Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

"That was the week that was... in Australia"

September 10, 2007

Pity Australia Did Not Awake To Mining Potential Of African Countries Earlier
Source: www.minesite.com/aus.html

In the very recent past Australian mining companies who ventured into Africa got short shrift from local investors. Basically that is the reason why Anvil Mining, Equinox Resources and Red Back Mining took additional listings in Canada where money was more forthcoming and ratings were higher. The trend has changed, however, and at the Africa DownUnder conference in Perth last week there was a huge attendance and it was reported that no fewer than 125 ASX listed resource companies are now operating in African countries.
As one of the organisers reported “the Australian contingent in Africa is now starting to generate a string of mining success stories and this is having a flow-on effect of attracting new Australian players to Africa’s underdeveloped mineral opportunities. While this success profile is not much more than five years old, as most had humble beginnings, little cash in the bank and few believers – the new breed of Australian-African exploration and mining partnerships is proving that Africa is far less ‘hot and scarey’ than this popular but increasingly outdated stereotype.”

There is clearly still a degree of ignorance, however, even among the organisers of the Conference, when they say that Australia also recognises that Africa it is not one, single amorphous mass, but individual states keen on attracting foreign investors able to work within black empowerment protocols. For a start Africa is made up of 51 different countries, not states, with their own governments and languages and only South Africa has so far introduced black empowerment. Some of these countries are keener on outside investment than others; some have a pretty shakey legal and political systems; some have more or less infrastructure; but most have highly prospective mineralization.

It therefore tends to be unwise to generalise about Africa as a whole. Nevertheless Roger Donnelly, chief economist of the Australian Government’s Export Finance and Insurance Corporation contends that greater stability across Africa is contributing to that continent’s resources boom. He noted that at least 13 countries had significantly improved their stability ratings by last year compared to their standing in 1996. As a result Foreign Direct Investment inflows into Africa are booming, if from a low base, and had nearly tripled by late last year with South Africa and Egypt as the biggest beneficiaries.

Again he slightly missed the point. South Africa and Egypt have long outpaced most of the rest of the countries in Africa as South Africa was once the biggest gold producer in the world and Egypt has long had a strong economy based on products other than mining. In fact apart from two Australian companies, Centamin Egypt and Gippsland, little exploration has taken place there in modern times. South Africa, of course, is the land of Black Empowerment and its misuse has deterred many companies from getting involved there. Mr Donnelly ended up on a slightly patronising note by saying that “Africa now measures up okay internationally and its World Bank ratings performance is no worse than some of its competitors outside Africa such as Papua New Guinea, Laos, the Philippines and Indonesia.”

Again a tone of generalisation creeps into his comments as it does when he says that debt relief has been a contributing factor to Africa’s greater stability as well as conflict resolution and better economic performance. The Democratic Republic of Congo is a case in point as there is still conflict in the north west of this huge country, but it does not affect Equinox and Anvil down on the Zambian border, nor Mawson West in its joint venture with Anvil in Katanga province. What he failed to mention was that Australia is quite late into Africa, well behind Canada and the UK, but it is China that has really made the running and will end up with some of the best mining projects as a reward.

Driven by its demand for raw materials China moved much more quickly in many African countries that its rivals around the world. According to Standard Bank there are now 700 Chinese companies active in nearly 50 of the African countries which means that there are very few exceptions. Small wonder that exports to China have risen by 40 per cent every year since 2002 and there are clear signs that China is intent on acquiring primary production of oil and metals as world prices rise. Unlike the US, which always seems intent on exerting influence through loans and political interference, the Chinese get to the nitty-gritty by installing railways, roads, water pipelines and other vital infrastructure.

Credit should be given to Australian companies such as Resolute, Adamus, Gryphon, AIM Resources, Paladin, Albidon and Zambezi Resources which have been working in various countries of West Africa for some time, but there is room for plenty more. And one thing they can be sure of is that they will get a good hearing in London as their projects become more advanced.
 
September 16, 2007

That Was The Week That Was … In Australia

By Our Man In Oz
www.minesite.com/aus.html

Minews. Good morning Australia, it looks like you had a quiet week?

Oz. Taken as five trading days, that’s a fair description. There was a degree of fear and loathing about on Monday, and then a steady, rising trend for the rest of the week. The net result was we effectively ended back where we started which made for an interesting hunt through the sales data to find much price movement.

Minews. Surely the gold sector performed well with the price closing the week here at US$716 an ounce. Good old Lex of the Financial Times set it on the move, as you will have seen, with its negative comment on gold on August 25th. Its comment about the banking infrastructure developing is also pertinent in view of the subprime mortgage shambles that was developed at the time.

Oz. Amazing some of the rubbish these bright young graduates come out with. Sadly the extra US$10/oz added to the gold price in London came after we had closed, but it certainly sets the Australian market for an interesting opening on Monday, and something for your readers to watch.

The story is best told through prices. Leading gold producers such as Dominion (DOM), Kingsgate (KCN), and Troy (TRY), moved a few cents either way. Dominion was up A3 cents (1 per cent) at A$3.19. Troy was down A8 cents (2.5 per cent) at A$3.12. Kingsgate was up A24 cents (5 per cent) at A$4.89, while Mundo (MUN) was perhaps the best of the gold stocks, adding A8 cents (15 per cent) to A61 cents on excellent exploration news from its South American operations. The biggest of the local gold stocks, Newcrest (NCM) was in a trading halt for the week as it completed a A$2 billion capital raising to extinguish its hedge book.

Minews. Another interesting move for Master Lex to take on board. It is only going to spend this money because its shareholders demand full exposure to the gold price.

Oz. Precisely. Among the gold explorers, and emerging producers, which should show some benefit from the higher gold price next week, we saw Adamus slip A1 cent to A54 cents, and St Barbara (SBM) ease by the same amount to A52 cents. Crescent (CRE) and Wedgetail (WTE) didn’t move from their respective prices of A36 cents and A17 cents despite good news from their operations, in the case of Crescent, and a management shake-up at Wedgetail.

Minews. Rather than go through the sectors, which all sound rather flat, why not pick out the best of the moves and any special situations?

Oz. That might be more fun, because it means we can start with Consolidated Minerals (CSM) which has moved up a notch on the novelty scale as the warring bidders outdo each other, and the board of ConsMin is forced to change its mind on almost a daily basis. The latest twist, and bear in mind this might all change on Monday, has our Ukrainian friend, Gennadiy Bogulyubov, upping his offer price to A$4.50, which tops the A$4.10 last offered by Brian Gilbertson. But, to spice things up it’s worth noting that the stock itself closed the week at A$4.70, after briefly touching a 12-month high of A$4.78 during Friday trade.

Minews. Can anyone in Australia figure out what game is being played?

Oz. Not really. Perhaps it’s because so many games are being played elsewhere with rugby finals meshing neatly with our Aussie Rules finals that the boys on the market have decided to play games as well. More seriously, that closing price of A$4.70 lifts the value of ConsMin over the A$1 billion mark. At this time last year you could have bought the business for A$380 million.

Minews. Terrific news for shareholders, but you seem to be hinting that someone is going to be left holding an expensive parcel.

Oz. Precisely. If you pay A$1 billion for a business you expect it to generate at least A$200 million in annual pre-tax earnings, and that seems a big ask for a relatively small producer of manganese, chromite and nickel.

Minews. We will watch with interest. Time now to run through the sectors, even if they were a bit flat.

Oz. Iron ore stocks looked like the gold sector, some up, some down. Fortescue Metals (FMG) came within a whisker of cracking the A$40 mark for the first time in months. It posted sales up A$39.80 on Friday, before closing at A$39.19, for a gain of A$1.44 (3.8 per cent). Sundance Resources (SDL) was the subject of merger rumours with Gindalbie (GBG). Sundance rose A10.5 cents (20.5 per cent) to A61.5 cents, and Gindalbie fell A9.5 cents (5.6 per cent) to A$1.60. Grange Resources (GRR) added A14 cents (6.2 per cent) to A$2.39, with all of that rise coming on Friday. Midwest Corporation (MIS) rose A12 cents (4.5 per cent) to A$2.79, but Atlas (AGO) lost A5 cents (3.2 per cent) to A$1.47, and BC Iron (BCI), slipped A1 cent to A$1.19.

Uranium stocks were also mixed. Paladin (PDN) rose A32 cents (5.4 per cent) to A$6.27 partly on takeover chatter. Marathon (MTN) was down A36 cents (9.3 per cent) to A$3.49, and Uranex (UNX) fell A8 cents (7.3 per cent) to A$1.02. Nickels performed a similar trick. Some up, some down. Mincor (MCR) added A4 cents (1.1 per cent) to A$3.60. Western Areas (WSA) was down A11 cents (2.5 per cent) to A$4.27, and Jubilee (JBM) rose A79 cents (4.9 per cent) to A$16.85.

Minews. Thanks Oz.

Oz. Before disappearing for a week, just one final point worth noting. The new float game appears to have come to a grinding halt. Most of the floats which have made it to market over the past two months are underwater, a direct result of being priced in May/June and floated in July/August. The latest loss maker for stags was Avonlea (AVZ) which joined the market on Friday with its A20 cent shares starting at A18 cents, and ending the day at A17.5 cents, a rather painful 12.5 per cent shortfall, and a sobering message for the 20, or so, floats planning to list.

Minews. There might even be a bit of re-pricing underway as we speak. Bit like the way the bookies have re-priced the English rugby team, but hopefully not quite so drastic.
 
September 23, 2007

That Was The Week That Was … In Australia
By Our Man In Oz
Must visit => www.minesite.com/aus.html

Minews. Good morning Australia, you must be celebrating the rise in the gold price?

Oz. We certainly are, plus a widespread expectation that the iron ore price is likely to rise further next year. The combination of gold and iron underpinned most activity in Australian mining shares last week, supported by a modest return of confidence to the base metal sector, and more intrigue around the battle for Consolidated Minerals.

Minews. Gold first, please.

Oz. Most shares rose, as you would expect with the gold price itself rising from US$716.35 an ounce to Friday’s close in London at US$737/oz. But, it is interesting that not all stocks were up. Weighing on the minds of some investors was the damaging effect of the Australian dollar which is moving higher in sympathy with commodity prices, especially oil and gold. Last week’s US$20.65/oz rise in the U.S. dollar gold price was hurt by a 3 per cent rise in the value of the Aussie dollar which went from US84.39 cents to US86.92 cents. The end result is that our gold price actually fell A$1.15 an ounce. It was the dollar effect which probably lay behind Troy Resources (TRY) slipping A2 cents to A$3.10.

With that note of caution it is worth looking at the good news, which starts with Newcrest (NCM), the biggest of the local goldminers, and a company feeling liberated after extinguishing its hedging programme. Newcrest steamed ahead by a very impressive A$5.68 (24.8 per cent) to close the week at A$28.56, down a fraction on the 12-month high of A$29.67 reached on Thursday.

Other gold stock moves included: Kingsgate (KCN), up A46 cents (9.4 per cent) to A$5.35. Centamin (CNT), up A15 cents (12.2 per cent) to A$1.38. Lihir (LGL), up A46 cents (13.6 per cent) to A$3.84. Apex (AXM), up A13 cents (13.4 per cent) to A$1.08. Leyshon (LRL), up A1.5 cents (2.8 per cent) to A54 cents, and Avoca (AVO), which reported another excellent suite of assays from its Higginsville project, up A29 cents (17.2 per cent) to A$1.98, a 12-month high.

Minews. Iron ore now, please?

Oz. The star, as ever, was Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) up an impressive A$3.42 (8.7 per cent) to A$42.61 for the week, but down fractionally on the all-time high reached on Thursday of A$43.44. Fortescue, and its chief executive, Andrew Forrest, have been hogging the headlines recently with Russian investors pouring into the stock, and Forrest announcing plans to give away A$100 million of his fortune to charities and needy family members.

MInews. Joining Frank Giustra, Clinton et al, I suppose. You can’t buy your way into heaven.

TT. Precisely. Other iron ore stocks on the move included: Midwest (MIS) up A25 cents (8.9 per cent) to A$3.04. Atlas Iron (AGO), up A11 cents (7.5 per cent) to A$1.58. Gindalbie (GBG), up A10 cents (6.3 per cent) to A$1.70, and Grange Resources (GRR), up A20 cents (8.4 per cent) to A$2.59.

Another interesting mover, but more in hope than because of anything substantial, was Cazaly Resources (CAZ), the small explorer which thought it had won the rights to a Rio Tinto project called Shovelanna. Despite repeated court losses, Cazaly said it was now taking its appeals to the Australian High Court, which is the end of the legal road. A handful of happy speculators supported this latest twist, lifting the stock by A3.5 cents (11.5 per cent) to A34 cents.

Minews. Time for a quick look at the base metals and then any special situations?

Oz. Nickel stocks firmed, while copper and zinc shares were mixed. Among the nickels, Sally Malay (SMY) was very strong, adding A77 cents (19.5 per cent) to A$4.72. Mincor (MCR) rose A53 cents (14.7 per cent) to A$4.13, and Jubilee (JBM) gained a more modest A38 cents (2.2 per cent) to A$17.23. Oxiana (OXR) was the best of the copper producers, but also a beneficiary of the gold price, rising A25 cents (7.2 per cent) to A3.70, and Kagara (KZL) the best of the zinc stocks, adding 74 cents (14.3 per cent) to A$5.93.

Minews. And the specials to finish, please?

Oz. Consolidated Minerals (CSM) remains the outstanding special down this way. On Friday, the stock hit a new 12-month high of A$5, which is A50 cents (11.1 per cent) above the highest bid on the table, the A$4.50 bid from the Ukrainian player in the game, Palmary Enterprises. The closing price on Friday was A$4.91, which represents a gain for the week of A21 cents (4.5 per cent), and certainly points to the market expecting a fresh round of offers next week from some of the four bidders pursuing ConsMin. But, and this is becoming very important, at A$4.91 ConsMin is valued at a very generous A$1.12 billion, roughly three-times what is was valued at less than a year ago. There’s an awful lot of ego in the latest market for ConsMin.

Other special situations worth noting for investors outside Australia is that a few dodgy deals surfaced during the week. Tony Rechner, one time boss of a mineral explorer called Eagle Bay Resources, was found guilty of making false statements in regard to a project in South Australia about five years ago. He waits to be sentenced. The stock itself fell A0.6 of a cent (11.3 per cent) to A4.6 cents, and two former directors of Chameleon Mining were charged with providing false and misleading information in that company’s 2003 prospectus. They’ll have their day in court next year. The stock itself fell half a cent (12.8 per cent) to A3.4 cents.

Minews. Sounds like your regulators are having a busy time?

Oz. Well, you would expect that after five years of boom. It’s probably more surprising that we haven’t seen more activity from the investigators, though it is good to know someone’s awake.

Minews. Thanks Oz.
 
September 30, 2007

That Was The Week That Was … In Australia

By Our Man In Oz
www.minesite.com/aus.html

Minews. Good morning Australia, back to the boom for you?

Oz. Remarkable, really. One bad month in August and then right back to the China-driven resource thesis, complete with record prices virtually across the mining and energy sectors. Iron ore stocks, powered by talk of another price rise when the miners meet the steel mills, led the way. Uranium stocks made a useful return despite no movement in the commodity price. Base metals improved, but gold stocks were surprisingly muted, possible a result of all this good news boosting the Australian currency back close to the US90 cents mark.

Minews. You might see more action among your gold stocks next week after London bullion prices closed above US$740 an ounce on Friday.

Oz. You’re probably right. There is growing support for gold but every time it makes a run the Aussie dollar chimes in and knocks the gloss off the gain. Let’s start this week’s call of the card by looking at the gold stocks just to make that point. The price of the metal stuck nicely above the US$730/oz mark, which must be the longest it’s remained that high, ever when looking back to those remarkable days in 1980 when it was up, and down, in a flash.

Despite the strong gold price we saw the sector leader, Newcrest (NCM) slip A56 cents (1.9 per cent) to A$28, largely because of a very weak close to business on Friday. At one stage on the last day of the week Newcrest was trading at A$29.50, a fraction short of its 12-month high of A$29.67 reached last week. Then the wheels fell off. Investors dumped the stock, and Newcrest ground to a loss for the week.

Minews. Very strange. What frightened the horse?

Oz. Possibly the dollar effect. Possibly the fact that the stock has run a long way in a short time. It was down around the A$24 mark just two weeks ago. Possibly because it’s a long weekend down this way with the exchange closed on Monday, and the winners decided to take their money off the table to watch a bit of football. Not only have we got the rugby union in France to watch, but there’s also the grand finals of league and Aussie rules to get through on Saturday and Sunday.

Minews. Poor you. Back to the prices, please.

Oz. Continuing with the golds, we saw Adamus (ADU) deliver one of the better performances with a gain of A8 cents (15.3 per cent) to A60 cents. Sino Gold (SGX) had a good week, adding A40 cents (5.6 per cent) to A$7.52. Troy (TRY) added A15 cents (4.8 per cent) to A$3.25. Kingsgate (KCN) creep A2 cents higher to A$5.37, but Tanami (TAM) dropped half-a-cent to A13 cents.

Minews. Let’s switch to the iron ore companies because they certainly seem to be the hottest sector.

Oz. Very much so, despite on-going disputes with government over questions of rail and port access. Midwest Corporation (MIS) was in the thick of the political flak last week with the state government in Western Australia saying it would tear up a 1973 State Agreement covering Midwest’s iron ore deposits. There was much huffing and puffing from all sides which, naturally, got the headlines. But, on the market investors ignored the heated, and allegedly negative, atmosphere by buying merrily to lift the stock by A32 cents (10.5 per cent) to a Friday close of A$3.36, down slightly on the intra-day high of A$3.42.

Minews. No publicity is bad publicity?

Oz. Something like that. Elsewhere, Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) the darling of the day traders and a few Russian oligarchs, cleared the A$50 barrier and looks like it could be on its way to a century at a pace which would even impress Australia’s star wicket keeper batsman, Adam Gilchrist. The official numbers for FMG were a rise of A$5.08 (11.9 per cent) to a Friday close of A$47.69, though in the intra-day trade on Friday it hit an all-time of A$50.18. A year ago, just to make you smile (or wince) you could have loaded up the cart with a pile of FMG’s at A$8.50.

The other iron ore play which caught attention was the proposed merger of Gindalbie Metals (GBG) and Sundance Resources (SDL). Long speculated, the deal was greeted with mixed feelings on the market. Sundance rose, and Gindalbie fell, initially. By the end of the week, Sundance was up A10 cents (13.5 per cent) to A84 cents, and Gindalbie was almost even at A$1.69, technically down A1 cent, but it could have been much worse with the stock sliding as low as A$1.47 in the days after the deal was announced.

Minews. It has just been so obvious for a long time, especially with George Jones bringing them both up here on a simultaneous road show in the summer. But is there a real benefit to shareholders and if so, which ones?

Oz. I will take a look. Territory Resources (TTY), the new play thing of the very entrepreneurial Michael Kiernan had a good week after announcing the loading of its first shipment of ore from its Frances Creek mine at the port of Darwin. You wrote about it last week and got the shiploading spot-on. The market was much happier with Michael doing what he’s best at, mining, and less of the corporate games he had previously been playing at his old roost, Consolidated Minerals (CSM). Territory rose A11 cents (12.4 per cent) to A$1 on news of its ship sailing, while the one-time takeover target (or should that be revenge target) ConsMin was steady at A$4.91 with the multiple bidders all appearing to have taken time off to consider what next in a bizarre corporate game.

Cape Lambert (CFE) joined in the iron ore stampede, adding A7 cents (12.9 per cent) to A61 cents, and Atlas Iron (AGO) was up A30 cents (18.9 per cent) to A$1.88 with investors at a Gold Coast seminar impressed with a presentation by Atlas chief executive, David Flanagan.

Minews. Time for a quick look at the uranium sector you mentioned earlier.

Oz. Yes, uranium was back in favour thanks largely to an expansion announcement at the Ranger mine of Energy Resources of Australia (ERA), confirmation that BHP Billiton’s Olympic Dam mine is the world’s biggest single blob of copper and uranium, plus one of the biggest deposits of gold and a host of other metals. ERA rose A$2.55 (14.5 per cent) to A$20.09, and BHP was driven up A$3.55 (8.6 per cent) to A$44.55, down a little on the all time high of A$45.09 reached on Tuesday.

But, the point of looking at the big boys of Aussie uranium is that the good news trickled down, lifting all boats as a rising tide always does, and Australian rushes further towards its future as the world’s primary source of uranium. Uranex (UNX) rose A25 cents (27 per cent) to A$1.17, reclaiming much of its lost ground. Toro (TOE) was up A13 cents (19 per cent) to A81 cents, and Marathon (MTN) added A21 cents (7 per cent) to A$3.24.

Minews. Thanks Oz.
 
October 06, 2007

That Was The Week That Was … In Australia
By Our Man In Oz
www.minesite.com/aus.html

Minews. Good morning Australia, glad that you could tear yourself away from sporting matters to discuss the market?

Oz. Always a pleasure talking to London, especially when there’s a bit of news about, which is what we had last week, and not all of it good.

Minews. Do tell?

Oz. Prices movements were not too bad. Overall, the mining market slipped just a couple of points. The real news was the shock caused by two proposed iron ore projects being caught in the sub-prime credit backwash. Cape Lambert (CFE) was forced to walk away from a funding deal with a potential Chinese partner, and Sphere Investments (SPH) had a similar problem with a Saudi investment group.

On the market, Cape Lambert fell by A10 cents (16.3 per cent) to A51.5 cents, and Sphere fell A71 cents (17 per cent) to A$3.44 as investors digested the loss of financial backers. Interestingly, part of the blame for Cape Lambert losing support was attributed to the continued rise in the value of the Australian dollar which is starting to cause real concern in regards to future profits.

Minews. Presumably that news about funding and the rising dollar flowed through to other iron ore stocks?

Oz. As you would expect, though it wasn’t all gloom. Grange (GRR) fell A30 cents (10.6 per cent) to A$2.52. Gindalbie (GBG) slipped A12 cents (6 per cent) to A$1.57, while it’s takeover target, Sundance (SDL) was off A6 cents (7 per cent). Atlas (AGO) suffered less with a decline of A6 cents (3.2 per cent). On the other hand, two iron ore plays actually rose. Fortescue Metals (FMG), which scored a fresh legal win over BHP Billiton in its battle for access to rail networks, gained $A2.02 (4.2 per cent) to A$49.71, and Territory Resources (TTY) made a bigger than expected inaugural shipment of iron ore to China and added A13 cents (13 per cent) to A$1.13.

Minews. Tell us more about the dollar because it seems to be a major influence in the current market.

Oz. It certainly is. During the week the Australian Government’s commodities research agency (ABARE) reported that if the Aussie currency holds its current level of US88 cents, or creeps higher, it could knock A$9 billion off revenue from sales of minerals and oil in the current financial year. The strength of the currency is causing most overseas investors to take a second look at the Australian market which is also being hit by sharply rising costs.

Minews. We might take a closer look at that next week, especially in relation to some of the deals underway, such as the Gem Diamonds takeover of Kimberley Diamond. Time for more prices, please?

Oz. Let’s go through the sectors to put the week into perspective. Gold stocks, like the iron ore companies, were mixed. Kingsgate (KCN) and Andean (AND) welcomed the decision of Kingsgate to quit Andean and focus on its gold assets in Thailand. News of the exit saw Kingsgate rise A13 cents (2.4 per cent) to A$5.50, while Andean bolted away on news of its new-found freedom, adding A19 cents (17.7 per cent) to A$1.26. Other upward moves among the gold stocks came from Resolute (RSG), which announced a fresh development program for its assorted mine assets, adding A12 cents (6.5 per cent) to A$1.95, and Apex (AXM) gained A4 cents (3.6 per cent) to A$1.14.

On the way down, we saw Gryphon (GRY) slip A3 cents (5.6 per cent) to A50 cents, though the fall comes after a strong run which took the stock as high as A60 cents last week, compared with the A28 cents at this time last year. Other gold stocks on the wrong side of the ledger included Troy (TRY), off A19 cents (5.8 per cent) to A$3.06. Adamus, down half-a-cent to A59.5 cents, while Lihir (LGL) was steady at A$3.94 despite announcing plans to start hunting for takeover targets.

Minews. Let’s a have a look at the base metals, and then finish with uranium and any special situations, please?

Oz. The nickel sector was all over the place. Minara (MRE) was up A4 cents to A$6.25, Mirabela (MBN) which is making good progress with its Santa Rita project in Brazil, was down A7 cents to A$5.67, with the percentage moves too small to bother about. Western Areas (WSA) was up A1 cent, while Jubilee (JBM) was the surprise loser of the week, slipping A$1.25 (7.2 per cent) to A$16.11.

Copper stocks were equally mixed. Oxiana (OXR) slipped A9 cents (2.3 per cent) to A$3.79, while CopperCo (CUO) was up A1.5 cents (1.3 per cent) to A$1.18. Zinc stocks performed a similar trick. CBH (CBH) fell A2.5 cents (4.7 per cent) to A50.5 cents, while AIM Resources (AIM) was up A3.5 cents (17 per cent) to A24 cents.

Uranium stocks suffered from the latest decline in the price of the metal, though it is worth reflecting on a conversation your Man in Oz had with the chief executive of Paladin Resources, John Borshoff, during the week. He pointed out the extremely erratic nature of the spot market for uranium, and the fact that the spot price is now below the long-term contract price, which is an extremely interesting situation, and perhaps another outworking of the sub-prime situation as speculators liquidate uranium exposure to settle their accounts. Among the u-stocks, Uranex (UNX) fell A12 cents (10.2 per cent) A$1.05, Uran (URA) eased A2 cents (5.7 per cent) to A33 cents, and Paladin (PDN) lost A92 cents (11.8 per cent) to A$6.82.

Minews. And the specials.

Oz. Nothing fresh to report on Consolidated Minerals (CSM) except that it continues to trade a country mile above the last official bid of A$4.50. The stock, technically, closed up A4 cents on the week at A$4.95, but could go any direction as the various bidders sort themselves out. Kimberley Diamond (KIM) is another special worth watching as it has a bid on the table at A70 cents from London-based Gem Diamonds but trading on-market refuses to clear that price. The stock closed last week at A66.5 cents, down half-a-cent. Kimberley’s close associate, Blina Diamonds (BDI) was down A2 cents (7.4 per cent) to A25 cents, but touch a 12-month low of A24 cents on Wednesday.

Minews. Thanks Oz, we might take a closer look at Kimberley and Blina early next week.
 
October 14, 2007

That Was The Week That Was … In Australia
By Our Man In Oz
Visit ==> www.minesite.com/aus.html

Minews. Good morning Australia, how was your week?

Oz.Strong, but not too strong. Most stocks moved higher, some faster than others, with a handful going into reverse. The gold sector improved, but not dramatically. If there was a favourite among the various categories it was iron ore, again. A series of forecasts during the week claimed that the Chinese have steeled themselves for a price hike of as much as 25 per cent when producers and customers settle later in the year.

Minews. A price rise of that magnitude should answer any doubts about the future performance of new entrants such as Fortescue Metals (FMG).

Oz. It certainly would, and you could see the increased optimism flow into the stock early in the week when it rushed up to a 12-month high of A$56.20, before easing later. FMG closed the week at A$52.10, for a rise of A$2.39 (4.8 per cent), but the real way to look at the performance is to go back just two months when FMG dipped as low as A$25.04 during the August sell-off. At its closing price on Friday, the stock had gained 108 per cent over 42 trading days.

Minews. Remarkable. But I find it a bit worrying.

Oz. What’s even more remarkable is that the company is now capitalised at A$14.5 billion, and FMG’s chief executive, Andrew Forrest is walking around with paper fortune valued at A$5.3 billion, before you add up his interests in other companies – and just to help your readers that converts into £2.34 billion sterling.

Minews. Not bad for a man running a company which is yet to actually produce anything.

Oz. Another good point, because as FMG gets closer it is possible that the stock will achieve the forecasts being made down this way that it’s heading for a price of A$100 a share.

Minews. Careful, careful. Remember Poseidon. We’ll watch with interest. Now for the rest of the iron ore players, and then take us through the other sectors, please?

Oz. Atlas Iron (AGO) was the second iron ore star of the week, rising A42 cents (23 per cent) to close on Friday at A$2.24. That price was down a fraction on Friday’s intra-day high of A$2.33, which was also a 12-month high. Helping the entire sector along was a takeover move by Murchison Metals (MMX) on Midwest Corporation (MIS). These two are battling for top roles in the emerging mid-west iron ore province just to the south of the main Pilbara region of Western Australia. It’s a complex situation which has more to do with railway systems and ports, but the result on the market was that Murchison rose by A31 cents (6.2 per cent) to A$5.32, and Midwest rocketed up by A$1.56 (46.5 per cent) to A$4.91, down a little on its 12-month high of A$4.98 reached on Thursday and Friday.

Other iron ore movers included: Grange (GRR) which added A18 cents (7.1 per cent) to A$2.70. Cape Lambert (CFE) which shrugged off its problems with a troubled financing deal to rise A3 cents (5.8 per cent) to A54.5 cents, and a newcomer to the iron ore game, the somewhat inappropriately-named Great Gold (GBL) which reported encouraging assays from its Mt Bevan prospect in Western Australia and promptly jumped A1.3 cents, which doesn’t sound a lot, but actually represents a 43 per cent rise as the closing price on Friday was A4.3 cents. Other, better-known iron ore stocks did not perform as well. Gindalbie (GBG) gained A1 cent to A$1.58, and its acquisition target, Sundance Resources (SDL) was steady at A58 cents.

Minews. Gold stocks now, please.

Oz. Not a lot to report really, which is odd because the gold price is looking extremely attractive. The problem down this way is that there’s too much to choose from with money that would normally make its way into gold finding a home in the iron ore, uranium, nickel and petroleum sectors

The best of the gold stocks included: Apex (AXM) which reported excellent assays from drilling at Wiluna, and rose A19 cents (16.7 per cent) to A$1.33. Norton Goldfields (NGF) which acquired the Paddington Mill and leases near Kalgoorlie earlier this year is finally attracting some interest, rising A9 cents (33.3 per cent) to A38 cents. Andean Resources (AND) was another beneficiary of good news from the field in the form of a resource upgrade which helped the stock add A17 cents (13.5 per cent) to A$1.43. Troy (TRY) rose A7 cents (2.3 per cent) to A$3.13. Perseus (PRU) was up A4 cents (2.8 per cent) to A$1.44, and Adamus (ADU) managed a rise of half-a-cent to A60 cents.

Minews. Was there much among the uranium stocks?

Oz. Corporate activity was the most interesting news in that area. There were reports that Rio Tinto is close to offloading its big Kintyre project in Western Australia where uranium mining remains banned. That was followed by the announcement of a merger between Monaro Mining (MRO) and Uranium King (UKL), a move greeted with a yawn by investors who knocked A3 cents off Monaro which slipped to A99 cents, and added A1 cent to Uranium King. The sector leader, Paladin Resources (PDN) was also a shade weaker, losing A5 cents to A$6.77.

Minews. Any other corporate news, or sector worth noting.

Oz. Nickel stocks were up fractionally. Jubilee (JBM) was the best of the bunch adding A$1.29 (8 per cent) to A$17.40. Sally Malay (SMY), rose A37 cents (7.7 per cent) to A$5.16. Western Areas (WSA) added A7 cents (1.4 per cent) to A$5.16, and Mincor (MCR) had a strong end to the week with a gain of A22 cents (5.1 per cent) to A$4.52, but thanks mainly to a promising copper discovery in New South Wales.

The big corporate game, Act 7 (or is it 8?), was Consolidated Minerals (CSM) which received a revised A$4.50 offer from Brian Gilbertson’s Pallinghurst Resources. Gilbo said this was his final (cross my heart and hope to die) price. The market yawned. ConsMin closed the week at A$4.79, above his best price, but down A16 cents (3.2 per cent) over the week – and everyone prayed that the game might soon be over.

Speaking of games, well done to England for getting into the finals of the rugby. If anyone beats Australia we expect them to win the tournament, so keep going.

Minesite. Thanks Oz.
 
That Was The Week That Was … In Australia
By Our Man In Oz | Oct 21, 2007
www.minesite.com

Minews. Good morning Australia, it looks like another good week for your gold and iron ore stocks?
Oz. Up to a point. The tone for most of the week was positive, but it weakened quite noticeably on Friday, and that might be the trend for next week following New York’s sharp fall after we had closed.

Minews. True, but surely that’s good for the gold sector?

Oz. It should be. We certainly saw most gold stocks improve after several curiously poor weeks when the price of the metal was rising but gold explorers and miners refused to budge. Last week we saw a much stronger rally among the golds, led by the sector leader and plum takeover target, Newcrest (NCM). On Friday, Newcrest touched a 12-month high of A$30.20, before easing in the final hours to close the week at A$29.93, up A$1.84 (6.5 per cent) for the week. Since closing out its hedge book little more than a month ago, Newcrest has added the best part of A$8.

At least two other gold stocks repeated the Newcrest trick of reaching a fresh 12-month high on Friday, before easing fractionally. Allied Gold (ALD), which is close to its first gold pour at the Simberi project in Papua New Guinea, traded up to A85 cents, before easing to close at A80 cents, up A12 cents (17.6 per cent) over the week, and Adamus (ADU) rose to A71 cents before closing at A70 cents, up A10 cents (16.6 per cent) for the week.

Minews. Was that trend repeated across the entire gold sector?

Oz. No. Some gold stocks actually fell, and others soared on a whiff of discovery. It was a very curious market, perhaps showing the first signs of speculative cash being rotated out of some other sectors and into gold with spectacular moves by rarely mentioned stocks such as Republic Gold (RAU), and Greater Bendigo Gold (GBM).

On the downside, we saw Perseus (PRU) run out of puff after a couple of solid weeks. It lost A1 cent over the week to close at A$1.43, but all of the loss came on Friday when the stock fell A4.5 cents (3.1 per cent). During the August sell-off Perseus traded down to A$1. Troy (TRY) was another stock to respond modestly to the higher gold price, adding A1 cent to A$3.14.

While those better-known “names” were marking time it was bonanza time for the lucky few who got aboard Republic, an explorer with its foot on promising gold, copper and tungsten prospects in North Queensland and New South Wales. A few days ago it reported the occurrence of visible gold from drilling its the Northcote gold tenement, and the Burrago copper/gold, news that pushed the stock up to a 12-month high of A12.5 cents on Thursday, only to see sellers take their profits on Friday, marking Republic down to A9.6 cents, which still represented a gain of A4 cents (71.4 per cent) for the week.

Greater Bendigo Gold, an even smaller explorer with high hopes, staged an even better rally after reporting fabulous assays from its Maxwells project in Victoria. Best grab sample, which is not the most scientific way of testing a prospect, returned 1118 grams a tonne gold (35.9 ounces to the tonne) with the sample almost certainly containing one of those famous Victoria nuggets which lured the oldtimers to Victoria 150 years ago. News of the assays drove Greater Bendigo to a 12-month high of A38 cents on Wednesday, before the stock was trimmed back to close at A24 cents, a gain of A11.5 cents (95.8 per cent) for the week.

Minews. Nice for someone. Obviously gold is on the way back. Now for that other hot sector, iron ore, please.

Oz. Mixed, with some terrific rises, and some curious falls. On the downside, we saw Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) finally run out of puff, dropping back below the A$50 mark, perhaps noting your warning last week about “remember Poseidon”. Over the week, FMG eased A$3.10 (5.9 per cent) to A$49. Other prominent iron ore stocks to retreat included Gindalbie (GBG) which lost A6 cents (9.5 per cent) to A$1.52, Grange Resources (GRR) which slipped A10 cents (3.7 per cent) to A$2.60, and Murchison Metals (MMX) which eased A7 cents (1.3 per cent) to A$5.25. Murchison’s takeover target, MidWest Corporation (MIS) rose A17 cents (3.5 per cent) to A$5.08.#

Much better moves came from smaller, and less well known stocks, much the same as the gold sector. Cullen Resources (CUL), which is probably getting its first mention on Minesite, reported excellent drill results from its Catho Well project in Western Australia, adding A5.1 cents (57.3 per cent) to A14 cents. While not prominent, Cullen has an impressive corporate pedigree and has Chris Ringrose as its chief executive. For many years Ringrose was chief geologist under John Jones at Troy.

Another iron stock with no previous profile to move higher during the week was Intermet (ITT) which reported a thick and rich iron ore (magnetite) discovery in Queensland, and immediately doubled in price from A18 cents to A37 cents on Thursday before running out of puff and closing the week at A27.5 cents, up A9 cents (48.7 per cent)..

Minews. What about other sectors, such as the base metal stocks, and any special situations.

Oz. The only special was Consolidated Minerals (CSM) which officially passed the first anniversary of the proposed Pallinghurst takeover bid by rising A10 cents (2 per cent) to A$4.89, still comfortably ahead of the competing takeover bids priced at A$4.50. The ConsMin battle remains a lawyers picnic.

Nothing special to report from the base metal sector. Zinc stocks were hit by the mid-week fall in the price of their metal, but not too badly. Zinifex (ZFX) dropped A90 cents (4.8 per cent) to A17.69. Perilya (PEM) lost A31 cents (7.3 per cent) to A$3.94, while CBH (CBH) added A3.5 cents (6.6 per cent) to A56 cents.

Nickel stocks were generally easier. Jubilee (JBM) fell A81 cents (4.6 per cent) to A$16.59, and Western Areas (WSA) slipped by A14 cents (2.7 per cent) to A$5.02. It was a similar story among the uranium stocks. Toro (TOE) lost A1.5 cents (1.9 per cent) to A75.5 cents, while Uranex (UNX) was up A2 cents (1.9 per cent) to A$1.06. The biggest winner among the uranium stocks was Extract (EXT) which report encouraging news from a scoping study at its Ida Dome prospect in Namibia, and added A17 cents (22.2 per cent) to A93.5 cents.

Minews. Thanks Oz.

Oz. Sorry you lost in Paris. Its hard when you play against sixteen men.
 
October 28, 2007

That Was The Week That Was … In Australia
By Our Man In Oz

Minews. Good morning Australia, it looks like a big week for gold on your market.
Oz. And about time. The gold sector has been under the thumb of base metals, iron ore, and uranium for so long that it started to look like the metal had not been invited to the party. Last week however, even with the Aussie dollar hitting a fresh 28 year high against the U.S. dollar, the gold stocks started to shine. Some iron ore stocks did well, but the overall tone for the non-gold sector was mixed, at best.

Minews. Let’s start with the good news first, and then we can taper off with the rest.

Oz. There were widespread rises across the gold sector with many stocks hitting 12-month share price highs, and a handful declining. Newcrest (NCM) continued to lead the way and is looking more than ever like a stock in “takeover play”. It added another A$1.32 (4.4 per cent) to close the week at A$31.25, down a fraction on the 12-month high of A$31.40 set early on Friday. To put Newcrest into perspective it has now risen by A$8.37 (36.6 per cent) since mid-September when it announced the closing out of its hedge book to give itself full exposure to the gold price.

Minews. Presumably we can expect even better next week as the gold price continued rising after your market closed.

Oz. Perhaps. But Friday’s closing London gold price of US$779.15 an ounce has to be set against the Aussie dollar which is also in near-record territory. It closed on Friday at US91.19 cents, and is causing a lot of pain for Australian exporters. What’s interesting with the dollar/gold equation is that in our dollar terms gold at the Friday price was A$854.42/oz. In early September, when the U.S. dollar gold price was US$701/oz, and the Aussie dollar was at US82.33 cents the gold price converted to A$851.45, so the gold price rise for producers down this way has been all of A$2.97/oz.

Minews. A sobering calculation, but also perhaps an indication that investors believe gold has just started its upward run.

Oz. That would seem to be the case when you look at some of the prices. Among the stocks to reach new share prices peaks were Allied Gold (ALD) which got as high as A94 cents on Friday as it moves closer to the first gold pour at its Simberi Island project. At the close, Allied ran out of puff, ending the week at A86 cents, up A6 cents (7.5 per cent). Two months ago the stock was trading at A40 cents.

Dominion Mining (DOM) continued its spectacular revival as production and exploration news gets better at its flagship Challenger mine in South Australia. It closed on Friday at a 12-month high of A$6.20, up A$1.21 (24.2 per cent), including A28 cents (4.7 per cent) on Friday alone. Andean Gold (AND) continued its strong run since shaking Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) off its share register, rising A20 cents (13.9 per cent) to A$1.64, a down marginally on its 12-month high of A$1.69 reached earlier in the day. Lihir (LGL) was another of the pure gold plays to reach a new high of A$4.36 during Friday trade. It closed at A$4.34, up A9 cents (2.1 per cent).

Minews. Perhaps a quick call of the “gold card” might help, rattling off as many as you can.

Oz. OK. Carrick (CRK), continues to have a terrific time with spectacular drilling hits pushing it up to a high of A$1.98, before closing at A$1.90, a gain of A13 cents (7.3 per cent). Adamus (ADU) added A9.5 cents (13.6 per cent) to A79.5 cents. Centamin Egypt (CNT) rose A5 cents (3.6 per cent) at A$1.45, and Troy (TRY) gained A11 cents (3.5 per cent) at A$3.25.

On the downside, we saw St Barbara (SBM) frighten the horses with a big capital raising, shedding A5 cents (6.8 per cent) to A68 cents. Perseus (PRU) continued to slide, losing another A17 cents (11.9 per cent) to A$1.26. In the neutral camp, both Monarch (MON) and Alkane (ALK) were steady at A27.5 cents and A34 cents respectively.

Minews. Time for a look at the rest of the marker.

Oz. Nickel stocks were all over the shop. Jubilee (JBM) was up A51 cents (3 per cent) at A$17.10, and Minara (MRE) gained A35 cents (6.1 per cent) to A$6.05. But Sally Malay (SMY) eased a fractional A8cents (1.6 per cent) to A$4.90 and Albidon (ALB) lost A17 cents (5.5 per cent) to A$2.93. If there was tone to the nickel sector it was positive, just.

Iron ore stocks behaved in a similar way, mostly up, just. Fortescue Metals (FMG) gained a modest A30 cents to A$49.30. Atlas (AGO was up A5 cents (2 per cent) to A$2.55 and Ferraus (FRS) added A7 cents (5.7 per cent) to A$1.30. On the way down was Cape Lambert (CFE) which eased A7 cents (14 per cent) to A43 cents, while Grange (GRR) was steady at A$2.60.

Uranium stocks were also mixed. Paladin (PDN) added A29 cents (3.8 per cent) to A$7.84, but Wildhorse (WHE) eased A25 cents (10 per cent) to A$2.23. Uranex (UNX) slipped A2 cents to A$1.04, and Toro (TOE) lost A3 cents to A75 cents.

Minews. A final word, please, on any special situations.

Oz. Well, nothing could be more special than the Consolidated Minerals (CSM) situation after the mid-week report of a mystery holder (or holders) of 17.7 per cent of the takeover target. Everyone involved issued denials that they held the disputed block of shares, while on the market ConsMin slipped a fractional A3 cents lower at A$4.86.

The other special was the cancelled merger of two iron ore players, Gindalbie (GBG) and Sundance (SDL). Investors in Gindalbie welcomed the decision, lifting the stock by A18 cents (11.8 per cent) to A$1.70, but trashed Sundance (SDL) which fell A23 cent (31.5 per cent) over the week to close at A50 cents, with A11.5 cents of that fall coming on Friday.

Minews. Thanks Oz. Poor old George Jones will have to think again. Maybe one job is enough. Depends which one.
 
November 04, 2007

That Was The Week That Was … In Australia
By Our Man In Oz
www.minesite.com/aus.html

Minews. Good morning Australia, how did your market manage last week’s shake-out?

Oz. Better than might have been expected. It seems that investors in this part of the world are determined to disprove the adage about America sneezing and everyone else catching a cold. That might turn out to be a foolish belief because there are pressures building in the international trade arena which could soon catch up with our run-away resources sector.

Minews. That sounds a bit worrying. Please explain?

Oz. In case you hadn’t noticed Australian iron ore miners, led by BHP Billiton, are demanding yet another massive increase in the price of their products. There is even talk of the next iron ore settlement delivering another 50 per cent increase, and perhaps more if the Australians can claw back lost shipping costs. The Chinese, at the highest level of government, are peeved. Threats are being made about retaliatory action, and there’s even talk of a buyer’s strike orchestrated by the government.

Minews. An interesting concept, but unlikely to happen, surely?

Oz. It did three years ago when the manganese price hit US$4 a pound, and that very quickly killed an overheated market, which is what the Chinese would like to do with iron ore.

Minews. We’ll watch carefully. Time now for prices, please?

Oz. Hard to escape the impact on the nickel market of Xstrata’s US2.8 billion bid for Jubilee as the event of the week, but we’ll get to that later. Overall, last week’s most active areas remained the combination of iron ore and gold. Stocks in those sectors led the way but with coal making a strong comeback thanks to the high oil price. Giralia (GIR) was the star of the week after reporting that it might be on to a new iron ore province in central Western Australia. It rocketed up by A66 cents (61.1 per cent) to A$1.74 on the first sniffs from drilling which returned high grades of haematite, the preferred direct shipping ore.

Other iron ore moves were more restrained, with most running out of puff in the latter part of the week. Atlas Iron (AGO) started the week at A$2.62, which was up A7 cents on the closing price of the previous week, and then fell away to close at A$2.44, down A11 cents (4.3 per cent). Takeover target Golden West (GWR) did better, but also lost support towards on Thursday and Friday. At one stage on Wednesday Golden West was trading as high as A$2.74, up A46 cents (20 per cent) on the previous week, but then slipped away to close on Friday at A$2.45, still up A17 cents (7.5 per cent).

You could see this up/down trend across the iron ore sector as traders moved in, then out. Fortescue Metals (FMG) rose to A$52.40 on Tuesday, but closed the week at A$49.22, technically down A8 cents over the week, but with a percentage change not worth calculating. Ferraus (FRS), one of the new player in the back blocks of the Pilbara iron ore province slipped by A2 cents to A$1.28, but did trade up to A$1.37 early. Grange (GRR) rose to A$2.74, but closed at A$2.51, down A9 cents (3.5 per cent) at A$2.51.

Minews. Let’s switch to gold where the tone should have been even better with the price testing the US$800 mark.

Oz. It was better, but at the risk of replaying the same boring record what the gold price gave the Aussie dollar took away, until Friday. After we had closed for the week there were two interesting developments which should make for an interesting time next week. The gold price in London closed at US$796.50 an ounce, and the Aussie dollar actually fell quite sharply, down from US93.05 on Thursday to US91.68 on Friday.

Minews. That looks like your gold sector could be on the move next week.

Oz. Quite possibly. We saw more signs of the sector wakening last week, but nothing too exciting. Perseus (PRU) resumed its upward trend after a couple of bad week, adding A14 cents (11.1 per cent) to A$1.40. Allied (ALD) reported a cost overrun at its Simberi project, but still managed a gain of A4 cents (4.7 per cent) to A90 cents, and the sector leader, Newcrest (NCM) made waves by hinting that it was on the takeover trail, perhaps a case of eat, or be eaten. It added A$1.45 (4.6 per cent) to close at A$32.70, but was trading as high as A$33.91 on Thursday, a 12-month high for the stock.

Other gold stocks were less impressive, one way of saying that some actually fell in a week when the gold price rose strongly, a rather curious sight. Kingsgate (KCN) slipped by A7 cents (1.4 per cent) to A$5.06, but had made it up to A$5.51 on Tuesday. Apex (AXM) also lost modestly, down A3 cents (2.3 per cent) to A$1.27. Monarch (MON) was also off A3 cents (11.1 per cent) to A24 cents. Adamus (ADU) did better with a gain of A5 cents (6.3 per cent) to A84 cents, and support continued to build in Centamin (CNT) which, arguably, had the best week of all, closing at a 12-month high of A$1.50, which represented a gain of A5 cents (3.4 per cent).

Minews. Time’s short, base metals, uranium and specials to finish, please?

Oz. Nickel stocks were the base metal stars after Xstrata’s bid for Jubilee. Everyone benefited from that high-ball offer bid. Mincor (MCR) added A32 cents (7 per cent), Sally Malay (SMY) A99 cents (20 per cent), Western Areas (WSA) rose A83 cents (16.2 per cent), and Minara (MRE) was up A40 cents (6.6 per cent).

Uranium stocks caught the benefit of last week’s latest US$5 a pound rise in the uranium price to US$85 a pound. Uranex (UNX) starred with a rise of A28 cents (27 per cent) to A$1.32, Curnamona Energy (CUY) added A13 cents (12.2 per cent) to A$1.19, and Marathon (MTN) gained A46 cents (18 per cent) to A$3.01.

The only special remains Consolidated Minerals (CSM) which eased itself up by A3 cents to A$4.89, which is still comfortably above the competing A$4.50 bids for the stock, though it must be said that there are now so many corporate regulators crawling over ConsMin and its suitors that the only winners look like being the lawyers. Two words sum up ConsMin “godaful mess”.

Minews. Thanks Oz.
 
A must-read !



That Was The Week That Was … In Australia

By Our Man In Oz
November 11, 2007

Minews. Good morning Australia, BHP Billiton’s attempt to merge with Rio Tinto must have injected a bit of life into your market.

Oz. It did, but only up to a point. The major beneficiaries were Rio itself, and other suspected takeover targets, such as Oxiana (OXR), Zinifex (ZFX), Alumina (AWC) and Fortescue Metals Group (FMG). The rest of the market reacted modestly, and overall the metals and mining sector ended the week down a few points despite Friday’s excitement.

Minews. Let’s look first at stocks viewed as potential targets, please.

Oz. FMG was the curious one. Technically, it ended the week up A$1.33 at A$50.55, but that price move needs two explanations. First it is a rise of just 2.8 per cent. Second, it masks a roller-coaster week for the rapidly emerging iron ore producer. On Thursday, after a bruising encounter with dissident shareholders, FMG dropped to as low as A$44.51, its weakest since late September. The rebound was quite spectacular on Friday with the stock trading as high as A$52.10.

Minews. Presumably that’s because FMG is seen as a natural target for Chinese steel mills keen to secure a future source of supply should BHP and Rio merge?

Oz. Precisely. FMG has set itself up in a win-win situation. Either it enjoys the forecast rise in iron ore prices, or it is served up as a takeover plum with its chief executive, Andrew Forrest, able to deliver effective control thanks to his 36.7 per cent stake which was valued at A$5.17 billion at Friday’s close.

Among the other widely talked-about takeover targets, Oxiana rose to within a whisker of its 12-month high, hitting A$4.31 on Friday, before closing at A$4.28 for a gain on the day of A21 cents (5.2 per cent). That takeover chatter inspired rise, accounted for all of the stock’s move because Oxiana had slipped to as low as A$3.91 earlier in the week. Zinifex which is seen as a natural merger partner with Oxiana, performed a similar trick, falling early and then storming back as speculators jumped on anything with a whiff of takeover wafting off it. Zinifex rose by A64 cents (4.3 per cent) on Friday, but still ended the week down A71 cents (4.4 per cent).

Minews. Iron ore seems to be the big draw card in this proposed BHP/Rio deal, how did the other iron ore stocks behave?

Oz. Apart from FMG, the reaction was largely unexceptional. Most of the smaller players in the iron ore sector rose on Friday, but ended the week down. Atlas Iron (AGO), one of the more favoured players in the same region as Fortescue, added A17 cents (7.6 per cent) on Friday, but was down A2 cents overall. Grange (GRR) was up A16 cents (7 per cent) on Friday, but down A5 cents (2 per cent) at its closing price for the week of A$2.46. Other small irons did better, but not by much. Gindalbie (GBG) gained A4 cents (2.6 per cent) on Friday to end the week at A$1.57, but that only left the rise for the full week at A3 cents. Murchison (MMX) and Midwest (MIS) which are fighting their own takeover battle were hit hardest. Murchison managed a small gain of A13 cents (2.8 per cent) on Friday, but lost A29 cents (5.7 per cent) overall. Midwest lost on a daily and weekly basis. Down A3 cents on Friday, and down A34 cents (6.6 per cent) for the week.

Minews. Let’s switch to your gold stocks because they should have been in demand with the gold price sticking above US$800 an ounce.

Oz. The trend was certainly positive, but there’s nothing outrageous to report. The sector leader and long-rumoured takeover target, Newcrest (NCM), was the pick of the pack, rising A$3.15 (9.6 per cent) to A$35.85, with that closing price the highest for 12-months, and representing a gain of A$1.05 (3 per cent) on Friday alone, a sign that Newcrest caught a bit of the merger backwash.

Other gold stocks of interest included Monarch (MON) which announced a deal to buy the historic Hill 50 goldmine from South Africa’s Harmony Gold, a potentially good deal, but not one which enthralled investors Monarch added A1 cents (4 per cent) for the week, closing at A25 cents, but did trade as high as A27.5 cents on Wednesday. Alkane (ALK) added A2 cents (5.8 per cent) to A36.5 cents. Allied (ALD) was up A6 cents (6.6 per cent) at A96 cents, having briefly touched A$1. Centamin (CNT) continued to attract attention with a rise of A7 cents (4.7 per cent) at A$1.57, down a fraction on the A$1.62 reached on Thursday which was a 12-month high for the stock.

Minews. And elsewhere, please.

Oz. Mixed. Uranium stocks failed to respond to the rise in the uranium price back to US$90 a pound. Wildhorse (WHE) slipped by A10 cents (4 per cent) to A$2.31. Uranex (UNX) also lost A10 cents (7.5 per cent) to A$1.22, and Marathon (MTN) was another to lose exactly A10 cents (3.3 per cent) to A$2.91.

Coal stocks did slightly better in the energy-linked area. Riversdale (RIV) continues to run hard, adding another A$1.49 (17.7 per cent) to A$9.91, but was trading as high as A$10.18 at one stage on Friday, a 12-month high. A year ago you could have jumped aboard the stock at A$1.64. Other coal moves were more modest. Straits Resources (SRL) was up A20 cents (3 per cent) to A$6.69, and Aquila (AQA) added A94 cents (13 per cent) to A$8.19.

Minews. Perhaps a final quick word on the rest of the base metal sector.

Oz. Not a lot to report. Nickel stocks, after the excitement of Xstrata’s raid on Jubilee (JBM), were generally down. Sally Malay (SMY) slipped A17 cents (2.8 per cent) to A$5.72 despite a A12 cent hike on Friday. Mincor (MCR) eased A10 cents (2 per cent) to A$4.75, and Minara (MRE) was off a A20 cents (3 per cent) at A$6.25.

A few special situations before signing off. Consolidated Minerals (CSM) seems to be settling at last with the stock down A19 cents (3.8 per cent) to A$4.70, and very close to the twin bids on the table of A$4.50. What we need now is for someone to slap a $5 bid on the table and it should be the end of a bruising encounter. Vulcan Resources (VCN) is also worth a mention after a hammering thanks to a confirmed delay in its feasibility study into a mine in Finland, an event which Minesite predicted some weeks ago. The stock lost A11 cents (19.6 per cent) to A45 cents.

Minews. Thanks Oz. More of your fellow Aussies need to read Minesite to see what’s really happening. I believe you have a mining website out there, but it mostly seems to re-hash press releases. The difference is that we have a writer with a brain to interpret events, not just report them.
 
November 25, 2007

That Was The Week That Was … In Australia

By Our Man In Oz

Minews. Good morning Australia, it looks like you had a tough week at the office?

Oz. Yes, there was red ink everywhere, but most of the damage was done early and there were signs of a bottom forming on Friday. Next week, if stronger metal prices in your part of the world are a guide, should be better down this way.

Minews. Let’s have whatever good news you can find first to cheer us up, and then wade through the red ink.

Oz. There wasn’t much in the black among the better known stocks, but a couple of flyers which provided the day traders and other speculators with a spot of sport. The best of those was a one-time diamond hopeful called Flinders Diamonds (FDL). It had a week to remember, delivering a 750 per cent return over five trading days with a rise from A1 cent to A8.5 cents.

Minews. Some move, but it wasn’t diamonds, was it.

Oz. No. The inappropriately named Flinders Diamonds claims to have made a major iron ore discovery in Western Australia’s Pilbara region, and the market loves anything with a whiff of iron attached. Much more work is required to demonstrate that Flinders has a mine, or that it will be able to get its ore onto a rail line and then onto a ship. But let’s not be churlish, the fact is the speculators turned the stock into their favourite with the equivalent of the company’s total issued capital turning over three times on Thursday and Friday. To put that in numbers, 2.9 billion Flinders shares (yes, billion) were exchanged over just two days, not a bad effort for a company with 972 million issued. Thursday saw 1.9 billion traded when the stock rise to a high of A8.9 cents. Friday saw 973 million traded, taking the stock to a peak of A15 cents, at which point the week’s rise stood at 1400 per cent, before sliding back to the close of A8.5 cents.

Minews. Astonishing stuff.

Oz. But pretty much an isolated event, not that the day traders haven’t had fun trying to run a few other stocks. Kalgoorlie-Boulder Gold (KAL) which was mentioned last week after it reported an encouraging gold discovery near the town of Norseman was again heavily traded but without the share price moving far. It closed up A1 cent (4.7 per cent) at A22 cents, but trading volume over the week was just short of its issued capital of 110 million shares. In the previous week, when Kalgoorlie-Boulder was discovered by the traders, and the price rose from A13 cents to A21 cents there was a day when more close to 150 per cent of its issued capital was traded.

Minews. So much for the exceptions, now for the real market, please.

Oz. Sticking to the good news first approach the best results came from the coal and gold sectors. Iron ore, despite the odd flyer, was flat, as was uranium, nickel and the other base metals. Among the golds, Newcrest (NCM) added A76 cents (2.3 per cent) to A$33.01, and Lihir (LGL) crept A6 cents (1.5 per cent) higher to A$3.87. One of the better performers was the rarely-mentioned South Boulder (STB) which added A3 cents (20 per cent) to A18 cents, but did get as high as A20 cents on news of good assay results from its Duketon gold project. The rest of the gold sector was flat, or down. Troy (TRY) fell A29 cents (8.7 per cent) to A$3.05. Apex (AXM) slipped A5 cents (4.2 per cent) to A$1.15, while Adamus (ADU) and Alkane (ALK) lost A1 cent each.

Minews. Time to have a look at those base metal and iron ore stocks.

Oz. Before the list of price falls, one item of good news. Heron Resources (HRR), one of the more interesting nickel hopefuls, had a good week, rising by A12 cents (11 per cent) to A$1.20 on news that it is becoming more of an object of desire for two of the world’s biggest miners. Both BHP Billiton and CVRD are increasing the investments in Heron which has its foot on a vast resource of low-grade laterite nickel. After Heron, however, it was all down hill. Western Areas (WSA) lost A32 cents (5.4 per cent) to A$5.63. Minara (MRE) fell A20 cents (3.2 per cent) to A$6.09, and Poseidon (POS), which is really the re-named Niagara Mining, crashed back by A22 cents (16.7 per cent) to A$1.10.

Over in the iron ore sector it was more red ink. Fortescue Metals (FMG) was hit with a couple of stockbroker downgrades, including one from Macquarie Bank tipping a 12-month price target of A$35.57 when the stock was trading above A$55. Those comments, plus confirmation of more cost blow-outs at Fortescue’s project saw the stock ended the week at A$54.81, down A$3.69 (6.3 per cent). Two weeks ago, Fortescue traded as high as A$64.99. Other iron ore moves included: Gindalbie, down A17 cents (11.6 per cent) to A$1.29. Territory (TTY), down A11 cents (6.7 per cent) to A$1.53, and Atlas Iron (AGO), down a heavy A41 cents (17 per cent) to A$1.98.

Minews. Time left for other sectors and special situations.

Oz. Coal, as mentioned earlier, was one of the better sectors thanks to the high oil price. Macarthur (MCC) added A15 cents (2 per cent) to A$7.84, and Aquila added A89 cents (10.7 per cent) to close at A$9.19. Riversdale (RIV) and GVM (GVM) both lost ground, but only after big capital raising. Riversdale eased A73 cents (7.2 per cent) to A$9.42 and GVM slipped A7 cents (4.5 per cent) to A$1.49. Uranium stocks were generally weaker.

Among the specials just two worth mentioning. Consolidated Minerals (CSM) remains unfinished business, but the price has settled back to A$4.85, down A11 cents (2.2 per cent) over the week, and close to the Ukrainian offer price of A$4.70. Oxiana (OXR) and Equinox (EQN) were named as potential marriage partners after the no-show of an Oxiana/Zinifex link. None of the trio performed well last week. Oxiana was down A38 cents (9.6 per cent) to A$3.57. Equinox lost A78 cents (13.9 per cent) to A$4.82, and Zinifex slipped A93 cents (6 per cent) to A$14.46.

Minews. Thanks Oz. See you have a new Prime Minister. Half your luck!
 
December 02, 2007

That Was The Week That Was … In Australia
By Our Man In Oz

Minews. Good morning Australia, how did the market handle your change of government?

Oz. Surprisingly well. Before last weekend there was the usual nervousness, but after Australia swung to the left with the election of Kevin Rudd as its new Prime Minister there was general euphoria.

Minews. That’s an interesting measure of general sentiment, but how did it affect the mining sector?

Oz. Broadly the same, though the ASX metals and minerals index makes it look better than it really was. Officially the mining sector was up a cracking 6.5 per cent, including 2.5 per cent alone on Friday.

Minews. But, you’re about to tell me that most of that was the Rio Tinto effect.

Oz. Spot on. As well as the change of government down this way we had another ultra big ticket event rumbling away in the background, distorting the view of the overall mining market. Between them, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto dominate the mining industry and Rio’s A$5.94 (4.3 per cent) rise on Friday created an impression that the entire mining market lifted, which really wasn’t true.

Minews. Enough of the external distortions, take us through the sectors, please.

Oz. Starting with the best, it was coal which caught the imagination of investors. Most of the small coal stocks performed very well thanks to rising prices, and an expectation of more to come next year. Riversdale (RIV), which is on to something quite big in Mozambique, and has struck a very useful relationship with the Tata group in India, added A48 cents (5 per cent) to A$9.90.

Minews. Great article from you about that last week Now we are going to follow up from the Indian end. Have a feeling in my bones about this one.

Oz. GVM (GVM), which is also expanding operations in southern Africa, did even better with a rise of A30 cents (20 per cent) to close the week at A$1.79, which was actually down a fraction on the 12-month high of A$1.82 reached on Thursday. Other coal moves included: Macarthur (MCC), up A$1.14 (14.5 per cent) to A$8.98. Felix (FLX) up A49 cents (6.5 per cent) to A$8, and Centennial (CEY), up A42 cents (9.8 per cent) to A$4.70. It wasn’t all one-way traffic with Whitehaven (WHC) slipping A2 cents to A$2.72.

Minews. And what of that other energy mineral, uranium.

Oz. Not nearly as interesting. Paladin (PDN) initially disappointed after reporting a hefty loss for the September quarter, but regained support late in the week to end up A36 cents (5.6 per cent) at A$6.80, which is a good result, but needs to be put in the context of the A$10.80 price reached earlier in the year when the uranium stocks were on fire. Marathon (MTN), another boom time favourite, lost A15 cents (5.3 per cent) to A$2.68. It has now lost exactly A$4 (59.8 per cent) since peaking at A$6.68. Uranex (UNX) slipped A5 cent (4.7 per cent) to A$1.02, while Toro also lost A5 cents (10 per cent) to A45 cents.

Minews. Presumably the market is waiting to see the shape of uranium policy from your new government.

Oz. That’s a reasonable assumption, though it should be positive. The resources minister is a former trade union boss, Martin Ferguson who, somewhat surprisingly, is very supportive of more uranium mining.

Minews. You are heading into interesting times. Time now for a look at the iron ore sector. Did it remain a favourite of the market?

Oz. Not really. The iron ore stocks have been very strong for much of the year in anticipation of a big price rise from the current round of price talks with Asian steel mills. Now that we’re close to a deal investors seem to be getting a little nervous. Fortescue Metals (FMG) was one of the better performers, regaining some recently lost ground with a rise of A$1.79 (3.3 per cent) to A$56.60.

Minews. Funny you should mention Fortescue. Why is it always the big ones that keep ‘forgetting’ to pay their bills? Too much arrogance or too much bureaucracy so nobody knows who is responsible for what. Not a good sign.

Oz. Gindalbie (GBG) was also up modestly at A$1.33, a gain of A4 cents (3 per cent), and Atlas (AGO) added A7 cents (3.5 per cent) at A$2.05, though that closing price compares with a mid-week peak of A$2.20. On the downside among the iron stocks, the takeover battle between Midwest (MIS) and Murchison (MMX) took its toll of both stocks. Midwest slipped A7c lower (1.7 per cent) to A$4.08, and Murchison eased A1 cent to A$4.01. Territory Iron (TTY) lost A6c (3.9 per cent) to A$1.47 and Grange (GRR) lost A1c at A$2.49.

Minews. Time to look at the gold stocks, and then base metals, please.

Oz. Generally weaker, but with a few pleasant surprises. Independence Group (IGO) was somewhat of a star thanks to an expectation that its partner in the Tropicana gold discovery, AngloGold Ashanti, will soon release a big resource and reserve upgrade. Independence has a 30 per cent stake in what is shaping as Australia’s best gold discovery in 20 years. It rose A33 cents (4.2 per cent) during a week when the gold price fell quite sharply.

Minews. We might take a closer look at Independence. How did other gold stocks perform.

Oz. Most moves were modest. Allied Gold (ALD) was up A2 cents (2.6 per cent) to A77 cents. Troy (TRY) added A15 cents (4.9 per cent) to A$3.20 and Wedgetail, which is selling surplus assets as part of a major overhaul, added A1.5 cents (13 per cent) at A13 cents. On the flipside, Ramelius (RMR) was hammered after a disappointing resource statement from its Wattle Dam project, plunging A46 cents (27 per cent) to A$1.22. Kalgoorlie-Boulder lost A3 cents (13.6 per cent) to A19 cents, and Monarch (MON) slipped A1 cent (3.8 per cent) to A25 cents.

Minews. Base metals, now and then finish with any special situations.

Oz. Nickel stocks firmed, copper and zinc were mixed. Among the nickels, Western Areas (WSA) rose A22 cents (3.9 per cent) to A$5.85. Poseidon (POS) was up A8 cents (7.3 per cent) to A$1.18, and Minara (MRE) added A16 cents (2.6 per cent) to A$6.25. Among the copper stocks, Oxiana (OXR) was best with a rise of A36 cents (10 per cent) to A$3.93. It was downhill for the zinc sector leader. Zinifex (ZFX), which dropped to a 12-month low of A$13.74 on Friday, before bouncing back to close at A$14.40, down A6c cents for the week. CBH (CBH) added A3 cents (5.3 per cent) to A59.5 cents, and Perilya (PEM) was up A7 cents (2.4 per cent) at A$2.96.

There’s little to report on specials. That year-old favourite, Consolidated Minerals (CSM) continues to drag along with the market remaining comfortably above takeover bid prices. ConsMin closed the week at A4.93, up A8 cents (1.6 per cent).

Minews. Thanks Oz.
 
December 09, 2007

That Was The Week That Was … In Australia
By Our Man In Oz

Minews. Good morning Australia, how was your week?

Oz. Showing signs of flattening out ahead of the Christmas break, but kept alive by plenty of corporate activity. After trading closed on Friday we saw a state-owned Chinese steel company launch a counter-bid for one of our small iron ore producers, and we also rejoiced when the Consolidated Minerals (CSM) battle drew to a close.

Minews. ConsMin has certainly been tortuous. Why not start this week with a look at the corporate side of things since that seems to be the most interesting aspect of the market.

Oz. You’re probably up to speed with ConsMin, but for the record the Ukrainian-owned Palmary group won the day with an offer of A$5/share. That was enough to encourage the main rival bidder, the Brian Gilbertson-led Pallinghurst, to accept the cash and walk away promising more bids to come, but perhaps deals that take less than a year to complete. Brian’s not a young man anymore!

Of greater interest than Gilbo’s defeat was the late offer of A$5.60 a share from Sino Steel for Midwest Corporation (MIS) You couldn’t say that it took the market totally by surprise after a few well sourced leaks and a stock exchange inquiry, but the suggested bid price was well above a rival offer from another small iron ore miner, Murchison Metals (MMX). Next week could see this become a battle worth watching because Sino’s offer is A$1.07 (24.5 per cent) above Midwest’s closing price on Friday of A$4.35.

Minews. The Chinese are becoming quite a force in your mining market, aren’t they?

Oz. They certainly are. The big one, which will probably never happen, is speculation of Chinese government intervention in BHP Billiton’s proposal to merge with Rio Tinto. The common thread linking that deal, and the much smaller raid on Midwest, is China protecting its supplies of iron ore.

Another deal which we should hear a lot more about next week was confirmation from First Quantum that it had snapped up a 17.3 per cent stake in fellow Zambian copper miner, Equinox. On the market, Equinox (EQN) rose A$1.08 (21.5 per cent) to A$6.09. It doesn’t require too much imagination to see other bidders start to chase Equinox which is one of the best emerging copper and uranium plays in the world.

Before switching to look at the sectors it’s worth putting Kingsgate (KCN) in the corporate category after it was hit by negative publicity in Thailand. Investors have been holding out for news that Kingsgate would get government approval to expand its Sepon goldmine. There’s no definite news yet but Thai media reported that the government might not give Kingsgate what it needs. Before management asked for a trading suspension Kingsgate fell by A95 cents (19.4 per cent) to A$3.95.

Minews. Time now to go through the sectors, starting with iron ore, please?

Oz. Apart from the Midwest situation the rest of the sector was mixed, though most moves were small. Fortescue Metals (FMG) probably had its quietest week for a year, rising a truly modest A15 cents to A$56.75. Gindalbie (GBG) was up A2 cents to A$1.35, and Cape Lambert (CFE) rose A3 cents to A43 cents. Golden West (GWR), which is fighting off a takeover bid, fell A9 cents to A$2.03.

Minews. And the coal sector, was that hot again?

Oz. Certainly hotter than iron ore. Riversdale (RIV) just keeps rocketing away, up another A$1.10 (11 per cent) to A$11 as interest builds in its Mozambique coal assets and its joint venture with India’s Tata group. Macarthur (MCC) was another favourite, rising A32 cents (3.6 per cent) to A$9.52. Aquila (AQA) reacted positively to receipt of a large cheque from Brazil’s renamed Vale (the old CVRD) for a bigger share of a coal mine in Queensland, adding A67 cents (7.3 per cent) to A$9.87, and Felix (FLX) rose A42 cents (5.3 per cent) to A$8.42.

Minews. Gold, nickel and anything else that looks interesting, please?

Oz. Not much from the golds, despite a modest rise in the U.S. dollar price during our trading week. The Kingsgate situation might have rattled a few traders. Centamin (CNT) slipped A7 cents (4.9 per cent) to A$1.36. Lihir (LGL) lost A16 cents (4 per cent) to A$1.36. St Barbara (SBM) raised more cash, and eased A2 cents to A$76 cents. Apex (AXM) reported good drilling results, but still fell A10 cents (8 per cent) to A$1.15, and even Independence (IGO), which received excellent publicity thanks to its stake in the Tropicana gold discovery, lost A69 cents (8.4 per cent) to A$7.48.

Nickel stocks were up marginally, and there’s actually a corporate situation evolving there which we perhaps could have look at earlier. Jubilee (JBM) lost A12 cents during the week closing at A$22.90, or fractionally below Xstrata’s takeover offer price of A$23. What makes that particularly interesting is that Xstrata is struggling to close the deal despite Jubilee’s founder, and major shareholder, Kerry Harmanis accepting for his 20 per cent stake. The bid was been extended but the fact that Xstrata has only been able to attract acceptances of 36.12 per cent, a number which presumably includes Harmanis’s stake, points to the potential for interesting developments.

Elsewhere among the nickels, Western Areas (WSA) rose a modest A9 cents to A$5.94. Sally Malay (SMY) was up A25 cents (4.8 per cent) to A$5.38, and Minara (MRE) benefited from finalising a process plant upgrade project, rising A27 cents (4.3 per cent) to A$6.52, good enough for its long-serving chief executive to take a couple of weeks off to cruise the Nile with his family. On the downside, Mincor lost A7 cents to A$4.40.

Minews. Thanks Oz. Have a good time in Dubai and I will speak to you next week.
 
January 13, 2008

That Was The Week That Was … In Australia
By Our Man In Oz
www.minesite.com

Minews. Good morning Australia, apart from gold it looks like a bad week all-round.

Oz. That pretty much sums it up, though even among Australian gold stocks there was evidence of selling, or perhaps rotation into higher quality miners and explorers. Overall, the metals sector was down a rather painful 4.8 per cent, though a lot of that can be attributed to the solid falls posted by the big two, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto. If it’s any compensation the overall Australian market, as measured by the all ordinaries index was off by a fraction more than metals at 5.2 per cent.

Minews. Cold comfort. Let’s kick off with the good news first, a trip through the gold stocks, please?

Oz. Most golds were up, but no-one stood out despite last week’s 4.2 per cent rise in the price of the metal as measured on the London Bullion Market where it closed at US$891 an ounce. Down our way, with the exchange rate at US89.53 cents, the gold price was A$995 an ounce, a tantalising A$5 away from a magic A$1000 an ounce closing price.

That solid rise in the gold price, and a widespread expectation that there is more to come, was partly reflected in the share market where we saw some solid rises, but also a few unimpressive performances, and even a few falls. Sector leader, Newcrest (NCM) was up A98 cents (2.6 per cent) to A$37.99, with a poor show on Friday when it actually slipped back by A26 cents. The other big gold producers delivered equally unimpressive week-on-week performances. Lihir (LGL) was up a lowly A3 cents to A$3.94, SinoGold (SGX) was steady at A$7.70, and Equigold (EQI) lost A20 cents (4.8 per cent) to A$3.92.

Minews. Not what you would have expected in such a strong gold market.

Oz. No. But probably an accurate reflection of the fear and loathing in the overall market where there is a definite drift to quality stocks, and cash because unlike the rest of the world which is looking to lower interest rates Australia is still likely to raise rates as part of an attack on inflation caused, ironically, by the mining boom.

Minews. Those divergent views on interest rates certainly serve to illustrate how you’re seeing the future in a different light to Europe and the U.S.

Oz. Absolutely. And we can explore that a bit further next week in the snapshot of commodity price forecasts that you mentioned in a separate story last week.

Minews. More prices from the gold sector please, and then a run down of the rest of the market.

Oz. A call of the gold card looks like this. Centamin (CNT) continues to power along as its Sukari project looks better by the month. It closed the week at A$1.57, up A12 cents (8.3 per cent), but did go as far as A$1.63 on Friday, a 12-month high and probably an all-time high for a company which has spent more than a decade trying to get into production. Allied Gold (ALD) was another mid-tier favourite as it makes brisk progress on its Simberi project in Papua New Guinea. It added A9 cents (10.8 per cent) to A92 cents. Other rises worth noting included: Tanami (TAM), up A1.5 cents (11.5 per cent) to A14.5 cents, and definitely worth a more detailed report some time next week. Norton Goldfields (NGF), the new owner of the Paddington processing plant near Kalgoorlie, added A12 cents (24 per cent) to A62 cents with most of that coming from a belated recognition that the company owns one of the best gold mills in the world. Resolute (RSG) was another gold producer winning late respect for its revival plans. It rose A23 cents (12.3 per cent) to A$2.10.

After those admirable rises came a long tail of more modest results. Apex (AXM) managed a gain of A3 cents (2.2 per cent) to A$1.38. Kingsgate (KCN) added A5 cents (1 per cent) to A$4.90, and Dragon (DRA) gained A1.5 cents (11 per cent) to A15 cents. Then we have the surprise packet of gold stocks which actually fell in a rising gold market. Crescent (CRE) slipped by A2 cents (4.6 per cent) to A41.5 cents. View (VRE) dropped A2.5 cents (10.4 per cent) to A21.5 cents. Ramelius (RMS) eased by A4 cents (2.9 per cent) to A$1.30, and Carrick (CRK) fell by A14 cents (7.4 per cent) to A$1.76.

Minews. A very mixed bag when so much more might reasonably have been expected. Time for the other sectors, and any special situations, please?

Oz. This is where it gets very hard to find anything in black ink with widespread falls in all sectors. Iron ore stocks probably held up the best. Fortescue (FMG) slipped by just A9 cents (1.3 per cent) A$6.59. Grange (GRR) also fell by A9 cents (3.3 per cent) to A$2.59, while Gindalbie (GBG) was down a more substantial A21 cents (18.6 per cent) to A92 cents and its close associate, Sundance Resources (SDL) dropped an even more painful A10 cents (23.5 per cent) to A32.5 cents.

Nickel stocks were also down. Minara (MRE) lost A38 cents (6 per cent) to A$5.87. Western Areas (WSA) dropped by A66 cents (11.7 per cent) to A$5, and Sally Malay (SMY) fell A55 cents (9.7 per cent) to A$5.10.

Uranium stocks weakened across the board. Paladin (PDN) dropped A$1.01 (14.4 per cent) to A$6.01, Wildhorse (WHE) lost A7 cents (5.7 per cent), and Uranex (UNX) fell A6.5 cents (7.9 per cent) to A75.5 cents. The other energy mineral, coal, was also in decline. Straits Resources (SRL) lost A26 cents (3.9 per cent) to A$6.31. Aquila (AQA) slipped A38 cents (4.1 per cent) to A$8.87, but Riversdale held its ground, closing steady at A$9.40.

Minews. Any specials?

Oz. The only situation worth watching is Jubilee (JBM) which continues to trade above the recommended A$22 takeover price offered by Xstrata. On Friday, Jubilee closed at A$22.74, or 3.4 per cent above the bid price which indicates that some investors reckon a sweetener is on the way.

Minews. Thanks Oz. Looking forward to actually seeing you next week as the royal tour passes through London.
 
Sell The Beach House! Shockwaves From The Opes Prime Margin Call Crisis Crash Over Australian Miners

By Our Man in Oz | April 04, 2008
www.minesite.com/aus.html

In every boom someone in business comes up with a really stupid idea. A decade ago it was the boys at Bre-X who dreamt up the Busang gold fraud. In the US a few years ago it was the banks who thought it smart to lend money to poor people who couldn’t pay it back, thereby leading directly to the sub-prime crisis. But neither of those two - nor anything that went before - matches what has happened in Australia over the past week where 677 stock exchange listed companies, 25 per cent of the total on the ASX, suddenly found themselves embroiled in an almost unimaginable margin call crisis. Many of those stuck in this newly revealed tangled web of intrigue - and possible criminal activity - are miners. Some are well known to regular Minesite readers, and while the companies themselves are innocent, it turns out that there are some very dopey shareholders on their share registers who have now discovered to their personal loss that over the last 48 hours they’ve had their investments sold out from under them.
Well-known names such as Gindalbie Metals, Bannerman Resources, Image Resources, Fairstar Resources, Golden West Resources, Thundelarra Exploration, Ord River Resources, and Cazaly Resources are among the companies affected. Big blocks of their shares have been snaffled by banks which originally only regarded them as collateral for margin loans, but which have now taken possession of the shares themselves. And they are selling. Lawyers are having a picnic as the crisis comes to a head. The legal investigation into the failure of the stockbroker at the heart of the disaster might last for years. As will action against it. Some once-rich individual investors have been cleaned out, and even members of the royal family of Malaysia are licking their wounds.

Before the detail of what happened, and why a string of companies, including Golden West, Fairstar, and Image remain suspended, there is a single word which sums it all up: greed. Boiled down, the story goes like this: a stockbroking firm called Opes Prime conceived a plan to make margin loans to about 1200 fat cat clients against holdings in generally small companies which are also often illiquid and subject to sharp share price movements. It was a cheap and easy scheme. But, what the investors appear to have not known, or not been told, or did not discover in the fine print, was a clause which allowed all the shares involved to be “pooled” under what is called the Australian Master Securities Lending Agreement. So far, so good.

But, when the market corrected - okay let’s be honest and call it a crash - in January and February, someone at Opes Prime decided to help out a few mates. It’s what Aussies do in times of need. The problem was the help appears to have consisted of telling Merrill Lynch and the ANZ Banking Group a few “porkie pies” which made it appear that certain individuals behind certain lines of credit owned more shares than they really did. Justice Ray Finkelstein in the Victoria Supreme Court is unravelling exactly who said what to whom, and when, but one of the borrowers, Sydney lawyer Chris Murphy, has already admitted that he had loans somewhere in the vicinity of A$100 million. Murphy was one of the people Opes Prime tried to protect.

As with all really stupid ideas it has came unstuck. Spectacularly. In the week before Easter Opes Prime discovered that it had a problem. Management trotted off to the ANZ and asked for a bit of extra cash to cover a hole in its margin lending business. The bank was deeply suspicious but chipped in A$95 million to get through Easter. Immediately after Easter the bank called in the accounting firm, Deloittes to dig a little deeper. And what did the bean counters find? An even deeper hole, of course. They also found that the pooling arrangement meant that stock exchange rules regarding declarations of large shareholdings had been breached, in several dozen cases. Whistles were blown loudly. The banks took possession of the Opes Prime margin books and started selling, hard.

Merrill Lynch moved fastest. Within a day it had sold shares worth A$500 million. The ANZ was slower and caught in a couple of legal challenges, most of which it has won. It is still selling. Some investors will get a portion of their funds back, but it’s likely to be between A33 cents and A50 cents in the dollar. In one case known to Minesite’s Man in Oz a 70 year old investor placed A$14 million worth of scrip with Opes Prime in order to secure a loan of A$4 million. Much of his portfolio consisted of small mining stocks which are not regarded as highly liquid and not the sort of security against which a normal margin loan is made. He’ll probably lose everything.

Of the companies involved a furious scramble is underway to help the receivers and liquidators appointed by the banks find new owners for big blocks of their paper. At Gindalbie a search is underway to find an owner for 16 million shares once held in the name of Melawar Steel Ventures, an investment vehicle of the king of Malaysia and his family. That situation is still in the melting pot and Gindalbie says it is working with the banks and Melawar to achieve a satisfactory outcome. At Golden West, which is busy beating off a take over bid from Fairstar, an even more interesting situation has emerged. Late on Friday 4th April, Australian time, Golden West said 11 million of its shares, or 10 per cent of its capital, had been acquired by Portman, the local iron ore mining arm of the big U.S. miner, Cleveland Cliffs. For Fairstar, that’s a disaster which will almost certainly torpedo its all-share takeover offer.

By next week, when the banks have finished their selling and short-term legal injunctions run out of time, the Opes Prime disaster will move into the forensic scrutiny phase. The directors of the broking house have surrendered their passports. Corporate cops and ASX investigators are now picking through the bones of the failure. An astonishing 677 Australian companies will be making adjustments to their share registers, and 1200 really stupid investors will be licking their wounds, and explaining to their families why the beach house has to be sold.
 
Money Laundering, Fraud, Hitmen, Maseratis, Dentists, Drug Trafficking, Wire-Tapping: The Opes Prime Scandal Works On So Many Levels

By Our Man in Oz | April 10, 2008 | www.minesite.com

Maserati sports cars as gifts... one-time underworld figures on the hunt for missing millions… and a curious “crime” website set up by a dentist who specialises in mouthguards for footballers. Welcome to “level one”, the glamour level, of the currently unravelling and increasingly bizarre world of Opes Prime, the stockbroking firm which recently failed and last week caused mayhem on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). “Level two”, which is not yet open for public scrutiny, promises to be even more interesting. It’s on this level that stock exchange regulators are pondering how Opes Prime got away with it, and, more to the point, exactly what the firm and its clients did get away with? Share price manipulation is one allegation. Money laundering is another.
But, before we even consider levels one or two in the Opes Prime saga, it’s highly likely that a third level will appear, and that could be far more significant than everything else. The Australian Government is deeply concerned about the way Opes Prime flouted the law and, more fundamentally, about how the ASX failed to manage the situation, and failed even to know that a disaster was taking place under its nose. Talk has already started about the need for more direct government intervention in regulating the stock market, and that extra regulation would include much tighter rules on short-selling and margin lending, and possibly removing some regulatory duties from the ASX.

First, however, an Opes Prime refresher for novice readers. Two weeks ago the stockbroking firm, which specialised in providing margin loans backed by small, and generally illiquid Australian mining and technology companies, collapsed. The immediate cause was a failure to force six rich clients to top up their accounts which had been scorched in the January market correction. There was also an apparent attempt to help those clients by shifting shares owned by other investors across to the favoured six. When this began to come to light it was also found that Opes Prime had been using a pooled share ownership system in which the broker’s banks held legal title to all shares in the pool. Most of those shares have now been sold and Opes Prime clients, who might have assumed they owned the shares they’d bought, look like they’ll get just A30 cents in the dollar.

Now for “level one” of the intrigue which has followed the collapse and the market mayhem generated as the banks sold down shares in the 677 listed companies that were swimming in the communal pool. It’s on this level that can be found a certain Mick Gatto, one-time boss of an underworld gang called the Carlton Crew, and a man acquitted in 2005, on grounds of self-defence, of shooting the Melbourne gangland hitman, Andrew “Benji” Veniamin. Yesterday, amid much fanfare, the 150 kilogram, and heavily tattooed, Gatto jetted into Singapore with two equally “heavy, heavies” for “talks” with the former bankers to Opes Prime. Gatto, who now runs a “mediation and dispute resolution business” wants aggrieved Opes Prime clients to register their interests on a purpose-created website called www.opescrimefund.com.au. Perhaps even more bizarre than the appearance of Gatto and his website is the fact that it was set up by Dominic Di Luca, a dentist who supplies mouthguards to the Carlton Football Club. As well as being a noticeboard for Opes Prime stories – it’s worth a visit - the site asks for the account number of Opes Prime clients and their estimated loss.

Level one of this saga is also where news has surfaced about one aspect of the way the brokerage did business: if you were a really, really, good client you got a Maserati as a gift. The client with the highest profile, Sydney lawyer Chris Murphy, has confirmed that he received a car, but added that he reverted to driving his Toyota Corolla after damaging a wheel on the Maserati on his first spin and finding out that the replacement would cost him A$6,000. Equally busy in Singapore, and chasing cars, is one of the official receivers of Opes Prime, Chris Campbell, an accountant with Deloittes. He is said to have located five more luxury cars in Singapore, including another Maserati, a Ferrari and a Lotus. The receivers are also looking for five more sports cars in Australia. Ownership of the cars could prove to be one of the most interesting aspects of an already interesting investigation.

Level two is where inquiries are focussed on whether trading in certain ASX stocks was manipulated. The allegation is that someone associated with Opes Prime did a bit of manipulating by operating through a company called Riqueza which is registered in the Caribbean tax haven of the British Virgin Islands, a getaway which markets itself as “one of nature’s little secrets”. Riqueza is alleged to have played a role in propping up share prices to assist Opes Prime clients. The Australian Financial Review newspaper reported on Thursday morning that among the transactions being closely analysed was one involving a five per cent stake in Challenger Financial Services, a firm which has suffered a 68 per cent drop in its share price over the past 12 months, and which was a favourite on the margin lending books of Opes Prime.

It is also on level two that we find allegations of leaks about takeover bids and the possible “infiltration” of the stock market by organised crime. Also on Thursday morning The Melbourne Age newspaper reported that the Australian Federal Police are investigating whether information relating to the proposed takeover of Golden West Resources by Fairstar Resources was leaked to Gatto and his partner in a crane hire business, Matt Tomas. It is alleged that the police have even tapped and taped telephone calls revealing how market sensitive information was leaked. The Age story, and a choice picture of Mr Gatto, can be found at business.theage.com.au. That story also alleges that another company caught in the Opes Prime collapse, Boss Energy, has a convicted drug trafficker among its top 20 shareholders.

Moving on from level two of Opes Prime, but quickly noting that it is shaping as a brilliant film script to rival the British comedy/crime classic Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels, we find the potential for government intervention – and that’s where it all becomes very messy. If there has been criminal activity in Opes Prime it falls into two legal jurisdictions, state and Federal. The Victoria police will be very interested in the cars. The Federal cops, and their good friends in the Australian Tax Office, will be looking at the tax and international money movement angles. Then we have another arm of government, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission taking a very close look at who was on duty at the ASX while some naughty boys were playing shenanigans. On this score the ASX looks very exposed because it’s supposed to know what’s happening in its market and it didn’t, and it’s supposed to be both a regulator and a listed company in its own right working for profit – a potentially hopeless conflict of interest.

There are undoubtedly a lot more juicy bits to be exposed as Opes Prime is ripped apart, and we’ll be watching closely here on Minesite. We’re also looking forward to the movie in which Mick Gatto might even get a staring role, playing himself – while Minesite’s Man in Oz, being a well-known coward, will be far, far away.
 
Equinox Will Soon Have The Largest Producing Copper Mine in Africa, Not To Mention A $1.5bn Uranium Stockpile

By Our Man in Oz / www.minesite.com / April 17, 2008

Try as he might Minesite’s Man in Oz cannot see Craig Williams, chief executive of Equinox Minerals, sitting for long on top of the world’s most valuable waste dump. That’s why the dual-listed Australian and Canadian company, with its flagship asset in Zambia, will press the “go” button later this year on the uranium phase of its Lumwana project. All that’s needed is a clear set of laws from the Zambian government and Equinox will not only be ranked as one of the world’s biggest copper producers, but also as one of the biggest uranium producers, a combination which should be of immense appeal to investors, and predators alike. Little wonder that since the start of 2007 the Equinox share price has been marching north, starting at A$2, rushing up to A$7, and now nestling at around A$5. That’s roughly the same price paid by the first raider on the Equinox share register, First Quantum, late last year.
It’s First Quantum’s 17.27 per cent stake in Equinox, as much as the uranium phase of Lumwana, which ought to have everyone interested in mining dusting off their Equinox file, as the company gets down to the business end of a 10 year odyssey in Africa. From being a company regarded as something of a curiosity when it moved early to secure an asset position before the resources boom took hold, Equinox today is in a near-priceless position, poised to play a starring role in the minerals world. Or as a perfect addition to the base metals and uranium division of a major miner. Xstrata or Anglo American rank among the natural marriage partners for Equinox, if First Quantum lacks the firepower to complete what it seems to have started last year.

Williams disagrees, however. He’s determined to see Equinox achieve its potential as a free-standing and independent minerals producer with an outstanding growth profile. “We can see a range of growth opportunities,” he says after Minesite tracked him down to his office in Perth. “First there is a de-bottlenecking project which will lift us from 20 million tonnes [of ore] a year to 24 million tonnes,” he says. “Then there is the potential for building our own [copper] smelter, and then there is the uranium.” If awarding prizes for confidence Minesite’s Man in Oz would give Williams a gold. But he’s probably deserved that since the 1990s when he and his late partner in exploration, Bruce Nisbet, embarked on the Lumwana project, a mission which followed their joint discovery of the Ernest Henry copper-gold project in Queensland, and their joint 1994 award for prospectors of the year in Australia.

Lumwana is a step up from Ernest Henry. It is a project with an “initial” 37 year mine life, and an orebody which contains discrete uranium zones, as well as copper. Mining, which started last year, is focussed on getting to the copper, and stockpiling the uranium–rich material, which isn’t allowed to pass through the concentrator. So Equinox’s government-approved design for Lumwana is to mine both types of ore, recover 169,000 tonnes of copper in each of the first six years, followed by a subsequent 122,000 tonnes a year, stockpiling uranium ore all the while.

That plan looked good when uranium was US$11 a pound. It looks completely daft with uranium at US$71/lb. In dollars that means the value of the eventual 21.8 million pounds of uranium destined for Equinox’s waste dump has risen from US$240 million to US$1.5 billion – a number which is deliciously close to double the total capital cost of bringing Lumwana’s copper phase on-line.

Williams laughs when Minesite’s Man in Oz asks whether he really wants to be the man in charge of the world’s most valuable rubbish tip. “We’re working on it,” he says. “Over the last six months we’ve been running a full feasibility study on uranium, and that’s being written up right now.” Perhaps, asks Minesite somewhat cheekily, Williams would care to share the results with our readers. “Not yet,” he says. “Given that the uranium ore is going to be in a stockpile it’s a fairly straight forward exercise, with simple metallurgy, and we’re going to be, essentially, treating a stockpile.”

So, why doesn’t Equinox just get on with it and shift the 3,000 strong workforce on site at Lumwana across from copper duties to uranium duties, especially since Williams confirms that the results of the feasibility study should be released “within a month”. That, however, is when government enters the conversation. “What the process is from here is hard to say,” he says. “There are still permitting issues, and environmental impact studies.” But isn’t Zambia a uranium-friendly government, asks Minesite. “Yes, but as of right now the government doesn’t have uranium export legislation. They’ve been working on that for some time and it’s expected to be released soon. I would hope that our environmental permitting and the export legislation will be all ticked off by mid-year.”

Those comments about the process through which the uranium stage of Lumwana is passing should catch the eye of investors. What it means is that mid-2008 becomes a red-letter phase in the life of Equinox. First copper concentrate is due by then, and if all goes to plan the resulting proof that the project works as promised ought to trigger one stage of a re-rating of the company. A government green light on uranium exports would be a second trigger. Then comes the expansion plans Williams has in mind, something which he is obviously thinking about, but which might be eluding the wider market.

“This isn’t just a case of switch it on and watch it all happen,” he says. “There are a range of things happening after commissioning. We’re going to be looking at expansion, which starts with de-bottlenecking to push throughput up from 20 million to 24 million tonnes a year. In the medium term, perhaps over five years, we could crank it up another notch, perhaps to 35 million tonnes, something in that order. That’s one of the luxuries of having a 37 year mine life.”

He’s right, obviously. Lumwana is not a small mine, nor is it a short-life mine. It will be, when full-scale production starts, Africa’s biggest producing copper mine, and while other projects in the planning and construction stage, such as Tenke Fungurume, might eventually surpass Lumwana’s first stage, Williams has no desire to stand still. After expansion comes early-stage thinking about a dedicated copper smelter, and the potential development of additional orebodies that Equinox has identified close to Lumwana.

All good, so far. Now comes the tricky question: “What’s you relationship like with First Quantum,” asks Minesite, a question which draws an interesting - as in extremely interesting - reply. “Basically, we don’t have one,” Williams says with a throaty laugh. “Well, you know, they’re a shareholder, and that’s it. We’ve had no communication with them.” How interesting, thinks Minesite’s Man in Oz. Someone buys 17.27 per cent of your stock and there’s no communication – perhaps a case of silence speaking louder than words. That developing situation could well add further excitement to the already propitious mid-year that Equinox is expecting.
 
There is clearly still a degree of ignorance, however, even among the organisers of the Conference, when they say that Australia also recognises that Africa it is not one, single amorphous mass, but individual states keen on attracting foreign investors able to work within black empowerment protocols. For a start Africa is made up of 51 different countries, not states,

A "state" is a generic term for a government. Eg "Iraq is a failed state", what kind of illiterate tool writes an essay on correct knowledge of African politics without knowing that?
 
April 19, 2008 / www.minesite.com /

That Was The Week That Was ... In Australia
By Our Man in Oz

Minews. Good morning Australia. How was your week?

Oz. Calmer, is the one-word answer. The trend in the mining sector was up. Base metals, especially the nickel stocks, performed well. Iron ore, gold and uranium were mixed, and there was much less concern about stocks hit by the margin-lending crisis. The focus in that ongoing saga has now switched from the financial impact to legal argument over who sold what, and when.

Minews. It might have faded, but it was a fascinating storm in your teacup.

Oz. Absolutely. One of the more bizarre incidents of recent years. One day we might even learn why some investors handed over title to share portfolios worth A$30 million - and more - to obtain a modest margin lending facility. The risk reward ratio was completely out of kilter.

Minews. Let’s leave that for the historians, time now for prices.

Oz. Starting with nickel stocks this week because there appears to be a bit of revival underway in this space, thanks to China’s continued demand for stainless steel, as what used to be known as the Middle Kingdom switches its economic engine from exports to internal growth. Western Areas (WSA) continues to shape up as the next Jubilee Mines. It is a small producer, but from very rich orebodies, which means it has takeover target written all over it. During the week Western Areas hit a 12 month share price high of A$7.90, before easing back to close at A$7.70, up A41 cents. Driving the stock was a report from the company that its Spotted Quoll discovery contains at least 34,500 tonnes of nickel in ore averaging a very attractive 6.3 per cent nickel. Mining could be underway before the end of the year.

Other nickel stocks also had a good week. Breakaway Resources (BRW), the nickel specialist spun out of the old LionOre group, reported a maiden resource from its Horn discovery in Western Australia. At 8,300 tonnes of nickel and 1,800 tonnes of copper it’s a small deposit, but it is a first for Breakaway which has one of the best tenement positions in the nickel belt after it inherited most of LionOre’s ground. On the market, Breakaway rose A1.5 cents to A43 cents. Albidon (ALB), meanwhile is weeks away from first production at its Munali mine in Zambia, as reported on Minesite on Friday. It rose A17 cents, or 4.4 per cent, to A$4. Elsewhere, Sally Malay (SMY) rose A22 cents to A$5.05 while Poseidon (POS) did best of all in percentage terms, with a rise of A8 cents, or 12.3 per cent, to A73 cents. At one stage on Friday Poseidon traded as high as A81 cents.

Minews. Iron ore next, please, then gold.

Oz. Mixed, in both cases. The most interesting iron ore development was Atlas Iron’s decision to seek an extra A$100 million in capital to accelerate its exploration and mine development plans. The stock was in a self-imposed suspension for much of the week, but other iron ore hopefuls are watching with interest to see if investors have the appetite for such a big raising by a mid-sized miner. Another iron ore stock to self-suspend was Cazaly Resources (CAZ) which had its 15 minutes of fame last year when it claimed title to a tenement held by Rio Tinto. During the week Cazaly lost what appears to be its final appeal in front of the High Court. Cazaly’s last sale price on Thursday before the court decision was A21 cents. The company’s chief executive, Nathan McMahon, was one of the investors stung by the collapse of the Opes Prime margin lender, so you would have to say it’s been a pretty grim time for the company.

Iron ore stocks that moved higher during the week included Gindalbie (GBG) which shook off its encounter with the margin lending crisis, rising A9 cents, or 11.6 per cent, to A86 cents. Fortescue Metals (FMG) continues to generate attention as its May export deadline draws nearer. Shares in Fortescue rose A42 cents, or 6.2 per cent, to A$7.18. Golden West (GWR) seems to have shrugged off its takeover worries, and this week rose A7 cents, or 4.8 per cent, to A$1.52. Interestingly, Fairstar Resources (FAS), the company chasing Golden West, was also in the news, though not for its iron ore interests. During the week Fairstar reported interesting gold assays from its Kurnalpi tenements, and its shares rocketed up by A9 cents, or a whopping 78.3 per cent, to A20.5 cents. At one point on Thursday, Fairstar was trading as high as A27 cents.

Iron ore stocks trending down included BC Iron (BCI) which fell A5.5 cents to A94.5 cents. Brockman Iron (BRM), which reported a positive scoping study on its Marillana project, slipped A9 cents lower to A$2.01, while Cape Range (CFE) eased back by half a cent to A68.5 cents, ending several good weeks of share price recovery.

Minews. Golds now please, and then a quick wrap of the rest of the market.

Oz. Not a bad week for gold stocks, though the sharp sell-off in the London bullion market on Friday might hurt Australian gold stocks on Monday. Companies that moved higher last week included Newcrest (NCM), which was up A64 cents at A$33.34. Kingsgate (KCN) rose A15 cents to A$4.10. Ramelius (RMS) reported a high-grade hit from drilling at its Wattle Dam project and rose A16 cents, or 15.8 per cent, to A$1.17, while Navigator (NAV) also reported good gold grades from its Leonora project, and that pushed the company’s shares up A6 cents, or 13.7 per cent, to A49.5 cents. Going down, we saw Troy (TRY) ease back by A7 cents to A$2.83. Alkane (ALK) slipped A1.5 cents to A37 cents, and Silver Lake (SLR) fell A3 cents, or 9 per cent, to A30 cents. But Silver Lake is one of the more interesting new floats around, and we might take a closer look at it next week.

Minews. Last words on the sectors and any specials, please?

Oz. Coal stocks continued their upward run, which is hardly surprising with oil at US$115 a barrel. Coal of Africa (CZA) shot up to A$2.90, a rise of A57 cents, or 24.5 per cent. The company was obliged to issue a statement to the Australian market to the effect that there was no undeclared material information concerning the company. The statement also served to remind investors, though, that the price the company will receive for this year’s coal is up by 200 per cent, and that there may well be strategic buyers around looking to take a stake in the company. Straits Resources (SRL) announced a shuffle of its coal assets, and the shares rose A92 cents, or 15.3 per cent, to A$6.92 in response to the news. Macarthur Coal (MCC) rose A31 cents to A$13.25. Uranium stocks were mixed, though one deal during the week might flag a change of sentiment. Lion Selection, one of the smarter resource-focused investment funds, reported an increased stake in uranium explorer Havilah (HAV), which in turn rose A4 cents to A$1.32. Not a big deal, but a sign that fund managers are taking a fresh look at the uranium sector.

Minews. Thanks Oz.
 
May 18, 2008

That Was The Week That Was … In Australia
By Our Man in Oz
Source => www.minesite.com

Minews. Good morning Australia, another big week?

Oz. Yes and no. It was big for iron ore, as Fortescue Metals Group loaded its first ship, and big for the top two in Aussie mining, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, but not so big elsewhere. Officially, the mining index on the ASX rose by 3.7 per cent to a 12-month high of 6,036.8. But when you analyse that record high you find that most of the rise, which started from a base of less than 5,000 at the start of April, has been caused by the remarkable upward run by Fortescue, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and a handful of coal stocks.

Last week was a good example of what’s been happening. On Friday, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton both hit all-time highs. Rio traded up to A$156.69 before easing to close at A$155.35, and BHP Billiton was driven by rumours of Chinese buying to A$50 before closing at A$48.70. Those rises of six per cent and 4.7 per cent respectively also lifted the overall Australian market, as measured by the all ordinaries index, to a three month high.

Minews. Interesting at the top end, but what happened further down?

Oz. Good, in part. Most moves were modest, either way, with a few stand-out performances. Iron ore stocks seemed to run out of puff on the day Fortescue proved that its A$3.5 billion project works, perhaps a case of it being better to travel than arrive. Coal was the best overall sector. Nickel stocks were stronger. Gold stocks were weaker, with a few exceptions. Other base metal companies were all over the shop, and uranium stocks were marginally stronger.

Minews. Let’s start with iron ore, because that’s obviously what’s been driving interest in the mining market. Fortescue’s first ship must have caused a stir.

Oz. It certainly did, but there are a few people wondering whether we also witnessed the iron ore sector reaching its high-water mark on Thursday, when Fortescue (FMG) started loading. Fortescue itself did its best work as loading started, rising to an all-time high of A$9.74, and then slipping away to a Friday close of A$9.29, which was still up A11 cents for the week.

Other iron ore stocks delivered similar unimpressive performances. Atlas Iron (AGO), one of the stars of the sector, rose A5 cents to A$3.77, well down on its mid-week high of A$4.17. Aquila (AQA), another of the new breed of iron ore miners, did better with a rise of A93 cents to A$14.23, but that price should be seen against last week’s peak of A$17.45. Those moves were among the best in the sector, but there was also a long tail of small rises and falls. Gindalbie (GBG) slipped A2 cents to A$1.21. Brockman (BRM) dropped A8 cents to A$2.84. BC Iron (BCI) was A2 cents lighter at A$1.51, after a mid-week peak price of A$1.69. Cape Lambert (CFE) fell A2.5 cents to A61.5 cents, and Grange (GRR) dropped A3 cents to A$1.66. The only small stock to deliver a decent upward move was FerrAus (FRS) which rose by A17 cents, or 13.8 per cent, to A$1.40. But that closing price was also down on the mid-week high of A$1.48.

Minews. Let’s move on to the base metal stocks, starting with nickel, which still seems a favourite in your market.

Oz. The story, as it has been for the past few months, was all about Western Areas (WSA). The company hit an all-time high on Friday of A$12, before easing back to end the week at A$11.65, an overall gain during the week of A$1.20, or 11.5 per cent. The excitement about Western Areas remains centred around its latest discovery, Spotted Quoll, which seems to be getting bigger and richer with each assay result. Other nickel stocks chimed in with reasonable rises. Sally Malay (SMY) rose A43 cents to A$5.91. Minara (MRE) crept A3 cents higher to A$5.91, while Mincor and Albidon dropped A19 cents and A5 cents respectively to A$3.50 and A3.94.

Copper and zinc stocks were mixed. Most of the interest in this area still focussed on the Oxiana-Zinifex merger, and the possibility of a spoiler bid from Xstrata. Oxiana (OXR) rose a marginal A3 cents to A$3.51, and Zinifex (ZFX) gained an equally marginal A25 cents to A$10.72. Xstrata, meanwhile, did show that it remains on the acquisition trail after it launched a bid for Indophil, its partner in the Tampakan copper-gold project in the Philippines. Indophil promptly shot up by A37 cents, or 48.7 per cent, to A$1.13.

Minews. Gold and coal, to finish, please.

Oz. Not a lot to talk about with the gold stocks, largely because the price didn’t do much while we were awake. That last minute gold price surge up to US$897 in London on Friday should produce a different result down this way on Monday. On the ASX last week Kingsgate (KCN) crept higher, rising A6 cents to A$5.49. Resolute (RSG) rose A3 cents to A$1.98. Also, an old favourite of ours, Croesus (CRS) returned after a major reconstruction. It started its new life at A1.3 cents, and ended the week at A3.4 cents. Other moves were generally down. Troy (TRY) dropped A13 cents to A$2.24. Allied (ALD) slipped A1 cent to A65 cents, and Apex fell A7.5 cents to A80 cents.

Coal stocks kept rising, largely in sympathy with the oil price. Coal of Africa (CZA), Macarthur (MCC), and Felix (FLX) all hit 12 month share price highs. Coal of Africa traded up to A$3.97 on Friday, before closing at A$3.87 for an overall gain of A6 cents on the week. Macarthur rose to A$18.33 before closing at A17.75, for an overall gain of A75 cents, and Felix got to A17.33, but ended the week at A16.91, a rise of A$1.10.

Minews. Thanks Oz.
 
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