SYD - Sydney Airport
- Thread starter el_ninj0
- Start date
-
- Tags
- syd sydney airport
Re: Macquarie Airports
We wont see the results of that until the end of financial year report though. MAP is definetely great value at the moment. But is there any better options to put your money in?, i'd say so. However, long term this will be a great investment.
chicken said:MAP..owns most of it.......
We wont see the results of that until the end of financial year report though. MAP is definetely great value at the moment. But is there any better options to put your money in?, i'd say so. However, long term this will be a great investment.
- Joined
- 21 December 2004
- Posts
- 674
- Reactions
- 1
Re: Macquarie Airports
Seems like analysts have down graded the expected returns to be half of this year's. Revenue must be based on the amount of people travelling through the airports because they are predicting less people travelling next year. Must be because of the impact of expected rising oil prices.
Anyway, I bought 20 contracts of the June $3.00 call options @ $345 per contract for a total of $7,900. My reasoning behind this is that I only need the share price to go up to $3.45 to get my money back. ie it needs to get by 20 cents on by June 30 which is realistic. If it goes to $4, then profits would be $10k or if I dare dream, $5, then profit becomes 30k. Risk is bearable compared to the reward. The other reasons are (2) every year, analysts mark the value of the company revenue down, and each year its out performed analyst's expectation by a huge amount. (3) It is the northern hemisphere's summer so demand for oil will be less (heating oil etc). (4) None of the analysts have marked it down to sell. 2 say buy, 4 say hold. (5) And finally, on the chart, it looks like it has bottomed out.
Seems like analysts have down graded the expected returns to be half of this year's. Revenue must be based on the amount of people travelling through the airports because they are predicting less people travelling next year. Must be because of the impact of expected rising oil prices.
Anyway, I bought 20 contracts of the June $3.00 call options @ $345 per contract for a total of $7,900. My reasoning behind this is that I only need the share price to go up to $3.45 to get my money back. ie it needs to get by 20 cents on by June 30 which is realistic. If it goes to $4, then profits would be $10k or if I dare dream, $5, then profit becomes 30k. Risk is bearable compared to the reward. The other reasons are (2) every year, analysts mark the value of the company revenue down, and each year its out performed analyst's expectation by a huge amount. (3) It is the northern hemisphere's summer so demand for oil will be less (heating oil etc). (4) None of the analysts have marked it down to sell. 2 say buy, 4 say hold. (5) And finally, on the chart, it looks like it has bottomed out.
Re: Macquarie Airports
I dont think its going to reach $5 by June, but i'd definetely think $4 is possible. Im thinking of getting some kind of margin loan to invest a large sum in MAP, as they are virtually assured to go up to atleast $4 in the next 6 months. I wouldn't put MAP past going to $8 this year though.
DTM said:Seems like analysts have down graded the expected returns to be half of this year's. Revenue must be based on the amount of people travelling through the airports because they are predicting less people travelling next year. Must be because of the impact of expected rising oil prices.
Anyway, I bought 20 contracts of the June $3.00 call options @ $345 per contract for a total of $7,900. My reasoning behind this is that I only need the share price to go up to $3.45 to get my money back. ie it needs to get by 20 cents on by June 30 which is realistic. If it goes to $4, then profits would be $10k or if I dare dream, $5, then profit becomes 30k. Risk is bearable compared to the reward. The other reasons are (2) every year, analysts mark the value of the company revenue down, and each year its out performed analyst's expectation by a huge amount. (3) It is the northern hemisphere's summer so demand for oil will be less (heating oil etc). (4) None of the analysts have marked it down to sell. 2 say buy, 4 say hold. (5) And finally, on the chart, it looks like it has bottomed out.
I dont think its going to reach $5 by June, but i'd definetely think $4 is possible. Im thinking of getting some kind of margin loan to invest a large sum in MAP, as they are virtually assured to go up to atleast $4 in the next 6 months. I wouldn't put MAP past going to $8 this year though.
- Joined
- 12 September 2004
- Posts
- 1,714
- Reactions
- 1
Re: Macquarie Airports
I would disagree with the undervalued analysis, if you research MAP a little more thouroughly than just looking at the eps figures and breakdown their revenue you will soon discover that the management fees they have paid to MBL so far this year exceed their actual cash revenue - the majority of their revenue is in fact audited re-valuations of assets they currently hold. As many companies include depreciation of assets in their financials, MAP seem to include the appreciation.
Never let it be said that the millionaires factory (MBL) weren't a bunch of clever cookies
chicken said:I bought into this company 2 days ago...why...check their report..assets have increased ,to over 4 billion $$$ their earnings to 73c EPS...their PE is 4.5....Auckland airport shares were last year $3...now trading about $8...so this group much larger plus good management plus pays DIVIDENT..plus I say it will go MUCH higher because its a joke a company with PE4.5.... UNDERVALUED by the market..also reading SMH...they are saying that 19billion $ is going to hit the market next months..so fundmanagers will be looking at stocks such as MAP..I am on board and very comfortable with it..what is it worth $5 to $10.....you be the judge my target is at least $6 as even a PE of 9 is low....
I would disagree with the undervalued analysis, if you research MAP a little more thouroughly than just looking at the eps figures and breakdown their revenue you will soon discover that the management fees they have paid to MBL so far this year exceed their actual cash revenue - the majority of their revenue is in fact audited re-valuations of assets they currently hold. As many companies include depreciation of assets in their financials, MAP seem to include the appreciation.
Never let it be said that the millionaires factory (MBL) weren't a bunch of clever cookies
- Joined
- 21 December 2004
- Posts
- 674
- Reactions
- 1
Re: Macquarie Airports
Personally I think that MAP has had its day and from the weekly charts, I can
only see one direction, and that's down. It also looks like its completed wave 5 in the elliot wave so I expect only down hill from here on in.
Just my 2 bob's worth and not meant as advice.
I don't hold June call options on them any more as I've sold out.
Personally I think that MAP has had its day and from the weekly charts, I can
only see one direction, and that's down. It also looks like its completed wave 5 in the elliot wave so I expect only down hill from here on in.
Just my 2 bob's worth and not meant as advice.
I don't hold June call options on them any more as I've sold out.
- Joined
- 21 April 2005
- Posts
- 224
- Reactions
- 0
Re: Macquarie Airports
I agree DTM. Whilst visually the graph is moving upward, I'm not convinced that there is much more room for it to move. I suspect it is close to its peak, making it hard to profit from it in a trade. Further, MAP is 100% UNFRANKED, which given the fact that it is owned by MBL is a bit outrageous. Huntley's has an avoid recommendation on it, for the same reason I avoided it. the fundamentals aren't as solid as I would like them. I generally like my fundamental analysis and technical analysis to blend, kind of a ying and yang of investing. I don't get that with MAP. The same applies to their communications group MCG. Huntleys's have an avoid on this and recommend that you buy shares in the bank that own these: ie. MBL. That would make more sense. Of course I could be wrong and this is merely my view.
DTM said:Personally I think that MAP has had its day and from the weekly charts, I can
only see one direction, and that's down. It also looks like its completed wave 5 in the elliot wave so I expect only down hill from here on in.
Just my 2 bob's worth and not meant as advice.
I don't hold June call options on them any more as I've sold out.
I agree DTM. Whilst visually the graph is moving upward, I'm not convinced that there is much more room for it to move. I suspect it is close to its peak, making it hard to profit from it in a trade. Further, MAP is 100% UNFRANKED, which given the fact that it is owned by MBL is a bit outrageous. Huntley's has an avoid recommendation on it, for the same reason I avoided it. the fundamentals aren't as solid as I would like them. I generally like my fundamental analysis and technical analysis to blend, kind of a ying and yang of investing. I don't get that with MAP. The same applies to their communications group MCG. Huntleys's have an avoid on this and recommend that you buy shares in the bank that own these: ie. MBL. That would make more sense. Of course I could be wrong and this is merely my view.
Re: Macquarie Airports
Well, I have to agree with the crazy chicken on this one I think. Wild statement I know, but I think its the right decision at this time. It very much depends on the rest of the market this stock does, and therefore, as a whole is hard to predict in today climate or fear and "bushism" crazyness.
However my reasons for this stock being one of the few I would place my money in at this time is that it can only be dependent on MBL for so long, and then the tides will turn. It is a very successful company so far, has great management, with only one exceptional circumstance to sugest otherwise(namely 3 months ago). I believe as a short term investment, this is a 6 on the scale of 1-10, 1 being an immediate sell and 10 being immediate buy. So, I think it rates at about a cautious buy.
That said, as a long term investment, this is a great option. If your looking for somewhere to stick your money so it will go up and up, and are willing to leave it for a few years even a decade, this is the place to be. It will only continue to reep the benefits of its already owned airports, and as air traffic continues to increase(and it will), they will become more independent of MBL. Thus increasing their profit as a whole.
This is just my speculation on the matter, if anyone can give me any reasons to sugest otherwise, I am happy to acknowledge that.
Well, I have to agree with the crazy chicken on this one I think. Wild statement I know, but I think its the right decision at this time. It very much depends on the rest of the market this stock does, and therefore, as a whole is hard to predict in today climate or fear and "bushism" crazyness.
However my reasons for this stock being one of the few I would place my money in at this time is that it can only be dependent on MBL for so long, and then the tides will turn. It is a very successful company so far, has great management, with only one exceptional circumstance to sugest otherwise(namely 3 months ago). I believe as a short term investment, this is a 6 on the scale of 1-10, 1 being an immediate sell and 10 being immediate buy. So, I think it rates at about a cautious buy.
That said, as a long term investment, this is a great option. If your looking for somewhere to stick your money so it will go up and up, and are willing to leave it for a few years even a decade, this is the place to be. It will only continue to reep the benefits of its already owned airports, and as air traffic continues to increase(and it will), they will become more independent of MBL. Thus increasing their profit as a whole.
This is just my speculation on the matter, if anyone can give me any reasons to sugest otherwise, I am happy to acknowledge that.
- Joined
- 21 April 2005
- Posts
- 224
- Reactions
- 0
Re: Macquarie Airports
MBL set out to establish MAP and Macquarie Infrastructure and Macquarie Communications Group to give investors, especially those in their managed funds a place to park money. They are not likely to become independent of MBL, since it is a core part of their merchant banking strategy.
MBL set out to establish MAP and Macquarie Infrastructure and Macquarie Communications Group to give investors, especially those in their managed funds a place to park money. They are not likely to become independent of MBL, since it is a core part of their merchant banking strategy.
Similar threads
