Stock Market Crash - End of the Bull!

[>Apocalypto<]

What is a full on crash?
1929?

I reckon a prolonged bearmarket/sideways market is much worse than a crash.....

But i guess in any conditions there are always stocks that outperform....

Totally agree with you Nizar,

Long term side ways markets with very tight ranges are a thing in my nightmares!

 

[wayneL]

I was just making a point reece...

Being....

I'm talking market wide, you're talking individual stock

 

[chops_a_must]

Being....

I'm talking market wide, you're talking individual stock

That P/E's can't/ shouldn't be the only method of valuation. Otherwise, companies would all trade at exactly the same P/E level.

In all time frames there will be undervalued and overvalued stocks, albeit in varying time frames they are harder to find.

What percentage of the market would have to be trading at these levels for you to go all in?

 

[wayneL]

That P/E's can't/ shouldn't be the only method of valuation. Otherwise, companies would all trade at exactly the same P/E level.

In all time frames there will be undervalued and overvalued stocks, albeit in varying time frames they are harder to find.

What percentage of the market would have to be trading at these levels for you to go all in?

Chops,

Yer dead right.

But often the reference is something like - "The SP500 is trading at p/e 20" or whatever, painting with a very broad brush. When this broad brush is painting below ten, then I will be looking for stuff to stash under the bed; no stops. Individual stocks will of course vary (as will other fundamentals of course).

Meanwhile, I'm happy to trade as I am doing.

 

[dhukka]

Very well said,

As I have posted before, value is only determined by what the market willing pay for it.

Speculation on value is very dangerous.

One of the worst and and most amateur mistakes you can make is equating price with value.

Price is what you pay. Value is what you get

Warren Buffet

 

[>Apocalypto<]

As I have posted before, value is only determined by what the market willing pay for it.

One of the worst and and most amateur mistakes you can make is equating price with value.

dhukka did I?

If did, that was not my meaning. I was warning people not to think they knew the value of anything before the market proved their thoughts right or wrong.

 

[Out Too Soon]

"Stock Market Crash - End of the Bull!", Panic, panic!!
We're still here, we're still over 6000, guess we'll have to put up with all the doom & gloom again soon when the market has it's May correction. Maybe people will be a little more cautious about there bear predictions this time though, do you think so?
Naaa!

 

[Buffettology]

"Stock Market Crash - End of the Bull!", Panic, panic!!
We're still here, we're still over 6000, guess we'll have to put up with all the doom & gloom again soon when the market has it's May correction. Maybe people will be a little more cautious about there bear predictions this time though, do you think so?
Naaa!

Definately good figures released. I am back into the market until the end of the year. Highly doubt we will see a rate rise next month. Though, the impact of last years rate rises is still largely to be seen in the upcoming indicators.

 

[Out Too Soon]

Definately good figures released. I am back into the market until the end of the year. Highly doubt we will see a rate rise next month. Though, the impact of last years rate rises is still largely to be seen in the upcoming indicators.

Doesn't matter how good the economy is Buffy, China is in bubble ready to pop territory again meaning a correction sometime in May! POP!
Only temp though, enjoy the ride.

 

[Kauri]

In The West Australian today....... yikes

<H2>Legs left in our bull run: Oliver

31st May 2007, 10:15 WST

Some market experts are betting the equities market will run stronger for longer, with the Australian sharemarket potentially doubling over the next 12 months.
AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said yesterday that the current fouryear bull market was both shorter in duration and smaller in magnitude than the average cyclical bull market since 1950. And it was steadier and more modest than the boom between 1982 and1987.
However, he said if the market were to mimic 1987 and start to rise exponentially it could more than double over a space of a year.
Hopefully history won’t repeat so precisely, Dr Oliver said.
But the point is, the bull market could still have a fair way to run in terms of magnitude and duration if past extremes are any guide.
Nomura Australia equity markets strategist Eric Betts said that if the sharemarket was well supported by earnings growth, it was likely to return between 10 and 20 per cent over the next 12 months.
From a bottom-up perspective the banks are in good health and looking at around 10 per cent growth over the next year and in the mining sector commodity prices are high and we are still seeing upgrades come through, he said.
You have big rounds of tax cuts coming through in the next fiscal year, which should sustain the consumer, and the global economy is OK.
But Mr Betts warned that the market still could see a 1987 bubble if investors pushed share prices higher in the expectation of more takeovers.
Bell Potter Securities director of research Peter Quinton said he expected the stockmarket to return 12 per cent in 2007, despite describing it as fairly valued. The S&P-ASX 200 is up 10 per cent since January.
TRACEY COOK

</H2>

 

[toothfairy]

I reckon the Australian market will crash when the number of members in Aussie Stock Forums doubles within 6 months. When we have everyone interested in it. Like in some countries when they say servants and taxi drivers are talking on mobile phones to their brokers all day. ( I don't want to discriminate any professions here so I won't give a local example)
Cheers.

 

[noirua]

Is it the end of the bull market? Probably it is, and it's time to look for stocks that manage to defy the bear market that is on us.

Today, the big miners slumped in London. Anglo American down 7.5%, Antofagasta down 11%, BHP Billiton down 7%, Rio Tinto down 8%, and Xstrata down 7%.

The FTSE is down 3.2% and the Dow has just reversed sharply to be down 138 points.

 

[Buffettology]

The sidelines is the best place for my cash at the moment!

Though day traders could make a lot with this volatility, though at the moment its nearly all a downward direction!

We finally saw the correction, now will it lead to a crash...........

 

[noirua]

As of posting, the Aussie Dollar continues to tank against the British Pound and Greenback, A$2.5499 and A$1.2904 respectively.

The UK FTSE 100 started up over 80 points but has just reversed to be 20 points down after the 4.1% fall yesterday.

Gold morning fix at $662.25

 

[barnz2k]

a few people have come out and said not to panic, and our economy is still strong etc. Is this enough to keep us running once the blood is mopped up and people walk the streets again? Can we continue the bull after such a hard hit?

 

[tech/a]

Totally agree with you Nizar,

Long term side ways markets with very tight ranges are a thing in my nightmares!

Hell just sell calls.

 

[Porper]

Hell just sell calls.

Trade the bounce, if that is what it is.We'll soon know, but highly suspect that it is.

The people with the skill will make the money on the next big leg down.

 

[noirua]

As of posting, the Aussie Dollar continues to tank against the British Pound and Greenback, A$2.5499 and A$1.2904 respectively.

The UK FTSE 100 started up over 80 points but has just reversed to be 20 points down after the 4.1% fall yesterday.

Gold morning fix at $662.25

After the rate rise there were the expected recoveries in the DOW and European indexes.
It is thought that the FED knows which Institutions are in trouble or near collapse. It seems they must have moved on some quite dire news.
Some Mortgage Banks are being talked about in the UK as to whether they have problems. Northern Rock is one of these.
Expect an announcement that some Aussie Institutions have problems with loans and a surprise interest rate reduction may follow. Many mining outfits need the Aussie back to around A$1.35 to the greenback, which may necessitate a reduction to follow the FED.

The Aussie Dollar recovered to A$2.5135 and A$1.2672 against the British Pound and Greenback. FTSE closed up 205.3 (3.5%) and the DOW closed up 233.3.

 

[numbercruncher]

Its starting to seem that massive debt/leverage etc is going to force central banks to keep low Interest high Inflation enviroments regardless of there official "policys".

 

[Flying Fish]

This whole scenario is crazy. If rates go down inflation up, what will this mean to average Joe?