- Joined
- 17 January 2007
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- 32
Yikes, what a great effort by luutzi with the investing 101! Far more patience than I have.
So the problem with share buybacks with debt can be readily observed - it really only works if rates are low and there is economic growth. When either or both of those changes then the numbers won't add up favourably.
Rates are rising in the US in order to attract money to fund their deficit(s). Ust10 at 3% is now better than the risky return from a lot of listed companies. Throw in a recession, as will likely start imminently, as in April GDP figures disappointing, then the debt to profit ratio will blow out.
This is simple maths, distorted by CBs, to give the appearance of normality.
There looks to be a cap on the ust10 at 2.9 for now but when it breaks higher we will get the real correction. The Trump trade is dead, the bulls just don't know it yet. Bot ramps rule.
Nice wedge forming in equities now though, just in time for April.
So the problem with share buybacks with debt can be readily observed - it really only works if rates are low and there is economic growth. When either or both of those changes then the numbers won't add up favourably.
Rates are rising in the US in order to attract money to fund their deficit(s). Ust10 at 3% is now better than the risky return from a lot of listed companies. Throw in a recession, as will likely start imminently, as in April GDP figures disappointing, then the debt to profit ratio will blow out.
This is simple maths, distorted by CBs, to give the appearance of normality.
There looks to be a cap on the ust10 at 2.9 for now but when it breaks higher we will get the real correction. The Trump trade is dead, the bulls just don't know it yet. Bot ramps rule.
Nice wedge forming in equities now though, just in time for April.