wayneL said:

johnno,

Well your view is certainly not without precedent...2nd 1/4 2006 it is.

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And the headline for the latest issue of aireview is "Abandon all hope, the crash is coming"

http://www.aireview.com/welcome.php

The article mainly goes though Elliot wave analysis, particularly Precter.... WayneL you follow this sort of stuff - the article may be worth a read.

I'm trying to learn up on Exchange traded options - mainly puts (seriously! : )

Re: The Crash of 06

TjamesX said:

And the headline for the latest issue of aireview is "Abandon all hope, the crash is coming"

http://www.aireview.com/welcome.php

The article mainly goes though Elliot wave analysis, particularly Precter.... WayneL you follow this sort of stuff - the article may be worth a read.

I'm trying to learn up on Exchange traded options - mainly puts (seriously! : )

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CRAP....they been saying that to short the market for the last 30 years...you sell they buy.....Gold will go through $500....and dont listen to the brokers...stick to what you know with todays technology....Crash of 2005 CRAP thats what I say its like the realestate market...you pay for what you get..BANKS win you lose....I am long in the market as look at Burns Philp...you could have bought at 3cents this stock....its pure manipulation and decide what is real and what is not thats the way you profit....ZFX is an example...STOCK CRASH....correction yes...depression no...just manipulation by the BIG BOYS....

Re: The Crash of 06

chicken said:

...decide what is real and what is not thats the way you profit...

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Agreed there. There's always some vested interest trying to convince people that a P/E of 28 is normal, that it's normal to pay 12 times your annual earnings for a house and that there is plenty of oil which can be produced at $30 a barrel. None of which, in my opinion, is true and therein lies potential for profit.

Re: The Crash of 06

Smurf1976 said:

Agreed there. There's always some vested interest trying to convince people that a P/E of 28 is normal, that it's normal to pay 12 times your annual earnings for a house and that there is plenty of oil which can be produced at $30 a barrel. None of which, in my opinion, is true and therein lies potential for profit.

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Hehehehe, right on there.

Tjames,

been away a fews days, thanks for the article, will give it a read

Cheers

More grist for the mill.....

Britons going bust: total soars by 46% in a year

· Experts blame easy credit and 'want now' consumers
· Government accused of allowing £1trillion debts

Ashley Seager, Laura Smith, Larry Elliott
Saturday November 5, 2005
The Guardian

The number of people filing for insolvency in Britain rose by almost 50% to new record levels over the past year as consumers struggled to cope with the debts amassed in recent years, according to government figures released yesterday.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,1635079,00.html

and...

Memo to consumer: Why have you curbed spending?
Wall Street says it needs you to keep the economy afloat

Ellen Simon
AP Business Writer
November 5, 2005
NEW YORK - Wall Street is worried about you. Yes, you. The one they call "The Consumer."

Yes, you. The one they call "The Consumer." From the trophy-arrayed corner office of the richest CEO to the windowless cubicle of the most junior analyst, your immediate future is a pressing concern. What will you get for Christmas? How much will it cost to heat your house this winter? Will you get a raise next year?

http://www.desertsunonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20051105/BUSINESS06/511050321/1003

Re: The Crash of 06

chicken said:

CRAP....they been saying that to short the market for the last 30 years...you sell they buy.....Gold will go through $500....and dont listen to the brokers...stick to what you know with todays technology....Crash of 2005 CRAP thats what I say its like the realestate market...you pay for what you get..BANKS win you lose....I am long in the market as look at Burns Philp...you could have bought at 3cents this stock....its pure manipulation and decide what is real and what is not thats the way you profit....ZFX is an example...STOCK CRASH....correction yes...depression no...just manipulation by the BIG BOYS....

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Chicken,

I invite you to expand your time horizon.

Could the world economy fall over after such a stellar run? Sure it can!

I knew a bloke who had a business the same as mine years ago.

Sales were booming, he spent 30k on his office (when that was a &^%$ing lot of money for an office) and bought a brand new Porche 911.......

......4 months later he went broke for a $2.5 million.

Another fellow in the same industry had his salesmen running around in merc 380's...had the flash factory/showroom...was well up in the industry association...status plus.

Guess what? Yup! Went down for $6.5 mil

All is not always at it seems.

Cheers

Re: The Crash of 06

wayneL said:

Chicken,

I invite you to expand your time horizon.

Could the world economy fall over after such a stellar run? Sure it can!

I knew a bloke who had a business the same as mine years ago.

Sales were booming, he spent 30k on his office (when that was a &^%$ing lot of money for an office) and bought a brand new Porche 911.......

......4 months later he went broke for a $2.5 million.

Another fellow in the same industry had his salesmen running around in merc 380's...had the flash factory/showroom...was well up in the industry association...status plus.

Guess what? Yup! Went down for $6.5 mil

All is not always at it seems.

Cheers

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Waynel...I think you follow the rule you cant go broke shorting the market...

I've just had a brainwave!

Does two corrections in a year mean we've got the equivalent of a double bottom in strength and direction?

Just thinking outside the square.

Cheers
Happytrader

Hey! Are we still in the crash? Or is it over for now?

Re: The Crash of 06

chicken said:

CRAP....they been saying that to short the market for the last 30 years...you sell they buy.....Gold will go through $500....and dont listen to the brokers...stick to what you know with todays technology....Crash of 2005 CRAP thats what I say its like the realestate market...you pay for what you get..BANKS win you lose....I am long in the market as look at Burns Philp...you could have bought at 3cents this stock....its pure manipulation and decide what is real and what is not thats the way you profit....ZFX is an example...STOCK CRASH....correction yes...depression no...just manipulation by the BIG BOYS....

Click to expand...

Chiken,

It all depends as what you define as a correction and a crash. There are crashes that happen in 2-5 days such as the crashes of 29 and 87. Then there is a slow ratchetting bear market that can last for years, which can also be defined as a crash(bear market of the 1970's). Technically speaking however, a crash is defined as a decline in prices of 15% or greater.

It seems to me that certain bulls who permeate these forums who will not be named (they know who they are), some of whom have a professional financial status(although one wonders who on earth gave them the license to give financial advice) They think the share market, property market , etc have only has one direction.-UP

These people have either not been trading for long or have very short memories(It was just 2 years ago we finished a 23% crash in the ASX). In my opinion, the best of the gains of this market are well and truly over. Retail investors who are over invested and Instos that have high asset allocations toward the market are at best chasing a probable 5% gain and risking 25% fall. I thought the market was about buying low and selling high; or is it perhaps , buy high and selling a little higher Or selling lower? Where is the value in this market now?

In so far as Robert Prechter goes, in my opinion the man is one of the best technical analysts and financial authors on the face of this planet. Back in 1978 while the DJIA and most of the other world markets had been in a bear market for 10 years, he was a lone bull on Wall st. He predicted the biggest bull market in history was about to start(when 90% of Analysts were bearish. He then predicted the crash of 87 within a week of it taking place. Sure he has not been 100% recently(and who ever is consistantly accurate anyway!!). But you forget he is also correct because the DJIA is still in the bear market that started in December of 2000. The only difference is that the down trend will pick up speed next year.

It's not a matter of IF the market will CRASH, CORRECT > 15%, HAVE LONG BEAR MARKET, but when. All you have to do is look behind you, because when it does come it will not be correcting the gains we have had the last 2 years,5 years or even 10 years, rather it will be correcting the gains that have been made since 1982, which will make it a 7-10 year bear market when it finally does start. And 90% of people (that includes professionals) will stay invested during that period, and the other 10% will make $$ at their expense.