Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Speculative Stock Portfolio

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Sometimes I visit some of the individual stock threads to get some inspiration to research stocks. Even then the best of the stock ideas don't get handed on a silver platter, it takes hard work and research to separate the wheat from the chaff.

So I'd like to acknowledge @frugal.rock for initially coming across today's portfolio addition. He is quite active in the small end of the market from what I've come across and usually I pass on a lot of those microcaps. But I read some comments on the HT8 thread recently and it looked like a company worth investigating further...

This profitable little small cap is a rare find in the online marketplace. It is the Number 1 marketplace seller on Amazon Australia. Going by the user reviews, Harris Technology Group Ltd (HT8) is doing a great job of selling technology products to it's customers.

1631027518275.png

As most of you know, Amazon is in it's infancy in Australia and there is huge market expansion still ahead of us, below is a little history...

1631027092413.png

So as Amazon expands across the country, imagine the growth HT8 could experience over the coming years as it grows alongside Amazon and what if it expands while keeping number 1 status... :cool:

BTW, HT8 is not limited to selling on the Amazon platform, it has it's sales channels spread across the main online marketplaces.

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Financial summary shows the outstanding growth it's experiencing.

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Although I came across this stock a few days ago as mentioned, it took me a while to look at the company in detail and I also wanted to see a little more convincing strength in the price action of it's shares. Today's move in share price with high volume was a good signal for me to purchase some shares for this portfolio.

Open Portfolio:
1631029260566.png
 
Tell you what, it hasn't been easy to batten down the hatches and keep the portfolio intact the last couple of weeks. Too many down days than up days and unfortunately two stocks have exited the portfolio: LIT and EPY.

Also it's not easy to find any themes to trade in the current environment. I have come across a couple which I would have considered purchasing in a more bullish overall market environment, but in the current environment will wait and see...

Closed:
1633530618998.png
 
As a person who enjoys reading the company news and trying to understand the potential for the business, surely you'd have a list of companies with great potential but perhaps the price is a little too high at the time you noticed them. A dip in the market like we're experiencing now should be a great time to start positions in some of these companies.

btw. I'm loving the ratio of green to red in your P&L column.
 
peter2 said:
As a person who enjoys reading the company news and trying to understand the potential for the business, surely you'd have a list of companies with great potential but perhaps the price is a little too high at the time you noticed them. A dip in the market like we're experiencing now should be a great time to start positions in some of these companies.

btw. I'm loving the ratio of green to red in your P&L column.
Click to expand...
Yes there's a few that I have been watching and waiting for a better entry price on, so they might become more attractive. Also some of the stocks that has been sold may get re-purchased after reviewing their status: if it's just as good in terms of operations but prices are slashed, then why not I suppose.

Thanks Peter, long hours of stock research has paid off with some profits banked.
 
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I've had a tough period with work and other priorities in life since the start of the year, therefore was unable to attend to this portfolio.

Amongst the market decline happening now, the speculative portfolio is closed with the losses crystalised.

May look to trade again in favourable conditions again in the future...
 
Being really honest with the ASF community members, I am disappointed with being slow to liquidate the speculative portfolio in June. Gave back good gains in stocks like MLX and very bitter with myself for letting the losses get bigger on HT8 for example.

The market sell-off that occurred during the last couple of months, and being out of active trading for a short while has given me some time to think things through, before venturing back into stocks. I think the market will be more challenging as I don't believe we'll be blessed with a straight up Covid recovery type bull market anytime soon...:cautious:

There may be up trending periods which would be nice to participate in, but whether they will be the beginnings of bull runs or bear market rallies will be hard to determine. So the point I am making is, I may have to be a bit more active in taking profits sooner when a stock has had a decent run. At least should lock in partial profits.

Also I will try and keep the commentary rather brief as I have less time these days to write those mini-thesis stock research that I used to post. I may briefly outline the reasons for entering a stock or jot down some bullet points. Also will just post the entry price at the time of purchase and just the % gain or % loss when the trade is closed to save time.

Therefore without any further waffle, I purchased American Rare Earths Ltd (ARR) shares at 27c to re-start the spec portfolio based on below reasons:

1. Aussie Rare Earths heavyweight Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (LYC) has broken the short term down-trend:

1659625874787.png
Hence assuming juniors like ARR will follow...

2. Continuation of China-America tensions. Given ARR assets reside in the American region, it could get re-rated as there is a push towards local sourcing of RE's...
1659626925592.png

3. Successful exploration continues...

1659626451367.png

Open Positions:
1659627221669.png
 
Took partial profits on ARR as the price surged over 20% today.

1659952777778.png

It was pure luck that I got to sell near the top of the day's range, as I was busy during the day to look at the market and only had a brief chance to have a peek near the closing minutes. Caption of my trading account to show that I am not cherry picking favourable prices:

1659952890505.png

Took a short term trade on Costa Group Holdings Ltd (CGC) . Won't go into the fundamentals as I have done company analysis in the past, see post https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/speculative-stock-portfolio.33280/post-1074116

From a long term technical standpoint, price has found support around the same levels reached in March 2020 and bounced:

1659953617646.png

From a shorter term view, there is an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern on the chart, which is considered bullish by technical analysts and traders that use chart patterns in their analysis:

1659954120009.png

Open Portfolio:
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Closed Positions:
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After buying American Rare Earths Ltd (ARR) for this portfolio recently, I was on the lookout for another Rare Earth (RE) junior to add. There is several asx listed RE juniors around with presence in the local region, but I was researching for juniors with exposure to the neighbourhood in the Americas as in the case with ARR...

Vital Metals Limited (VML) has it's operations in Canada, so in the American neighbourhood. VML also has an excellent management team amongst the asx listed junior mining companies, who has managed to get the RE mining operation going in a very short time and now becoming the first RE producer in Canada...

1660575705241.png

Becoming a producer should put VML in the limelight in the US region as China-US tensions escalate due to Taiwan situation. US president Joe Biden is encouraging local production of critical minerals:

1660576389024.png

Open Portfolio:
1660577202154.png

Booked profits on short term trade in CGC. There could be further upside, but happy with the stock meeting the short term objective for the below reasons:
  1. Price has exceeded the target height from peak of the head to neckline. Text book example of Target Price Projection for inverse Head and Shoulders pattern shown below:
    1660578267483.png
  2. Recent price gap filled/closed:
1660578354652.png

Caption from my trading account that shows trade exit:

1660578640475.png
Closed Positions:
1660578716262.png
 
When you dig deep into certain sectors of the market, this year has been brutal ! One of the worst hit sectors is the FinTech, some stocks have had massive declines, as much as 80% in some cases. ?

A few have rallied hard in the recent few trading days. Looks more convincing with the bounce than a dead cat. :cat:
Maybe the cat managed to climb on a pogo stick while falling...

1660839539691.png
So I decided to buy some shares of Tyro Payments Ltd (TYR) for this portfolio. I think Tyro is one of the more established players in this sector. Below is a quick summary of what they do...
1660840817135.png

I have even come across some small business that use the Tyro POS (Point of Sale) terminals, that look like these:

1660841838340.png

So I know it's a legit business, not a dot com internet hype. As Peter Lynch would say:

1660842291594.png

Being a down day on the asx, there was a sea of red across the watchlists. So it felt uncomfortable to purchase shares in anything. But I managed to pull the trigger on TYR...

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Open Portfolio:
1660841352904.png
 
Owned a Restaurant.
Loved Tyro as it charged the Customer the Bank Fee and not the business. I saved $12k a year. Also kept the surplus Cash in their Banking System.
More and More businesses are using their system. Customer service is not to bad....

Stunned they have sunk this low. Would Love to buy more but have enough if they go up. Won't go broke if they fail.
 
@UMike, Great insight into TYR as someone who actually used their services :xyxthumbs

I think the payment provider may actually be preferred by the smaller businesses and start ups that wish to avoid paying the 1 - 2% fees charged by other payment suppliers.

I don't know how this trade will go, as the market is very volatile. But I may consider putting a long term position in TYR in the Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio, an amount that I am willing to hold through any downturns and not worry.
 
Since the capital raising gap down, prices have gone down every single day for ARR. I thought it will consolidate around the capital raise price and slowly recover and fill the gap. Since it kept falling, I lost patience and got out of the ARR stock by selling the remaining position:

1661340560004.png

Have been monitoring the Uranium space for a while now, and decided to by some shares in Deep Yellow Limited (DYL). I have extensively covered the DYL story in the past and provided information as to why it's my 'go to' stock for U3O8 speculation on asx, headed by former Paladin Energy Ltd (PDN) CEO John Borshoff.

1661341825476.png

Open Portfolio:
1661342270485.png

Closed Positions:
1661342503942.png
 
Sold half of the shares in TYR:

1661962413173.png

Also congratulations to @UMike for being the runner up with the August Stock Tipping Competition tipping TYR: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/august-2022-stock-competition-entries.37168/post-1190801

Hope the remaining shares for TYR sticks on, in this portfolio for some time... ?

As previously mentioned, TYR business model does not entirely rely on cheap credit, as it provides payment solutions for business especially small business with Point-Of-Sale (POS) terminals for taking credit/debit card payments. When we had the near-zero interest rates for the last few years, I was quite happy to frequently add Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) stocks to this portfolio as they thrived in a cheap credit environment.

I am sure you guys remember the mammoth of the BNPL space Afteray (APT) ? It had an epic share price increase before being acquired by US based payments company Square Inc. Below is a summary from Google:

1661962006868.png

Other than the banks that offer their payment solutions for businesses, as far as I can see there isn't a Square/Block Inc. equivalent on the asx, other than Tyro Payments Ltd (TYR). So TYR could be somewhat unique in that regard.

Closed Positions:
1661963140687.png
 

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