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SSR - SSR Mining
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Sean K
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Yikes! I think SSR will write this off. If significant cyanide gets into the Euphrates then they're toast.
"Eight employees have been detained" Bloody hell.
Sean K
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They've found one of their staff. No updates on what's going to happen to the mine. 220,000 ozpa is a lot to leave in the ground. I don't think the mine itself has been affected at all, so operations should be able to be restarted once they fix the TSF. Surely it can be. Turkey probably need the revenue from the taxes etc and they employ a lot of turks so they'll want it restarted? Maybe? No word on what happened to the staff who were 'detained' either. Maybe once they put some people in jail, fine the company and get compensation for those lost there'll be a refurbishment and restart timeline. Maybe 12 months?
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This shows how strong the gold rally is. Even this mangy, flea ridden, one-eyed, three legged dog is now 30% off its recent low.
Sean K
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A good comeback from the bottom. I only bought this because @finicky told me to based on BtL's analysis, or because they had some silver that I wanted exposure to. Now, a rotting steaming turd in the desert.
I'm not sure how they come back from this disaster. They need the government of Turkey, or whatever they call themselves now, to back them in some way. The mine is too important to the local community economically, even though they just killed a bunch of turks. Money will be the decider in the end, and this mine has a lot of it sitting there to be picked up. Long term? Turkey take control? Not sure. It's not Chile, but anything could happen.
My tip is 12 months reconstruction of the TSF, compensation paid, the mine is back in action and SSR share price back to pre-disaster.
Or, I'm in the toilet on this flea ridden, one eyed dog thanks to finicky.
(you know I'm joking finicky
)
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Sean K
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Still no real news on what their plan is with Copler since the 31 July statement in the 2nd Quarterly. They found all nine workers who got taken away with the sludge. Remediation was costed at $250-300m 'including legal contingencies'. Not sure how they don't know what caused the collapse of the pad yet. They've got over 700,000 ounces stockpiled for processing once it's back up and running.
Not sure how much value the market should be assigning to Copler but this was trading at over $30 at one stage. Surely it's not worth 2/3 of the price of the company. Especially when it looks like it's going to be back up and running at some stage and they're not going to be sued for 100s of millions. Maybe the market thinks it's a complete right off?
Still holding because it's not worth selling except for tax reasons, but it also might still be a long term play if they get it back operating with only the $300m bill. That seems to be more than factored into the SP - EV.
It's actually trading above it's 50 and 200d ma now and a golden cross is about to happen in the next week or so.
Not sure how much value the market should be assigning to Copler but this was trading at over $30 at one stage. Surely it's not worth 2/3 of the price of the company. Especially when it looks like it's going to be back up and running at some stage and they're not going to be sued for 100s of millions. Maybe the market thinks it's a complete right off?
Still holding because it's not worth selling except for tax reasons, but it also might still be a long term play if they get it back operating with only the $300m bill. That seems to be more than factored into the SP - EV.
It's actually trading above it's 50 and 200d ma now and a golden cross is about to happen in the next week or so.
Sean K
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@finicky that golden cross has occurred.
I think you know this better than me, so what do you think about a long term turnaround story for this?
What happens if they get Copler back up and running within their budget and they don't get sued by the families or government for the people lost in the accident. It should go back to somewhere close to pre-accident shouldn't it?
Currently, Mr Market has placed about $6 a share on Copler but that was before POG and POS ran away.
This was $25 at one point not long ago.
Maybe the market is factoring in some extra costs with the accident. Is that warranted?
I think you know this better than me, so what do you think about a long term turnaround story for this?
What happens if they get Copler back up and running within their budget and they don't get sued by the families or government for the people lost in the accident. It should go back to somewhere close to pre-accident shouldn't it?
Currently, Mr Market has placed about $6 a share on Copler but that was before POG and POS ran away.
This was $25 at one point not long ago.
Maybe the market is factoring in some extra costs with the accident. Is that warranted?
