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Start of August? Time for a Bounce Back?

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chennyleeeee

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Its the month of August soon, does the market seem its about to bounce back up again? Has the shares in the market exchanged hands enough times that hardly anyone is holding onto 2000% profits. Are all the profit takers back for more? Although there seems to be a bit of volatility at the time, it actually seems like alls about over soon. We might be seeing some blue sky? Any opinions?

CHEN
 
The bears were just doing warm up exercizes, the main game hasn't even started yet.

However they may just allow the bull a little rope..... :batman:
 
Well July was a negative month for the overall market :(

There is still alot of cash sitting on the sidelines, so who knows?

I still think the stronger fo longer view in the resources sector holds, however am willing to concede that factors such as inflation and as a result central bank policies on tightening of credit and general geo-political tensions will play on the mkts mind,


I have attached an image courtesy of on online column Nelson's Column, it gives the probabilities for stock market rises and falls based on past performance.
 

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Not anytime soon IMO...

Wars in the Middle East
Petrol prices sky high
Hence food is up (F&V up 60%)
Interest rate rises
IR laws
And last but not least... BANANAS UP 250%!!

All this creates a whole lot of uncertainty and short pockets.
 
if no one is buying bananas how is it affecting the inflation rate? :eek: can someone please explain that to me,please.
 
visual said:
if no one is buying bananas how is it affecting the inflation rate? :eek: can someone please explain that to me,please.
Click to expand...

That one slipped past them. They normally exclude anything that actually effects people budgets... they forgot about that damned cyclone :cautious:
 
visual said:
if no one is buying bananas how is it affecting the inflation rate? :eek: can someone please explain that to me,please.
Click to expand...

They are buying other fruits instead, hence the supply/demand problem.

Also note extreme drought conditions and extreme cold/frost has crippled many crops this year, again adding to the supply/demand equation
 
wayneL said:
That one slipped past them. They normally exclude anything that actually effects people budgets... they forgot about that damned cyclone :cautious:
Click to expand...

Wayne,again though how is it affecting the inflation rate?and why is the market reacting so badly seeing that bananas will soon be in normal supply and guessing selling at normal prices so negating the temporary effect that they`ve had thus far.
 
wayneL said:
The bears were just doing warm up exercizes, the main game hasn't even started yet.

However they may just allow the bull a little rope..... :batman:
Click to expand...

I've been short the past few weeks, unsuccessfully as it turns out, but I am amazed that the US especially has done so well with all the bad news with their economy supposedly in the Pooh Pooh.:) & the war which appears not to have any effect on the markets as yet.

I agree with Wayne in that we 'ain't seen nothing yet.

A certain Mr.Radge has an interesting spin on the markets tonight, and he is pretty damn good with his assessment of the markets.Of course if you want to hear for yourselves you need to join the Chartist.

I for one will be looking to be weighted to the short side heavily in the not to distant future if things go to plan.

Profits to be made because I don't think consolidation is an option. ;)
 
Inflation ultimately comes down to more money (including credit) chasing the same amount of goods and services. If both are growing (as they have been) then it is a case of the money supply growing faster than the consumption of goods and services. Either way, the value of money is diluted by increasing supply so you pay more to get exactly the same thing.

We've seen it with stocks. Pay a fortune for a dot.com that doesn't even have an acutal business. As for making a profit...

We've seen it with houses. Borrow 2 or 3 times as much money to buy exactly the SAME house. That's inflation at work big time.

We've seen it with hard commodities. The quality of crude oil is declining but the price is up 600%. More inflation. Likewise the rise in everything from coal to iron ore.

But there's still more money even with the increases in stock, house and hard commodity prices. It has to go somewhere - it seems that soft commodities such as wheat and sugar (and of course bananas) are next in line. Bananas this quarter, wheat (ie much of what you eat), corn and sugar just around the corner (IMO).

It's like having a big dam on a river. If it keeps raining then water keeps flowing into the dam. First you build up the level of water in storage. Once it's full you let it flow down the river - it HAS to go somewhere if it keeps raining. You have no choice but to let it out once the dam is full - NO choice.

How do you stop it? Turn the rain (incresing money supply) down to a rate that equals the rate you're using the water (growing the supply of goods and services) in order to keep the storage level (prices) constant or at least changing at only a modest rate.

Problem is, there's been a huge amount of rain that hasn't even flowed down the river and reached the dam yet - keep clear of the river banks downstream or be swept away in the inflaion flood once it hits.

As for the RBA, their river height gauge seems to be located immediately below the dam's spillway - it only says that it's been raining when it gets to the point of there already being a flood. :2twocents
 
Its been a contrarians or bargain hunters market for afew months now. They're the traders that buy at bargain prices and lock in profits fast. Keeps the market ranging or in consolidation. Their actions are a direct link to their mood, pessismistic and risk averse.

The trend traders or buy high sell higher set have probably gone fishing for the time being. However, a beginning of the month bounce is always on the cards even if it is shortlived.

Cheers
Happytrader
 
chennyleeeee said:
Its the month of August soon, does the market seem its about to bounce back up again? Has the shares in the market exchanged hands enough times that hardly anyone is holding onto 2000% profits. Are all the profit takers back for more? Although there seems to be a bit of volatility at the time, it actually seems like alls about over soon. We might be seeing some blue sky? Any opinions?

CHEN
Click to expand...

Hi Medium Term shoudl be up, supply hasnt caught up with demand yet for basemetals

but longer term may be different

thx

MS
 
I'm only going to be short for the near future. Don't want to be in cash during any large drops. Dow again sitting in 11200-11300. Has taken some big drops recently each time it's tested it.
 
YOUNG_TRADER said:
Well July was a negative month for the overall market :(
Click to expand...


How silly I am, Monday the 31st is the last trading day of july :eek:

So July has 1 more trading day to live up to its historical higher month 2 out of 3 times in the past,


There's a good chance it will happen, US Equities rallied strongly overnight,

Oil dropped to the $73 level (would like to see it at $68 personally)

As for basemetals, looks like there will be a strike at the worlds largest copper mine = :D for Cu Price, should take the other metals up with it

Also looks like Inco's bid for Falcon has failed with Xstrata poised to pounce
So will be interesting to see who goes after Inco, we know Phelps wants them and have put in a bid, but I wouldn't be suprised to see another major jumping in,


Monday should be a good day ;)
 

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