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I have been spruiking up TGA for so long, I must sound like a broken record. Since 2007 until a few days ago, I have been a regular buyer, having bought eighteen times at prices ranging from 55 cents to $2.03, to average $1.07. I have never sold TGA, and at last count I have 348,500 – 167,000 in my SMSF and 181,500 held in my own name. I mention these facts so that you know that I am a serious investor in TGA, and you can be reasonably sure that I watch TGA like a hawk, especially as my enthusiasm for TGA is not shared by many investors who are not slouches, and I perennially wonder if I am out of step.
Opinions on the value of TGA range roughly from $1.50 to about $3.00. The differences of opinion stem from differences of perception about the dynamics of the TGA business model, and to a much lesser degree the metrics used.
Let us first clarify the metrics. The profit after tax was $22,038,000, but the one-off NCML acquisition costs were $1 million, so the normalised profit was approximately $23,038,000. The weighted average number of shareholders at 31/03/2011 was 130,737,000, and hence the normalised EPS is 17.622 cents. The ROE is 26.07%, calculated thus:
Earnings YE 31/3/2011 -- $23,038,000
Equity - start of year ---- $81,767,000
Equity – end of year ----- $95,003,000
Average Equity ----------- $88,385,000
Earnings/Av Equity (ROE) ---- 26.07%
If one uses PER to guesstimate an intrinsic value for TGA, then if one thought it was a risky stock, one might use a PER of 9, and the EPS of 16.9 cents as shown in the Morningstar figures one sees via Comsec and Westpac, then one could derive a value of 9 x $.169 = $1.52. The basic EPS mentioned in the TGA report for YE 31/3/2011 is 17.01 cents, and the diluted EPS 16.86 cents, so using either of these makes a minor difference of about a cent. Using the normalised EPS of 17.622 cents times 9 gives $1.59. This normalised EPS is the sensible figure to use, so let us now see how the guesstimated intrinsic value would vary by using different PERs:
PER -------- EPS $ ------ Value Share $
9 ----------- 0.17622 -------------- 1.59
10 --------- 0.17622 -------------- 1.76
11 --------- 0.17622 -------------- 1.94
12 --------- 0.17622 -------------- 2.11
13 --------- 0.17622 -------------- 2.29
14 --------- 0.17622 -------------- 2.47
14 .5 ------ 0.17622 -------------- 2.56
15 --------- 0.17622 -------------- 2.64
What PER is apt for TGA? A high one in my view, because the business has been around for over 70 years, it has an ASX record of steady and growing EPS, it has a good ROE of 26%, its income is substantially contracted rental streams with a history of very low default and on average these commitments have over two years to run, its customer demographic is little impacted by the rate of interest, the Australia-centric nature of the business obviates currency risks, and for the first time TGA's management have stated that the year ending 31/03/2012 will be excellent (to quote: “. . . the company expects a substantial increase in earnings in the financial year ending 31 March 2012 due to a full year contribution from the acquisition of NCML and solid organic earnings growth from the existing business.”). I could go on pointing out the unique strengths of TGA – the sole purposeof which is to ensure that you select an appropriate PER, if that is what you use, or the appropriate internal rate of return (RR), if you guesstimate intrisic value using RR as part of the calculation.
I pulled out a few good shares last night to see what PER is now applicable to them – to wit:
---------- SP ----- PER
UGL ---- 15.23 --15.55
WOW -- 27.38 -- 15.56
TRS ---- 10.60 --14.07
JBH ---- 16.53 -- 13.59
MMS --- 10.20 -- 17.84
MTU ----- 3.45 -- 14.2
Average PER -- 15.135
All the above suggests to me that TGA is at least worth $2.50 using a simple PER approach.
If you divide the ROE by a required rate of return (RR) to arrive at a factor to uplift the Book Value (Equity per share) to arrive at an intrinsic value, then the RR that you select will make a huge difference to what you think TGA is worth. In simple terms, ignoring retained earnings, you get the following results in respect of TGA. The average equity for TGA for the year was 67.61 cents per share, so if you use an RR of 10%, and an ROE of 26.07%, then the factor would be 2.6, which multiplied by 67.61 cents gives a share price of $1.76.
However, if the company retains 50% of the earnings, the factor increases. By my calculations Roger Montgomery should (but does not) arrive at a factor of about 4.1123 (the decimals are not intended to convey conviction), and multiplying that by 67.71 cents gives $2.78. Roger recently wrote that he valued TGA at $1.57, which is what would happen if one used an RR of about 14% (I have not double checked this – suffice to write that one can get at any value by simply adjusting the RR). If I could get 14% from a bank, I would not bother investing in the ASX, I would put the lot in the bank and live of the interest, and hence I think that for TGA, a 10% RR is reasonable. Do your own research, and select your own RR.
I think TGA falls within Roger's top 20 ASX-listed companies, and he classifies it as an A1 company, which in itself suggests a low RR. I am a bit surprised at the low intrinsic value that he has calculated for TGA.
As I have written before, I think TGA is worth something north of $2.50. Some people think it is worth $3.00, and some about $1.50. Let us see what Mr Market decides in coming months.
I have been spruiking up TGA for so long, I must sound like a broken record...
I pulled out a few good shares last night to see what PER is now applicable to them – to wit:
---------- SP ----- PER
UGL ---- 15.23 --15.55
WOW -- 27.38 -- 15.56
TRS ---- 10.60 --14.07
JBH ---- 16.53 -- 13.59
MMS --- 10.20 -- 17.84
MTU ----- 3.45 -- 14.2
Average PER -- 15.135
Great post and thanks for sharing.
Personally I would value TGA using a PEG of 1. Given that they are growing NPAT at ~15%, a PE of 15 and value of $2.6 seems fair. This obviously is subjected to them maintaining their growth...
Careful with your list of comparables - while they are all good companies, they have vastly different risk and growth profiles (e.g. UGL is in engineering, building trains with the biggest risk being project stuff up, while MMS does salary packaging with the biggest risk being regulation changes).
I have been spruiking up TGA for so long, I must sound like a broken record. Since 2007 until a few days ago, I have been a regular buyer, having bought eighteen times at prices ranging from 55 cents to $2.03, to average $1.07. I have never sold TGA, and at last count I have 348,500 – 167,000 in my SMSF and 181,500 held in my own name. I mention these facts so that you know that I am a serious investor in TGA, and you can be reasonably sure that I watch TGA like a hawk, especially as my enthusiasm for TGA is not shared by many investors who are not slouches, and I perennially wonder if I am out of step.
Opinions on the value of TGA range roughly from $1.50 to about $3.00. The differences of opinion stem from differences of perception about the dynamics of the TGA business model, and to a much lesser degree the metrics used.
Let us first clarify the metrics. The profit after tax was $22,038,000, but the one-off NCML acquisition costs were $1 million, so the normalised profit was approximately $23,038,000. The weighted average number of shareholders at 31/03/2011 was 130,737,000, and hence the normalised EPS is 17.622 cents. The ROE is 26.07%, calculated thus:
Earnings YE 31/3/2011 -- $23,038,000
Equity - start of year ---- $81,767,000
Equity – end of year ----- $95,003,000
Average Equity ----------- $88,385,000
Earnings/Av Equity (ROE) ---- 26.07%
If one uses PER to guesstimate an intrinsic value for TGA, then if one thought it was a risky stock, one might use a PER of 9, and the EPS of 16.9 cents as shown in the Morningstar figures one sees via Comsec and Westpac, then one could derive a value of 9 x $.169 = $1.52. The basic EPS mentioned in the TGA report for YE 31/3/2011 is 17.01 cents, and the diluted EPS 16.86 cents, so using either of these makes a minor difference of about a cent. Using the normalised EPS of 17.622 cents times 9 gives $1.59. This normalised EPS is the sensible figure to use, so let us now see how the guesstimated intrinsic value would vary by using different PERs:
PER -------- EPS $ ------ Value Share $
9 ----------- 0.17622 -------------- 1.59
10 --------- 0.17622 -------------- 1.76
11 --------- 0.17622 -------------- 1.94
12 --------- 0.17622 -------------- 2.11
13 --------- 0.17622 -------------- 2.29
14 --------- 0.17622 -------------- 2.47
14 .5 ------ 0.17622 -------------- 2.56
15 --------- 0.17622 -------------- 2.64
What PER is apt for TGA? A high one in my view, because the business has been around for over 70 years, it has an ASX record of steady and growing EPS, it has a good ROE of 26%, its income is substantially contracted rental streams with a history of very low default and on average these commitments have over two years to run, its customer demographic is little impacted by the rate of interest, the Australia-centric nature of the business obviates currency risks, and for the first time TGA's management have stated that the year ending 31/03/2012 will be excellent (to quote: “. . . the company expects a substantial increase in earnings in the financial year ending 31 March 2012 due to a full year contribution from the acquisition of NCML and solid organic earnings growth from the existing business.”). I could go on pointing out the unique strengths of TGA – the sole purposeof which is to ensure that you select an appropriate PER, if that is what you use, or the appropriate internal rate of return (RR), if you guesstimate intrisic value using RR as part of the calculation.
I pulled out a few good shares last night to see what PER is now applicable to them – to wit:
---------- SP ----- PER
UGL ---- 15.23 --15.55
WOW -- 27.38 -- 15.56
TRS ---- 10.60 --14.07
JBH ---- 16.53 -- 13.59
MMS --- 10.20 -- 17.84
MTU ----- 3.45 -- 14.2
Average PER -- 15.135
All the above suggests to me that TGA is at least worth $2.50 using a simple PER approach.
If you divide the ROE by a required rate of return (RR) to arrive at a factor to uplift the Book Value (Equity per share) to arrive at an intrinsic value, then the RR that you select will make a huge difference to what you think TGA is worth. In simple terms, ignoring retained earnings, you get the following results in respect of TGA. The average equity for TGA for the year was 67.61 cents per share, so if you use an RR of 10%, and an ROE of 26.07%, then the factor would be 2.6, which multiplied by 67.61 cents gives a share price of $1.76.
However, if the company retains 50% of the earnings, the factor increases. By my calculations Roger Montgomery should (but does not) arrive at a factor of about 4.1123 (the decimals are not intended to convey conviction), and multiplying that by 67.71 cents gives $2.78. Roger recently wrote that he valued TGA at $1.57, which is what would happen if one used an RR of about 14% (I have not double checked this – suffice to write that one can get at any value by simply adjusting the RR). If I could get 14% from a bank, I would not bother investing in the ASX, I would put the lot in the bank and live of the interest, and hence I think that for TGA, a 10% RR is reasonable. Do your own research, and select your own RR.
I think TGA falls within Roger's top 20 ASX-listed companies, and he classifies it as an A1 company, which in itself suggests a low RR. I am a bit surprised at the low intrinsic value that he has calculated for TGA.
As I have written before, I think TGA is worth something north of $2.50. Some people think it is worth $3.00, and some about $1.50. Let us see what Mr Market decides in coming months.
On the negative side TGA is a small cap
Yes the RR significantly affects the IV. 14 percent is on the high side but I think the RR is used discretionarily based on any number of factors. eg competitive advantage, barriers to entry, track record, industry etc
I get 2.10 as the current IV using 14percent RR.
IMO, using a required return rate of 14% for TGA is too conservative for this type of company. Perhaps a higher margin of safety can now be justified due to the debt TGA has taken on to finalise its latest acquisition, but I would be looking at using a RR of 11%-12% for TGA.
I agree I reckon it is the debt that is worrying RM and why he has put an RR of 14 percent on TGA.
What is the debt to equity ratio?
Is it published in current data on any of the brokerage sites?
Generally shares are priced on the basis of estimated future earnings or potential, and using a DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) calculation as follows -
Current EPS 17c
Anticipated future increase 12% pa
(Based on an increase of 12% since listing, and a 2010/11 increase of 13%)
DCF valuation would be $2.50.
BUt if those earning are debt fuelled then the formula is very misleading.
Not really.
The interest on the debt is already covered prior to calculating NPAT, which is then used in turn to calculate EPS.
I got the letter from Thorn but maybe im overlooking something.
How does someone take advantage of there 1 in 8 share offer?
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