Simulated/Hypothetical trades

[pavilion103]

Tech, a question for you specifically and I'll ask it here for the benefit of the whole site.

MNW. Up 70% for the day.

How would you trade this from here?

Is this one that you would sell on the next open? Or some other way of trailing it?

In your experience, how do ones like this react after a big move like today?

 

[tech/a]

Tech, a question for you specifically and I'll ask it here for the benefit of the whole site.

MNW. Up 70% for the day.

How would you trade this from here?

Is this one that you would sell on the next open? Or some other way of trailing it?

In your experience, how do ones like this react after a big move like today?

This will reverse viciously.
I've traded quite a few that do this---never with enough!

This is how I would play it.

If on Monday it looks like gapping up on open.

(1) Trailing stop at the high of today.

Then Id have a sell stop (EXIT) 2 ticks above the price it is likely to open at.

(2) If it looks like opening below todays close then sell at open.

It wont continue vertically
It will reverse strongly--you will learn a lot from that reversal.
You'll notice there is no hold strategy.
It will happen very quickly.

Enjoy.

 

[skyQuake]

This will reverse viciously.
I've traded quite a few that do this---never with enough!

This is how I would play it.

If on Monday it looks like gapping up on open.

(1) Trailing stop at the high of today.

Then Id have a sell stop (EXIT) 2 ticks above the price it is likely to open at.

(2) If it looks like opening below todays close then sell at open.

It wont continue vertically
It will reverse strongly--you will learn a lot from that reversal.
You'll notice there is no hold strategy.
It will happen very quickly.

Enjoy.

Looks good tech. Never thought about having a conditional strategy in place like that.

Personally, I would sell the day before the instos get their cheap 10c placement stock. Though there is no Appendix 3B we have no idea when that comes on...

gl with the trade

 

[pavilion103]

Dammit. Wish I had held. Up to 35.5c as of this morning.

Thinking there might be some benefit in just holding those types of stocks a bit longer term and trailing new lows. I've seen some really take off.

A couple of low priced ones I'm watching include: RIA, ABN, GRB

 

[tech/a]

It reversed to 22 c then started to move up again on increasing volume.
There was plenty of time to enter this stock after the initial impulse move was validated.

If you wish to enter it you have 3 options.
Wide stop or pull back or No stop.

 

[pavilion103]

A couple of interesting ones to watch. I'm in both of these. Interesting to see if they turn down if the market does.

All my stocks are in profit at the moment. This little run has been good. Not sure how much longer it can go though!

Green = entry
Red = initial stop
Pink = trailing stop

 

[pavilion103]

Out of those now.



Not sure if others are finding this too, but trading a momentum strategy I am noticing a few setups appearing. I've got quite a few pending orders with setups based on tight consolidations on declining volume. Interesting time!

 

[pavilion103]

I'm posting these in the hypothetical trades because I didn't post these all in real time.

Although if you check each of the individual stock threads I did!

Not sure where else to discuss this.

The interesting discussion point for me here is that I've had a great start to the year with my ASX momentum setups but have only taken 8, well selected trades. I've identified my best setups and taken them and left everything else alone. I'm not too bullish about overall market conditions.

Here is a summary: note this is not my actual account size. I always post with a hypothetical $50,000 account so don't read anything into it.



- - - Updated - - -

Charts of note.

Active trades - AAD and BLD

 

[pavilion103]

Closed trades - TFC, TGZ, GEM

 

[pavilion103]

Not sure if there would be interest for a thread trading this in real time on the forum?

Because I am taking so few trades it isn't as time consuming as the one with Tech last year.

I've taken a total of 8 trades for the year.
I am mainly focusing on FTSE futures as can be seen in the Transition to Futures Trading thread.

My strategy is to pour those profits into this portfolio.

If there is any interest for a separate thread let me know.
I didn't want to just go ahead and create one.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Here is a summary: note this is not my actual account size. I always post with a hypothetical $50,000 account so don't read anything into it.

Regardless of simulation, would it not be better to trade as if real time? For instance the TFC buy of 105263 shares at .99 has the wrong total position dollar value and I notice the position sizes for all trades range from 35k to 191k though I assume the risk per trade is the same.

Quick check = Yes the risk per trade is 5k.

 

[pavilion103]

Ah...
What have I done?
I'll have a look and fix it. Sorry.

 

[Lone Wolf]

Not sure if there would be interest for a thread trading this in real time on the forum?

I think the more actual trading threads we have on here the better. So if you want to do it I say go for it. So long as the time taken to do so isn't detrimental to your trading.

 

[Newt]

Hmm, I'm finding my path crossing yours again Pav. I spent quite a few hours today dissecting my trend trades over the last 18 months for periods where they could have been taken as momentum plays. By reviewing ATR multiples above the long term lower (supporting) trend line, along with dips in short term ATR, I've found some interesting options for optimising entries. This post from Peter got me thinking along these lines originally by the way (post#7):
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=27976&highlight=premature+exits

Playing with my spredsheet and 20/20 hindsight has been somthing I've meant to do for weeks. Well, interesting for me, perhaps old hat for the experienced. Really just gobblidook for periods of surging price momentum tend to follow periods of consolidation. Do I get the nobel prize for stock picking yet?

Anyway, I think this is important bread and butter stuff for trend/momentum traders and you should keep at it. I'm will to put a few up after the fact too.

 

[pavilion103]

Another setup.
Scan returns 95 results.
Only like 1!

Not the time to be going crazy!

 

[pavilion103]

That last setup cancelled.

AAD and BLD continue to move. Up another 2.5% so far today.

 

[Wysiwyg]

That last setup cancelled.

Breakout on the 24th was fruitful. These stocks don't overreact to downward market movement. Have to admit I have never tried this strategy for fear of being caught holding the hot potato.

 

[pavilion103]

Breakout on the 24th was fruitful. These stocks don't overreact to downward market movement. Have to admit I have never tried this strategy for fear of being caught holding the hot potato.

I usually just don't trade them in a down market. I've stroll got AAD and BLD but not looking to take any more.

A nice run with some of these stocks over a couple of months but now I'm pulling out.

I've found that by preserving capital during challenging times, overall returns are boosted.

 

[pavilion103]

A month since my last post.

Market conditions are still no more favourable.

Looking to get active again with stocks once the general market looks stronger.

In the meantime trading the FTSE both ways (mainly short).


I miss trading stocks at the moment! But like I said before, preservation of capital is important.

 

[pavilion103]

Given the potential support level here on the XAO I might have a look at a few stocks again with the plan of holding for a couple of weeks if it pushes up.

If anything interesting comes my way I will post up some charts.