SP500

[Student of Gann]

Keep an eye on the 28th Dec​

SP500 Part 1 :

The next key turning date is the 28th Dec which could turn out to be Low. It would be wise to wait for this Cycle to roll in and a few days beforehand we should be able to determine if this date is setting up as Low in line with the Curve . From here we could be till the 6th Dec where Top is indicated so this is the first section of the Forecast that we are planning to trade . As outlined earlier it is very important to wait for the Cycle dates to come in and once that point has been qualified as either Top or Bottom we can then trade OUT of the Cycle date. In some cases I may be expecting a Top to come in on a particular date and it turns out to be a Low instead which can happen from time to time so by waiting a week or so for the turning point to materialize we can then confirm it is Top or Bottom placing us in a stronger and clearer position to match this point against previous movements. Through this process we are able to locate and position off strong timing dates where two or more time sequences converge in conjunction with other timing indicators . By waiting for the proper time we will be in a clearer position to determine both the likely duration and amplitude of the ensuing price move by examining past records . In the case of the SP500 we have had a sharp selloff in quite a short space of time and the Forecast indicates that we could continue down into the 28th Dec where Low is indicated so as there is only a week or so for this to play out it would be prudent to wait for this Cycle to run out and a few days beforehand we should be able to refine our calculations and set some strong price targets. You will save money and alleviate stress by remaining out of the market for another week or so and once the setup becomes clear and links up with previous movements we will be in a clearer position to determine the prevailing trend .

There is also two accompany chart pictures which breakdown and explain the recent swings. The two most important legs to study is the drop into the 25th Feb and the drop into the 17th June which bear similar technical characteristics . Notice the price move up into the 3rd Feb Top had two attempts at Top before breaking lower which matches the 14th Dec Top which also had two pushes at the Top before the ensuing decline . Both of these swings gapped down very heavily which also matches against the current pattern moving down . Swing No 1 dropped 10.4% in 22 days and Swing No 2 dropped 12.9% in 15 days which balances against the the time period for our 28th Dec projected Low . so by examining these three swings we can see that the declines were between 14 - 22 days with the 17th June being the closest match so there is a good chance that we could run out the same time period into the 28th Dec Low but we must wait for this move to play out . There may be an intraday opportunity if we get a counter trend Top movement on the 30 or 60 min chart but as the primary trend is geared down into the 28th it would be wise to only play the downside as any upside momentum will be limited and price amplitude small so you could look out for a counter trend Top setup to come in on the 30 and 60 min chart and look for price to trade lower off this point .

I have projected the previous two ranges off the 14th Dec Top which give us two downside price targets of 3671 which is 10.4% down and 3572 which is 12.9% down . The market may not touch these points exactly but they will provide a good framework to monitor as we move down into the 28th Dec Low and around that point we can see if the Cycle is running into any of these price points and linking up . The current move down is only around 7.3% so we are under the past two swings which would indicate that we still have further to fall .

2 Squares up from the 3491 Low = 3731 another target to watch

4 Squares down from Top = 3603 another important point to watch

Some other key downside levels to watch are 3773 3745 3685 so if we continue down into the 28th Dec we should look at these zones to see if they are lining up . If we do make Low on the 28th Dec we could be up till the 6th Jan where Top is indicated so as we are just concentrating on trading this section we have around a week in the trade . Previous campaigns saw an increase of 8 and 9.5% so if we do make low off the 28th there is a possibility of a run around this magnitude although it is only an indication and the most important consideration is Time as markets will reverse off these points irrespective of where price is situated .

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[Student of Gann]

SP500 :

Nov 21-22nd is the next key date to watch for potential counter trend Low before resumption of trend up.

Curve No 1 shows trend down into Nov 21-22nd at 240 Deg an important Seasonal date for change in trend. The second date indicated is X which has been drawn in as a potential counter trend Low - this date is a Minor Cycle so our first strategy would be to watch how price is moving up into this date then a few days before hand the position of the market should allow us to determine if we are either setting up into Top or counter Low and then the appropriate action would be taken at that time . By knowing these points in advance a time based structure can be laid out then the position of trend would be observed as we move into these dates. The most likely scenario at the moment is a possible Low into the target date so if this sets up we could look to enter long on the next higher bar and set a time based stop around the 21-22nd Nov date. Last week I had prepared two potential Curves outlining the direction of trend but as we roll into this date and the structure of the current correction a Low looks more likely. There are several dates of Minor and one of Major degree outlined on the Curve which is projected out till the end of Dec on my website but my initial focus is seeing how we set up into the target date and if price is lining up against any of projection points. By studying past Campaigns we can sometimes get a line on what to expect in the future. Ranges and time periods will sometimes repeat or come fairly close over the years and by studying the current position of the market in relation to past structures gives us an indication as to where we may be located within the current Cycle


2018 we were down into late Dec for Bear Low
2019 we were up through Dec and Jan
2022 up till mid Dec then down into third week of Dec
2023 up through Dec and Jan

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[Student of Gann]

SP500​

If we continue to move up keep an eye on Dec 6-9th for potential Top as outlined in previous Notes. The calculations behind this Curve took well over six hours of solid work to produce so what you are viewing here is only a fraction of the work involved. This Cycle comes out over the weekend so we would watch how price moves into this point very closely . If we continue to have this creeping market up into projected Top that could be one possibility or we could have a blowoff move into Top which looks more likely so if you are already long knowing this date in advance is of significant importance particularly if you are heavily weighted in the Index . One strategy would be to wait for the potential Top to come in and then "trade out of it " once the position of the market has been confirmed leading into this date. Sometimes by being patient and waiting for the correct time to act on the edge of these cycle points increases our technical chances of being on the correct side of the market and by selectively trading this one particular " section " of the market outlined on the Curve we have a roadmap in front of us with clear boundary points to manage the trade within. The second date that could see Top is Dec 11th and I think that would be the latest point to see trend turn down but Dec 6-9th looks fairly strong for Top so even if you unwind your positions coming into this date you could possibly protect yourself from a significant loss if we are to setup into Top . If we start to run down we could see Low on X which would give us around X days exposure on the short side so in the next set of notes I will try to calculate some potential price targets for Top and then try to get a line on the potential magnitude of the decline into projected X Low which links up with the X Chart and other Fixed counts . But for the time being I just wanted to put this Curve out to alert people on the upcoming date so as we roll into this point the position of the market will hopefully give us a clearer picture of how we are setting up against the Cycle.


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[Student of Gann]

SP500 : Posted Nov 30th

If we continue to move up keep an eye on Dec 6-9th for potential Top.