TGA - Thorn Group

[oldblue]

Pioupiou, this is getting off the thread a bit but CPB is a stock that meets your criteria. It also announced its results yesterday:

27% increase in revenue

+ 57% EBIT

+68% NPAT

+62% EPS

Paid dividends for last 10 years, increasing from 30cps pa to latest $2.25.

ROE 25%

Gearing 28%

Not cheap at around $59, yielding around 3.8%.

Disc: I hold a few at an average cost of about $12.

Past performance is no guarantee for the future of course, so my current search is aimed at stocks with the potential to grow. They won't all meet a strict set of criteria and they won't all be successes. I just hope to get enough of them!

 

[McLovin]

Tax cost base from NCML has been increased above balance sheet figures for PDL's and Plant and equipment???

Yeah note 30 has me scratching my head. Although, the tax cost base for the PPE has been revised down not up.

 

[craft]

Yeah note 30 has me scratching my head. Although, the tax cost base for the PPE has been revised down not up.

Yep PPE was down – looks immaterial but PDLs another matter.

The cynical questions – would PDL revaluation been possible if correct amount was on Balance Sheet? Associated reduction in goodwill probably helped them avoid goodwill impairment.

How rubbery can you get in establishing a tax cost base for PDL’s?

 

[McLovin]

Yep PPE was down – looks immaterial but PDLs another matter.

The cynical questions – would PDL revaluation been possible if correct amount was on Balance Sheet? Associated reduction in goodwill probably helped them avoid goodwill impairment.

How rubbery can you get in establishing a tax cost base for PDL’s?

I think we've just seen a clever, and I guess according to AASB 3 legal, way to get around having to write down goodwill associated with the loss of the ATO contract. Instead of writing down the goodwill they just wrote up the cost base.

Maybe I'm being too cynical.

 

[skc]

I think we've just seen a clever, and I guess according to AASB 3 legal, way to get around having to write down goodwill associated with the loss of the ATO contract. Instead of writing down the goodwill they just wrote up the cost base.

Maybe I'm being too cynical.

The market isn't exactly thrilled with the results either. Decent buying initially but distribution started at $1.50 and then sold down into the close. Not the most convincing price action for the day.

Tomorrow imo will be telling, as analysts adjust their forecast and recommendations.

 

[Pioupiou]

The market isn't exactly thrilled with the results either. Decent buying initially but distribution started at $1.50 and then sold down into the close. Not the most convincing price action for the day.

Tomorrow imo will be telling, as analysts adjust their forecast and recommendations.

PPT may still be selling, and that would not reflect that it has given the published TGA results much consideration. Just like my recent selling of about $1200 worth of CCV at a small loss to my original buy-in price - it was such a relatively small % of my portfolio that it did not merit a row on my spreadsheet. If I had a forlorn $50K looking for a home, I may well, subject to research, have bought CCV, rather than sold.

We should not attach too much concern to NCML negatives - they only equate to a few cents of the SP.

I have not digested the YE 30/03/2012 report yet, but even if it has negatives, which I am sure it has, the question is - what stock is a better place to park ones wealth?

 

[tech/a]

Well you don't park it in a stock at $2.03 and leave it there to $1.50

There is cash?
There is hedging?
There are other vehicles to trade.
There are other time frames ---- other than forever.
There are ways to mitigate risk so your not STUCK in a trade which has decimated capital invested.

 

[odds-on]

Well you don't park it in a stock at $2.03 and leave it there to $1.50

There is cash?
There is hedging?
There are other vehicles to trade.
There are other time frames ---- other than forever.
There are ways to mitigate risk so your not STUCK in a trade which has decimated capital invested.

Have you thought about creating a thread titled “A guide to portfolio management by Tech/a” ?

 

[Nutmeg]

Have you thought about creating a thread titled “A guide to portfolio management by Tech/a” ?

Imagine the following that that would have - the power of one!

 

[tech/a]

Have you thought about creating a thread titled “A guide to portfolio management by Tech/a” ?

Unless you buy and hold to a pre determined (by the power of one--valuation price).
The sheep are not interested in any other suggestion.

The thread is punctuated with followers of the faith for ever regurgitating "evidence" of their conviction.

Carry on.

 

[Nutmeg]

The sheep are not interested in any other suggestion.

This from a guy who takes his buying cues from the mere fact that others are buying and his selling cues from the mere fact that others are selling.

 

[tech/a]

This from a guy who takes his buying cues from the mere fact that others are buying and his selling cues from the mere fact that others are selling.

Post 541
Is how I would trade this.
Do I detect some anger from the food spice?

 

[Julia]

Imagine the following that that would have - the power of one!

On the contrary. As someone relatively new to this forum, you obviously have little comprehension of the number of people Tech has helped over many years.

You might consider not allowing your own lack of understanding of a technical approach to blind you to others' skills.

 

[Klogg]

Guys, please lets not go down this path again.

And tech - while I do appreciate your input, please don't refer to me as a 'sheep' or any other farmyard animal, regardless of what you think of my approach.

Thanks.

 

[tech/a]

I didnt refer to yourself or anyone specifically.
It was and is a generic sheep.
Infact Ive seen it refered buy others here without concern from ---err myself--as it was directed to moi'
If you have a look at post 541 youll see my suggestions.

The rest is slanging from the sheep.

I note TGA is still struggling in its consolidation.
Its quaterly report un able to attract new buyers.
So the analysis is still "true".

Carry on.

 

[Klogg]

I didnt refer to yourself or anyone specifically.
It was and is a generic sheep.
Infact Ive seen it refered buy others here without concern from ---err myself--as it was directed to moi'
If you have a look at post 541 youll see my suggestions.

The rest is slanging from the sheep.

I note TGA is still struggling in its consolidation.
Its quaterly report un able to attract new buyers.
So the analysis is still "true".

Carry on.

OK, my apologies then on the slanging.

Interesting point you make on being unable to attract new buyers though. I read it a little differently - I would have thought it's attracted buyers (i.e. higher volumes than the last few weeks, excl. the day of the speeding ticket), but has increased selling too...
That's probably a bit of a moot point anyway - unless you believe PPT are selling into the increased buying.

 

[tech/a]

OK, my apologies then on the slanging.

Interesting point you make on being unable to attract new buyers though. I read it a little differently - I would have thought it's attracted buyers (i.e. higher volumes than the last few weeks, excl. the day of the speeding ticket), but has increased selling too...
That's probably a bit of a moot point anyway - unless you believe PPT are selling into the increased buying.

Someone is---it doesn't really matter who.
Supply (selling) will stop an instrument from rising in price.
Supply either needs to be exhausted in which case there will be little resistance to price rising.
OR
It needs to be over run by new and sustained buying---this will also have the effect of stopping sellers in their tracks --- most will stick around while price is rising.

So the struggle goes on.
To me a clear winner to the upside will be as I have described in #541
Until then its just conjecture.

I'm sure there will be plenty of it---(Conjecture).

 

[McCoy Pauley]

The fact that TGA finished today steady in a market that finished more than 1% lower suggests that there might be some buying coming into the company.

Hard to extrapolate from one or two days' price action, though.

 

[craft]

If you think of stocks that are nearly as good as TGA, let me know. I want to rejig my two portfolios to allow me to sell some of the crud that I hold, and perhaps even shed some TGAs if I can find stocks roughly on par with it. Basically I want candidates that pay a dividend (not necessarily a large dividend), have little debt (will look at debt/equity as high as 35%), have reasonable growth (about 10% will do) and have capitalisations north of $100M. These are stocks I intend to hold - I am not a trader. I am already retired, and living off my SMSF and a personal share portfolios.

It would be good to have something other than TGA occupying my mindspace.

Have a look at MMS. The company is strong enough to have fleet funding on balance sheet so it doesn't meet your debt/equity ratio but that shouldn't deter you. Even if you decide the company is not for you it will be good background research in fleet management/funding considering TGA's rent/drive/buy proposal.

 

[Ves]

Have a look at MMS. The company is strong enough to have fleet funding on balance sheet so it doesn't meet your debt/equity ratio but that shouldn't deter you. Even if you decide the company is not for you it will be good background research in fleet management/funding considering TGA's rent/drive/buy proposal.

Any chance of more whisperings by the media that the government is going to change the FBT / salary packaging rules so we can get it at half-price? Doesn't look cheap enough at the moment.