Simulated/Hypothetical trades

[CanOz]

Well that has posed a bit of a dilemma for me during those good times.

1) Do I take 1.5-2% fixed fractional positioning as my account size increases

2) Do I use a lower fixed fractional percentage of account and take as many trades as capital allows i.e. more diversified.


So far I've taken option 2, but not sure how extreme to take this.

From memory I think Nick had recommended keeping the risk the same, say 1% and just adding to a maximum of 10-15...

They can get a bit tricky to manage when they're over twenty positions and you risk allot of portfolio heat in a surprise event, also you risk making mistakes the more positions you have on too.

What's techs view?

CanOz

 

[tech/a]

Well that has posed a bit of a dilemma for me during those good times.

1) Do I take 1.5-2% fixed fractional positioning as my account size increases

2) Do I use a lower fixed fractional percentage of account and take as many trades as capital allows i.e. more diversified.


So far I've taken option 2, but not sure how extreme to take this.

I'd work at it differently.
I want to be on the trades that are running with momentum.
Rather than having more trades with less on each---your diversification is going to decrease risk but take away leverage by diluting capital in trades that are out performing.

Leave some capital aside so you can pyramid.
You have seen the dramatic difference to your portfolio
When you get it right and the way to squash risk if your
Trade goes pear shaped.

If you think about it you know what to do!

 

[pavilion103]

I'd work at it differently.
I want to be on the trades that are running with momentum.
Rather than having more trades with less on each---your diversification is going to decrease risk but take away leverage by diluting capital in trades that are out performing.

Leave some capital aside so you can pyramid.
You have seen the dramatic difference to your portfolio
When you get it right and the way to squash risk if your
Trade goes pear shaped.

If you think about it you know what to do!

I certainly agree that I don't want to sit there with a bunch of trades in no man's land, chewing up precious capital.

There were a few really good ones that we hit hard with pyramiding and made a good profit from.

Even when I've looked through Radge's in the past, there are some that stand out to me and I get on them, there are others that are larger patterns, or just don't look like they have the explosive potential to some of the ones we've traded in the portfolio.

 

[pavilion103]

MFG would be out at break even.

Now that is an example of getting on an opportunity and then minimizing risk.

 

[tech/a]

MFG would be out at break even.

Now that is an example of getting on an opportunity and then minimizing risk.

No harm done to the account.
No longer at risk.
No wondering.
No psychological issues.
NEXT!!!!

 

[pavilion103]

A whole new question but a question that first crossed my mind when we traded the telcos TLS AMM MTU ....

Taking the opposite side of the trade appearing to top out? I know short setups differ from longs but worth considering maybe.

With the telcos or banks recently I had longs and got out as it looked toppy. Shorting them in conjunction with XAO analysis would have been smart.

Could work for others...

 

[tech/a]

A whole new question but a question that first crossed my mind when we traded the telcos TLS AMM MTU ....

Taking the opposite side of the trade appearing to top out? I know short setups differ from longs but worth considering maybe.

With the telcos or banks recently I had longs and got out as it looked toppy. Shorting them in conjunction with XAO analysis would have been smart.

Could work for others...

Of course you can.
If you wish.

 

[pavilion103]

Might be worth me looking into in a bit more detail. Things can fall quickly.

I'll analyze taking the opposite trade vs waiting for a test.

 

[Boggo]

Might be worth me looking into in a bit more detail. Things can fall quickly.

I'll analyze taking the opposite trade vs waiting for a test.

SKE could be a good recent example of where that could work, the faster they run the harder they (can) fall.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16501&p=766395&viewfull=1#post766395

 

[pavilion103]

MFG!!!

We identified that it was going against the trend. But we're also very cautious.

Look at today's action!

 

[pavilion103]

Could have always had a setup for a break of the larger triangle which formed, but generally not looking at these types of trades right now.

Just posted out of interest.

 

[pavilion103]

My best trade of the last month = RCR

Not many are taking off like this one.

My entry was a tight consolidation above a significant high volume area.

Entry 2.73
Stop 2.58
Current 3.30

Defying the general market. Stops trailed in pink on the chart below.



- - - Updated - - -

Another to watch

 

[pavilion103]

RCR




IPP



- - - Updated - - -

I'm only holding 3 at the moment.
RCR, IPP and the third is SXL

 

[pavilion103]

3 more setups that I have entered tonight.

 

[pavilion103]

This was the best of them today - SXL - moving up on low volume, possibly indicating no supply.
It has just cleared major resistance.

 

[tech/a]

Watch this!

 

[pavilion103]

Wow. Something going on there.

The added bonus for this one is the opportunity cost of capital because the percentage gap between an exit and entry is relatively large.

 

[tech/a]

Well look at that

 

[pavilion103]

MNW is in a trading halt pending some announcement regarding a transaction.

Hopefully it is big (and good) news!

 

[pavilion103]

Up 45% on open.
Let's see how it goes throughout the day.

Glad you put this one up Tech, I hadn't noticed it in my scans. Got in just in time on the day of the trading halt.