TA for prediction

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Some people have the skill to chart-read by forward-thinking of likely events happening because those same patterns have occurred in the past. This is the theory of all forward looking methodologies. Some people like to call it predictions. But they are simply modeling patterns of likely events that might or might not take place.

These type of traders will use this skill, but will only trade when the alignments occur and subject themselves to trade when it conforms with the view. Elliot-wave is an example of forward-looking methods. So is mine. Whether the trade works or not, they simple move on to the next.

There are others like ASX gorilla who can’t, or don’t want to forward-think in probabilities using modeling patterns. They believe it can’t be done and believe that no one else can. They don’t understand it so they dismiss it. These traders rely on systems and price-based indicators to trade, and don’t give a rats-**** about trying to predict the market. When the trade comes along they take it regardless of any view, prediction or perception others make. Whether the trade works or not, they simply move on the next.

Both methods are the same: - Whether the trade works or not, they simply move to the next.

Regardless of whether you can or can’t, it makes no difference whether you use forward-looking models or not. The only thing that matters is making money by subjecting yourself to the markets, whichever method you use.

But in reality, every ‘systematic’ trade placed is literally ‘predicting’ the market, because of the belief that the past will repeat into the future. If not you wouldn’t place the trade.

I don’t think there are to many dart throwers amongst us.

BTW…fundamentals and fundamental analysis is the only thing that will make you wealthy in the market.

Technical analysis is at its best; only good for lifestyle choices and achieving an income. Sadly most traders using technical analysis would be lucky to be making more money than if they were working for someone else.

Just my view

Frank Dilernia

Thanks for your contribution Frank.

 

[tech/a]

Prediction is prophecy, so anticipation is anticipation of what?

Been trading this using VSA and Elliott over on Radges site.
Hit the price target to the cent as you'll see.

Prediction----well I said thats the target.
Anticipation----Thats all you can do.

Makes good reading and trading,although I didnt trade the complete move.
The premise for the trade palyed out to the cent though.

Makes for some reading.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Been trading this using VSA and Elliott over on Radges site.
Hit the price target to the cent as you'll see.
Prediction----well I said thats the target.
Anticipation----Thats all you can do.
Makes good reading and trading,although I didnt trade the complete move.
The premise for the trade palyed out to the cent though.

Makes for some reading.

So you anticipated the prophecy would hold, not to mention the "LUCK" factor.

 

[nizar]

Been trading this using VSA and Elliott over on Radges site.
Hit the price target to the cent as you'll see.

Prediction----well I said thats the target.
Anticipation----Thats all you can do.

Makes good reading and trading,although I didnt trade the complete move.
The premise for the trade palyed out to the cent though.

Makes for some reading.

Good effort soN!

 

[motorway]

Prediction is prophecy, so anticipation is anticipation of what?

Anticipation stays close to what is happening now.

It is recognizing structure and order
from which a line of least resistance
is defined

Think

Roger Federer on the tennis court
supreme anticipation
The ability to read the structure
of the entire play in the moment
and the ability , skills to profit from that anticipation

ie To make winning shots

Prediction focuses on a non existent illusion
called the future

Think of an amateur tennis player
Not playing what is in front of Him

Trying to impose a preconceived ( prediction ! )
play at the wrong time

The line of least resistance
defines itself . It only needs to be observed

Time = a process , any unfolding process can be used as a clock.

Process has attributes of
evolution and revolution..............

Structure and Process are the ONE thing
seen as two aspects


Because We deal with unbounded context
Because We are not a God

Prediction is very dangerous and removes Us from what is happening.

It is trying to use feedforward... The Problem is that the future is not a reality We can use like that.
Reality is only Now...

With Feedback We can identify a line of least resistance that is present now

When it comes to endeavors of speculation and investment
Water does and can flow seemingly up hill for longer than We might think...

Too much money is lost and too much money is missed
for two simple reasons: One, trying to predict the
future, and two, fearing the future.

Apologise for the quote

But there is much much wisdom in those words



motorway

 

[Wysiwyg]

Turning prediction into reality is a matter of convincing/persuading other people that the prediction will happen.That is what professionals do and there is nothing more persuasive to realizing a prediction than money.

 

[IFocus]

Hi Snake

I cringe when ever I hear the word prediction used. The psychology attached to such a position is significant and quite damaging over the longer term I feel. There’s a lot of buy in mental capital if using that term. I have never heard successful full time traders use the term.

To me TA is purely a method based on probability after testing that proves a method of anticipating market moves with the ability to maintain small loses verses larger profits anything eles is noise.

Focus

 

[rub92me]

Actually we can predict, but the achievement of the prediction is what we cannot GUARANTEE.

What predictive tools do you refer to?

Semantics. You could substitute predict for hope/pray, etc. and equally say that that is a useful exercise, you just can not guarantee the outcome. Prediction without tangible (above statistically random) accuracy won't do us much good.

 

[rub92me]

So W.D Gann was a lier and he wasted his whole life learning to predict markets accurately.

If I was Wayne I would call that a disingenuous straw man argument!

 

[wayneL]

If I was Wayne I would call that a disingenuous straw man argument!

No you wouldn't, because it's not really a straw man argument.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

If I was Wayne I would call that a disingenuous straw man argument!

What the hell is a straw man?

 

[wayneL]

What the hell is a straw man?

It's a logical fallacy, one of many used by folks when debating.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man_argument

 

[>Apocalypto<]

It's a logical fallacy, one of many used by folks when debating.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man_argument

I hardly think that my reply was a straw man. It's a damn good point to RUB2me Gann did predict and alot of of his predictions came true.

I wanted to see Rub2me support his claims about people trying to predict markets are wasting there time. Gann is a example of a person that could do it. Magdoran is another. Bill Mclaren another example

 

[explod]

It is very entertaining observing the different approaches to investing. It reminds me of my era of earlier life when I was a serious aeromodeler. My specialty was areobatics. It too was a socialogical smorgasboard. There were those that had a focus of buidling them, another would be the gadgets, lots of meters on his flying box etc, others worried about the rules, others were frequency nuts (all radio controlled) other just socialising and having a few whiskies out the back. And others who could not fly well, thought they could and provided spectacular crashes sometimes behind the crowds.

Investing is really on the ballance of probabilities, it is a subjective science and no one way is neccessarily better than others. IMHO

Gann suceeded because he had measured all the past events and knew the probabilites. But he also followed current events, what sort of weather for wheat, supply, demand etc., it is a science of experience and knowledge and the longer you are in it the better you will get.

Buffet is the same in the sense that he has the experience and knows how to measure a company before he will make a deal and I suspect he must take into account some of the Gann things like cycles, demand etc.

The new and modern trader goes for the gadgets, the computer predictors etc. etc., but in the final analysis the gadgets merely try to measure those things that the experienced investor already has within his head. I hear some say they could not be bothered with going to the trouble of fundamental analysis. Well if I am going to deal with my hard earned I think I have to be bothered with every angle I can find. I learn something from everyone that posts and that is the reason why I hang around and stir etc., it is rewarding and not just entertainment

 

[rub92me]

I hardly think that my reply was a straw man. It's a damn good point to RUB2me Gann did predict and alot of of his predictions came true.

I wanted to see Rub2me support his claims about people trying to predict markets are wasting there[sic] time. Gann is a example of a person that could do it. Magdoran is another. Bill Mclaren another example

Your quote was:

So W.D Gann was a lier[sic] and he wasted his whole life learning to predict markets accurately.

How is that a damn good point?? I may have a different opinion to W.D. Gann, however that doesn't mean that I'm calling him a liar.
Wasting their time in the sense that in my opinion more money can be made in the application of an edge rather than trying to correctly predict the future. Each to their own.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Some people have the skill to chart-read by forward-thinking of likely events happening because those same patterns have occurred in the past. This is the theory of all forward looking methodologies. Some people like to call it predictions. But they are simply modeling patterns of likely events that might or might not take place.

Key statement. I prefer the term expectation. Note that I did not say expectancy.

1. the act or the state of expecting: to wait in expectation.
2. the act or state of looking forward or anticipating.
3. an expectant mental attitude: a high pitch of expectation.
4. something expected; a thing looked forward to.

I bet (or should I say, I expect) calling it predicting makes selling something easier than calling it 'better guessing'.

1. to state, tell about, or make known in advance, especially on the basis of special knowledge.

 

[theasxgorilla]

This is close for me but I dont' think the macro economic is required. I like a trading Average as an indicator of overal sentiment but I like a basic fundamental big picture.

In the context of your example about oil and OSH that is macro-economic analysis in my view. Coupled with your trend analysis for trying to anticipate when it's best to climb aboard, it sounds like we're very much on the same page. Whether you're subscribing to peak oil theory, looking at POO charts nearing all-time-highs, or counting current production levels and anticipating short falls over the northern hemsiphere winter (plus other factors and/or some combination there of) it's macro-economic analysis by my definition. Fundamental analysis would be looking at the company reports of OSH and determining whether the company is being run well enough to take advantage of the macroeconomic forces in play. I know nothing about running oil companies so can't bring such a skill to bear on this company.

 

[theasxgorilla]

So you anticipated the prophecy would hold, not to mention the "LUCK" factor.

C'mon Snake...you and I both know one example is not statistically significant enough to prove that there was any luck involved!

 

[wavepicker]

All forms of analysis be it:-

-Techinal Analysis
-Quantative Analysis
-Fundemental Analysis

Have Flaws.

TA may present you with possibilities and probabilities from which to trade from circumstances in the market. There are no certainties. The analyst that does not make mistakes does not exist and long term success in the markets demads recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities

On occassions the market exhibits "order" both in price and time and if all the patterns are falling together at the time then "predictions" sometimes work out for a while. But then there is a question of "CONSISTENCY". Can this be done consistantly, the answer is no. You take the trade, if it works fine, if not then you move onto the next trade as Frank D said.

I prefer see various forms of TA be it in both price and time used as means of presenting the evidence to quantify a probability of a move.

It's all about making sure that as many cards are stacked in your favour before taling a trade, and even then there is no certainty.

You cannot predict with TA

THOSE THAT LIVE BY THE CRYSTAL BALL WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE TO LEARN HOW TO EAT GLASS'

Cheers

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Anticipation stays close to what is happening now.

It is recognizing structure and order
from which a line of least resistance
is defined

Think

Roger Federer on the tennis court
supreme anticipation
The ability to read the structure
of the entire play in the moment
and the ability , skills to profit from that anticipation

ie To make winning shots

Prediction focuses on a non existent illusion
called the future

Think of an amateur tennis player
Not playing what is in front of Him

Trying to impose a preconceived ( prediction ! )
play at the wrong time

The line of least resistance
defines itself . It only needs to be observed

Time = a process , any unfolding process can be used as a clock.

Process has attributes of
evolution and revolution..............

Structure and Process are the ONE thing
seen as two aspects


Because We deal with unbounded context
Because We are not a God

Prediction is very dangerous and removes Us from what is happening.

It is trying to use feedforward... The Problem is that the future is not a reality We can use like that.
Reality is only Now...

With Feedback We can identify a line of least resistance that is present now

When it comes to endeavors of speculation and investment
Water does and can flow seemingly up hill for longer than We might think...
Apologise for the quote

But there is much much wisdom in those words
motorway

Thanks for the post Motorway.
Regards
Snake