Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

"The best place to be is in commodities"

The Japanese quantitative easing program is US$1.4 trillion over two years which will double their money supply. Yet it's not getting that much attention compared to what the US QEs got.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/apr/04/japan-quantitative-easing-70bn

So the question is, which commodities will be the best investment against the backdrop of Japanese money printing? Precious metals - which ones? Copper, iron ore?

tinhat >> for your consideration >> http://commodityhq.com/2013/silver-slaughtered-by-selling-pressures/
 
The Japanese quantitative easing program is US$1.4 trillion over two years which will double their money supply. Yet it's not getting that much attention compared to what the US QEs got.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/apr/04/japan-quantitative-easing-70bn

So the question is, which commodities will be the best investment against the backdrop of Japanese money printing? Precious metals - which ones? Copper, iron ore?

Goldman Sachs shorts gold >>> http://www.cnbc.com/id/100630626
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April 13, 2013
That Was The Week That Was … In Australia
By Our Man in Oz

Minews. Good morning Australia. The mood of your market seems to have improved last week.

Oz. It did, though the big fall in the gold price came after our market had closed, which means Monday could be quite a torrid day for gold stocks. But I should just say that I’m actually in New York for a few days this week, which means that you are physically closer to the Australian market than me, so we’re going to have a long distance discussion about a place that’s even more distant.

Minews. No doubt you’ve kept in touch with events at home, so let’s go straight to the numbers and any significant news events.

Oz. No big change in the Australian domestic scene. The government remains deeply unpopular which means the mining sector is on countdown to the September 14 election and a chance to re-start the economy.

Interestingly, some of the better share price moves last week came from oversold copper and iron ore stocks, with gold producers staging a modest rally.

Overall, the Australian market rose last week by 2.4 per cent as measured by the all ordinaries index, with the mining and metals index performing slightly better with a rise of 2.8 per cent, and the gold index doing best of all with a rise of 3.6 per cent. Most of the improvement in gold was attributable to a single stock, the local leader, Newcrest (NCM) which clawed back A73 cents to A$19.53, a gain which will be tested when the market re-opens on Monday.

Minews. We might do something a little different this week and start with the base metals, given your comments about copper stocks performing well.

Oz. The revival of interest in copper stocks was interesting because the price of the metal itself did not perform strongly during the week. Copper returned to where it was two weeks ago at around US$3.41 a pound which means it added just US4 cents over the week.

That small rise was enough to see OZ Minerals (OZL) add A53 cents to A$5.28, and Sandfire Resources (SFR) put on A79 cents to A$6.34. PanAust (PNA) was another copper producer in demand, rising by A31 cents to A$2.60. And Peel Mining (PEX) continued to attract interest in its Mallee Bull exploration project, with the stock being lifted by A8 cents to A72 cents.

It wasn’t all one-way traffic among the copper stocks. Blackthorn (BTR) was hit with a downgrade by brokers after its latest report on the resource at its Mumbwa project in Zambia, dropping by a sharp A33 cents (35 per cent) to A61 cents. And Ivanhoe (IVA) continued to be marked down amid reports of a Rio Tinto subsidiary selling its stake in the stock, news that rubbed another A1.5 cents of the price, taking it to A21.5 cents, and the fall since the start of the year to more than A30 cents.

Other copper moves, either way, included: Hot Chili (HCH), down A7 cents to A55 cents, Altona (AOH), up A3.5 cents to A21.5 cents, Rex (RXM), down A4 cents to A37.5 cents, Talisman (TLM), up half-a-cent to A12 cents, and Marengo (MMC), down half-a-cent to A11 cents.
...

Source >>> www.minesite.com
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April 14, 2013
Commodity traders’ $250bn harvest
By Javier Blas // Financial Times(UK)

The world’s top commodities traders have pocketed nearly $250bn over the last decade, making the individuals and families that control the largely privately-owned sector big beneficiaries of the rise of China and other emerging countries.
...
 
April 15, 2013
Metals Markets Look Finely Balanced, As Chinese Growth Slows And Cyprus Emerges As A Possible Seller Of Gold
By Rob Davies

Metal markets demonstrated last week how just how finely balanced they are.

Even though Rio Tinto reported a slide in a pit wall at its Bingham Canyon copper mine the impact on the markets was muted.

It is unclear yet how much production will be lost, but Bloomberg reported that it could be between 100,000 and 200,000 tonnes of copper.

If true, that wipes out the projected surplus in the copper market for 2013.

Despite that, and LME inventories of only 593,650 tonnes, the copper price ended the week at US$7,508 a tonne, only a little higher than the US$7,375 it started at, although it did peak at US$7,544 on Thursday.

Overall, the base metal complex drifted off 0.3 per cent over the week, but that did include a 2.5 per cent retracement on Friday.

While some of the decline could be attributed to expectations of weaker global growth to come, much of the decrease was undoubtedly simply due to a stronger dollar.

Gold also suffered from the positive attitude to the dollar, driven by rising expectations of US growth, and it dropped four per cent to US$1,500 an ounce.

The gold price wasn’t helped by speculation that Cyprus might need to sell some of its 13.9 tonnes of gold to deal with its financial crisis.

It seems that this island economy is now short of a further €6 billion.

While the amount of gold held by Cyprus looks modest compared to the 383 tonnes held by Portugal, even that figure is dwarfed by the 1,184 tonnes held through the SPDR gold ETF in New York.

But the amount of gold held by this retail investment fund hit a 21 month low as investors redirect cash to equities in order to benefit from an improving economy.

What is slightly perplexing about the fall in the gold price is that the opportunity cost of holding it has never been lower.

Long term interest rates on all the major currencies are less than two per cent as central bankers from Tokyo to Washington act as bond buyers of last resort.

Presumably they feel comfortable buying something they know they can control in a way they cannot with gold. It is odd that other investors are not offering them every single bond they own. After all, who else is a bond buyer on that scale?

Better economic growth should be good for base metals. Unfortunately these days the economy that matters is China not the US.

Fears that it will report first quarter growth of “only” eight per cent next week were one reason for the 2.4 per cent decrease in the zinc price on Friday to US$1,843 a tonne.

The large 1.1 million tonne zinc inventory makes it the most vulnerable of all the base metals to concerns over weaker growth. Its consumption bias to construction makes it especially sensitive to changes in infrastructure spending which has been so important to China.

It would be nice to think that a strengthening US economy could compensate for a slowing Chinese one.

But given that the US is more reliant on services than China, and is therefore less metal intensive, it seems that scenario is unlikely as far as industrial commodities are concerned.

Nevertheless, for the time being at least, none of the major base metal markets seem too far out of balance.

Source >>> www.minesite.com
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The Japanese quantitative easing program is US$1.4 trillion over two years which will double their money supply. Yet it's not getting that much attention compared to what the US QEs got.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/apr/04/japan-quantitative-easing-70bn

So the question is, which commodities will be the best investment against the backdrop of Japanese money printing? Precious metals - which ones? Copper, iron ore?



When Goldman Sachs Says Short Gold, It’s Time To Buy

http://commodityhq.com/2013/goldman-sachs-says-short-gold-its-time-to-buy/
 
April 12, 2013

Concerns About Sluggish Demand Casts An Air Of Pessimism Over Oil Markets
By Eithne Treanor

An air of pessimism hit the oil market this week and investors and traders were swift to react and hit the sell button. US inventories are at their highest levels in years and demand is sluggish. In early trading on Friday, Brent crude was at an eight-month low below US$104 with WTI lingering above US$93 a barrel.

The market has been generously supplied with oil in recent months in anticipation of stronger global economic growth. The recent global economic data has not been encouraging and there are now fears that demand will falter, causing the price to fall even lower. The International Energy Agency revised its forecast for global oil demand lower by 45,000 barrels to 90.6 million barrels a day for 2013.

The US Energy Department as well as OPEC also warned of the danger of falling demand in their monthly outlook reports this week. Only last month, the IEA cut its demand outlook, citing the fragility of the global economy. The IEA said Europe is suffering the most with demand at an all time low since the 1980s. All of the industrialised countries are seeing a fall in oil demand but thankfully the bright spots remain China, India and the Middle East. The agency also cut its forecast for non-OPEC supply growth in the year ahead and warned of “significant risks” to OPEC supply, because of geopolitics and security issues.

Iran continues to be an issue impacting the market with production now estimated at 1.1 million barrels a day in March. That’s down from 1.26 million barrels in February. Ongoing security problems in Libya remain a concern, despite encouraging investment roadshows and reassurances from the government. Output was down in March to 1.36 million barrels a day, according to the IEA, about 150,000 lower than the official figure from Libya. Nigeria also lost production last month to continued vandalism and militant attacks on the country’s oil infrastructure.

The US Energy Information Agency cut its demand growth outlook from 135,000 barrels a day in March to 89,995 in April. Forecast for total global oil demand in 2014 is estimated at 91.328 million barrels a day. Forecasts are currently pessimistic despite a small improvement in the US jobs data. Fewer people in the unemployment line would be good news for the American economy, but American stockpiles are high right now and future demand is less than promising.

The EIA said Asia continues to lead oil demand growth and it sees better refinery crude oil inputs in China, “as new refining capacity continues to come on line and investment in the property market and infrastructure sectors expands."
But the agency is still cautiously optimistic on a return to growth in the US. There’s a general feeling that there’s just too much oil in the market right now. Production from OPEC fell last month and the organization also reduced its estimate for global oil demand for the rest of the year from 840,000 barrels last month to just 800,000 barrels a day.

A senior advisor to the Saudi Arabian oil minister said he expects oil prices to remain stable at close to current levels for the rest of the year. Speaking at a gathering in Kuwait this week, Ibrahim Muhanna was more optimistic than many others and he said that Saudi Arabia expected “the world economic situation to remain similar to the last two years.”

He added that the Saudi Arabian ministry expected growth to continue from China and he said he believed that economy alone could add 1 million barrels a day growth in demand in the coming year. He added that, assuming OPEC maintains production of 30.5 million barrels a day and with “anticipated withdrawals from commercial stocks in the forth quarter,” he said the market would remain balanced.

The Iraqi oil minister, Abdul Kareem Luaibi Bahedh says he estimates that Iraq crude oil reserves now stand at more than 150 billion barrels. He said he will announce “technical details” soon. He said the increased reserves figure was the result of a study of many fields and recent data from the Dema oil field. Last October, Iraq estimated reserves at more than 143 billion barrels, an increase from 115 billion. All good news for Iraq as it aims to increase production from its current level of 3.15 million barrels a day in the coming years.

Another development in infrastructure expansion in Iraq will be the construction of an oil pipeline between Jordan and Iraq. The pipeline would deliver oil to the Jordanian Red Sea port of Aqaba with up to 150,000 barrels of crude oil consigned to the refinery at Zarqa. The director of Iraq’s State Company for Oil Projects, Nudah Mousa said the basic agreement had been signed this week. A build-operate-transfer (BOT) proposal is being offered to local, regional and international investors with invitations to tender expected next week. Both parties expect the pipeline to be complete by 2017.

The spread between the two front-month crude contracts narrowed to around US$10.76 a barrel at the end of the week. Brent crude has dropped about 12 per cent in the last two months for a few reasons; namely the state of the Eurozone economy, increased supply and low demand. This is a combination of factors that will continue to worry producers in the months to come.

Source >>> www.oilbarrel.com
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April 19, 2013
That Was The Week That Was ... In Australia
By Our Man in Oz

Minews. Good morning Australia. What a dreadful week for mining stocks.

Oz. That’s an under-statement, and even if you consider the improved mood on Friday there was an immense amount of damage done early in the week, especially among the gold stocks.

Somewhat surprisingly, given the resource-heavy nature of the Australian market, the overall result wasn’t too bad. The all ordinaries index slipped by just 1.8 per cent, a function of strength among banks and retailers.

But it was a totally different picture among the gold and other mining stocks which were hammered flat early in the week before staging that Friday recovery which left the metals and mining index down by 7.5 per cent.

That fall looks awful until you consider that the index was down by more than 10 per cent on Thursday.

The gold index closed the week down by 16.7 per cent, but was down by more than 20 per cent on Thursday, perhaps the biggest one-week fall on record.

Minews. Grim indeed. Time now to move across to the prices, and a short call this week as it will be all bad news, and you’re still travelling.

Oz. Correct on both counts. Still in New York, which has been an exciting place given the proximity and close connections to Boston, site of the bombings and last night’s man hunt.

There is no easy place to start the price check so we might as well go straight to the place where most of the pain was felt, gold, and an early warning, there were no stocks in positive territory. Everything was down.

St Barbara (SBM) fell by A35 cents to A70.5 cents, just up from a 12-month low of A69.5 cents reached during early Friday trade. Silver Lake (SLR) lost A43 cents over the week to close at A$1.35, a price which was actually up A7.5 cents on the Friday starting price, and A10 cents up on the 12-month low of A$1.25 reached on Wednesday.

Other gold-stock movements included: Resolute (RSG), down A14 cents to A97.5 cents, Evolution (EVN), down A38 cents to A93 cents, Endeavour (EVR), down A35 cents to A85 cents, and Troy (TRY), also down A35 cents to A$1.81.

They were followed by Kingsrose (KRM), down A9.5 cents to A48 cents, Newcrest (NCM), down A$2.88 to A$16.65, Northern Star (NST), down A15 cents to A74.5 cents, Perseus (PRU), down A34 cents to A$1.36, and Medusa (MML), down A81 cents to A$3.18. Reed (RDR) fell A1 cent to A9 cents despite pocketing a quick A$27.1 million by closing out its hedge book and repaying debt.
...

Source >>> www.minesite.com
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Leo Hickman(The Guardian, UK) interviews Jeremy Grantham(GMO)
15 April 2013

On the rising price of oil:

…2002 was a nothing year. The only numbers I was paying attention to in 2002 was for oil. A little wheel was turning at the back of my brain that noted that oil was beginning to act differently. Our firm specialises in the study of investment bubbles. We have the best data. Over the years, we have put together a database that has 330 bubbles of which about 40 are really important ones. What we found about the important bubbles is that every single one had burst completely back to the original trend. Three years up to something triple, and then three years down. They actually tend to go down a little more quickly than they went up, which is surprising. But they always broke. I used to specialise in asking financial audiences to give me an example of the paradigm shift, a major shift in a major financial asset class. And never was one offered. Six years ago I wrote about the paradigm shift in the New York Times. It had 100 years of oil prices – very volatile, but a very central, steady trend line of about 16 dollars a barrel in today's currency. But then around OPEC in 1972/3, the price trend leaps up to $36.
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