The Bears Den (Bears only!)

[BIG BWACULL]

On the other hand

Is the Shanghai stock market in a Bubble?

It’s popular to call a market that triples in value within less than two years, a bubble, but seen from a different angle, the spectacular resurrection of Shanghai “A” share index might have corrected a grossly undervalued position, into closer alignment with the global benchmark

From 2001 thru 2005, China’s economy and the Shanghai “A” share market spent much of time moving in opposite directions. China was emerging as the world’s leading manufacturing power, its economy was growing at an frantic 9.5% pace, and exports were tripling, yet the Shanghai A share index, lost half of its value, sliding from a high of 2200 to below 1000 on June 6, 2005.

or is it catchin up for lost time ?

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Dorsch/feb212007.html

 

[Dr Doom]

Crunch time for the US markets this week with some sobering data to come out, which has some people a little uncomfortable if the forecast analysts consensus turns out to be close to the mark. A number of important reports and figures are due to be released, and some are due to be revised down, notably GDP.

Tonights action

Durable-goods orders - expected to be <down>
Consumer confidence - expected to be <down>
Existing-home sales - expected to be <up>

Wednesday night

GDP - expected to be <revision down> (less than 2% expect some fireworks)
Chicago PMI - expected to be <up>
New-home sales - expected to be <down>

If the US data is worse than consensus then expect a major correction to a fragile DOW, already at the bottom of this current trend channel. The problem for the ASX market will be coming on top of today's 'sell-off', a compound correction which may give us the first negative week for some 2 months.

 

[CanOz]

Is it just me or has a little selling pressure crept into the market this afternoon?

 

[greggy]

Is it just me or has a little selling pressure crept into the market this afternoon?

Yes, after a strong run, a bit of profit taking was overdue.

 

[justjohn]

After 6 consecutive weeks of positive gains, fellow bears were a big chance this week :

After 7 consecutive weeks of positive gains,fellow bears we are a BIGGER chance this week. Go you good thing :beat: :bananasmi

 

[Dr Doom]

Is it just me or has a little selling pressure crept into the market this afternoon?

hi CanOz,
I think it's indicative of what might happen when the real deal arrives, ie it will be breathtakingly savage. See BHP intraday chart just drop off the edge

How are you positioned for a market correction?. Have you gone short? What instruments do you use?.

DD

 

[numbercruncher]

This aint no ordinary Bear!

 

[theasxgorilla]

This aint no ordinary Bear!

I wouldn't even call it a bear market yet. 3 weeks and a little over 10% after 4 years of nearly unprecedented good times hardly constitutes a bear market. The bears have been chanting the same 'debt bubble' song since before Greenspan's famous 'irrational exuberance' comment over 10 years ago. The only thing that has changed is that the mainstream media have been chanting along with you for the last 3 weeks...making it seem as if you actually knew something. Enjoy your moment in the sun...and remember, a stopped clock is right twice a day.

 

[insider]

a stopped clock is right twice a day.

I like the quote

 

[theasxgorilla]

This aint no ordinary Bear!

...you're right...it's a muppet!

 

[numbercruncher]

 

[Knobby22]

I have argued the bull case for a while now and have long been a bull but I am now getting bearish.

Inflation in the US and the world is rising, requiring higher interest rates hile demand falls efffecting the world. Other countries are also producing inflation internally such as China which will be exported to the world once the US dollar starts rising again.

Below I am quoting Colin Twiggs from Incredible Charts who I greatly respect following. Unfortunately I can't produce the Chart.

"The yield curve remains our most accurate tool for predicting recessions. The only problem is that signals can occur 12 to 18 months in advance of a down-turn — leaving plenty of time for doubts to grow as the market keeps rising.

Every time there has been a significant rise in short-term interest rates over the last 45 years, a recession has followed — except on those rare occasions where long-term rates have shown a corresponding rise, maintaining a positive yield curve. In a nutshell: whenever the yield spread (maroon line) falls to zero, a recession follows."

This has happened. A recession in the US will occur causing a fall in the stock market. Oil also isn't helping.

 

[Whiskers]

I have argued the bull case for a while now and have long been a bull but I am now getting bearish.

Inflation in the US and the world is rising, requiring higher interest rates hile demand falls efffecting the world. Other countries are also producing inflation internally such as China which will be exported to the world once the US dollar starts rising again.

Below I am quoting Colin Twiggs from Incredible Charts who I greatly respect following. Unfortunately I can't produce the Chart.

"The yield curve remains our most accurate tool for predicting recessions. The only problem is that signals can occur 12 to 18 months in advance of a down-turn ”” leaving plenty of time for doubts to grow as the market keeps rising.

Every time there has been a significant rise in short-term interest rates over the last 45 years, a recession has followed ”” except on those rare occasions where long-term rates have shown a corresponding rise, maintaining a positive yield curve. In a nutshell: whenever the yield spread (maroon line) falls to zero, a recession follows."

This has happened. A recession in the US will occur causing a fall in the stock market. Oil also isn't helping.

Yeah, I noticed that too Knobby. I'm feeling a bit bearish for the US too, but not sure how far and wide it will spread this time.

I believe this is the chart you mention.

 

[Knobby22]

Thanks Whiskers for reproducing the chart. Much appreciated.