System for the casino??? (baccarat)

[Timmy]

Do any of you guys have girlfriends or do you get you kicks from talking about which way a flipped coin will land all day LOL

Have nominations for ASF "Post of the Year, 2009" opened yet?
LOL

 

[skc]

Markets are about the sentiment of all the players (psychological) and momentum. One lead sheep goes through the gate the others follow.

Gambling is about luck, I do play roulette with some success because I chart the dealers and look for a wheel bias. Been at it for many years and it is a tough one because time and patience is required, may as well work for it in a job. But I like it as a sport and have my set limits.

If you really want to look at all the fancy systems there is a US website called Gamblers Glen. But beware it too is out to catch the mugs and many new systems come from the industry , works for awhile sucks you in then it turns on you.

To play as I do there is a lot of work and best done by two, one charting the other making the plays. My partner is now in the Navy so looking for someone that may be interested once a fortnight. If anyone lives in Melbourne and is interested we could meet over a coffee sometime and discuss the idea. I do not take it too serious, onl;y gopt into it cause the missus just loves those flamin pockies.

Cheers explod

Just picturing a scenario in my head...

I had coffee with some guy on an internet forum, and decided to go gambling with him. He suggested that we should start small, and that he would just gamble his own money while I learn the ropes. The first few times, I charted while he played the roulette. We did quite well and he shared the winnings with me everytime. A month later, he said we should gamble larger amounts since we are doing so well. I agreed, and drawn down my home loan to go for a big night out. I handed him the money when we met the casino and started the usual routine. I went to the table and started charting while he went and change for chips... That was the last I saw of him.

Note - just thought I would share my imagination only. It has nothing to do with whether explod's suggestion is genuine.

 

[skc]

Do any of you guys have girlfriends or do you get you kicks from talking about which way a flipped coin will land all day LOL

Suppose some of us have wives. That might partially explain it.

 

[Mr J]

Do any of you guys have girlfriends or do you get you kicks from talking about which way a flipped coin will land all day LOL

The fact that we can waste time on this is something to boast about :. Girls don't get home until 6-7pm, we've got to do something with our day.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Gambling is about luck, I do play roulette with some success because I chart the dealers and look for a wheel bias. Been at it for many years and it is a tough one because time and patience is required, may as well work for it in a job. But I like it as a sport and have my set limits.

No comments anyone.

 

[Naked shorts]

Gambling is about luck, I do play roulette with some success because I chart the dealers and look for a wheel bias. Been at it for many years and it is a tough one because time and patience is required, may as well work for it in a job. But I like it as a sport and have my set limits.

If a roulette wheel gave a sufficient bias to be profitable, it wouldn't be on the floor for very long. Do you think the casino is just going to let some dude clean them out? The casino knows the house edge of their games and if it significantly deviates from what they expect, they are going to investigate, and make it right again.

You are being fooled by randomness.

 

[explod]

If a roulette wheel gave a sufficient bias to be profitable, it wouldn't be on the floor for very long. Do you think the casino is just going to let some dude clean them out? The casino knows the house edge of their games and if it significantly deviates from what they expect, they are going to investigate, and make it right again.

You are being fooled by randomness.

What an ignorant comment. I have been around roulette tables for 20 years and on top of that was tutored by a family member who was a croupier in Europe for 40 years. I did not let on a great deal about my playing and do not intend to. If you know anything about physics, mechanical wheels and dealer bias then perhaps you may understand that randomness has nothing to do with professional play.

There are many pros., keeping a low profile who do very well. However it is a hard game requiring huge patience and skill to the point of boredom and when you do well the house is quick to change things, but in between you can make money.

Tell me your philosophy/ie. qualifiy you statement on randomness and I may listen to your version.

 

[Naked shorts]

May I suggest you take up study on chaos theory to understand that the idea of dealer bias is a dead end. It asserts that the initial conditions of a particular system greatly affect the final outcome (imagine placing a pencil on its end, a nanometer difference in orientation at the start, causes a big difference to what happens to the pencil).

A very slight difference in the way the croupier turns the wheel or rolls the ball makes a huge difference to the outcome.

Any dealer bias went out the window when they introduced low profile roulette wheels.

What an ignorant comment. I have been around roulette tables for 20 years and on top of that was tutored by a family member who was a croupier in Europe for 40 years.

I object to your suggestion that my comment is ignorant. You, with all your experience, supported my argument with this line.

and when you do well the house is quick to change things

Isn't that the same thing I said with this comment?

if (the house edge) significantly deviates from what they expect, they are going to investigate, and make it right again.

The same comment you called ignorant, you are agreeing with?!


What I mean by randomness... try this little experiment. Flip a coin 1000times. It will almost definitely land on one side more often. Does this mean that the coin is bias to that side? No. Its just randomness.

But if you believe that "luck" is a factor, by all means go for it....after all, a casino couldn't run without a misinformed public feeding it.

 

[beamstas]

Poker is -ev atm
Just lost half my b/r

Both times Flopping 2 pair with Ace+King and Ace+10
Both times someone comes over me with p7's & '5's hitting their set on the flop and shoving over my raise on the flop

Im so tilted right now.

 

[beamstas]

Then to top it off just walked pocket aces in the big blind
Could my day get any worse?

 

[Wagyu]

ok can someone pick this pathetic system apart, if you can even call it a system.

One of my mates think you can beat the house at the casino in Baccarat whereby you keep doubling up your losses until the pendulum swings your way and you win a hand.

Basically.... the banker (house) charges you 5% for everytime you double-up.

For example.

- You bet $100
- You lose, so you have the option to lose the $100 or lose nothing and double it to $200.... you keep doubling until eventually you win.!!! yipee!

give me something smart to say so i can go tell my mate he's got rocks in his head I did tell him if you were to do this with stocks you'll be called stupid!!, the probablility of him winning a hand is so random that he can go for 10 games without a win!! , the drawdown on his account or should i say chips will be ridiculous!

SPEC,

there is 1 system I recommend for beginners to casinos in regards to baccarat,
find a winning player and bet with him, or find a losing player and bet against him.
If you find a run of player or banker get on it, don't bet the other way just because you think its time for a loss. There is nothing better than riding a run of banker all the way down the scorecard, pressing by a unit at each hand.

Furthermore never double up a loss, you will be guaranteed a short stay at the casino if you do.

Also never bet the table minimum every hand, you will lose regardless of the outcome of the hand due to house edge. You must vary your betting to "feel of the game" if a table is hot.

Remember a loss is a loss, take your medicine, suck it up you are after all gambling.

 

[explod]

May I suggest you take up study on chaos theory to understand that the idea of dealer bias is a dead end. It asserts that the initial conditions of a particular system greatly affect the final outcome (imagine placing a pencil on its end, a nanometer difference in orientation at the start, causes a big difference to what happens to the pencil).

A very slight difference in the way the croupier turns the wheel or rolls the ball makes a huge difference to the outcome.

Any dealer bias went out the window when they introduced low profile roulette wheels.



I object to your suggestion that my comment is ignorant. You, with all your experience, supported my argument with this line.

Isn't that the same thing I said with this comment?

The same comment you called ignorant, you are agreeing with?!


What I mean by randomness... try this little experiment. Flip a coin 1000times. It will almost definitely land on one side more often. Does this mean that the coin is bias to that side? No. Its just randomness.

But if you believe that "luck" is a factor, by all means go for it....after all, a casino couldn't run without a misinformed public feeding it.

My comment was out of order and I apologise.

However roulette is anything but random, to explain it properly requires more space than on this thread. I will check the old threads or create one specifically for roulette this evening where I will address the isssues raised properly and start specifically with your post herein. I feel there will be many others interested.

explod

 

[roysolder]

well i,ll look forward to learning about roulette exxplod so hope you do post tonight or some stage.kml doing nicely btw

 

[jersey10]

Poker is -ev atm
Just lost half my b/r

Both times Flopping 2 pair with Ace+King and Ace+10
Both times someone comes over me with p7's & '5's hitting their set on the flop and shoving over my raise on the flop

Im so tilted right now.

I would be staying on this table - easy money for you... eventually

 

[Mr J]

Could my day get any worse?

Yes .

SPEC,

there is 1 system I recommend for beginners to casinos in regards to baccarat,
find a winning player and bet with him, or find a losing player and bet against him.
If you find a run of player or banker get on it, don't bet the other way just because you think its time for a loss. There is nothing better than riding a run of banker all the way down the scorecard, pressing by a unit at each hand.

Furthermore never double up a loss, you will be guaranteed a short stay at the casino if you do.

Also never bet the table minimum every hand, you will lose regardless of the outcome of the hand due to house edge. You must vary your betting to "feel of the game" if a table is hot.

Remember a loss is a loss, take your medicine, suck it up you are after all gambling.

Find a punter on a hot run . Hot or not, he would be throwing his money away. Doubling up will certainly not guarantee a short stay, as variance can be wild. Doubling up only increases the EV spent per hand, but in practise variance will render it insignificant.

As for gambling, we are all doing that anyway. Buying a house, trading, investing etc all fall under the proper definition of gambling, and it could be argued that everything we do is a gamble.

 

[jersey10]

Mr J

I would be interested in where you think professional poker players get their edge. I noticed you said somewhere else you played online poker for a time. Is it realistic to believe you can achieve a sufficient edge to play poker for a living? I believe that the real edge in poker comes from an ability to read other people - something that is more difficult (yet definitely still possible) online.

 

[beamstas]

Mr J

I would be interested in where you think professional poker players get their edge. I noticed you said somewhere else you played online poker for a time. Is it realistic to believe you can achieve a sufficient edge to play poker for a living? I believe that the real edge in poker comes from an ability to read other people - something that is more difficult (yet definitely still possible) online.

My cousin plays poker for a living
It's possible and there are many ways to gain an edge

Also many tells online, ie; time it takes someone to make a decision, how many chips they buy in to a table with,

Poker isn't about cards at all. If it was there wouldn't be an edge

 

[Wagyu]

My cousin plays poker for a living
It's possible and there are many ways to gain an edge

Also many tells online, ie; time it takes someone to make a decision, how many chips they buy in to a table with,

Poker isn't about cards at all. If it was there wouldn't be an edge

Beamstas, I have heard that online poker houses skew their cards to generous hands and therefore can take a larger "rake" due to the fact that you have many players betting large on strong hands. I am not a poker player at all but it is just what I have heard. Thought I might share. (I might be stating the bleedin' obvious?)

 

[Mr J]

Mr J

I would be interested in where you think professional poker players get their edge. I noticed you said somewhere else you played online poker for a time. Is it realistic to believe you can achieve a sufficient edge to play poker for a living? I believe that the real edge in poker comes from an ability to read other people - something that is more difficult (yet definitely still possible) online.

Edges will vary from player to player, and from game to game. For example, someone who 10 tables low limit games will play robotically and just rely on putting people on general ranges, and playing good hands decently. Someone who plays 1-2 heads up matches at a time will require much more attention to the opponent and will aim to out-think the opponent. It all comes down to mathematics though, getting a good price for your own actions and making the opponent pay for theirs.

Also many tells online, ie; time it takes someone to make a decision, how many chips they buy in to a table with,

Those can be tells, but most will be gained from analysing betting patterns. And yes, poker is not about the cards, it's about the people.

Beamstas, I have heard that online poker houses skew their cards to generous hands and therefore can take a larger "rake" due to the fact that you have many players betting large on strong hands.

It didn't have any merit when I was playing, and was a typical statement from the fish (what poker players call the typical punter). I've seen unbelievable things between blackjack, poker and sportsbetting, but nothing that can't be attributed to variance. Most people just have no concept of it (variance).

 

[jersey10]

Those can be tells, but most will be gained from analysing betting patterns. And yes, poker is not about the cards, it's about the people.

Very true.

Do you still play online or live games?