- Joined
- 8 January 2015
- Posts
- 273
- Reactions
- 5
Yes, I noticed that. Thin skin is the sign of the amateur.
It's funny how everyone takes these discussions as personal attacks.
Be open minded, learn both TA and FA and use both/either, whatever works for you.
Yes, I noticed that. Thin skin is the sign of the amateur.
It's funny how everyone takes these discussions as personal attacks.
Be open minded, learn both TA and FA and use both/either, whatever works for you.
I agree hamli.
I do get a bit wound up (in case nobody noticed) when I see comments and criticisms of TA by people who don't understand it.
In 17 years of trading/investing I have tried just about everything in existence. Fundamental worked for a while and I thought I had found my saviour until I started to see the lag, inaccuracies and flaws in the info I was dealing with.
Throw in a down market (approx 17% of the market life) and you can easily undo a years value in a couple of months.
Look at the investors who held TLS all the way down from around $9, all you heard was "it's a bargain at these prices" and "dividend yield is going up" which in itself highlights the fact that basic calculations are misunderstood.
I found that the entry into stocks often differed very little between TA and FA even though FA usually lagged quite a bit. The big difference was the protection of investment value, ie, when it starts to turn down then TA doesn't give back profits.
There are stocks that I have held for quite a while that may have sound FA, two of my longest holds, SYD for close to a year now and BAP since Feb '15 but I bought and monitor from a TA perspective.
Some might see this as investing, call it what you want but to me as long as they are creating value before I get an exit signal I will hold, TA in and TA out.
Quite often I get the usual, "if you had bought and held CBA" etc, sounds great, I might be holding the next CBA in one of my current holdings, TA will alert me if that is not the case.
Recently I had an investor mate say he was going to buy CBA because "at these prices" etc.
I pulled out my old excel spreadsheet from the days when FA was going to be my saviour, put in some rubbery figures and came up with a valuation of nearly $84 (that I wouldn't trust), he was happy as a pig in poop just on that news, seems to be all he needed !!!!
When people suddenly pop up and start canning TA then up goes the red flag, I think I have put in enough hard yards on both methods to 'highlight' that they have just decided to pick a side and they will apply the fruit bat approach to the other side, ie if you can't eat it then you just **** on it so no one else can eat it.
There is however an advantage in applying TA to fundamentally sound stocks though in most cases you are already holding before the FA theory kicks in and the fundies arrive to support your head start.
Anyway, after all that, tomorrow morning I am taking my wife to Europe and the the USA for a month, business class courtesy of TA
Tootle pip kiddies
I don't see how it is possible to assign a 'return' on TA vs a 'return' on FA.
Enjoy the trip, Boggo.
You and your wife deserved it!
... oh, and come back happy and relaxed. We need people like you who can talk sense.
Are you serious?
You look at the amount of equity that you have (whether you're a TA or an FA guy) at the beginning of the period under equiry and then you look at the amount of equity that you have at the end of the period - adding or subtracting from the return for the period any realised or unrealised gains or losses on positions still open at the end of the period.
Is that so hard?
... You can't make a blanket assumption and assume a person using TA will have the same result as another person using TA. They have their own methods.
... And what's to say that they are 'purists' and totally ignore the FA/TA.
Come on. We are not trying to determine the number of angels sitting on a pinhead here.
If you have two fund managers - one adopting an FA approach and the other adopting a TA approach - and you give them each the same amount of starting capital to manage over a 3, 5 or 10 year period, are you telling me that the percentage return that each manager is able to generate on that starting capital at the end of each period does not tell you which manager had the better performance?
Boggo and tech/a seem pretty pure TA guys to me.
It will tell me who the better/luckier manager at that point in time for the market condition was. It will tell me little about whether TA is better than FA.
Luck?
Luck might explain a difference between two levels of performance across 1 year. It might even explain a difference between two levels of performance across 2 years. But if you are saying that it would explain a difference between two levels of performance across 5 years, let alone, 10 years, then you are deluding yourself.
If that is all you got from it, then I rather talk to a rock.
Come on. We are not trying to determine the number of angels sitting on a pinhead here.
If you have two fund managers - one adopting an FA approach and the other adopting a TA approach - and you give them each the same amount of starting capital to manage over a 3, 5 or 10 year period, are you telling me that the percentage return that each manager is able to generate on that starting capital at the end of each period does not tell you which manager had the better performance?
Boggo and tech/a seem pretty pure TA guys to me.
That's because you can't accept that where an investor across a 5 to 10 year period earns meaningfully higher returns than another investor having the same amount of capital to manage, that says nothing about the investment styles both adopt.
That is a demonstrably foolish claim to make.
Great post. Brings some reality to the argument. This is also something that I think Craft has spoken of in his journey through from TA to FA.Anyhow, getting back on topic
Except there's no figures out there to compare - technical funds don't exist because slippage kills it when trading any large sum of money. It also depends on how narrow you define TA. Bunch of futs trading shops (and individuals) making bank, and they're definitely not FA traders.
Do you have any estimate on what levels such a strategy may run into significant headwinds in terms of slippage?I'll use our very own Peter2's momentum book as an example. Its pure TA and he's done very well but that doesnt mean what he's doing now is possible with $100m under management.
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?