SYD - Sydney Airport

[nulla nulla]

Many thanks Joe for merging the information from the old "MAP" thread to the new trading ticker "SYD".

 

[mikeg]

I have heard news of another airport opening in Sydney, which would have a big impact on the price of SYD.

At this stage it is only been muted, with no time frame given.

 

[nulla nulla]

It is an old chestnut that gets dragged out from time to time. NSW state government admit it would be a logistics/infrastructure nightmare and will not happen. No-one wants one in their area, it would be a vote loser.

 

[nulla nulla]

I am pleased to be able to advise that IncredibleCharts.Com has also updated the "SYD" chart to include the previous data of "MAP" and "MAPDA".

Copy chart as at 11:00am today attached.



syd has tracked sideways and down a little since the capital return, however allowing for the recent capital return of $0.80 and distribution of $0.10, syd is in very good shape (imo). With the expectation of continuing to pay an anual distribution of $0.21 per unit (from earnings) this equates to a yield of 7.8% on the present price of $2.68. The present price of $2.68 also represents a discount to nta of approximately 20% (adjusted for the capital return).

 

[nulla nulla]

Since the last post, syd spiked up to $2.80 then plunged back to $2.65 following the release of December traffic figures for Sydney Airport, combined with a broker rating amendment from "Hold" to "Neutral" because of "recent price activity?" (must have wanted to generate some brokerages).



Once again syd is back at $2.68 with discounts to nta and yield better than bank rates. Hopefully (for holders, me included) this will prove to be a support level

 

[Joel1st]

bought 2000 @ 2.62, it'll be interesting to see how they progress in the next few weeks.

 

[notting]

I'm long it and short AIX, happy so far

 

[nulla nulla]

Another factor for the recent tightening in the share price could be an exodus of foreign ownership. Recent announcement regarding foreign ownership by "syd" was that the level had dropped to arround 35% from the usual 39%.

It is possible foreign owners are taking advantage of the high Aud$ against the U.S $ and the Euro. The better exchange rate combined with the recent price highs have probably put "syd" in the category of "reduce holdings, lock in some profits and come back in when the price and the aud$ retrace a little".

Closing on $2.62 after tapping $2.61, the share price may get worse before it gets better. Notwithstanding, imo, the share price is still at a significant discount to nta and the ongoing dividend of $0.21pa provides an excellent and reliable yield. I expect the price to recover and improve, reducing the discount to nta.

Disclaimer: I may be biased as I have a small holding in "syd" as a cornerstone of my investment portfolio and have traded in and out of "map/syd" many times over the last three (3) years.

 

[nulla nulla]

From the end of May 2011 SYD (formerly MAP) started a run up that saw the share price lift from $2.94 to a peak of $3.55 on 5 December 2011. At this point SYD went ex entitlement (to the $0.80 cent per unit capital return) and then dropped to $2.76. In the next few days SYD rallied to $2.85 (equivilent to $3.65 pre cap return) however since then SYD has tracked sideways and steadily down.



The long term chart is not encouraging. If the pre December 2011 was adjusted for the capital return it would be even more apparent that SYD has come off a peak. Hopefully the recent low of $2.54 is the nadir. However this only equates to $3.34 (pre capital return) and the channel from September 2010 to May 2011 shows SYD traded in a range (adjusted) between $2.10 and $2.35.

With the off-loading of the international airports and consolidation of ownership of Sydney Airport, SYD now has all its eggs in one basket. Negative movement in traffic figures for Sydney Airport can no longer be countered by positive figures for the International Airports. It would be interesting to know the impact of the collapse of Air Australia on SYD.

Meanwhile, there haven't been any negative announcements. The drop in share price means SYD has an even bigger discount to NTA and a better yield on investment with the ongoing annual div of $0.21.

I hold and will look to add if SYD gets any lower.

 

[notting]

Meanwhile, there haven't been any negative announcements. .

I bought a small amount yesterday, because I felt the recent weakness was due to an official report by some official body that Sydney 'definitely' needs another airport and that unless something is done about it quickly there is going to be a significant enough economic impact.
Obviously this could effect SYDs monopoly on massive car park fees etc. Hence the weakness in the share price. This would be short term as you'd imagine because there is still no where designated for the second airport and it will take a while to get planned let alone constructed.
How smart Lindsy Fox was buying Avalon, In Melbourne when Jetstar was born. However Tullamarine still manages to charge monopolistic car parking prices and has no train station! SYDs seems pretty well priced where it is for the moment IMHO.

 

[nulla nulla]

I bought a small amount yesterday, because I felt the recent weakness was due to an official report by some official body that Sydney 'definitely' needs another airport and that unless something is done about it quickly there is going to be a significant enough economic impact.
Obviously this could effect SYDs monopoly on massive car park fees etc. Hence the weakness in the share price. This would be short term as you'd imagine because there is still no where designated for the second airport and it will take a while to get planned let alone constructed.
How smart Lindsy Fox was buying Avalon, In Melbourne when Jetstar was born. However Tullamarine still manages to charge monopolistic car parking prices and has no train station! SYDs seems pretty well priced where it is for the moment IMHO.

The second airport for sydney is a vote winner for the noise effected suburbs and a vote looser for any of the suburbs where an airport might be proposed. Being a no-win situation it will never happen.

 

[nulla nulla]

Good to see a break out above the upper channel line. A long way to go to get back to the recent $2.85 highs. I will be watching to see what sort of trading paterns syd settles into now that they are back to one airport and have finalised the capital return.



syd is still generating a competitive yield and trading at a discount to nta. Any improved market optimism will likely see the syd share price improve as p/e multiples lift.

 

[nulla nulla]

SYD issued the annual report and the share price surged to new (recent & capital adjusted) highs. Bit of a surprise considering the share price fell on the release of the latest traffic figures.



Still holding the original SMSF parcel and waiting for another entry. DYOR

 

[nulla nulla]

As a matter of interest, I attach for anyone and everyones perusal a copy of the ten (10) year chart sourced from "IncredibleCharts.com" for syd. If I understand the history correctly, this share was introduced to the market by our good friends at Macquarie Bank in approx July/August 2002. It was set up as a $2.00 share (pay $1.00 up front and the other $1.00 in twelve months).
Surprisingly the liability for the second $1.00 remained with the original purchaser. It did not transfer if the original purchaser decided to jump ship and sell. Effectively anyone buying in that first 12 Months was buying a heavily discounted $2.00 share.
It originally opened arround the $1.38 in July/August 2002, fell to arround $0.80 in the next few months, then slowly climbed over the next five years to reach its pre gfc peak of $4.36 (interday) on 18/10/2007.




As history has shown, with the advent of the Global Financial Crisis map/syd dropped like a plane falling out of the sky from the October 2007 high of $4.36 to the March 2009 low of $1.24. Then it began a slow but consistant recovery to $3.59 in December 2011.

In December 2011, the current management did a capital return to shareholders of $0.80 per share. Today syd closed at $3.13 after hitting $3.15 (interday) yesterday and today. If you add back the capital return, syd has recovered to $3.93 (just $0.43 short of its previous all time high). If you were to compare map/syd with the XAO you would see that map/syd has outperformed the xao (and probably every other share in the xao) since March 2009.

It is realy hard for me to beleive that syd can continue to climb at this rate. Yes, it is trading at a discount to nta, it does pay a div of $0.22c p.a. and the div is mostly funded from earnings and not borrowings. However as the share price rises, the yield rate drops and the price earnings ratio climbs. At some point it has to plateau unless of course earnings continue to climb and the dividends rise accordingly. Some of the recent rise could be the influx of investors seeking the security of annual return rather than growth. It is possible when this settles down, the share price could retrace to more rational levels. Then again i could be totally wrong and the price will keep rising. In the meantime, the volitility is our friend.

For now I continue to hold my SMSF Parcel purchased in 2002 and trade the swings when the tea leaves are right and the stars align. As always, d.y.o.r. & good luck.

 

[notting]

Some of the recent rise could be the influx of investors seeking the security of annual return rather than growth. .

Buy growth if you want to make a long fortune.

 

[nulla nulla]

Buy growth if you want to make a long fortune.

We are told that historical paterns are no guarantee of the future. Notwithstanding the returns on shares purchased in December 2002 at $0.86 (and held since) are:

Ex div Date	Pay Date	Div
23-Dec-02	19-Feb-03	0.090
24-Jun-03	18-Aug-03	0.050
23-Dec-03	18-Feb-04	0.030
24-Jun-04	18-Aug-04	0.040
23-Dec-04	18-Feb-05	0.080
24-Jun-05	18-Aug-05	0.110
22-Dec-05	20-Feb-06	0.090
26-Jun-06	18-Aug-06	0.130
21-Dec-06	20-Feb-07	0.120
25-Jun-07	20-Aug-07	0.130
21-Dec-07	19-Feb-08	0.180
24-Jun-08	19-Aug-08	0.130
23-Dec-08	19-Feb-09	0.140
24-Jun-09	19-Aug-09	0.130
23-Dec-09	18-Feb-10	0.080
24-Jun-10	18-Aug-10	0.110
29-Sep-10	21-Oct-10	0.125
23-Dec-10	17-Feb-11	0.100
24-Jun-11	18-Aug-11	0.110
22-Dec-11	16-Feb-12	0.100
25-Jun-12	16-Aug-12	0.110
		2.1850
19-Dec-11	Cap Return	0.80

And of course the capital gain From $0.06 (Purchase price $0.86 less Capital return $0.80) to todays close $3.13 = $3.07. It goes to show that sometimes it is worth buying and holding in the manner of Mr Buffet.

 

[nulla nulla]

Sydney Airport took a breather since the last post, dropping from the interday high of $3.22 on 1/8/12 to an interday low of $2.99 on 9/8/12. Since then, syd has resumed its' upward climb recovering to close at $3.15 on Friday 17/8/12.

Finishing on a high point for the day, with good closing volume, was a bit of a surprise given that through the day syd was struggling to make any impression on the sellers at $3.14. Seems some investors may be accumulating in the lead up to the results due out on 23/8/12, expecting a good result to further boost the share price.



Good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

There I was minding my own business, ready to take an entry if SYD dropped back to the $3.12 - $3.13. Tuesday and Wednesday SYD was testing lower lows ahead of the half yearly report due on Thursday and I was ready to get back on board. I thought the report on Thursday was okay, nothing to get excited about, the div would continue at $0.21pa and would be paid mostly out of income (mostly meaning they will top it up out of borrowings if they need to?).

Then this morning "The Australian" ran this article:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...t-sydney-airport/story-e6frg95x-1226456972662

SYD opened higher at $3.19 and rocketed up to $3.31 within 15 minutes of opening. Good volumes of turnover, however I reckon the shorters would have finished the day in front as the price retreated to close the day at $3.23. Still a good outcome for holders and fantastic for anyone selling into the spike. As always D.Y.O.R and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

Sydney Airport is still trading at a hefty discount to the nta of $3.55. The chart continues to climb but at some time you have to wonder how far it can go?



Did the Qantas Emirates tie up last week prompt a tightening or is it just another lull (profit taking) before the next jump?

 

[nulla nulla]

SYD fell through $3.17 (as far as $3.12) but appears to be rallying. Mind you it is hard to be confident in a reversal as todays figures were influence by the monthly options close outs. Not-with-standing it looks like $3.17 is currently a resistance level, although in fairness the lows have been getting higher. SYD could even break out above $3.17????



The traffic figures were very positive and the forecast for future flight plans etc was also positive. Good luck and d.y.o.r.