I'm with Beamstas. You have the rake to overcome. If you're going to suggest that is still a game at which one can consistently profit, then I'll throw in card counting, roulette prediction, video poker basic strategy, and sharpshooting for craps. Most games can be beaten, providing the rules are reasonable.
So_Cynical
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Of course u can win at the casino...done so many many times, u just cant do it all
the time and with any predictability...after all its gambling.
Ive seen 14 heads in a row on a 2up table, great if your betting with the run.
If you walk around for a while and look at roulette table scores it is not uncommon at all to see nearly the whole scoreboard filled with 1 color. Once I saw a table where the whole scoreboard was red and everybody was doubling tripling quadripling and so on on black and they all busted except 1 or 2 that went with the trend and kept betting small but consistantly on red. When black finally came the table was almost empty lol
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Coin tosses don't "trend"
If you were to chart the coin tosses I bet you would find trends that are able to be 'traded' like stock trends.
Just because it's random doesn't mean there won't be trends. I did see some info & charts on this some time ago but I will have no hope of finding it now.
Trembling Hand
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Yep have a look at this random generator to create charts. Will put all the deluded Technical analysis fools back a step or two. (or not a religion is hard to argue against
)Random coin toss excel chart generator
here are two chart from coin tosses,
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That made my day TH
skc
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This has already been said, but you still pay the rake, and you're typical casino punter is no more likely to profit at this game than any other.
TH said:
TH, there's a difference between the results of a coinflip, and how the market will treat those results. The results may be random, but markets are not.
yep --- the more punters at the table the higher probability of losing
yep again --- i assume TH was licking the icing off the wooden spoon and his tongue was caught a little in his cheek
-- a 150 sample on a coin toss is about the equivalent of 20 minutes of tick data on the eur/usd -- during a lunch break !!if ya joined about a thousand of those 150 tosses in a row and put the range in perspective the chart would probably resemble Bondi beach during a black nor-easter
Trembling Hand
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interesting though that whether or not you accept that market moves are random you can still see that rather than "guess" right what you need is the ability to ride your luck or you correct guess.
I don't think so. If I believed the moves were random, I would also believe that there is no edge to be gained and that timing won't do many any good. If it's random, then it is unpredictable. However, if I thought it wasn't random, I would believe that "guessing" right and timing are critical.
I don't know how anyone could suggest that moves are random, as every trade is made with a reason. The fact that we may not know the reason doesn't make it any more random. Surely those who believe the market is random don't believe it is random in the longterm. To those people I would say the longterm is a product of many connected shorterms, and therefore if the longterm is not random, the shorterm cannot be random either.
Trembling Hand
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Jesus!!
The trouble with being contrary is that you end up jumping at shadows just to argue.
see Cartmans post for full explanation
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I don't know if the market is random or not
There is simply too much information being processed with each move of the market that it appears random
One person simply can't take in that much data, so to me, it may as well be random
Not that being random or not makes any difference at all to trading profitably. If it was somehow proved or disproved that it is random/not random right now you profitabilty wouldn't change
There is simply too much information being processed with each move of the market that it appears random
One person simply can't take in that much data, so to me, it may as well be random
Not that being random or not makes any difference at all to trading profitably. If it was somehow proved or disproved that it is random/not random right now you profitabilty wouldn't change
explod
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I don't know if the market is random or not
There is simply too much information being processed with each move of the market that it appears random
One person simply can't take in that much data, so to me, it may as well be random
Not that being random or not makes any difference at all to trading profitably. If it was somehow proved or disproved that it is random/not random right now you profitabilty wouldn't change
Markets are about the sentiment of all the players (psychological) and momentum. One lead sheep goes through the gate the others follow.
Gambling is about luck, I do play roulette with some success because I chart the dealers and look for a wheel bias. Been at it for many years and it is a tough one because time and patience is required, may as well work for it in a job. But I like it as a sport and have my set limits.
If you really want to look at all the fancy systems there is a US website called Gamblers Glen. But beware it too is out to catch the mugs and many new systems come from the industry , works for awhile sucks you in then it turns on you.
To play as I do there is a lot of work and best done by two, one charting the other making the plays. My partner is now in the Navy so looking for someone that may be interested once a fortnight. If anyone lives in Melbourne and is interested we could meet over a coffee sometime and discuss the idea. I do not take it too serious, onl;y gopt into it cause the missus just loves those flamin pockies.
Cheers explod
So_Cynical
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Yes they do...seen it many, many times...that's where patience can pay.
heads tails heads tails heads tails etc etc is a trend too.
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Do any of you guys have girlfriends or do you get you kicks from talking about which way a flipped coin will land all day LOL
LOL 
