SUN - Suncorp Group

[vincent191]

Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

I wonder if the ANZ will be making a move? The share prices of SUN have taken a hammering and in my opinion it would start to look more & more attractive especially after the capital raising which will add to their cash stockpile.

Hmmm....I wonder if I should buy a few shares when it resumes trading and speculate on an impending bid from ANZ??

 

[Glen48]

Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

Are they an asset to any other business?
They must have a lot of exposure to all the Flooding in North Qld plus Brisbane and storms late last year they also have a share in RACQ which would be paying out on claims as well???????

 

[oldblue]

Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

I wonder if the ANZ will be making a move? The share prices of SUN have taken a hammering and in my opinion it would start to look more & more attractive especially after the capital raising which will add to their cash stockpile.

Hmmm....I wonder if I should buy a few shares when it resumes trading and speculate on an impending bid from ANZ??

It's unlikely that anyone would make a move while the capital raising is on - it would complicate things horribly and I would think that a predator would like to see the capital restored first. It's not as if anyone is in a strong enough position to substitute their own funds for what is being sought by SUN.
After that, who knows? I doubt that any of the majors would want to add the insurance to their businesses so either that would stay or another buyer would be lined up.
I would be looking for some strength in the SP once things stabilise, as a sign that someone is seriously interested.

 

[Ashsaege]

Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

I wonder if the ANZ will be making a move? The share prices of SUN have taken a hammering and in my opinion it would start to look more & more attractive especially after the capital raising which will add to their cash stockpile.

Hmmm....I wonder if I should buy a few shares when it resumes trading and speculate on an impending bid from ANZ??

I wouldn't be jumping on this one! Suncorp shares have been heading south for a long time now, and the CEO is jumping ship! SUN could very well end up being a dog... and for a lot of long term holders it is.

 

[TheAbyss]

Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

I wonder if the ANZ will be making a move? The share prices of SUN have taken a hammering and in my opinion it would start to look more & more attractive especially after the capital raising which will add to their cash stockpile.

Hmmm....I wonder if I should buy a few shares when it resumes trading and speculate on an impending bid from ANZ??

Are you serious? Why didn’t Suncorp get what they thought the banking business was worth last year? QBE, CBA and Westpac looked at their books last year and they ran for cover without even a token offer. Why, because it’s at the mercy of overseas money providers and Suncorp wanted the insurance arm to give them the cash to keep the bank operational. That was crap given the insurance arm were and are having their own issues.

All those thay stayed in hopeful of a good dividend are also now going to leave in droves. I hope my mother in law got out of Suncorp when i told her. This was always going to happen in my view. Dividends my ass!

Chairman John Story should have been flicked not Mulcahy after Story didn’t address these issues last year or do whatever it took to accommodate a buy out last year. Now they are forced into a $900 million capital raising at 35% discount to SP. The SP is going to be in the low $5 range and they have cut their dividend by 60%!

They are saying the capital raising is due to an unexpected increase in provisioning for bad debts in banking operation and the insurance business failing to deliver. Well doh! Sack Story, three months ago he said all was well and the bad debt was under control and it did not need new capital. He said $73 million when their bad debt is actually $355 million.

So in short, the insurance business is ****e, the bank is losing money, share holders are facing a major dilution at a 35% discount to the current share price which is already 45% down from a year ago and to put the cream on top, a 60% cut to the dividend.

If you are not out now it’s too late.

 

[vincent191]

Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

Thanks everybody for the insight. Looks like the ANZ's unsuccessful bid for SUN last year was a blessing in disguise, just like the BHP/RIO saga. Lucky they pulled out

But surely when SUN shares fall low enough it will make them an attractice target? There must be "some" value left eventually?

What will the SUN Directors tell their shareholders now? Three months ago it was ok and now it is a horror story. How the hell can they get it so wrong?

 

[oldblue]

Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

I assume that those were all rhetorical questions!


No answers here, but I agree it looks suspiciously like the wrong man's carrying the can.

 

[oldoz]

CEO Suncorp

Sun headline reads"Suncorp chief goes as bad news mounts" should read "Bad Suncorp Chief goes as bad news mounts", with 20million plus 1.3million shares he holds plus another 400,000 incentive shares.Its not bad after the company's value has fallen 12bill.from its peak. I wonder what Mr. Rudd thinks about that.Needles to say I hold stock waiting for somebody to make an offer.Oldoz

 

[So_Cynical]

Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

I wonder if the ANZ will be making a move? The share prices of SUN have taken a hammering and in my opinion it would start to look more & more attractive especially after the capital raising which will add to their cash stockpile.

Hmmm....I wonder if I should buy a few shares when it resumes trading and speculate on an impending bid from ANZ??

I'm thinking same...cept i doubt a credible bid will come from any one...the
insurance/banking business model is a good one...as the new CEO will prove.

 

[TheAbyss]

Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

Anything below $6 is uncharted territory so anyones guess where this will end up.

There will be a bounce at some stage as there always is (albeit sometimes very temporary) but at what price?

Capital raising at $4.50 so is that the bounce point or a bit higher due to the retail component of the cap raising?

There will be a profit opportunity at a point. My feeling is the low will be tomorrow as people sell today and margin calls come in overnight so maybe tomorrow lunch time is an entry for a day or three?

 

[Sean K]

Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

This is a very nice chart.



What's going on here? Looks like a US bank chart. Or, is it an insurance chart?

Is this turkey going to start gobbling again, or is she going to be carved up?

Any EW'er care to plot a potential bottom here? eeeek!

 

[nomore4s]

Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

Kennas the volume in the last few months is telling me SUN might be close to a bottom as there looks to be some strength appearing in that chart, want to see a base form now.

 

[nawshus]

Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

It's too quiet here. Come on SUN at least hit $7 by next week. Anyone with good knowledge about this stock please speak out and inform the uninformed.

 

[Muschu]

Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

It's too quiet here. Come on SUN at least hit $7 by next week. Anyone with good knowledge about this stock please speak out and inform the uninformed.

If the general market is heading south SUN may go with it. Of course I may be wrong as always.
Regards
Rick

 

[Sean K]

Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

It's too quiet here. Come on SUN at least hit $7 by next week. Anyone with good knowledge about this stock please speak out and inform the uninformed.

It hasn't changed too much from the charts above. Could be potentially poking through the upper limits of the down trend resistance, but that downtrend is pretty solid. $7.00 seems to be the mark, but it's at $6, so some way to go... Means it would be good if it did break up though it though. Watching that closely.

 

[So_Cynical]

Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

The 3 month chart looks much better than the 3 year one...and that goes for all
the financial's not just SUN....glass half full factors going forward.

Currently SUN is trading about 34% above the 52-wk Low ($4.42) and around 33%
above the capitol raising issue price of $4.50...if the Dividend holds at 40c annually
that would represent a return on the current SP ($6) of about 6.7% plus the franking
benefits.......All looks ok to me.

 

[ands]

Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

Does anyone think these merger talks between Suncorp and BOQ are actually going to eventuate into anything? I understand funding for BOQ has been a problem due to their lower credit rating, but aren't Suncorp in even more trouble (massive writedowns, bad debts, CEO leaving with big payout, SPP was completed at big discount etc.). Would BOQ be the one to buy Suncorp? I hold BOQ (posted here due to the lack of discussion under the BOQ thread).

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,25515707-14334,00.html
http://www.thesheet.com/nl06_news_selected.php?act=2&stream=1&selkey=8314&hlc=2&hlw=

 

[stoxclimber]

Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

Does anyone think these merger talks between Suncorp and BOQ are actually going to eventuate into anything? I understand funding for BOQ has been a problem due to their lower credit rating, but aren't Suncorp in even more trouble (massive writedowns, bad debts, CEO leaving with big payout, SPP was completed at big discount etc.). Would BOQ be the one to buy Suncorp? I hold BOQ (posted here due to the lack of discussion under the BOQ thread).

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,25515707-14334,00.html
http://www.thesheet.com/nl06_news_selected.php?act=2&stream=1&selkey=8314&hlc=2&hlw=

It's possible. Rationale for BOQ would be that in buying Suncorp they'd likely get upgraded to A, means they can issue government guaranteed at 100bp fee instead of 150bp fee, and in the future with the surplus of AAA paper out there the spreads for BBB+ are unlikely to contract to previous levels, so getting the A rating can only help.

Suncorp isn't doing great, but some of the reasons you listed there are a bit inaccurate - the raising was at a big discount but it was accompanied by a ~30% EPS downgrade, so you can't just look at the discount in itself. CEO left, but a lot of the media articles at the time suggested that it was because the institutions didn't want him in charge anymore, rather than him leaving of his own choice.

A move on Suncorp Banking by BoQ would likely spark interest from CBA & ANZ, potentially NAB, WBC would probably be unlikely. Bendigo would be another consideration as well.

BoQ's problem is essentially that the longer nothing happens with their business, the worse it gets, due to the funding difficulties. So Project Pathways needs to amount to something or result in BoQ being acquired, otherwise the business will probably continue to deteriorate.

 

[StockPiles]

Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

Anyone notice the re-branding ?

Suncorp Bank

The Bank thrown on the end has been added to all their signage etc etc ..

And a new TV Advert Campaign, setting up some kind of de-merging of the Insurance and Banking sides into more focussed business entities in their own right perhaps ?

There has been a lot of commentry about the perils of Banking and Insurance being mixed together ... With the Seperate Banking entity clearly defined, perhaps Suncorp shareholders have the potential to realise more from the banking division in a take over/ merge situation ??

Food for thought anyway ..

 

[Sean K]

Re: SUN - Suncorp-Metway

Chart looks interesting to me at the moment. Downtrend seems to have been halted, now going sideways, found some support, and coming up to some significant resistance again. If she gets through there may be the start of an upward more.