The Crash of 05

markrmau · 19 October 2005

mit said:
Getting Redder all of a sudden. Anyone know why?MIT

My guess is that in US overnight (11am or so here) one of the US reserve bank board members said that current US interest rates were at the bottom of the neutral range which she put at 3.5-5.5%.

Plenty of upside to US rates possible then. US could drop another >1% tonight.

Also US housing bubble comments (despite Greenspan trying to rewrite history a little )

TjamesX · 19 October 2005

After adding to my holdings a couple of weeks ago, I reversed this at open today. Now back down to < 30% shares.

Producer price reports overnight in the US are what really concern me - the day before it was GM posting a larger loss than expected. I think some bad fundamentals are slowly rising to the surface. At the moment the question in the US is how the companies are dealing with higher input prices, two options;

1) Pass them onto the consumer - up inflation - up interest rates - consumers tank under debt - bad
2) Don't pass them onto the consumer - margins squeeze - profit hurt - bad

Pretty much a rock and a hard place if you ask me.

i think this could lead to a re-weighting of what investors are willing to pay for earnings (re sharemarket slide) and it may take a while for it to play out. Im not willing to play it too cute for any upside at the moment

???

Smurf1976 · 19 October 2005

IMO the US market reached a long term top over 5 years ago that won't be exceeded for many years yet.

If the ASX was outperforming the US markets then I could see a bullish case for our market. But right now the US markets fall a bit and the Aussie market falls a lot more which is starting to worry me somewhat.

TheAnalyst · 19 October 2005

If investors have listened to the advice of the Financial Planning association and its skilled and qualified members they would be diversified and not worried about a crash or any of the events of the last 2 weeks.

Milk Man · 20 October 2005

TheAnalyst said:
If investors have listened to the advice of the Financial Planning association and its skilled and qualified members they would be diversified and not worried about a crash or any of the events of the last 2 weeks.

What, with all those "great" managed funds that give the planners payola? Lets get one thing straight: there are financial planners and there are salesman. I fear most fall into thar second category. If you got one of the latter, where do you think your money would be? In funds that cant beat the index no doubt.

Aussiejeff · 20 October 2005

Oh dear! Not ANOTHER rebound! DJIA up 120+ pts ... shoo bears, SHOOO!

;o)

It's enough to give us motion sickness!

AJ

TheAnalyst · 20 October 2005

Financial planning is not just about picking funds as there are many issues involved such as; risk management, portfolio structure, capital protection, fulfilling the many legal issues, retirement planning, estate planning, taxation, superannuation, risk profile and it goes on. A planner is not just a salesman it is actually a lot more than that.

Financial planning is also about direct share investment to someone with the relevant risk profile for direct share investment and the reason why people are advised and choose funds is because of the ease of management.

michael_selway · 21 October 2005

mit said:
Getting Redder all of a sudden. Anyone know why?

MIT

yeah US jumped 100+ while all ords dropped?

Aussiejeff · 21 October 2005

michael_selway said:
yeah US jumped 100+ while all ords dropped?

Well whaddya know.... US SLUMP overnight of over 120- after yesterdays JUMP. Sure are jittery critters over thar!

Nosebleed day in the AllOrds again???

Cheers,

AJ

el_ninj0 · 21 October 2005

If we are going by previous days experiances, then we are in for another big fall. More like a river of red than a nosebleed.

mit · 21 October 2005

I read somewhere that the magnitude of the ''87 crash caused in large part by the use of portfolio insurance. Well it's back

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Share-price-insurance-launched/2005/10/21/1129775932139.html

MIT

Bronte · 21 October 2005

21st-September-2005, 05:13 PM

Re: Last check, then ready to go......

Please do not start buying any stocks now during this timeframe.
(See "Trading the SPI")
Keep learning, reading, asking questions until Oct/Nov.

An old quote from "Last check, then ready to go....

Yippyio · 21 October 2005

Some great buying ops out there. The only problem is I am right into my margin buffer and all I can do now is sit and watch.

:freak3:

It's Snake Pliskin · 21 October 2005

Yippyio said:
Some great buying ops out there. The only problem is I am right into my margin buffer and all I can do now is sit and watch.

:freak3:

I agree! I bought BHP $19.51.

mit · 21 October 2005

Bronte said:
21st-September-2005, 05:13 PM

Re: Last check, then ready to go......

Please do not start buying any stocks now during this timeframe.
(See "Trading the SPI")
Keep learning, reading, asking questions until Oct/Nov.

An old quote from "Last check, then ready to go....

Bronte,

It's October now. Are you saying you are bullish or bearish?

Mit

RichKid · 21 October 2005

Bronte said:
21st-September-2005, 05:13 PM

Re: Last check, then ready to go......

Please do not start buying any stocks now during this timeframe.
(See "Trading the SPI")
Keep learning, reading, asking questions until Oct/Nov.

An old quote from "Last check, then ready to go....

Bronte,
I'm sure you mean well and even if I agree with your view we have to be careful to ensure any views are not considered to be financial advice. If by some chance the market bounces and people lose out on profits due to reliance on your view then there is the real chance of being blamed for 'bad advice'. This is just my understanding of ASIC's view and the general law.

I do agree that it is worth learning and reading and questioning all the time.

Yippyio · 21 October 2005

Snake Pliskin said:
I agree! I bought BHP $19.51.

BHP making a stirling come back, well done Snake.

It's Snake Pliskin · 21 October 2005

Yippyio said:
BHP making a stirling come back, well done Snake.

Thankyou.

I got more of ADB too. It really spiked low today and picked it up on the rebound. I have an average price $12.40. "I'm excited" as big Kev would say.

TheAnalyst · 21 October 2005

RichKid said:
Bronte,
I'm sure you mean well and even if I agree with your view we have to be careful to ensure any views are not considered to be financial advice. If by some chance the market bounces and people lose out on profits due to reliance on your view then there is the real chance of being blamed for 'bad advice'. This is just my understanding of ASIC's view and the general law.

I do agree that it is worth learning and reading and questioning all the time.

Yes, you are right under division 7.7 of the corps act s945A States the "know your client rule" which mean that you must know your clients or anybody who may take into account your financial advice, this includes a recommendation not to obtain or not to sell it is still considered advice under the act and can only be given once you have ascertianed the persons objectives, financial situation & needs by proper investigation.

s945B states an obligation to warn a person if the advice is based on incomplete information or inaccurate information and s949A states that a person must be warned that the advice has not been prepared taking into account the persons objectives, financial needs and situation.

Under part 7.7 there is a criminal liability by not providing a Statement of Advice and Financial Services Guide and there is also a civil liability under part 7.7 which imposes a civil liability for loss or damage for contravention of provisions of part 7.7 (includes the FSG and SOA obligations)

It's Snake Pliskin · 21 October 2005

TheAnalyst said:
Yes, you are right under division 7.7 of the corps act s945A States the "know your client rule" which mean that you must know your clients or anybody who may take into account your financial advice, this includes a recommendation not to obtain or not to sell it is still considered advice under the act and can only be given once you have ascertianed the persons objectives, financial situation & needs by proper investigation.

s945B states an obligation to warn a person if the advice is based on incomplete information or inaccurate information and s949A states that a person must be warned that the advice has not been prepared taking into account the persons objectives, financial needs and situation.

Under part 7.7 there is a criminal liability by not providing a Statement of Advice and Financial Services Guide and there is also a civil liability under part 7.7 which imposes a civil liability for loss or damage for contravention of provisions of part 7.7 (includes the FSG and SOA obligations)

Thanks for this.

It is really helpful in determining what one should write. Lift your finger and one could be found in court saying "no sir, yes sir"...

The Crash of 05

markrmau

TjamesX

Smurf1976

TheAnalyst

Milk Man

Aussiejeff

TheAnalyst

michael_selway

Coal & Phosphate, thats it!

Aussiejeff

el_ninj0

mit

Bronte

Trading The SPI for 20+ years

Yippyio

It's Snake Pliskin

mit

RichKid

PlanYourTrade > TradeYourPlan

Yippyio

It's Snake Pliskin

TheAnalyst

It's Snake Pliskin

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