Technical Trading Exercise (Pavilion103 and tech/a) Discussion

[tech/a]

Sorry guys didn't even realise there was a discussion thread, my bad!

No worries Sam You weren't the first and wont be the last.

 

[burglar]

I've had a "Road to Damascus" moment.

I spotted a pattern in a chart.




Ok. I was wrong the other day about the cup and handle (AXE thread), coz I didn't understand it had to have certain volume characteristics.

And I'm still unaware of what constitutes the 'certain volume characteristics' for pennants.
I so want this SWE chart to be a pennant!!

 

[tech/a]

Sell GEM post tonight

 

[skc]

Sell GEM post tonight

They just did a placement @ $3.10, FWIW...

 

[skc]

View attachment 54761

Updates

ATU was stopped out 2 weeks ago.

26/9 Tidy up.

With ~30 trades under the belt, how are the stats compare to your expectations? Or is it too early to tell?

Obviously you are in a drawdown period but this is also the more important period as far as trading goes. Everyone can happily trade and internally compound when trades are going well, but it is the drawdown period that makes people do things perhaps they shouldn't.

Any comments / discussions on the trading overall? What went well and what hasn't gone as planned?

 

[qldfrog]

interesting in your respective thoughts:
did similar exercise since 1/07/13, lost money (more than Tech/a) but on many more trades loosing an average of $44 by trade so not good.
own stop and look revealed a lot of the loss on only a few trades which went straight thru my stop loss.
And too many entries before consolidated trends
But would be very interested by Tech/a feedback on this exercice so far

 

[tech/a]

interesting in your respective thoughts:
did similar exercise since 1/07/13, lost money (more than Tech/a) but on many more trades loosing an average of $44 by trade so not good.
own stop and look revealed a lot of the loss on only a few trades which went straight thru my stop loss.
And too many entries before consolidated trends
But would be very interested by Tech/a feedback on this exercice so far

Sorry been meaning to answer this for ages.

Yes I am disappointed with the results.
Purely on a market basis.
Looking back at the larger majority of trades closed
few turned and went on with it. In fact many kept falling.

I would think that had we had a buy and hold strategy we would
be worse off.
What I am happy with is the draw down being kept to reasonable levels.

The number of trades needed to turn a profit will not be great and I'm sure
we will have a few in the next couple of months before the FED need to face the same
problem again in Jan.

I've been terribly busy of late and haven't been able to invest the time I should into this thread
so back to it!!

 

[pavilion103]

Tech, I reckon the fact that you've been busy the last couple of weeks (through no fault of your own) has meant that we've missed some opportunities while the market has had a string of up days.

In my personal portfolio I've found that the buys from 2-3 weeks ago are in good profit. Almost everything of mine has been going up.

So I reckon if we had thrown a few of those in we would have been tracking ok.

 

[brty]

As my version of exel is too old to open the files supplied by Pav, I was unaware, and surprised the system is in drawdown.

I recognised many of the chart patterns, simply because I was long or was purchasing many of the same stocks. I have very good profits in such issues as TGR, MGX and SHV (sold last week). As I pyramid on the way up, and I thought the system presented was adding to the winners, where was the weakness?

Were the initial stops too close? Were stops raised too quickly? Was the portfolio spread too thinly?

A set of results from a system is an excellent source of information too play around with. Now that all the stats are in, optimise them, then forward test the optimisation.

 

[Country Lad]

Were the initial stops too close? Were stops raised too quickly?

I think the issue is the use of arbitrary stops like break-even. I have traded couple as well and use only technical stops which kept me in the trade longer.

I’ll see if I can find a couple of examples later – I am on a train at the moment heading into the CBD. A novel experience for me, I haven’t travel this way for many years.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[tech/a]

Tech, I reckon the fact that you've been busy the last couple of weeks (through no fault of your own) has meant that we've missed some opportunities while the market has had a string of up days.

In my personal portfolio I've found that the buys from 2-3 weeks ago are in good profit. Almost everything of mine has been going up.

So I reckon if we had thrown a few of those in we would have been tracking ok.

No doubt.

BUT

The whole idea of trading and the ability to actually "Trade"
Is to have a methodology which allows you to trade when and where you can.
In reality this does happen to me---Particularly now when I don't have the time to manage my portfolio properly.
Id rather not trade than put my funds at risk due to poor management.

We will get into profit in time enough.

 

[pavilion103]

No doubt. BUT The whole idea of trading and the ability to actually "Trade" Is to have a methodology which allows you to trade when and where you can. In reality this does happen to me---Particularly now when I don't have the time to manage my portfolio properly. Id rather not trade than put my funds at risk due to poor management. We will get into profit in time enough.

I agree.

And it can happen just the same on the opposite side where you happen to be too busy to trade and luckily it coincides with the market turning down and you end up not losing money you otherwise may have.

I know with this exercise you have spent additional time posing and drawing up charts so it really becomes a lot more time consuming than usual.

I find I spend very little time at night updating my trades now. I do 2 scans (eye ball each chart for a couple of seconds), check my watchlist, update my trailing stop and set new orders.
Usually 15-30mins, especially on the lower end of this when most of my capital is tied up and I can't be bothered looking for new trades!

 

[pavilion103]

I think the issue is the use of arbitrary stops like break-even. I have traded couple as well and use only technical stops which kept me in the trade longer. I’ll see if I can find a couple of examples later – I am on a train at the moment heading into the CBD. A novel experience for me, I haven’t travel this way for many years. Cheers Country Lad

Interesting point in regards to the break-even stop, particularly when not considered to be at a technically sound level that makes sense from a technical point of view.

But with these momentum trades the idea is to get on exactly that, momentum. If it doesn't take off initially then our initial analysis has not been validated and if it comes back to break-even it makes more sense to get out and put the capital to use in another setup which is about to take off.

I've definitely found when trading a momentum strategy that almost all the great winners take off straight away. I don't regret exiting at break even.
If I had a longer term holding strategy then it may be a different story.

 

[tech/a]

Interesting point in regards to the break-even stop, particularly when not considered to be at a technically sound level that makes sense from a technical point of view.

But with these momentum trades the idea is to get on exactly that, momentum. If it doesn't take off initially then our initial analysis has not been validated and if it comes back to break-even it makes more sense to get out and put the capital to use in another setup which is about to take off.

I've definitely found when trading a momentum strategy that almost all the great winners take off straight away. I don't regret exiting at break even.
If I had a longer term holding strategy then it may be a different story.

My way of trading is to find momentum and go with it.
In this exercise there isn't much going---!!

Sure you can argue many variants in hindsight.
You can also apply many variants in real time.
But I have noticed many of the B/E trades went on to take out their initial stops.
So maybe not a great deal of difference---I don't know I haven't looked at it.

I want momentum to continue if it doesn't than I'm out.
Sure ill miss some good moves.
But in the end Ill get my fair share also without massive drawdown.

I will continue here soon.

 

[Boggo]

My way of trading is to find momentum and go with it.
In this exercise there isn't much going---!!

Sure you can argue many variants in hindsight.
You can also apply many variants in real time.
But I have noticed many of the B/E trades went on to take out their initial stops.
So maybe not a great deal of difference---I don't know I haven't looked at it.

I want momentum to continue if it doesn't then I'm out.
Sure ill miss some good moves.
But in the end Ill get my fair share also without massive drawdown.

I will continue here soon.

Agree entirely, no momentum move out and on to the next.
The timing of the commencement of this exercise has been the best test you could have had, in a positive sentiment market the rest should be easy knowing that capital protection works.

(click to expand)

 

[pavilion103]

Btw what so you reckon of my new avatar Tech? Good resemblance?

 

[tech/a]

Btw what so you reckon of my new avatar Tech? Good resemblance?

Thought it was a Photo.

 

[pavilion103]

Thought it was a Photo.

Haha

 

[barney]

Btw what so you reckon of my new avatar Tech? Good resemblance?

So you are really Torrance Coombs! ..... I knew you were a star Pav:

 

[tech/a]

PAV
HGO or any prospect is on he list
Awaiting a buy signal.
From here stops and position sizing
Can be frmulated