- Joined
- 21 April 2005
- Posts
- 3,922
- Reactions
- 5
Hi Snake
I cringe when ever I hear the word prediction used. The psychology attached to such a position is significant and quite damaging over the longer term I feel. There’s a lot of buy in mental capital if using that term. I have never heard successful full time traders use the term.
Focus
C'mon Snake...you and I both know one example is not statistically significant enough to prove that there was any luck involved!
All forms of analysis be it:-
-Techinal Analysis
-Quantative Analysis
-Fundemental Analysis
Have Flaws.
TA may present you with possibilities and probabilities from which to trade from circumstances in the market. There are no certainties. The analyst that does not make mistakes does not exist and long term success in the markets demads recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities
On occassions the market exhibits "order" both in price and time and if all the patterns are falling together at the time then "predictions" sometimes work out for a while. But then there is a question of "CONSISTENCY". Can this be done consistantly, the answer is no. You take the trade, if it works fine, if not then you move onto the next trade as Frank D said.
I prefer see various forms of TA be it in both price and time used as means of presenting the evidence to quantify a probability of a move.
It's all about making sure that as many cards are stacked in your favour before taling a trade, and even then there is no certainty.
You cannot predict with TA
THOSE THAT LIVE BY THE CRYSTAL BALL WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE TO LEARN HOW TO EAT GLASS'
Cheers
I didn't imply, nor, infer there was any statistical evidence. Just mentioned the LUCK factor as being something worthy of consideration, without using those exact words.
Semantics. You could substitute predict for hope/pray, etc. and equally say that that is a useful exercise, you just can not guarantee the outcome. Prediction without tangible (above statistically random) accuracy won't do us much good.
Prediction is prophecy, so anticipation is anticipation of what?
Which is why I posted the thread, just for discussion.Firstly let me say what great reading this thread has provided. It certainly is a thought provoking subject.
You are about to realise that TA really doesn't mean much.I am just a beginner to trading, so my view on TA and trading may lack the refinement that comes with experience.
How does TA and FA marry up so TA confirms?My take on TA depends largely on the timeframe one wishes to trade in. The fundamentals are indeed important in the long run. In the long run TA is means to confirm one's long term view.
In the short run, TA can provide a good indication of near future price action. As I see it (and my view here may be basic and incorrect, so feel free to correct me), there are many traders who place reliance on methods of TA and once buy/sell "signals" are generated from TA, many of these traders open positions based on their analysis. If the tecniques of analysis are uniform, you end up with many traders getting a similar signal. There may of course be some traders who get opposing signals, but a majority of traders will have the same signal.
This will in turn lead to an increase in demand or supply in the short run which will cause the price to move in the predicted direction. These traders, if using uniform methods of TA will end up with similar price targets and the price will continue to move in the predicted direction, with more and more traders who either missed the original signal or are waiting for more confirmation jumping on board along the way to the target.
So if this is the case, then using TA to predict future price movements in the short term can be very useful and accurate. While we can not see the future, we can predict with reasonable accuracy how price action may play out.
I know, sorry Snake...I was being utterly facetiousIMO, agree 110%, until you reach proven track record territory, never underestimate luck, and even then, never underestimate luck...and accept it graciously when it comes
As I see it (and my view here may be basic and incorrect, so feel free to correct me), there are many traders who place reliance on methods of TA and once buy/sell "signals" are generated from TA, many of these traders open positions based on their analysis.
And this is what makes the `signal` the `signal`.(overbought or oversold basically)
p.s. not every time otherwise everyone would be tech. heads.
p.p.s. you`re with it trishan
Which is why I posted the thread, just for discussion.
You are about to realise that TA really doesn't mean much.
How does TA and FA marry up so TA confirms?
I think you are saying TA can be used for prediction. Correct me if I am wrong.
Cheers...
What would you like me to talk about?Lots of statements Snake not a lot of discussion from you.
Not the case. It comes from a philosophical standpoint which is not realised by the neophyte loser. TA does HELP the trader. I shall stick to English. And it is TO WHOM!Expand? To who--how can you speak for someone else? To you maybe this is so.
Once again the rehashed argument and accusations. I was actually interested in what the poster had to say. Unlike some I was not searching for answers, if you catch my drift. Discussion I was trying to have.This statement confirms my comment above. You cant find a way of applying Tech analysis profitably.Doesnt mean everyone else is in the same boat.
Rhetorical question. Not literal. Difference there is.See my post above.
Experienced exponents of Tech analysis get sick of taking part in these threads.The continual F/A V T/A arguement grows tedious.
Of course Technical AND Fundamental analysis work.
Of course they can be combined.
Of course BOTH can be profitable.
I've proven it.
Radge has 4 technical methods traded live on "The Chartist" ALL in some state of profit.
Stevo has great profit on his blog.
Young Trader has made some great fundamental calls.
Wavepicker shows often technical confirmation.
I'll say it again.
Its APPLICATION of whatever analysis you choose which is all important.
Its NOT the analysis which will determine profit.
Can technical analysis be seen as predictive.
Of course it can.
Analysis as Radge put so well Technical,Fundamental,Predictive,whatever------- is a matter of Prove,Disprove,prove,disprove.
A mistake people make is expecting too much. Neural networks and genetic algorithms do not create solutions. They help you quickly find out whether an idea you have about the characteristics of some trading vehicle is valid.
Tech you don't have to take part you know. (see red part)
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?