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Hah! A beauty Professor!

Into the collection with that one :D
 

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This is live from the NASDAQ as they prepare for the opening bell :D

nasdaq1.jpg
 
wayneL said:
This is live from the NASDAQ as they prepare for the opening bell :D
............
Click to expand...

Nice one Wayne....It's an omen!! I keep seeing em everywhere, all the time, it's a sign, more and more keep appearing, they've left the woods...
 
OH Yeah baby and I'm happy as a bear in the woods, or the rubbish can...scraping out all the fast food and crap i can......hit RIO on friday short with all I had and will see you in the bar after work for a BEER not a BEAR yyyyeeeehaaaaaa!!!!! RIDE THE BULLS AND SPANK THE BEARS

YAAAALLLLLLL come back now,ya hear
Don't you guys see the trend....... it's the same as the small dips and rises ...JUST BIGGER...........check your mapping over the last 5 years and see you'll see the same map at the high spots and then the lows.......but more enlarged...get out your bloody magnifying glasses

Prediction.....lower tomorrow with slow up trend thru the week then a good drop next week, unless it starts on Friday...possibly the news may be not so bad in three weeks when the US changes it's mind, but ......
either way I wont buy till then, and then expect the market to ramp a bit or fall a touch then ramp and level out......look at previous graphs

Some of U guys are so wrapped up in your own 'BULL'**** it's not funny......

Go short or go home I say...picked up $500 in interest aswell .... Knarley dudes....riding the waves of capitalism...GOD I CRACK ME UP!!!

FEEL FREE TO ABUSE ME, I ABUSE MYSELF NOW AND THEN.............
ESPECIALY WHEN I MAKE A QUID......BLOODY BOURBON...AAAARRGGGHHH

YOURS TRULY...THE PACER.......I usualy bet on horses ..... hehe
 
Pacer,
One more bit of rubbish like that last post and I'm going to ban you til you sober up, no more chances, stop bragging like a kid, you keep posting the same boast in every thread.

RichKid
moderator
 
Been Short on both BHP & MCC

Bit concerned though as BHP hit its Jan 06 high in Oz today -- the last 3 times its done this on its US chart it swiftly rebounded to a new High

MCC looks like heading for its 3rd test of support level --- waitng for the 4th when all hell should break out either way
 
coyotte said:
Been Short on both BHP & MCC

Bit concerned though as BHP hit its Jan 06 high in Oz today -- the last 3 times its done this on its US chart it swiftly rebounded to a new High

MCC looks like heading for its 3rd test of support level --- waitng for the 4th when all hell should break out either way
Click to expand...


Yeah I have a few bhp puts that were the WTFOTM(thanks for that phrase wayne!) type 3 days ago that are now nicely ITM. A little bit concerned bout the jan highs holding it up a bit. Base metals got smacked around overnight so it looks like it could break lower today(but I'm probably wrong ;) )

Fall I say, FALL!
 
More good news for bears next week

"I don't think we'll get much of a rally in front of next week's CPI and PPI numbers," said Owen Fitzpatrick, managing director private wealth management at Deutsche Bank, referring to key inflation data due next Tuesday and Wednesday.
"There is a lot of concern that if these numbers don't come in at reasonable levels, we'll see the market trade off further."

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...E2C-464B-96E5-DFB826300739}&siteid=mktw&dist=
 
Profits are up, inflation is up, interest rates are up.

This morning on Inside Business,

DR JOHN EDWARDS, CHIEF ECONOMIST, HSBC: It gave a lot more information, although there were some mixed messages. One important message which wasn't in the statement on Wednesday is that the Reserve Bank thinks core inflation has peaked at 3 per cent, which is where it is now, and it will remain around 3 per cent according to the Reserve Bank for the next year or two, which seems to imply that no further rate increases will be necessary.

ALAN KOHLER: Except that another way of looking at that is that it is forecasting 3 per cent inflation, which is the top of its band. Surely it will want to bring it down from that, won't it?

DR JOHN FLETCHER: No, I don't think so. I think if it is satisfied that headline inflation is coming down, as it will be, and if it is satisfied it's not going beyond the top of its target band, then it can - under our inflation targeting procedures in Australia - it can wait it out so long as it doesn't accelerate, which is what it is saying.

ALAN KOHLER: What are your odds now on another rate hike?

DR JOHN FLETCHER: It remains a very lively possibility. But I would say about 30 per cent, whereas the market is saying about 70 per cent. I think the market has got it a bit too high.


http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/content/2006/s1707348.htm

If he is correct, and his arguments appear to be the prevailing orthodoxy, then we have no need to panic and this bull market will merely pause.
If inflation is not as easily controlled, and I fear it may not be - then watch out!

If we do have a bear market, I don't think it will be a crash but rather a long slow fall over a long time say 4 years exacerbated by the slow failure of the resouces boom. I also think there will still be many successful stocks over this time. We will have interesting times unlike other times in stockmarket history.

Does anyone else think similarly or do you think I am talking rubbish?
 
Calling all bears, time to awake from hibernation. Some interesting notes from Nouriel Roubini

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Dec 21, 2006

Hard Landing Macro News of the Week:

* NAHB confidence index of home builders further down and at an historic low
* Building permits down another 3% after falling 5% in the previous month; as low as they were in 1997.
* Mortgage applications down 10% in the last week after some recovery in previous week
* GDP growth revised down to 2% on even worse residential construction
* Initial claims for unemployment benefits rising and continuing claims at their highest level since January
* Philly Fed index of manufacturing strongly down again for the third month in a row
* Stock market indexes falling today on US growth worries in spite of surge of M&A activity
* Foreclosures in mortgages increasing
* Subprime borrowers in trouble: study says 20% of them may go into foreclosure
* Distressed loan problems spreading from secured mortgage loans to unsecured consumer loans (see HSBC)
* Yield curve further inverted
* Transportation sector (leading indicator of economic activity) in trouble as bad news from Fedex, other transport companies and the Dow Transportation index fall suggest
* Major retailers showing slow retail sales growth (Circuit City, Best Buy, Wal-Mart)
* Same store sales among major retailers in latest December week (ICSC-UBS survey) up only 2.4% relative to a year ago (i.e., flat in real terms).
* Commodity prices falling, including copper and other metals (suggesting US and global economic slowdown).
* PPI inflation up again
* Current account deficit up in Q3 to $225 billion (annualized $900b)


Soft Landing Macro News of the Week:

* Housing starts up 6% after falling 14% the previous month; so they are still down 8% over the last two months
* Leading indicators index slightly up this month
* Dow Jones index reaching new highs before slumping towards the end of the week
* M&A activity reaching a frenzy; but academic study suggests that such M&A waves are followed by underperforming stock markets
* Have I missed anything else...or is that it all for the soft landing news....?
 
Knobby22 said:
Profits are up, inflation is up, interest rates are up.

This morning on Inside Business,

http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/content/2006/s1707348.htm

If he is correct, and his arguments appear to be the prevailing orthodoxy, then we have no need to panic and this bull market will merely pause.
If inflation is not as easily controlled, and I fear it may not be - then watch out!

If we do have a bear market, I don't think it will be a crash but rather a long slow fall over a long time say 4 years exacerbated by the slow failure of the resouces boom. I also think there will still be many successful stocks over this time. We will have interesting times unlike other times in stockmarket history.

Does anyone else think similarly or do you think I am talking rubbish?
Click to expand...

dear Knobby22,

I certainly do not think you are silly but Alan Kohler and the Reserve bank have as much chance of picking the future as you or I. Certainly listen to these guys but if you think differently you are just as likely to be correct. A bear correction is overdue, just a matter of when.

Garpal
 
What I am saying Gumnut is not short term corrections in the market but that high inflation is on the way caused by too much liquidity. This will cause a long slow major collapse as interest rates rise, stifling investment and commodity prices.
 
Knobby22 said:
What I am saying Gumnut is not short term corrections in the market but that high inflation is on the way caused by too much liquidity. This will cause a long slow major collapse as interest rates rise, stifling investment and commodity prices.
Click to expand...

dear Knobby22

Don't worry over a bear move. Just go bearish, buy puts if thats the way you feel. its not the end of the world if the market retraces. Go with the flow. Investment , commodity prices and interest rates have an "interesting" relationship.

I value your thoughts

Garpal
 
Comrades,
The problem generally is too much money and too much leverage. The chance of a long slow correction diminishes each day there isn't one. Due to the nature of our modern derivatives markets, it only takes one X factor to start the ball rolling for eg look at some of the commodities recently, not just falling back but correcting severely. Be prepared for the bear to gather pace after this reporting season is over maybe?. Then one thing will feed on another & before we know it we have a crash as all those intricate derivative products which are confusingly intertwined start to feed on each other, a self perpetuating downward spiral. Time for cash and or gold?.

Maybe this is the X factor?

--------------------------------------------------------------
Bubbles Brewing in Shanghai, Tokyo, and London

By Gary Dorsch

February 21, 2007

www.sirchartsalot.com

There is a bubble growing. Investors should be concerned about the risks,” said Cheng Siwei, vice-chairman of China’s National People’s Congress in a January 31st interview with the Financial Times. “But in a bull market, people will invest relatively irrationally.
Every investor thinks they can win. But many will end up losing. But that is their risk and their choice, ” Cheng warned. In what might develop into the third biggest stock market bubble in history, ranked alongside Japan’s Nikkei-225 of 1986-89, and the Nasdaq’s 1999-2000 bull run, the Shanghai Composite “A” share Index, restricted mainly to Chinese nationals, has posted a 140% gain over the past 12-months, after soaring 46% in the fourth-quarter of 2006 alone. And without deliberate market intervention, the A-share market could inflate into a Nasdaq-like bubble.

How Beijing decides to deal with the Shanghai bubble, can have a great impact on the outlook for the Chinese economy, global commodity markets, and exporters in the region from Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea. Will Beijing try to prick the bubble and set-off a steep correction, or carefully calibrate a series of tightening measures to take some steam out of the market and simply flatten it out?

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Dorsch/feb212007.html
 

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