SSI - Sino Strategic International

[motorway]

Wyckoff Buying Tests: Nine Classic Tests for Accumulation
Nine Buying Tests (applied to an average or a stock after a decline)*
Indication: Determined From:
1) Downside price objective accomplished Figure Chart
2) Preliminary support, selling climax, secondary test Vertical and Figure
3) Activity bullish (volume increases on rallies and
decreases on reactions) Vertical
4) Downward stride broken (i.e., supply line penetrated) Vertical or Figure
5) Higher supports (daily low) Vertical or Figure
6) Higher tops (daily high prices rising) Vertical or Figure
7) Stock stronger than the market (i.e., stock more
responsive on rallies and more resistant to
reactions than the market index) Vertical Chart
8) Base forming (horizontal price line) Figure Chart
9) Estimated upside profit potential is at least three times Figure Chart for
the loss if protective stop is hit Profit Objective..

Taken from the Hudson Book...

All in (or completing) process

key words

apex forming .. dead centre

key principle/law

cause and effect.....

nice patterns ( of accumulation ? ) on the figure chart ?
rising supports apex forming on the vertical line chart ?

Here are some other charts to look at...

the ultimate cause is "earning power"
But hence not past..

presentation on the Sino Web site

suggests those weekly sale figures are growing

DYOR

opinions for discussion

motorway

 

[juw177]

Wow. Pretty much everything in the sell queue got snapped up today as soon as a big order took out the only resistance at $1.20. There was an article in the news today about them listing in HK.

No sellers right now, this can be the strong reversal as Motorway predicted.

 

[sting]

Less than 14,000 shares up for grabs on the sell side, buyers have beenpaying good premiums if they want whats on offer.People are starting to realise what these are really worth given China,s penchant for gambling.


SEMPER UBI SUB UBI

 

[motorway]

And what is it worth ?

The POS have relatively fixed cost base
You put them in place you staff them etc

But the revenue growth is not fixed

In relation to the business operations for the week ended 28 October 2007, total weekly sales
from the Points of Sale (“POS”) achieved another record of RMB 2.69 million, an increase of
14% on the results for the week ended 7 October 2007 as last reported.
Diversification of product offerings has continued to improve the weekly sales of the
Company’s gaming business in China. VLT and welfare lottery sales for the week ended 28
October 2007 achieved a record of RMB 288,143 and RMB 925,452, which is an increase of
15% and 39% respectively on the results last reported for the week ended 7 October 2007. In
the VLT segment, Hong Kou Multifunction Entertainment Centre has achieved operational
profit in 3 out of the past 5 weeks including the immediate past week. The sales of the new
gaming product, sports lottery, have also performed strongly with weekly sales of RMB
192,093 for the first full week of its implementation ended 28 October 2007.

And where on the curve is this ( That S curve ! )
At the beginning ?

So is the stock worth more all of a sudden ? than just before ?

The pattern of stock prices follow S curves with precursor and overrun characteristics......

Such that the technical position is so important.. weak and strong hands

If We take the original move to the Highs over $5 ... As precursor and overrun ( EW wave enthusiasts might call it wave 1 ? ) what might be the line of least resistance from here ?

In the unsteady steps of the toddler .. We see the fullness of the mature phases to come....toddler steps overrun and lurch.......In the share market
there is so much uncertainty that people pile in and pile out following along.

people sell at bottoms and buy at tops

All this is what determines the technical position
The floating supply transfers between
Strong and Weak hands
Technical positions change they are never fixed..

Panic is never far away in the stock market
And how else do We explain at one stage
people selling nonstop into a down trend that bottoms at .98

As as soon as they have sold ? It goes up again ?

It is Weak Hands Wyckoff addressed when he said

It won't go up till after you sell...

Have a definite, tangible plan of operation.

Stick to that plan--a locomotive off the track is
useless.

A close study of Wall Street securities, methods and conditions
will pay any man capable of using horse-sense in his ventures.

Panics are rare opportunities for people with money.

Buying when smart money buys and selling when they sell is a sure road to
wealth.

When your stock is in your own safe deposit box you can more patiently
wait for a large profit.

It doesn't matter how small you start, so long as you start right.

Bull markets follow panics as regularly as the sun rises and sets.


When you buy with the smart money they do all the marking up for you. If
they make money you must.

The big swings of the market cast their shadows before.

The individual, the nation, and the whole world, are frequently short
of ready money.
( Weaker Hands Will always cause overbought and oversold because they do not how to judge risk reward and are nearly 100% wrong in their use of leverage... Hence Why the Individual,Nation and Whole World run out of time options and money )

If you cannot gauge the buying point closely, put in a scale order.

A panic is a nauseated stock market, and brings its own cure.

Smarter money swings such big blocks that they are obliged to show their hand.

It only takes a few panics to do the trick.

Richard D Wyckoff
Specialist in Panics 1907

Here is the 8% chart
clearly showing the euphoric "first steps"
now is the reaction back
The unsteady steps of the toddler ( soon the young child racing away )
Or something else ?

The pattern on the 2% chart suggests usual growth pains and that normal
transmission will soon continue ...

It is all lifecycles intersecting...

probabilites and opinions
DYOR. Always




motorway

 

[sting]

In a sea or red in my portfolio this is the main green light up 10 cents so far today.

SEMPER UBI SUB UBI

 

[juw177]

It seems the momentum just stopped dead since it met some resistance at $1.90. Sellers are appearing in the depth and the buyers are not biting and the sell price gets slightly lower each day. It seems to be lack of demand and people who bought into breakout trying to take profits. There needs to be a shake out before the price can keep rising but it is rather difficult when the buying depth is so thin.

What do you think of the current trend motorway?

 

[motorway]

Look at this chart

The columns are drawn by support and resistance .

what ( or who ) makes support and resistance ?

support and resistance have the effect of a corral..

where demand and supply can be generated and imbalance will follow..

OK..........action went down... visibly stopped.. a lot of corralling..

The large column breaking up ( with the b in it )

how did that come about ?

That sort of column tends to be a beginning or an end

What is the context here ?

OK If buyers did not get cautious..
And demand kept reaching
all the supply would sit on the sidelines

So demand if there is time and space.. eases off to try and build a corral..
and generate some supply....

( In the open range how can you do anything ? You build a corral, hem them in.....trading ranges .. support resistance , hem them in .. allow that column to reverse )

Context is good ending action ... and a column that is a beginning

With a stock that is less liquid... price will tend to be more volatile.. But volume will be more transparent...

( there are less cattle to corral if you like... They will run a round a bit more...But if anyone wants them. It will be hard to hide )

I think where we are is a function of how far it moved up

Where the volume does come in now. Will probably tell all..


juw177

There is probably more to say
so take the discussion on..

Buyers are waiting to see what supply will come out
what buyers ? ( you say ) The ones that absorbed all the supply that led to the large column....There is no reason to negate the principles already identified....next juncture is a major "last point of support" ( That is what We are waiting to see confirmed.....or if We are underweight We might be trying now to take advantage of )


All that can (imo ) be read from this chart..
important point is that column is usually a beginning or an end
context points to which


AGM is soon

motorway

 

[motorway]

You can see that the breakout column reversed at the level of the
congestion pattern to the left ( earlier I designated as a pattern of uncertainty and preliminary support ) .... What better place to fish for some supply ? But .... where is that supply that then overcome demand.. Now

is it still there at this level ?

What about the pattern at the bottom ( a to b ) .. Does it look like a pattern of uncertainty ?.... Look at those rising supports along the trend line..

column b also has penetrated a major supply line

support and resistance move diagonally on the chart ( crucial to know when we do want to go fishing , or do not want to be someones catch)

like following a "creek"

Now where is that creek again ?


DYOR... A chart is a worth a 1000 words... more to say I am sure..

motorway

 

[motorway]

The half way point is a primary buy zone..
While measured accurately

It is really a vicinity or a zone of possibility
( roughly between 40% and 60% )

notice how not one column in the reaction back as managed to rise above a previous column...what ( who ) ever is creating this support and this resistance..... What is the intent ? What is the character here as distinct to appearance ?

What should We be looking at and out for ?
Why do stocks go up and down for ?

Where is it we see strength again ?



A primary Buy point occurs at certain ""positions" in the trend

( what is the trend here ? )

What distinguishes these positions is "how the stock arrived " at those positions

This "how" separates what could be a valid buy point from one that is not..

Buy points though they occur at primary positions that are easily defined.
It is the character that separates the gold from the dross..

What is the trend ?
What is the position ?

Where is the danger point ?
what would negate our definitions ?

Still there is much more to read from this chart.

motorway

 

[juw177]

Now that 50% retracement level's support got completely ignored, $1.15 - $1.25 seems to be a strong support point. Makes sense as it was the resistance point when this first broke out.

Still no sign of demand though. The sell down has been on lower volume than the move up so that is a good sign the weak hands are exiting. But it moved the price just the same because nobody was on the other side to soak it up. Where did they go?

Is this a cartel to try to keep me locked in this trade by not giving anyone a chance to sell? Because we all know why cartels don't work, unless it was all one party that was buying up the stock a few weeks ago.

 

[motorway]

Now that 50% retracement levels support got completely ignored

It is simply a reference point that We as traders/investors use for our purposes ( Buying and selling ) and as a measuring point

The stock itself doesn't even know it exists ( I know what you mean though )

I as posted expect price to be volatile , and volume transparent ( nature of such stocks )... The 50% is measured accurately but is really a vicinity of potential ( And it still might be "smart" to have commenced buying.. difference between trend and position.. Question should We buy or sell support ? )

price is already going to be volatile ... add in a down day in the context of already correcting ? (Who is it then sells support and buys resistance ?.. note no one has to buy at all.. volume I expect to be transparent refer to previous posts )

Still no sign of demand though

Do We still have a degree of passive sponsorship ? If So We saw demand ....

The sell down has been on lower volume than the move up so that is a good sign the weak hands are exiting

compare different phases of the action

In terms of how much duration, price range and volume..
Are we seeing ( relative ) no supply or no demand ( Within the context )

But it moved the price just the same because nobody was on the other side to soak it up. Where did they go?

Where were they at any time... sitting on the screen ?

Would the stock moving up and away ( b column )
cause you to stop pushing if at all possible ?

separate ,action from reaction.

Is this a cartel to try to keep me locked in this trade by not giving anyone a chance to sell? Because we all know why cartels don't work, unless it was all one party that was buying up the stock a few weeks ago.

Was there buying ? how much what was the result...
is there selling ? how much what is the result..

Question ... Do We have a bullish or bearish definition
once you decide .. what would negate that definition ?

and so

Should We be buying support or selling resistance ?


chart...........

P&F support and resistance move diagonally
( What makes the columns change ? )



Did the stock "jump the creek" ( change definition )
Has it backed up back to the edge of that creek ?

( is it in the process of a "test" )

on the P&F a breach of any line is made more ostensible ( That's the word used )
When a reversal tests that breach and reverses back and through

( not always needed )


B column was very long ( in context )

allow for a little overbought ..

P&F is very good ( imo)
esp with such stocks..

So I will leave the bar chart to later..

cheers juw177

DYOR...

My opinions



motorway

 

[grace]

There is a lot of TA on this stock, but I'm just wondering on fundamentals should I hold this dog in my portfolio in case it starts making money?

 

[motorway]

There is a lot of TA on this stock, but I'm just wondering on fundamentals should I hold this dog in my portfolio in case it starts making money?

You tell Me

AGM I think is the 30th....

I would expect there would be an update to the sales figures at least

Markets are negative,,,Including HK

Fundamentally SSI should be seen as a growth story..

I guess you would hold depending on Your view of that future growth..
( and this is where I believe the TA can help )

TA wise it has come back on very low volume
Demand not kicking in... reveals a unreadiness to move "NOW"

But next week ? We will see..........

Still have an accumulation base in place as far as I see.......

And on the fundamentals , new product launched etc...


motorway

 

[grace]

I bought this one because I follow the Speculator in The Bulletin a bit for my speccies. Anyhow, he got out and I didn't. He said in the bulletin that perhaps 2008 will be Sino's year (well 2007 certainly isn't)! The sp collapsed from the time that Sino got the ASX note regarding "did they have enough cash to carry on?". This, as well as the july/aug correction didn't at all help. They should be raking in the money really. One would think it should turn around. I'll give it until Christmas.....

 

[motorway]

Engines run on horse power
Stocks ( ultimately ) perform on earnings power..

The benefits of the Company’s product diversification strategy is becoming increasingly
evident in the past few weeks with Video Lottery Terminals (“VLT”), Welfare lotto and
Sports Lottery games becoming important contributors to the total weekly sales
performance. Since we last reported to the ASX on 10 October 2007 for the week ended 7
October 2007, total weekly sales have increased by 28.3% over these 7 weeks. The
strongest growth was achieved by the traditional Welfare lotto game which increased by
65.9 % and VLT sales by 17.7%. Sports Lottery sales which only began in the week ended
21 October are already accounting for 8.4% of total weekly sales.Importantly, total traditional Welfare lotto sales exceeded total Keno sales for the first time
despite the fact that this game is distributed in less than 70% of all POS outlets. Sports
Lottery games, on sale for only 6 weeks, already accounted for over 8% of total weekly
sales with distribution from just over 30% of all POS. The 3 upmarket VLT sales outlets
accounted for close to 10% of total weekly sales.

But ultimately those

who know more about it than the observer cannot conceal their future intentions regarding it. Their plans will be revealed in time by the stock's subsequent action.

Hence the charts.. hence esp P&F charts .. esp with such a stock ( One with very little following - This I think a very important point )

Accumulation--leads to--->markup

smarter money accumulates

how do you accumulate ?

For one You don't chase the offer up...
You buy on declines

Smart money in effect creates Support...

How do you get markup ?
someone does chases the offer up
who ?

By those following along... Who don't want to miss out

OK I anticipated SSI might start a markup
good pattern of accumulation
Nice breakout column
expect to see a last point of support form
and a following ...follow along = markup...

But still there is no following.
Only those who buy on declines ( That is still a good sign )

So the work of accumulation is still in train
and I see no negation of that at this stage

SSI is in a trading range ( wide but...That is the nature of such a stock.. trading range amplitude tends to be wide )

Still a lot can happen fast ( or true not at all )
Such stocks can stop and reverse
can rally vertically from an oversold position..
Did not happen

There is adjustment to the price range
While accumulation ( down and sideways) and fundamentals ( that will matter ) unfold...

So current trend is a trading range
I at this stage define as accumulation

first they scare you out, then they bore you out, and then if they can they scare you out , again

How You define the trend
Will determine , How You make Your play...


Charts...

The move down ?

1 reversal chart.... No column has risen above the previous, only small step backs

made new low... But found support from those who buy on declines ( that includes Me as a rule , But I was not buying today )

3 reversal .... We made a 3 box reversal at the bottom of a spike ( important )... The blue lines mark the "trading range".......

At this stage SSI has those who buy on declines and those who will sell on declines....

We could do with a postive market.. and some more good news at the AGM..

Interesting times

Still very passive sponsorship ( As defined previously.. some buyers do not care about short term gains at all )
Buyers do not seem to want any following at this stage..

Shakeout ?

DYOR...
Just My view...

The virtue of such stocks is if there is value. Then really nothing can stop a following from developing...

IF ( always a big if ) ... Sales have to continue to grow



motorway

 

[motorway]

Move up from the ending action
could not be seen as a SOS

because the failure of the halfway point
DID not confirm

A SOS anticipates a LPS

So, even though principles might follow closely.
They would seem to at this stage
To Not be exactly occurring together ( stop and reverse )

preliminary support anticipates some sort of ending action ( eg selling climax)
ending action anticipates a rally ( it's automatic )
But it might not be the real Sign of Strength...

IF PS , SC and AR are correct then what is anticipated is a secondary test ( spring , shakeout , even terminal shakeout )

Trading Range..........builds the cause

anticipates a real Sign of strength........

anticipation is not prediction

With correct anticipation . one can be in harmony
without anticipation ... one must follow along after .

( If a man is walking and at any moment is on his right leg... then it is anticipated that he will next step forward with his left... Of course if he knows we are watching he might try and hop instead.. But when it matters such false moves are ineffective ...

They first have to buy or sell

....)

AGM address... talks about a nationwide rollout
who knows how good this will be ?

I anticipate that I will see more support than resistance
If there is something good..

So looking for a sign of strength and a last point of support..
I have not updated the chart from yesterday..
Price/Volume today is interesting

motorway

 

[juw177]

Motorway, I am seeing the same thing here. Support is definitely strong but I suspect it may all be manipulation by one party. If there was more demand, we would have seen some support (like you say at 50%) during the retracement from $1.90, but there wasn't.

Instead the price was being marked down on very low volume until a final dump down to 85c to trigger some stop losses. So somebody does not want the price to go up just yet and accumulating between $1 and $1.10.

 

[motorway]

Motorway, I am seeing the same thing here. Support is definitely strong but I suspect it may all be manipulation by one party. If there was more demand, we would have seen some support (like you say at 50%) during the retracement from $1.90, but there wasn't.

Even if there is no direct manipulation... The fact most "follow" along
means people are their own worst enemies... They scare and bore themselves
They jump at the shadows of past price behavior...( a downtrend leaves behind a result that has an echo.... The trading range that follows does the work of scaring the bogey men away )

Instead the price was being marked down on very low volume until a final dump down to 85c to trigger some stop losses. So somebody does not want the price to go up just yet and accumulating between $1 and $1.10.

Yes.....But it will still be a tiny trading range if it goes up from here... A more extensive trading range can have any number of secondary tests ( more on that later ).. It depends on how many weak hands there are...

How many can a stock like this have ?
Hence ... Why , I was open to a V bottom forming

Of course it ultimately depends on - Is there something good here..

If there is a prize at the end of the race

The more informed can not hop around on one leg too long...
At some stage they have to stop looking disinterested and go for it...

If it rallies from here ... That is almost a V bottom...........

In the "'New Analysis" thread I mentioned cobweb theory....

It anticipates turning points in a market that is all just following along
That is one where no one is very smart..

The pattern on the chart is a cobweb pattern of demand in excess of supply
it would predict next turning point at $2.08........

Buy if there is smart money involved that will be manipulated higher or lower
( manipulated means non random not anything sinister )..

So don't take it too seriously
The pattern is what matters

And the only thing that matters really is - is there smart money involved.

motorway

 

[motorway]

Hinge , dead centre , springboard.............

Evocative words

A more extensive trading range can have any number of secondary tests ( more on that later ).

The action marked ST was a test of the ending action..

The question asked is about the nature intent and the quality of the action
seen to be "ending" the ST is what confirms

OK now the green arrows point to another test , another question asked..

The two small bars represent a test of the first test..of the

what is it ? spring or shakeout ?

You could have bought the spring
You certainly could have bought the test of that spring...

Demand is seen in the last bar

The prior bar was a hinge ( the green arrow )....

OK

Whenever you study the tape or a chart, consider what you see there
as an expression of the forces that lift and depress prices. Study
your charts not with an eye to comparing the shapes of the
formations, but from the viewpoint of the behavior of the stock; the
motives of those who are dominant in it; and the successes and
failures of the buyers and sellers as they struggle for mastery on
every move.

and

A chart indication means that a stock is probably going so far in a
certain direction only so long as its behavior continues to conform
with the original indication. You must always be on the alert for
changes and be expecting your chart indications to be reversed.

So the definition ( bullish or bearish ) is always open to new information

testing in some sense is continuous

A test is a response

"The study of responses ... is an almost unerring guide to the technical position of the market."
- Rollo Tape (Richard Wyckoff), 1908

P&F is on the Verge of doing something it could not do on the way down from the AR ... It is close to exceeding a previous box.. After pausing while some volume went through...( again signs of demand )

Waves gather a following
how they do this
and what to do about it

Is the method

DYOR

motorway

 

[motorway]

here is a .05x1 ...

A hinge point suggests
an area where one side is finished
and a

hare's breath

more from the other side
is all it might take...

I think any move to $1.15 would be interesting

floors Vs ceilings

more floor ?

Above $1.15 the

mid pattern rally

Will look more like a precusor

What is called an Automatic rally on the bar chart
was often called the mid pattern rally
of a P&F fulcrum pattern

DYOR

motorway