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That Was The Week That Was ... In Australia
12 Apr 2014

>>> by Our Man in Oz <<<

Minews. Good morning Australia, you seem to have had an exciting week without actually going anywhere.

Oz. That’s one way of describing a week when the market went up, the market came down, and we finished up within a fraction of a point at where we started, with one exception, gold.

Minews. Surely your nickel stocks did well given the sharp rise in the price of that metal.

Oz. They did, and we’ll get to them, but the overall trend, as measured by the various indices was largely neutral, perhaps influenced by the negative sentiment flowing out of the big tech-stock sell-off on Wall Street, and speculation that a wider correction is coming.

Minews. Do you believe that will affect the mining sector?

Oz. Now, that’s the interesting question because it’s my belief that money rushing out of nonsense tech stocks with their overblown valuations could find its way back into something more substantial, such as mining stocks.

There’s no evidence of that, yet, but the 6 per cent rise in the gold index on the Australian market was a timely reminder that investors appear to be seeking something more tangible than a piece of computer code for a hand-held toy.

Minews. So, the gold index up, and everything else flat, which means we should start our look at prices with gold, and any eye-catching news makers.

Oz. We’ll go to the newsworthy stocks first because we had a few interesting ones last week, with none more so than Padbury Mining (PDY) which doubled over the course of the week, but was up by 225 per cent at one stage, earning a stock-exchange speeding inquiry while raising eyebrows almost as fast as it raised its share price.

Minews. Do tell more about Padbury, a stock with a very low profile over this way.

Oz. And, I suspect destined to resume that position once the dust settles on its claim to have secured 100 per cent equity funding for a A$6 billion deepwater port and rail system for its iron ore project on the mid-west coast.

That announcement, made on Friday after a two-day self-requested trading suspension, sent Padbury into orbit as it rocketed up from A1.6 cents to A5.2 cents in heavy turnover.

The stock exchange, naturally, questioned Padbury management, but that’s unlikely to be where the matter ends because most people familiar with the Oakajee port project, which Padbury says it will develop, doubt that a company with a stock-market value of A$111 million can raise A$6 billion in equity given that it appears to have liquid assets totalling A$2 million.

Minews. It does seem a bit of a heavy lift for a small miner.

Oz. You are being kind. The point about Oakajee is that some of the world’s biggest engineering and construction companies have tried to make that project stand up during previous mining booms, and all failed.
...

Source >>> www.minesite.com
 
Copper expected to be down but not out
14 Apr 2014

>>> by Rob Davies <<<


Even though equity markets had a rough ride last week base metals made progress as evidenced by the 2% gain in the LME Index to 3,074. Most of that was accounted for by the 5.3% increase in the nickel price to $17,390 a tonne. The driving force behind this metal remains the concern over the ban on Indonesian exports. That was reinforced this week by fear that Russian might be prevented from exporting nickel from Norilsk Nickel as a consequence of the continuing tension over the Ukraine.

Amongst this turbulence the experts at Société Générale released a note on the copper market. It was mainly focussed on equities that are exposed to copper but the overview into the copper market for the next two years is enlightening.

Essentially the analysts expect copper to trade at around $6,500 a tonne for the majority of that period. Their argument is that an oversupply of copper this year of one million tonnes will depress markets to that level, and then they will stay there or thereabouts for the next two years.

It predicts that supply will increase at an annual rate of 5.4% but that demand will only grow at 4 to 5%. Many would argue that the current market is far too finely balanced and it will be a good thing if it accumulates some reserves.

Current LME inventories of only 250,025 tonnes indicate that there is no spare metal to speak off. Even adding in the 820,000 tonnes estimated to be held in Chinese bonded warehouses does not suggest there is a lot of unwanted metal hanging around. More importantly the researchers at the French bank are not overly concerned, as some are, that the inventory of refined metal in China tied up in financing deals is likely to be released quickly onto the market putting further pressure on prices.

The scale of the production increase over the three year period in the review is significant. In total the analysts expect mine production to increase by 3.7 million tonnes with 20 projects set to account for 87% of the new supply. Five mines alone, Las Bambas, Sentinel, Toromocho, Morenci and Buenavista will each contribute more than 200,000 tonnes to the total.

One factor that plagues forecasting is the potential for supply disruption. This has been a perennial feature in the copper market over the last decade and is made more acute by the continuing tightness. They point out that disruption has averaged between 4 and 6% in recent years resulting from strikes and accidents. In their model the analysts have assumed 3% initially then rising to 5%.

The other, even bigger, unknown is the level of growth in Chinese demand. Since China accounts for 40% of the market it only needs, for example, a 1% increase in disruption to roughly offset a 2% fall in Chinese demand growth.

Overall, it is a large and complex business. With so many moving parts the metal markets remain endlessly fascinating to analyse. And, for those that get it right, it can be very profitable.

Source >> www.minesite.com
 
>>> Minmetals Group Buys Glencore Peru Mine for $5.85 Billion
>>> By Jesse Riseborough and Rebecca Penty

Apr 14, 2014


China Minmetals Corp., the state-owned metals trader, led a group that agreed to pay $5.85 billion for Glencore Xstrata Plc (GLEN)’s Las Bambas copper project in Peru as China seeks greater control over material supplies.

“It’s a good price, probably toward the top end of market expectations,” Jeff Largey, an analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. in London, said in a phone interview, adding the deal provides a good outcome for China. “This is a Chinese buyer, buying a very high quality copper asset.”
...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...glencore-copper-project-for-5-85-billion.html
 
This thread started on April 14, 2007.

Today is the 7th anniversary !

Thanks for being such a tireless contributor to the thread you started drillinto.

Takes a lot of enthusiasm to keep the interest up.

I,m sure it has been greatly appreciated, as I do.
 
Thanks for being such a tireless contributor to the thread you started drillinto.

Takes a lot of enthusiasm to keep the interest up.

I,m sure it has been greatly appreciated, as I do.


Thank you very much Buckfont.


"Nobody can make big money on what someone else tells him to do"
Edwin Lefevre - American journalist (1871-1943)
 
How will the new Russia affect commodities?

>> 21 Apr 2014

>> by Rob Davies <<


It is rather strange that prospects for the world economy, and hence commodities, are no longer dictated by the mature democracies of the West. In these countries, despite the frustrations of large parts of the electorate, economic growth follows a fairly predictable, and nowadays modest, path.

Instead the economic future is dependent on two large countries that are not democratic in the Western sense and therefore have a greater degree of uncertainty over their future. China is important as the largest commodity consumer while Russia is still a large supplier. More significant though is how Russia’s newly revealed belligerence on the world stage might change the status quo.

China’s economy grew by 7.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2014. Even though this was the lowest rate in six quarters, and still surpasses the efforts of every other major economy, it triggered hand wringing in some quarters. Lower rates of growth persuade some experts to think the trend will continue. Judy Zhu of Standard Chartered expects iron ore prices to continue weakening this year because of this lower rate growth. She expects prices to fall from the current $129 a tonne to $114 a tonne in the third quarter and $108 a tonne in the fourth. Goldman Sachs goes further and forecast an average of $80 a tonne for 2015.

These price changes are quite large, but are unlikely to disturb the valuations of the mining companies too much as they are largely already discounted into earnings forecasts. It is the uncertainty created by President Putin’s newly emboldened Russia that is harder to assess. Nickel prices started the year firmly as the Indonesian embargo on exports of unprocessed ore reduced supply. Since then worries that metal from Norilsk Nickel may be reduced if tensions continue to increase. Together these two features have caused nickel to rise 30 per cent this year to $17,930 a tonne.

Nickel is a relatively small market so this volatility is perhaps to be expected. However, it does trigger a line of thought as to how Russia’s behaviour may affect other commodities. In many ways the peaceful breakup of the USSR in the late eighties was the big surprise. That such a large country could suddenly dissolve into a number of smaller states without any conflict is unusual in historical terms. The main reason was the abject failure of communism to deliver economic growth and prosperity to its inhabitants who were increasingly aware of higher material benefits in the West. They didn’t fight because they couldn’t afford to and anything was better than what they had. The humiliation was accepted, but with bad grace.

A quarter of a century later a tiny proportion of the population have become hugely wealthy by obscure means and many of these have transferred what wealth they can from a kleptocratic government to property and football clubs in the West.

However, for large parts of the population of Russia and the former states of the USSR life is little changed and they know their status relative to the West has continued to diminish. The prospect of recovering some of their lost glory is at least a modest consolation for their lack of wealth, and that plays well with the leaders.

Unfortunately none of these political developments are likely to spark the economic revolution that has been underway in China. There is no evidence that Russia and the other states of the former USSR are about to be transformed into large commodity consumers. Instead, the West is worried about the intentions of this grumpy bear intent on re-establishing its former status as world power to be taken seriously and not patronised.

Putin, like Hitler in the 1930s, wants to recover Russia’s lost empire and the West clearly has little appetite to stop him militarily. The West will impose sanctions, but these won’t affect Russian policy, just create more money making opportunities for intermediaries. What concerns Europe, and hence the US, most is its energy dependence. That will surely change.

Politicians in Europe will undoubtedly start to look more favourably at nuclear energy, shale gas and coal. It won’t happen overnight but it must be good news in the long term for coal miners and uranium explorers and miners.

The disappointing aspect for Russians is that energy exports are its largest source of income. If these actions drive away their largest customer they will become even more impoverished relative to the West. That won’t make them any easier to live with as close neighbours.

Source >> www.minesite.com <<
 
Barclays joins retreat from commodities as new rules bite

>> 04/22/2014

>> by Steve Slater and David Sheppard


Barclays is to quit most of its commodities trading businesses, it said on Tuesday, joining a retreat prompted by falling profitability in the face of tougher regulation.

The British bank's exit means that three of the top five banks in commodities have significantly reduced or shuttered their natural resource trading arms since last summer amid falling profits regulatory demands for lenders to hold more capital to shield them against problems in the business.

Barclays said it would exit most of its metals, energy and agricultural trading but will continue trading precious metals, some oil and gas instruments and index products. The smaller business will be focused on electronic execution, it said.

The bank did not say how many jobs would be lost from its commodities team of about 160.

Barclays is due to unveil a wider reduction in the size of its investment bank next month as it attempts to cut costs and improve profitability by axing areas that have been hit hardest hit by tougher regulation.

It had already cut some of its metal, U.S. power and agricultural trading business.

Some rivals have made more dramatic retreats. JPMorgan Chase & Co is selling its vast physical commodities business to Swiss-based independent trader Mercuria for $3.5 billion (2 billion pounds), while Deutsche Bank announced late last year that it was closing its entire oil, grains and industrial metals business.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the two banks that pioneered commodity trading on Wall Street 30 years ago, remain as the two largest financial participants in the natural resources sector, despite a ten-year challenge from the likes of Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Citi and JPMorgan.

But commodities trading revenue for 10 of the world's biggest banks fell to $4.5 billion last year, down from more than $14 billion in 2008, according to estimates from analytics firm Coalition.


Source: Thomson Reuters
*****
 
>> That Was The Week That Was … In Australia

>> 26 Apr 2014

>> by Our Man in OZ


Minews. Good morning Australia. Your market seems to have gained a little ground last week.

Oz. It did, but only a little in what was just a three-day week. After losing Easter Monday we marched straight to the Anzac Day holiday on Friday, with those events overlapping school holidays.

The net result has been a fairly lazy time on the market, highlighted by low volumes because most people with regular jobs were able to take a 10-day break while officially only taking three days off work.

Minews. Perhaps that’s another reason for calling Australia the lucky country?

Oz. It could be, but the real reason seems to be our proximity to those huge markets in Asia which are showing no sign of diminished demand for commodities.

Last week’s star, as it has been for the past month was nickel, with the price holding comfortably above US$8.00 a pound last week, a level which helped most nickel miners trade up to fresh 12-month share-price highs, or get close to that level.

Minews. Prices soon, but first let’s wrap up our conversation about the big picture, including any movement in the stock exchange indices we follow.

Oz. All the indices were up, but not by much. The all ordinaries managed a rise of 1.3 per cent, largely because of revived interest in our banking sector. The metals and mining index crept up by very modest 0.3 per cent. The gold index rose by 1.1 per cent, but should do better on Monday because a surge in the gold price on Thursday came after we had closed for the week.

Minews. Because the index moves were so modest, and trading so thin, let’s start our call of prices by focussing initially on any newsmakers, good or bad.

Oz. Nickel was the positive newsmaker, but there was also a whiff of interest in gold stocks after investors analysed the local implications of a potential merger between the world’s top two goldminers, Barrick and Newmont.

Padbury Mining (PDY), the minnow which claimed to have access to US$6 billion for a rail and port development, was the less than good newsmaker after it failed to reveal where the money would come from, and finally earned a visit from corporate regulators who demanded to know more. Naturally, the trading in Padbury remains suspended.

Minews. We’ll leave Padbury to stew. Let’s hear about the nickel movers.
...

Source >> www.minesite.com
 
>> Ukraine: This Won’t End Well

>> 27 Apr 2014

>> by Rob Davies <<

The relaxed attitude of capital markets to the increasing tensions in the Ukraine seems complacent - as demonstrated by a 3.3 per cent increase in base metal prices over the week.

While it is impossible to say at this stage what the final outcome will be, it is probable that one side will feel disadvantaged at the conclusion.

The ideal result for any deal is for both sides to feel mildly hard done by. That conclusion looks less and less likely as the stand-off continues.

Russia is not a global superpower. It is not even Upper Volta with rockets as the old USSR was once described.

Nevertheless, it is still a large economy, equivalent in economic size to Italy. So the news that the Russian central bank unexpectedly increased interest rates last week to 7.5 per cent from seven per cent is not something to be ignored, especially when interest rates in other parts of the developed world are so low.

Quite why the bank did this is unclear.

It certainly won’t help to increase GDP growth, which is currently forecast to be a desultory 0.5 per cent for 2014, substantially lower even than the anaemic 1.3 per cent achieved in 2013.

The interest rate rise is also probably not enough to stem the ongoing flight of capital from the country.

It is estimated that US$64 billion left Russia in the first quarter alone. That might help house prices in Mayfair but it won’t do anything for Russian business.

Add to that the recent downgrading of Russian debt to BBB, the lowest investment grade, by S & P, and it is clear that the prospects for this country are rapidly souring.

None of that is likely to affect the actions of Mr Putin who seems more interested in recapturing territory lost in the break-up of the USSR over two decades ago.

The problem will arise when he finds his plans frustrated by economic weakness at home.

That might encourage him to take other, more aggressive actions to maintain his domestic profile. Whatever they are they are unlikely to be as positive for world growth as the peaceful splintering of the USSR was.

That ushered in a long period of steady non-inflationary economic growth in Europe and North America as defence spending was slashed and trade blossomed.

More importantly it allowed China to flourish, a development which took the Chinese share of the commodity market from virtually nothing to 40 per cent in three decades.

It is impossible to envisage anything like that happening again.

On top of that the West is still dealing with the aftermath of the financial crash of 2007.

Europe is on the brink of experiencing deflation for the first time since the 1930s and the US is still monetizing its debt to avoid the same problem.

After five years of recovery which only generated modest growth in the West there are now real concerns that the bull market is running out of steam as these two engines start to splutter. It is still only China that is driving world economic growth, and hence commodity demand.

So perhaps the news that Barclays, J P Morgan, Chase & Co and Morgan Stanley have all decided to exit commodity trading is a signal that the supercharged returns generated by commodities over the last few decades are coming to an end.

Bloomberg quotes an unpublished United Nations report that says the departure of many large investment banks from commodity trading will reduce the correlation of commodities with other asset classes, such as equities.

In truth, part of the reason may be the application of the Volcker Rule that limits the amount of proprietary trading these banks can do.

It will certainly reduce liquidity and that will increase volatility. So the ride may become slower, but probably a lot more exciting. Depending, of course, on what Mr Putin does.

Source >> www.minesite.com
 
>>> Deutsche Bank Resigns From London Gold And Silver Fixing Panel
>>> by Commodity Trade Mantra | Apr 30, 2014

>>> Deutsche Bank Departs London Fixings On May 13, 2104

German banking giant, Deutsche Bank, announced yesterday that it will be resigning from both the London Gold Fixing and London Silver Fixing panels, and that it is withdrawing without having found a buyer for either of its seats on the respective panels. According to informed sources, the Bank’s last day as a member of the Fixings is Tuesday, 13th May.

While Deutsche’s resignation was expected and there had been signs that it was struggling to find buyers, the news is noteworthy in that by giving only two weeks’ notice, the bank’s departure is now imminent, and the worst case fear for the other participants seems to have now been borne out, namely that prospective buyers of the seats have been frightened off by the growing regulatory investigations into the nature of the fixings and additionally, up to 20 commercial lawsuits which are alleging that the Fixing process is conducive to the manipulation of gold and silver prices.
...

http://www.investing.com/analysis/d...om-london-gold-and-silver-fixing-panel-211311
 
Book forthcoming - June 2014

"The Secret Club That Runs the World: Inside the Fraternity of Commodity Traders"

Kate Kelly. Penguin/Portfolio, US$27.95 (268p) ISBN 978-1-59184-546-1


CNBC reporter Kelly (Street Fighters) offers brief portraits of successful traders from the lightly regulated world of commodity trading, where deals for oil, copper, and livestock are engineered for billions in profits. Much of the action described took place during a post-2001 boom that prompted major investment banks to get in on the action, and spurred regulators to try curbing the potential fallout from wild market swings that “created kings in the trading world’s empowered class and drove other people and companies into financial ruin.” Kelly presents mostly admiring portraits of obscure but rich financiers. There’s a false familiarity with these elites, as seen in details of extravagant wedding costs, and efforts to provide balance through sketches of would-be reformers such as Gary Gensler, former head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, fail to round out the choppy narrative. Apart from references to $4 per gallon gasoline during speculation-fueled price spikes and rising costs to Coca-Cola after a bottleneck in aluminum supplies, Kelly does not fully demonstrate the practical costs to the rest of the world. The need for access to her subjects forces her, like much of the rest of the financial press, to pull her punches. Agent: Bob Barnett, Williams & Connolly. (June)

http://www.publishersweekly.com/978-1-59184-546-1
 
>>> That Was The Week That Was ... In Australia

>>> 3 May 2014

>>> by Our Man in Oz

Minews. Good morning Australia. Your market seems to have had a tough week.

Oz. Apart from a handful of interesting upward moves it was a case of red ink everywhere, though not what you would call a crash, or even a correction, just a week of consistent selling.

Minews. Perhaps you’ve caught the sell-in-May-and-go-away bug which normally hits the U.K. market around this time.

Oz. It’s possible, though I see you’re yet to be bitten by the bug, yet. The problem down this way is very much related to the strength of the commodity markets, which is not overly encouraging, and a new factor, the threat of a higher taxes as the government reins in social welfare spending.

Minews. Sounds like you’re about to go through the same process that has been common in parts of Europe for the past few years.

Oz. Very much so, though the tax rises and spending cuts will probably be less painful as the government’s budget is not in crisis conditions. It’s more a case of cut carefully now, or deeply and painfully later.

Minews. Interesting, but let’s stick to the market and the red ink you mentioned.

Oz. Overall, the Australian market, as measured by the all ordinaries index lost a relatively modest 1.4 per cent, whereas the metals and mining index fell a much sharper 3.1 per cent and the gold index did worst of all with a drop of 3.4 per cent.

Some of that decline by gold stocks might be reversed on Monday because a rise in the gold price to back above US$1,300 an ounce, caused by the bloodshed in Ukraine, came after we had closed for the week.
...

>>> Source >>> www.minesite.com
 
The Commodities Industry Remains A Price Taker, Not A Price Maker

5 May 2014

>>> by Rob Davies <<<


The first was that on purchasing power parity basis it is likely that China is now officially the largest economy in the world.

In part this is a simple reflection of the economic growth of its 1.4 billion inhabitants.

They are now richer in aggregate than the 312 million Americans. It is important to note that though Americans are still way ahead on a per capita basis.

The second item perhaps explains why this is.

Although the US economy added 288,000 jobs last month the participation rate, a measure of how much of the population is actually looking for work, fell to 62.9 per cent.

That is the lowest since 1978. No comparable figures are available for China but it is probably unlikely that over a third of the population in China have given up looking for work.

That low figure for the US may also help to explain why the US economy only grew 0.1 per cent in the first quarter.

These data confirm what most people in the metals business already know. China is far more important to its future than the US.

It has been some time now since China surpassed the US in terms of metal consumption.

This new information confirms that metal demand is a good indicator of emerging economic strength.

Maybe it was the weakness in the US that accounted for the 1.5 per cent drop in base metal prices last week as measured by the LME index. That fall occurred despite a slight dip in the dollar which usually triggers strength in commodity markets.

The change in ranking of the economic superpowers will affect the long term demand and supply relationship for commodities.

However, in the short term it is the growing instability in the Ukraine that threatens capital markets.

In some ways this conflict is the civil war that never happened when the USSR broke apart so suddenly in the late nineteen nineties.

Then Russia did not have the economic strength to resist dissident regions breaking away.

In part this was because it was hobbled by weak oil prices and an inefficient oil and gas sector. Better prices and increased efficiency has transformed this part of the industry and given the country more clout.

However, there are signs that the golden period is coming to an end as fracking has increased oil and gas supply in the US and helped reduce the benchmark West Texas oil price to below US$100 a barrel.

Aluminium, at US$1,736 a tonne and nickel, even with its rally this year to US$18,180 a tonne, are still depressed compared to recent years.

Consequently none of Russia’s major exportable commodities are helping to support its economy, which is still primarily that of a resource-based nation.

The contrast with China, a commodity importer that adds value by fabrication, could not be starker.

South Africa provides further proof that countries with dominant positions in one commodity are still vulnerable.

Despite a three month strike at the three major platinum mines that platinum price remains unfazed at US$1,424 an ounce.

Commodities are important but the clear message is that the industry remains a price taker, not a price maker.


Source >>>>> www.minesite.com
 
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/05/what-if-iron-ore-follows-coking-coal/

While considering potential metal and bulk commodity price direction the rest of the year, we found it useful to look through the lens of the increasingly divergent coal markets. Global seaborne metallurgical and thermal coal markets are in oversupply. According to our estimates, the met coal surplus is ~10 million tonnes (3.5% of 2014 demand) and thermal ~35Mt (4.1% global demand).

Here’s some back of the envelope calculations for you. The coking coal seaborne market is roughly 320 million tonnes (mt). So the 25 mt surplus that has driven prices down 70% from their highs was driven by a surplus a little over 7% of the total market. And check out how far down the cost curve prices have fallen too shake out production:

The total seaborne iron ore market is about 1200mt. The forthcoming surplus on existing projects is projected by Goldman and UBS to be around 250mt in 2015, in a low demand growth scenario that is a more than reasonable base case. That makes for a surplus roughly 21% of the total market.

Now, I know that there is less geographic dispersion and competition in the iron ore market. But that surplus is enormous. The numbers are rough but they’re so bowel-shakingly huge that it really doesn’t matter if they’re considerably wrong. The underlying truth remains.

So, if a 7% surplus killed the coking price by 70%, ask yourself, what does a 21% surplus do to the iron ore price? It’s down roughly 40% from its high already but if it replicates coking coal and falls 70% then it is headed for $55 where it will sit for several years.

That’s not a forecast but it is surely enough to raise a few doubts, no?
 
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