SVM - Sovereign Metals

[Sean K]

Looks like that 50c ish level was tested and found as support. Up 10% for no apparant reason. Hopefully this is a new trend.

 

[Sean K]

Heading for a please explain I reckon.

Maybe the price of titanium or graphite is doing something I'm not aware of.

 

[Sean K]

LOL

They'll probably come out with another ann in the next couple of days of something positive happening..

 

[Sean K]

Miniature mine on schedule.

Interesting process this. If it was gold or copper you build a plant and start digging.

Rutile and graphite is test, test, burp, test, fart, test.

 

[Sean K]

If I was shorter term trading this I probably would have taken some off the table at the ATH level of this nice big rounded bottom cup type thing. Now looks like a natural retreat to some support somewhere. Maybe as far as that breakout point across 50c ish ish.

 

[Sean K]

Hasn't quite got back to the new support zone but has bounced off the short MA. Hopefully a nice finish to the week.

Not sure what's been the driver since last October bottom apart from risk being gradually mitigated.

Holding until RIO take it over or just before first production.

 

[Sean K]

 

[Sean K]

Although this is chicken feed for RIO, the fact they've been on board, had their pants down in the data room and have been part of the development committee, they must be satisfied this could be a mine, one day.

Sprott Resource Finance behind the deal taking a 3% fee for making the coffee.

 

[Sean K]

Heading for a weekly ATH weekly close if we're lucky. RIO staying on board might have helped. Not sure if it'll break through here, around 70c seems to be bogey.

Haven't seen a Sprott report on this in a long time after the analyst team cut loose to form a separate entity. Rick Rule obviously still on board and ramping it every opportunity. Been in it for a long time so must be thinking about skimming some profits.

 

[bettamania]

Very nice picture

 

[Sean K]

Very nice picture

Even prettier now. Into free air, finally. But the rounded bottom shape is concluded. Not sure what happens next. I'm up about 90% on this so I should take some off the table but I'm feeling greedy. Bad idea. I might just hang around to see if that old resistance line firms as support.

MC about A$450 now but still way off the post tax NPV of US$1.6b. $50% of that will probably do me which is still double the current MC.

The next hurdle will be the Capex of US$600m which will put a hand break on value appreciation, unless RIO just take over.

 

[Sean K]

Only a week or so later and I'm much poorer for not having a brain, but the big cuppy thing is still in play I guess. The dirt free money was made accumulating around the 40c mark but no more free air above 70c. Maybe the 200 and 50d ma's will be some support going forward.

Still waiting for a RIO take over for around 50% of the post tax NPV on the PFS which is about US$800m = A$1.2b = 3 X current SP. Just a waiting game really.

 

[Sean K]

@debtfree I wonder how much more 'trial mining' these guys need to do before they commit to actually buying some bigger trucks and do the real thing?

One disappointing thing here is that they have been saying for a couple of years that this was going to be mined hydraulically, but now they're not sure. Were they lying? Probably. Can't trust a thing these mining companies say really. Getting a bit sick of the shenanigans going on with these people mining the market.

RIO has increased their stake to the point that they almost have to make an offer. Come on RIO! Do it! And pay way overs. A buck a share will do me.

 

[Sean K]

Waiting patiently for RIO to make a TO offer, or BHP to appear on the register and they fight for it. That's the only downer about RIO owning 19% of the stock. If they decide to buy another 10% and have to make an offer no one else can really join the fight and push this up towards it's NPV.

60c held up OK and back through the 50dma. I thought it might have even gone back down to 53 ish cents that RIO excised it's options at but that decision sent it on a run to 80. Doubled this year so not sure how much upside there really is from this range. Maybe back to 80c will do me.

 

[Sean K]

Not a great day to be bringing out good results. Will be lost in the rush to the door.

But, if the dust settles, this looks like very positive news on the graphite part of the deposit.

I'm still trying to work out if natural graphite is going to have any advantage over synthetic in an environment where it seems OEMs don't really care that much about global warming potential of resource production and just want the cheapest stuff on the market. If nickel is any example, no one seems to care.

 

[Sean K]

Bloody hell, what's going on here? I wasn't even watching this yesterday as my platform had conveniently taken it off my watchlist.

Got a please explain and they know nothing. This is not nothing.

 

[Sean K]

Hopefully this fixes up that very unusual blip on Tuesday.

 

[Sean K]

SVM naturally got a 'please explain' on 10 Sep and they naturally gave a SGT Schlitz.

I took a gamble and topped up when there was no explanation which has luckily worked out, so far. Still can't work out why the volume and drop. Stop losses, a rumour I couldn't find, ?? Bizaar.

Still a long way to get back to those highs in July. Maybe it ran ahead of itself on RIO rumours.

 

[Sean K]

Sovereign making a song and dance about giving a presentation. Good promotion I suppose.

Not sure why this is market sensitive, there's no new information in this that I can see.

Maybe they're intimating that they're going to get funding from the US.

Not sure why it matters, RIO can fund this with pocket change.

 

[Sean K]

@debtfree I think the only way I'm going to catch @UMike in the yearly comp is if there's a TO lobbed at either SVM by RIO or PDI by PRU in the next two months and then someone else wants in and there's a bidding war for either or preferrably both. Only two months for that dream to eventuate.