SVM - Sovereign Metals

[UMike]

@debtfree I think the only way I'm going to catch @UMike in the yearly comp is if there's a TO lobbed at either SVM by RIO or PDI by PRU in the next two months and then someone else wants in and there's a bidding war for either or preferrably both. Only two months for that dream to eventuate.

Or MSB could do it for you. down 13% for the week.

Thanks for the link.... Looks interesting, On the radar now

 

[Sean K]

A please explain, or RIO have just got enough to make a TO. They only need Blackrock's shares to do it.

 

[Sean K]

@debtfree (you're the only one else forced to look at my posts in this thread) unfortunately that prior sharp push to 80c stalled and it went into consolidation for 3 weeks. Almost back there. Would be nice to see a 1 in front of the price by Xmas. Will probably take a stooge broker for RIO buying up stock that they then give to RIO in a TO.

These guys are doing a lot of testing. It's test, test test, with no end in sight. Just dig the crap up and post it!

Hmm, maybe it's not the same as Fe.

 

[Sean K]

Broke an ATH yesterday, but just intraday. Hopefully that's someone linked to RIO topping up.

Really doesn't like to push through this 82-83c zone.

Apart from RIO finally taking over the next catalyst might be the MRE upgrade in early 25 where they'll put out an ore reserve to cover the first few years of mining.

The other thing may be more news out of China that they'll further restrict critical minerals such as titanium and graphite from export. That could be part of the inevitable political and financial moves that will follow their blockade and attack on Taiwan.

 

[wayneL]

Is this the company Fat Cu... errr, Fat Tail Research is spruiking, trying to spruik their newsletter?

Mrs forced me to listen to one of their spam vids on Facebook and is sure sounded like it.

 

[Sean K]

Is this the company Fat Cu... errr, Fat Tail Research is spruiking, trying to spruik their newsletter?

Mrs forced me to listen to one of their spam vids on Facebook and is sure sounded like it.

Dunno.

I'm surprised this is actually going OK. Other graphite and rare earth type things are in the dog house.

Maybe RIO are just propping it up.

 

[wayneL]

Dunno.

I'm surprised this is actually going OK. Other graphite and rare earth type things are in the dog house.

Maybe RIO are just propping it up.

It was interesting Sean, a very compelling case about the shortage of titanium to facilitate a number of modern necessary technologies. But every other titanium company I looked at seem to be in either a downtrend or in the doldrums, Sovereign being the only one being in some sort of an uptrend that I could find.

Of course I remain unconvinced to subscribe to their newsletter, or go balls deep in titanium in general.

Not holding, but will keep an eye on it

 

[Sean K]

Graphite is still in the toilet but rutile might be going OK for RIO to pull the trigger in 2025 and take it over for around a dollar.

Unless Malawi go rogue and start charging some back taxes, for no profits, or China nationalise resources in Africa, this is like death, taxes, and first years.

 

[Knobby22]

You can see the upward rising prices above.
This looks like an exciting company and the graphite seems great. Batteries are happening and are only going to get more important.
The resource appears large and a deal maker. Don't like that its in Malawi though.

 

[craigj]

Had this on my watchlist months ago and bought in September when the price crashed. Got lucky on my entry price. bought in purely for the RIO potential TO.

The charts look like it is heading to all time highs above 90c

 

[Dona Ferentes]

The charts look like it is heading to all time highs above 90c

but no, it was not to be...

today's capital announcement:
- OPTIMISED PFS COMPLETED WITH OVERSIGHT FROM SOVEREIGN-RIO TINTO TECHNICAL COMMITTEE
- LARGEST AND LOWEST-COST STRATEGIC CRITICAL MINERALS PRODUCER POTENTIAL REAFFIRMED
- SUPERIOR PROJECT DELIVERY, OPERATIONAL FLEXIBILITY, PERMITTING, ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL OUTCOMES

 

[frugal.rock]

Too many buzzwords in bold with weird colours. I'm distracted.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Too many buzzwords in bold with weird colours. I'm distracted.

bespoke

 

[Sean K]

On the surface of it, the first page looks impressive. No EBITA post tax because they can't be sure what the tax rate is going to be. Yikes.

Capex $1B Aussie, double yikes. I thought it was much less than that in the previous FS, but can't be sure.

Market Cap of under $500m, so if they get it funded from a magic money tree (RIO) it should eventually be worth a bit more if it's earning US$409M pa. NPV US$2.3b. Not sure if it'll ever catch up to that valuation.

Might not get anywhere until the graphite market sorts itself out. But, since it's a secondary product after the rulile, maybe it's not toooo much of an issue.

 

[craigj]

Been a good stock to short term trade this month has hit 80c Is bound in a nice little trading range for a few months

 

[Sean K]

Been accumulating this since Aug 22 and waiting patiently for over a year for this zone of resistance to be released. Maybe I should be thinking that the dips are just opportunities longer term. I'm guessing that it'll take RIO to make an offer for control of the company for it to break through, but with no other major holders except Sprott there's probably limited upside since they're now on the inside.

MRE update this quarter which will probably just add more to M&I so maybe not a catalyst.

In discussion with end-users which could be positive news.

DFS not till the end of the year which is when RIO probably has to make a decision, so maybe it's just more waiting..... zzzzzz

 

[Sean K]

Closing in on ATH daily close, but I fear that RIO's traders are in control of the price and want to keep it suppressed so they don't have to pay overs to take it out.

Had a good day on the back of this news, which I can only assume is good. I'm still working out the graphite market really. I just thought it went into pencils until lithium car batteries came along.

Now I know there's a 'refractory' market for graphite. I just thought it was a bad sign for gold miners to have 'refractory' ore. derrr.

 

[Sean K]

Kasiya's graphite is now suitable for pencils. What's next, good for the core of a nuclear reactor?

Conspiracy theorist Sean thought RIO were capping this at 82c, but he was wrong, again, as usual. Hopefully this useless TA crap is correct and the old resistance become support, but who knows.

 

[Knobby22]

Kasiya's graphite is now suitable for pencils. What's next, good for the core of a nuclear reactor?


View attachment 194129

Conspiracy theorist Sean thought RIO were capping this at 82c, but he was wrong, again, as usual. Hopefully this useless TA crap is correct and the old resistance become support, but who knows.


View attachment 194132

2B or not 2B pencil.
Keeps going up.

 

[Sean K]

2B or not 2B pencil.
Keeps going up.

3HB maybe?

I thought it was highly unlikely that this pushed through 83 cents ish.

Absolute dumb arse.