Technical Trading Exercise (Pavilion103 and tech/a) Discussion

[tech/a]

Kid
Your right there were less and less set ups
And more of this setups we did get didn't trigger.
That was a pre curser to the index analysis.

A very similar thing happened with T/T ( Tech Trader )
In 2008

PAV
As for live trading --- there is a vast difference between testing
Hypothesizing theory and trading live.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

First of all I would have though you might say "test with more OOS" data, then you might say "walk it forward"...

Why would he test that live?

GB, was this system designed to do the same sort of thing Tech and Pav are trying to do? Is that why you posted it here?

It's not something anyone should trade live. I'm just throwing around ideas and I'm probably on the wrong thread. There are similarities in that it targets high momentum stocks. It's different in that it buys when others are selling, or soon after.

 

[pavilion103]

It's not something anyone should trade live. I'm just throwing around ideas and I'm probably on the wrong thread. There are similarities in that it targets high momentum stocks. It's different in that it buys when others are selling, or soon after.

It's interesting GB.

I definitely don't believe there is only one correct way.

I enjoy discussing different methods.

 

[skc]

Tech, you seem to be the only one putting it on the line and trading this live. I respect input from all but am disappointed that none of the others are putting their balls on the line live!

Sorry to disappoint but since I trade someone else's money it would be rather unprofessional of me to post live trades and not give full attention to my own actual trading.

 

[tech/a]

Sorry to disappoint but since I trade someone else's money it would be rather unprofessional of me to post live trades and not give full attention to my own actual trading.

Bit lame.
Takes about 15 min
I don't think you need to develope
A conflict of interests.

But each to their own--it's not easy.

 

[skc]

Bit lame.
Takes about 15 min
I don't think you need to develope
A conflict of interests.

But each to their own--it's not easy.

It's not just conflict of interest. It's demand for time, screen space and attention. It might only take you 15mins but it'd take me a lot more time to find various trade set ups, monitor the positions, and even read the company's fundamentals (so I know when they are going ex-div, for instance).

I also wanted to make sure, if I do post a trade journal I'd do it with plenty of details and analysis... an example was here in the pairs trade journal https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=14508&page=36&p=709183&viewfull=1#post709183. That took quite a lot of posting, but if I can't do it to that standard I wouldn't do it at all. Back then I wasn't trading for someone else, my size was about 1/10 of what it is now, and I didn't have a 2nd child. So I simply haven't got the same time to commit to a journal anymore.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I might do one for a week or so, and just for a challenge eek see if i can make 10%. Actually that's a bit high... maybe 5%.
The difficulty with public journalling is always the extra pressure to perform, because if you don't perform, everyone will delight in telling you what you should have done or where you went wrong. But if pressure creates difficulty, then it's probably a very good exercise in concentration.

 

[tech/a]

It's not just conflict of interest. It's demand for time, screen space and attention. It might only take you 15mins but it'd take me a lot more time to find various trade set ups, monitor the positions, and even read the company's fundamentals (so I know when they are going ex-div, for instance).

I also wanted to make sure, if I do post a trade journal I'd do it with plenty of details and analysis... an example was here in the pairs trade journal https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...=14508&page=36&p=709183&viewfull=1#post709183. That took quite a lot of posting, but if I can't do it to that standard I wouldn't do it at all. Back then I wasn't trading for someone else, my size was about 1/10 of what it is now, and I didn't have a 2nd child. So I simply haven't got the same time to commit to a journal anymore.

OK

I see your point its impossible to make time!!!

 

[skc]

OK

I see your point its impossible to make time!!!

Not impossible. But not worth it.

 

[tech/a]

Thanks SKC and Peter for your (Your in the context of this reply---- below-- is not directed specifically at anyone but is used as a generic term for everyone else) comments.

In reply.

******PAV originally came to me concerned that he wasn't making headway and his bank was being eroded quicker than he would like.

So I purposely traded in a discretionary manner with very strict management for a good reason.
Reason 1 was to show to PAV an on going trade management structure that was based upon a daily review of each trade. A habit that in my view should be adopted no matter what style you adopt for your own trading.

This exercise has shown that.

I wanted to show that you could use leverage safely without massive draw down.

This exercise has shown that.

I also wanted to show that recovery from a negative balance could and should be swift.

This exercise has definitely shown that.

I wanted to show that cutting losses short and letting winners run can be very lucrative.
While we only have 1 decent winner on the block.

The exercise has shown that.

I also wanted to show that once in a trade and the risk is mitigated then is the time to let the reigns a little looser.
A screaming bull market would definitely help all methods and demonstrate this premise far better---but

I think the exercise has also shown that.

Is it the method of methods---of course not.
Has it helped PAV--evidently.
Has it helped anyone else--unknown.

One thing I do know is that hind site evaluation will be correct 100% of the time.
But suggest that if you really want to prove to yourself --- you trade in the way you suggest is better than any one method shown here by any other poster who places up his real time trades.

Do it here and in real time like this.

You'll be surprised how completely different the results will be to your hind site evaluations.

In the meantime I will continue if there is the interest.

However if the purpose has been served and is not seen as beneficial then I'm happy to stop.
I have plenty of other things to keep me busy.

I wanted to post this back up for T/H's benefit.

Adding one other thing I was hoping to show and now have.

Recovery from draw down
From 8% down to 8% up in 3 winning trades in 3 weeks.
16% turn around so we have successfully mitigated risk.
And recouped draw down in a short time.

Now to T/H s comment about this being MY EDGE---OR LACK OF.

Ill say this again and type very slowly.
GO TO HERE ABOVE *****

It has and is serving its purpose. It does NOTHING ELSE but keep you in the game and gives you the best opportunity to be profitable---in the extreme.

Others have pointed out and rightly so that there are a million ways to trade a variant---which could be infinitely better. FINE.

But for those like PAV who needed a hand this is what it was and is about in the purest form I could think of.
If there is a better way please share it!

Anytime anyone including T/H wants to post up a live SHARE trading methodology which demonstrates a method of trading---I'm all for it.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Anytime anyone including T/H wants to post up a live SHARE trading methodology which demonstrates a method of trading---I'm all for it.

Tech as always good to make it about you....... again.

So,

Lets face you are the first to criticise others approaches in spite of having a woeful understanding of the market outside of a roaring bull run. Thats fine. Frankly if it makes yourself feel good to tell everyone how you made some money in the biggest bull market since the great depression well...... wherever floats your boat.

But that was not what I was talking about. I was simply trying to point out to some poor sucker that trying to replicate someone's approach is a recipe for failure***. Unfortunately your ego loves to be stroked and you never considered that what Kid was asking you to do was the worst thing for his development as an independent long term successful trader. If he wants to trade short term HE needs to develop his own method or he has no frigging hope of his brain being able to deal with decisions on such a short timeframe. Let alone the confidence and resilience to adapt a method once the market changes.





***(admittedly with a good & deserved jab at you after the grief you gave me turning $800 into 15g in 4 days while you flop around with 100g for six months and make nothing!)

 

[tech/a]

Tech as always good to make it about you....... again.

So,

Lets face you are the first to criticise others approaches in spite of having a woeful understanding of the market outside of a roaring bull run. Thats fine. Frankly if it makes yourself feel good to tell everyone how you made some money in the biggest bull market since the great depression well...... wherever floats your boat.

But that was not what I was talking about. I was simply trying to point out to some poor sucker that trying to replicate someone's approach is a recipe for failure***. Unfortunately your ego loves to be stroked and you never considered that what Kid was asking you to do was the worst thing for his development as an independent long term successful trader. If he wants to trade short term HE needs to develop his own method or he has no frigging hope of his brain being able to deal with decisions on such a short timeframe. Let alone the confidence and resilience to adapt a method once the market changes.





***(admittedly with a good & deserved jab at you after the grief you gave me turning $800 into 15g in 4 days while you flop around with 100g for six months and make nothing!)

OK you win.

 

[tech/a]

The exercise has shown all the components I wanted to show PAV
And now you.
I don't have the time or inclination to devote to a live trading exercise
In which I try to maximize profit.You can see clearly here that with such a small portfolio I'm struggling to update and add new prospects.

My thoughts are the same as SKC.

So I will now cease to update this exercise as it has for me----served it purpose.
I hope there are some who take something from this and develop a profitable strategy around
The basic premise.

 

[skc]

The exercise has shown all the components I wanted to show PAV
And now you.
I don't have the time or inclination to devote to a live trading exercise
In which I try to maximize profit.You can see clearly here that with such a small portfolio I'm struggling to update and add new prospects.

My thoughts are the same as SKC.

So I will now cease to update this exercise as it has for me----served it purpose.
I hope there are some who take something from this and develop a profitable strategy around
The basic premise.

And my thoughts are also the same as you.

Bit lame.
Takes about 15 min

But each to their own--it's not easy.

 

[sval62]

The exercise has shown all the components I wanted to show PAV
And now you.
I don't have the time or inclination to devote to a live trading exercise
In which I try to maximize profit.You can see clearly here that with such a small portfolio I'm struggling to update and add new prospects.

My thoughts are the same as SKC.

So I will now cease to update this exercise as it has for me----served it purpose.
I hope there are some who take something from this and develop a profitable strategy around
The basic premise.

And so ends T/A thread No 653 , with no ending.

 

[fiftyeight]

Thanks to PAV and Tech for the time they have put in to this thread.

I am sure I will be using this thread as a reference resource for a long time to come.

Cheers

 

[Trembling Hand]

I am sure I will be using this thread as a reference resource for a long time to come.

It would be interesting to hear what, as a newbie, you think you found most valuable and what you hope to emulate?

 

[Joe Blow]

Let's keep this thread constructive please. I don't wish to see any personal attacks or attempts to derail the discussion.

I, for one, would like to see it continue. Whether that is now, or at a later date, is up to the thread participants.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Let's keep this thread constructive please. I don't wish to see any personal attacks or attempts to derail the discussion.

I, for one, would like to see it continue. Whether that is now, or at a later date, is up to the thread participants.

If that was directed at me for my comment to fiftyeight I don't know why!? I was generally interested in what he took from the thread.

 

[Joe Blow]

If that was directed at me for my comment to fiftyeight I don't know why!? I was generally interested in what he took from the thread.

No, it was just a general remark directed at nobody in particular. I just felt that this thread had started to take a slightly negative turn, and I wanted to remind everyone to please keep it constructive for the sake of the discussion.