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Silver price discussion and analysis

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Re: SILVER

Trembling Hand said:
LOL just making it up to help the CCB (Confirmation Conspiracy Bias).

Shorts and longs put up the SAME margin. Why don't you experts know the most basic functions of the market you dudes profess to know the inside story on????
Click to expand...

If anybody claims they know the inside story on the market i would walk away :)

There is some strange things going on with silver recently with the class suit against HSBC and JP Morgan so you can't come out and suggest everything is just conspiracy talk.

I'm not a gold/silver bug at all, i just post what i see in the news or alternative media sources.
 
Re: SILVER

explod said:
Of course, the rules are made for the shorts (read bullion banks). And taking delivery of physical is the only way to go and will squeeze the crooks out.
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The Comex was never a physical market, London is the physical market.... Comex to hedge, London to get metal. Comex position limits and the enforcement of them and the exceptions made have lead to abuse. That is now finally being recognized by the CFTC but it does not really go much further than that IMO. Don't expect much to come of the action against JPM, manipulation is very hard to establish in law.
 
Re: SILVER

nukz said:
I'm not a gold/silver bug at all, i just post what i see in the news or alternative media sources.
Click to expand...

Beware the bug's glass-opper!

Seriously the gold world is full of pimps, liars, charlatans, thieves, dooms dayers, anti social malignant.... things and some really smart money. Research all you read in the alternate media and the main stream media. Most are ignorant to one degree or another (I do include myself and you in that comment :D), most have an agenda and very few truly get gold and its roll in the financial world. Check everything! Especially before you go buying anyones line... its all skewed!

:2twocents
 
Re: SILVER

Is Silver's parabolic spike over?
Thursday, November 11, 2010
My third ever post on this blog was entitled "Where to for the price of Silver?", it suggested that we were likely going to see Silver head into a parabolic spike. The price target was $28.20 to $31.15. The blog was posted on the 20th of September when we saw the Silver price close at $20.71. Almost 2 months later on November 9th we saw a Silver price of $29.33 (intraday), this was a 42% increase from September 20th and approximately a 100% increase from the low I suggested Silver was rising from (made on February 5th).

This gives us the following parabolic spikes:

Parabolic Spike 1:
$9.23 - December 12th, 2005 -> $7.84 - December 28th,2005 -> 15% Fall
$7.84 - December 28th, 2005 -> $16.68 - April 18th, 2006 -> 113% Rise

Parabolic Spike 2:
$13.49 - July 24th, 2007 -> $11.04 - August 16th, 2007 -> 18% Fall
$11.04 - August 16th, 2007 -> $21.35 - March 17th, 2008 -> 93% Rise

Parabolic Spike 3
$18.89 - January 11th, 2010 -> $14.62 - February 5th, 2010 -> 22% Fall
$14.62 - February 5th, 2010 -> $29.33 - November 9th, 2010 -> 100% Rise


parabolic+spike.png

The price of Silver saw a big fall following the intraday high of $29.33. The fall was attributed to a change of margin requirement for Silver traders by the CME:

Commodity Exchanges Increase Margin Requirements as Prices Surge
Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Commodity exchanges in the U.S. and Europe are increasing the cost of trading some raw materials in response to a jump in volatility as prices surge.

CME Group Inc., the largest futures market, increased margin requirements, or the amount of money traders must keep on deposit, for soybean futures by as much as 10 percent as prices jumped to a 26-month high. The CME’s Comex unit raised the requirement for trading silver to $6,500 a contract from $5,000 as the metal reached a 30-year high. ICE Futures U.S. increased margins for cotton as the commodity rose to a record and LCH.Clearnet is raising them for robusta coffee, cocoa and white sugar next week.
Bloomberg


The question now remains: With the target price met is the spike over? Should we expect a fall and period of consolidation? I hinted in the September post that we might see a higher rise than previous spikes due to a longer period of consolidation and increased demand, will this be the case?

I encourage your comments on these unanswered questions!

This spike may not be over, but it would be prudent to take care if trading Silver on margin or if you are looking to buy a core position. In my opinion those accumulating Silver over time should continue to do so, but those looking to buy Silver for the first time should probably consider the sharp rise we've seen so far and whether they are happy to hold through a fall in price and consolidation (should the current spike be over).

It is my personal opinion that we will see higher Silver prices over coming months, however it is easy to get caught up in the 'hype' and I wonder how many other Silver investors thought Silver was going higher (short term) at the top of the spikes in 2006 and 2008...

Source: http://www.bullionbaron.com/2010/11/is-silvers-parabolic-spike-over.html

I thought this was quite a interesting read on today's drop, but from what i can see gold, currency, indicies also have dropped.
 
Re: SILVER

nukz said:
The question now remains: With the target price met is the spike over?
Click to expand...

No, Its just a breather

nukz said:
Should we expect a fall and period of consolidation?
Click to expand...

This is the consolidation thanks to the Chinese refusing to allow the price to drop below $26.50 per ounce. But that is not to say the commercials wont dump more shorts on Silver to suppress the price down some more.

nukz said:
I hinted in the September post that we might see a higher rise than previous spikes due to a longer period of consolidation and increased demand, will this be the case?
Click to expand...


Hell yes. Like to see $50.00 per ounce by the end of this year? Well we might just get it.
 
Re: SILVER

So according to bloomberg this large drop in well... everything including a huge drop in the Chinese market is attributed to speculation China will once again raise rates.
 
Re: SILVER

nukz said:
So according to bloomberg this large drop in well... everything including a huge drop in the Chinese market is attributed to speculation China will once again raise rates.
Click to expand...

Yep, typical.

Time to buy a bit more Silver I think.

1966 50 Cent rounds :)

Oh thank you Commercials, for this wonderful gift today.
 
Re: SILVER

Your man is pretty good there electronicmaster. Silver has flown through US$26 today like butter and leads gold which usually signifies the next big uptick coming for the p/metals.

Go the silver holders.
 
Re: SILVER

Nice work electronicmaster. I think maybe the dog didn't want him to give too much away.

Nice work in conspiracy thread also, near set that one as my home page.
 

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