SSR - SSR Mining

[finicky]

 

[finicky]

Volume for SSR CDIs on the ASX was 23,000 shares traded.
Volume overnight for the Nasdaq main listing was a one and a half year high, with a bullish engulfing candle and clear positive divergence of momentum. Price up 3%.

DAILY

 

[finicky]

Nice (?) discount on SSR today - around 6% @ 16.36
Almost no volume.
Nasdaq SSRM listing only down 1c @ US$11
Almost like its a currency arbitrage adjustment.
Their $11 USD = Our $16 AUD
Been tempted again.

Held

BtL's comment recently on a forum that I never visit when SSR was at 18.45. His sentiment was at buy. Its sort of a more analytical and intellectual expansion of @mullokintyre's early take*

"The main reason is that production for the next couple of years has been downgraded by 10-15%. Their growth ounces at Copler have effectively been deferred to 2026 because they are now planning on building a higher recovery grind/leach conventional processing circuit, whereas previously they were planning on using heap leaching. Grind/CIL has recovery >80% where heap leaching is ~60%. Obviously there is capex associated with building a grind/leach circuit that the market hadn't anticipated. They did say that the capex will however displace (push out) longer dated Copler growth projects (C2).

They are also saying they've had considerable growth in the reserve (originally 1.7Moz), which is driving the alternate processing route. I'm not sure if the market has factored that growth in the reserve. So maybe you get a reserve above 2Moz, and then you recover ~35% more gold out of it.

So the production downgrade at Copler is a 'good' one in the sense that it is increasing overall value (NPV) of the business. The market doesn't care for the longer term right now. The AISC will be higher because of the lower production.

In among that Copler news as also a deferral of some ounces at Marigold due to mine plan changes. Again this seems to be just driven by best value rather a loss of business value. Seabee production is also forecast to go lower as they aren't mining as much higher grade material. That should have been factored in by the market already.

The 2023 ounces are forecast to be at the lower end of guidance, which again should have been mostly factored in by the market already.

Overall the reaction here seems to be a little overdone. If it was just the 2023 earnings missing maybe the stock would be down 5-8%, but with the extra downgrade of the next few years you get the extra. Partly I think there was an expectation that they would go into a mode of harvesting some of the cashflow from Copler, and now the market just sees capex for the next few years with little growth in ounces, and higher cost."

*

 

[Sean K]

Nice (?) discount on SSR today - around 6% @ 16.36
Almost no volume.
Nasdaq SSRM listing only down 1c @ US$11
Almost like its a currency arbitrage adjustment.
Their $11 USD = Our $16 AUD
Been tempted again.

Held

BtL's comment recently on a forum that I never visit when SSR was at 18.45. His sentiment was at buy. Its sort of a more analytical and intellectual expansion of @mullokintyre's early take*

"The main reason is that production for the next couple of years has been downgraded by 10-15%. Their growth ounces at Copler have effectively been deferred to 2026 because they are now planning on building a higher recovery grind/leach conventional processing circuit, whereas previously they were planning on using heap leaching. Grind/CIL has recovery >80% where heap leaching is ~60%. Obviously there is capex associated with building a grind/leach circuit that the market hadn't anticipated. They did say that the capex will however displace (push out) longer dated Copler growth projects (C2).

They are also saying they've had considerable growth in the reserve (originally 1.7Moz), which is driving the alternate processing route. I'm not sure if the market has factored that growth in the reserve. So maybe you get a reserve above 2Moz, and then you recover ~35% more gold out of it.

So the production downgrade at Copler is a 'good' one in the sense that it is increasing overall value (NPV) of the business. The market doesn't care for the longer term right now. The AISC will be higher because of the lower production.

In among that Copler news as also a deferral of some ounces at Marigold due to mine plan changes. Again this seems to be just driven by best value rather a loss of business value. Seabee production is also forecast to go lower as they aren't mining as much higher grade material. That should have been factored in by the market already.

The 2023 ounces are forecast to be at the lower end of guidance, which again should have been mostly factored in by the market already.

Overall the reaction here seems to be a little overdone. If it was just the 2023 earnings missing maybe the stock would be down 5-8%, but with the extra downgrade of the next few years you get the extra. Partly I think there was an expectation that they would go into a mode of harvesting some of the cashflow from Copler, and now the market just sees capex for the next few years with little growth in ounces, and higher cost."

*
View attachment 167903

There's pancakes and eggs flying everywhere on this sorry, flea bitten, piece of crap. How do I sack the directors and management?

 

[mullokintyre]

BtL's comment recently on a forum that I never visit when SSR was at 18.45. His sentiment was at buy. Its sort of a more analytical and intellectual expansion of @mullokintyre's early take*

I am insulted beyond comprehension.
Mick

 

[peter2]

I agree with @Sean K it's a POC and I'm not referring to the price of copper. There's any number of gold producers who share prices are going up. Go with the momentum. reversals are for the gamblers.

 

[finicky]

Auspicious looking candle pair completed overnight for Nasdaq listed SSRM (our CDIs code SSR.AX)
Might offer nothing more than a short rally, if that, but you never know.
Never known what to call this candlestick pair pattern but it strikes me as more bullish than the 'bullish engulfing' or 'bullish in line' pair patterns. 'Bullish kicking' seems the closest reference, although strictly I suspect that needs a gap between the two ranges? An exception using the term is illustrated below.
Obviously past optimism on my part for SSR.AX has been misplaced, sitting on an $18k paper loss, and I must accept the rampant scepticism.

Held

DAILY

 

[finicky]

Tacked on 250 shares at market @ 14.89 - should have waited.
Chart is showing some short term signs of improvement and I believe the company announces its 2024 producton guidance tonight on the NASDAQ.
Also I was reading the company's development profile for Hod Maden in Turkey today (owns 40%) but that was probably for confirmation bias.
Few years ahead looking gold company - I hope.

Held and Holding

WEEKLY - for a chance at bouncing not far from the Wuhan low, March 2020?

 

[finicky]

Hahaha .. HAHAHA .. HA .. . Sob

 

[finicky]

Smashed - down -38%
Edit: now down -48%
And the 2024 production guidance report is dense gobbledygook. Somebody else can interpret it.
It means like 200kozs p.a less for 3 years straight, including 2024, so from 2024 - 2026 inclusive, at AISC of around US$1600 oz (2024) plus growth capital of US$167m (2024). Then returning to its former glory supposedly in 2027, "approaching" 800kozs production and "trending towards" AiSC of US$1300 oz.
Weighted average mine life of 13 years.
This is like an orphan period, but for a mature miner, no one f'g wants it.

Held

 

[Sean K]

Smashed - down -38%
Edit: now down -48%
And the 2024 production guidance report is dense gobbledygook. Somebody else can interpret it.
It means like 200kozs p.a less for 3 years straight, including 2024, so from 2024 - 2026 inclusive, at AISC of around US$1600 oz (2024) plus growth capital of US$167m (2024). Then returning to its former glory supposedly in 2027, "approaching" 800kozs production and "trending towards" AiSC of US$1300 oz.
Weighted average mine life of 13 years.
This is like an orphan period, but for a mature miner, no one f'g wants it.

Held

View attachment 170789


View attachment 170790

53%

It's been a while since I've seen such a bashing.

That's quite depressing. Bar might open early today.

 

[Sean K]

@finicky I don't understand why half the MC has been wiped but only a quarter of production will be affected for a couple of years. Not sure where you got the timeline for repair? There's 9 miners missing which doesn't sound good. Maybe the expectation is that SSR can't manage this mine and are dangerous to the community. Not their first stuff up here. Maybe gigantic fines are in the pipeline? What a shamozzle.

 

[finicky]

@Sean K I hadn't chased down any news on the heap slippage, now being referred to as a landslide and didn't know any miners were trapped.

The timeline obviously was not taking into account likely punitive reactions from the government and mining bureacracy. Last time an adverse event happened at Copler, involving a cyanide leak from a heap leach pad, the authorities were very slow to allow a restart, I think it was a couple of quarters?

The production timeline is in the company graphic that I put in my post - 3 years forecasted of lower flat production, high growth capital expenditure and very free low cashflow - but it was all obviously all worked out before the accident and was presented to the market without alteration - what could they say at that early point anyway.

Not to be complacent, but an above surface 'landslide' or 'heap slippage' trapping the miners underground sounds a less ominous scenario than a mine collapse? I didn't know that Copler had an u/g operation, I thought it was all a giant open pit.

SSR Mining shares tank as landslide hits Çöpler mine in Türkiye

SSR Mining shares plummeted by more than 50% after a landslide at its part-owned Çöpler gold mine in eastern Türkiye is believed to have trapped at least...

www.proactiveinvestors.com

 

[finicky]

This is sounding very different and is the latest I could find. I am probably reading too much into a journalist using the word 'underground'. And the earlier 'heap slippage' apparently did not refer to an active heap leach stack. Men buried under a huge mound of old dry tailings sounds a lot lot worse. Sounds like there will be deaths to me.

https://www.mining.com/web/nine-gold-miners-missing-in-turkey-after-landslide/

"Security footage showed a giant mound of soil, which authorities said had been processed for gold and piled on the hills, rapidly crumble and flow into the valley in a deluge of earth and rocks, sending clouds of dust into the air.

Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya said 400 search and rescue workers were looking for the missing miners.

“In order to closely coordinate the rescue work, I will interrupt my international program with our president and move to the region as of tonight,” Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said in a posting on X, formerly Twitter.

The government said it has launched an investigation into the incident."

 

[finicky]

Ok, think I'm out tomorrow if I can get a buyer.
Ten News 2hrs ago according to YouTube.

 

[Sean K]

Ok, think I'm out tomorrow if I can get a buyer.
Ten News 2hrs ago according to YouTube.

This event was not a 'market sensitive' announcement to the ASX apparently.

I'm not selling, I've got nothing left to lose.

 

[finicky]

Looks like I'm out 3,250 @ 7.05 although I offered them @ 7.01
Actually,relieved to rescue $20k and change, didn't think I'd be able to, loss was around $45k, forgot to check exact amount of loss before I sold. God knows what the liability will be. I had no idea the mine sits right next to the Euphrates river and a cyanide spill is a conceivable issue, might be just a rumour. Then possibly the deaths of nine miners and the opposition party is already blaming the company.

 

[Sean K]

Looks like I'm out 3,250 @ 7.05 although I offered them @ 7.01
Actually,relieved to rescue $20k and change, didn't think I'd be able to, loss was around $45k, forgot to check exact amount of loss before I sold. God knows what the liability will be. I had no idea the mine sits right next to the Euphrates river and a cyanide spill is a conceivable issue, might be just a rumour. Then possibly the deaths of nine miners and the opposition party is already blaming the company.

Their ann out this morning is saving face a little. I don't think they'd mentioned that 9 miners were missing yesterday although the media were reporting it. Poor darts. What a debacle. I'm holding till it goes into administration or for a loss EOFY.

 

[frugal.rock]

Big trade through early, or is it late from yesterday...?

Time,. price, Vol, Value$, Code

 

[frugal.rock]

Im not selling