SPI200 Chat - What will happen next?? *suspense music*

[ivant]

In continuation of a thread hijacked from Family Guy, I thought it would be fair we move the chatter here

It all started on a rainy day right here.

So where will it all go now...

 

[ivant]

But, i have to say, wasn't today the weirdest day (in the markets)?

Just seems like the ceiling of the bounce, or the floor of the next run up... More likely to be the ceiling of bounce. The SPI hasn't rallied at all.

I'm guessing that where the All Ords ends up tonight will be important .

Should be interesting...

I think at the moment nothing really is a surprise. Look at the 3/4 hour charts, how their MACD is falling (a big fan of that). Also the 2 day plots... We are massively overbought. Just seems more likely that its the ceiling IMO.

Let's wait and find out

 

[beamstas]

A perfect eliott wave symmetrical triangle forming

Then again.. according to ivant i wouldn't know anything

Cheers
Brad

 

[Mr J]

The third day of boredom for me, hopefully followed by the third late afternoon bounce.

 

[Aussiest]

We are massively oversold.

Do you mean overbought?! Freudian slip

Yeah, today was really flat. Still 1 hr to go. Taking bets now

Maybe this is what a regular day in the market should look like (apart from the stagnation): some sectors up, some down. Some flat

 

[MRC & Co]

The third day of boredom for me.

And for me. Wednesday, Nikkei shut, Thursday some great moves globally, but obviously some idiot decided he would use this strength to do his end of month selling! Today, practically all of Asia shut.

Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Nikkei shut.

Then we are dead every day preceeding a US public holiday.

Very annoying!

Think we will break down this afternoon

 

[Sean K]

A perfect eliott wave symmetrical triangle forming

I'm not sure about perfect. It's more ascending, than symmetrical. I am still counting on it to fall over for more consolidation before going much higher. 3800 ish on the XJO looks pretty tough. Happy for it to push through though.

 

[ivant]

A perfect eliott wave symmetrical triangle forming

Then again.. according to ivant i wouldn't know anything

Cheers
Brad

Haha i didnt say you didnt know anything Brad, i just claimed you weren't open minded This will never get old haha. Although my EW is weak, isn't it always a little hard to predict the 4th and 5th waves?

The third day of boredom for me, hopefully followed by the third late afternoon bounce.

I agree man, our markets are dull. Actually the US isn't too much better. UK is pretty active. Time will tell if this continues, but McClellan Oscillator is suggesting a heavy heavy move before the end of the weekend!

Do you mean overbought?! Freudian slip

Yeah, today was really flat. Still 1 hr to go. Taking bets now

Maybe this is what a regular day in the market should look like (apart from the stagnation): some sectors up, some down. Some flat

Lol thanks for that!!! I fixed that, naughty naughty Ivan. Yea maybe if we broke 900 last night on the S&P, we would be in a bull market, and then this is what everyday would be like. Macquarie is in a trading halt. Oh oh.. Lucky I sold them a few weeks ago at 30.

 

[MRC & Co]

3800 ish on the XJO looks pretty tough. Happy for it to push through though.

If they can close us above there one of these days (at cash close) = bullish.

If not = bearish.

My

 

[beamstas]

Haha i didnt say you didnt know anything Brad, i just claimed you weren't open minded This will never get old haha. Although my EW is weak, isn't it always a little hard to predict the 4th and 5th waves?

We are going to retest that bottom line again, that's for sure.
Either way we break out of that triangle, it isn't going to be pretty

If its on the downside, skydiving hard and fast, then alot of weak buyers will be shaken out and we'll probably take out the March lows.

The Stochastic on the XJO is nearly unwound, we had some bearish type-a divergance late in April indicating we wouldn't take out the April highs for some time, and continue sideways at least until the Stochastic unwound.

Now that it has we could basically go anywhere.

I am not a believer in trying to predict the market.. Because i don't know what its going to do in the future. All i do is manage risk

SPI200 Chat - What will happen next??

I can tell you right now, nobody can answer this!

My - Bearish, especially with the U.S reporting season coming up very shortly.

 

[ivant]

And for me. Wednesday, Nikkei shut, Thursday some great moves globally, but obviously some idiot decided he would use this strength to do his end of month selling! Today, practically all of Asia shut.

Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Nikkei shut.

Then we are dead every day preceeding a US public holiday.

Very annoying!

Think we will break down this afternoon

Haha, obviously this idiot found a good time to dump his contracts... Why is Asia all shut?

I think its likely that a break will happen. US tonight has unemployment come out I believe.. When is the US holiday? Man i'm behind on the loop..

If they can close us above there one of these days (at cash close) = bullish.

If not = bearish.

My

Maybe not that far... Although I think above 3850, we definitely have some bullish trends...

 

[Mr J]

When is the US holiday?

According to the NYSE, not for a few weeks.

Think we will break down this afternoon

No, the bounce is on. Partly because it may have just started, but mainly because I'm off to the shops (always a sign to take the trade I may have made).

SPI200 Chat - What will happen next??

I can tell you right now, nobody can answer this!

I don't care, just as long as the daily ranges are decent. For the immediate future, down would be good as the rally needs some balancing.

 

[Sean K]

SPI200 Chat - What will happen next??

I can tell you right now, nobody can answer this!

My - Bearish, especially with the U.S reporting season coming up very shortly.

We are going to retest that bottom line again, that's for sure.

So we're going down, for sure....

Either way we break out of that triangle, it isn't going to be pretty

If we break up it won't be pretty?

If its on the downside, skydiving hard and fast, then alot of weak buyers will be shaken out and we'll probably take out the March lows.

Agree. What if it's choppy?

The Stochastic on the XJO is nearly unwound, we had some bearish type-a divergance late in April indicating we wouldn't take out the April highs for some time, and continue sideways at least until the Stochastic unwound.

What? So, the bearish divergance is unwound, isn't that more bullish?

I am not a believer in trying to predict the market.

Isn't that what you've just been trying to do? Refer to second quote.

 

[MRC & Co]

I think its likely that a break will happen. US tonight has unemployment come out I believe.. When is the US holiday? Man i'm behind on the loop..

Maybe not that far... Although I think above 3850, we definitely have some bullish trends...

No US holiday, just vening my frustration at our markets inability to trade properly when the larger markets are shut. It's like lunchtime all day long!

Na, 3800 a far more important number to close XJO CASH above IMO. We've already closed above 3750 numerous times, right?

 

[Frank D]

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

I've been factoring in a lower Friday close for this week:- looking for a move back into 844 in the short-term

But it won't happen unless it breaks support (5-day range)

Yesterday's reversal down should have closed below support and not
bounce.

It would not surprise me to see US markets close higher and around Friday's
highs

And then look for a higher Weekly open next week back down into 844

 

[Aussiest]

This is from nomore4s in the *trading blows goats* thread. Interesting take (sorry nomore4s for moving your quote, just thought it was relavant ):

All that bad news has been beaten into everyone for months now, none of it is unexpected. Everyone that wanted to sell are now out of the market, the panic has subsided and as all the sellers are now out of the market the line of least resistance is up - for now anyway.
The people who were buying in at the bottom in the face of all the gloom & doom are not going to be shaken out easily I wouldn't think, so this again creates less supply. So while demand might not be what it once was, at this point of time supply has dried up.

 

[Sean K]

This is from nomore4s in the *trading blows goats* thread. Interesting take (sorry nomore4s for moving your quote, just thought it was relavant ):

I agree to some extent. Some will simply add to their positions.

However, I think there's still some taxi driver/hair dresser/HC type characters still lurking who will dump on the next momentum led lemming rush to the cliff edge.

I'm still waiting for them to be flushed down the loo.

 

[MRC & Co]

No, the bounce is on. Partly because it may have just started, but mainly because I'm off to the shops (always a sign to take the trade I may have made).

Yes, note the wink!

On a day like today, it was always likely the range would be small, so more likely we would trade back up into it after breaking this mornings lows than running away downwards (of course, post cash could see anything, when the wild west opens). Also helps the S&P is going up, however, I doubt we will go as far, perhaps some unwinding of long SPI, short S&P spreads over the stress test period and before the weekend.

Gee you spend some time at the shops!

Personally, I hope the SPI does have another up leg, larger daily ranges.

 

[ivant]

We are going to retest that bottom line again, that's for sure.
Either way we break out of that triangle, it isn't going to be pretty

If its on the downside, skydiving hard and fast, then alot of weak buyers will be shaken out and we'll probably take out the March lows.

The Stochastic on the XJO is nearly unwound, we had some bearish type-a divergance late in April indicating we wouldn't take out the April highs for some time, and continue sideways at least until the Stochastic unwound.

Now that it has we could basically go anywhere.

I am not a believer in trying to predict the market.. Because i don't know what its going to do in the future. All i do is manage risk

SPI200 Chat - What will happen next??

I can tell you right now, nobody can answer this!

My - Bearish, especially with the U.S reporting season coming up very shortly.

Well obviously we do agree on more things than we originally thought! Haha, I strongly agree in reference to predicting where the market will go, and that we manage risk. We get a good view on the market and put out money where our mouth is. Then if something goes haywire we cut.

I have noticed the unwinding on the daily charts, however the longer term scales are still overbought.. 2 day charts and weekly charts are still a little too high for my liking... I guess time shall tell

I am amazed that so many people are bearish, and yet its not coming through.. That is the only worrying thing in my view.

 

[ivant]

Yes, note the wink!

On a day like today, it was always likely the range would be small, so more likely we would trade back up into it after breaking this mornings lows than running away downwards (of course, post cash could see anything, when the wild west opens). Also helps the S&P is going up, however, I doubt we will go as far, perhaps some unwinding of long SPI, short S&P spreads over the stress test period and before the weekend.

Gee you spend some time at the shops!

Personally, I hope the SPI does have another up leg, larger daily ranges.

Hey that will hurt me! I have 120 contracts riding on a fall lol! Don't wish for that... lol...

We are getting active now!! We moved 5 points in the last 7 minutes!! Its on.. Although we are reverting to futures only, so we shall see how it goes from now. We could get some movement in the last 1/2 hour..

In the US, the shorts haven't really been around too much during this rally. Believe you me, they will come back. Historically all lows need to be retested. All the mum and dad investors are weak buyers, they will sell out as soon as they get hit. and if they dont, who really cares? One man's decision will not affect the market, unless you are shorting with too many contracts...say 50,000.