SIG - Sigma Healthcare

[Nicks]

Too many analysts dropping their value of SIP and most saying they dont believe Sigma will even meet its next target.

Im struggling to see any upside to Sigma in the next 12 months, after that no doubt it could pick up.

Im all out for 1.39. Nasty loss but oh well, cant win them all. Just gotta win most.

 

[Miner]

Nicks
I tend to agree what you did .
I was holding it for long time and then shed it at 1.4 after making good losses. But that is fine and every time winning is not a game.
Ironically Huntley made a U turn to change its prediction from Buy to HOld within 24 hours.
Now there is another broker said speculative buy. That is not on technical ground but assuming someone will take it over.

One bird in hand is better than two birds in bush.

Regards

 

[Whiskers]

Can anyone explain why SIP pre open sales are quoted so high above yesterdays close on no news?

Sigma Pharmaceuticals Limited
(Trading Status: PRE_OPEN)
As at 23/10/2007 9:16:41 AM
Prev. Close
1.410

Last 10 Trades
Time Price Quantity
07:05:32 AM 2.500 10,000
07:05:32 AM 2.250 90,000
07:05:32 AM 2.250 16,000

 

[Awesomandy]

It's still early days. Wait till around 9:58, and see what we have left. I would guess that the open will be much closer to yesterday's close.

 

[rhen]

Contrarians, what do you think of this chart?
Certainly worth putting SIP on a watchlist?
This dog may, just may, show signs of coming to life, technically at least.
Linda (director) bought 34000 3 weeks ago.
Nielsen indices are also encouraging.
I have a small (long suffering) parcel...but this is a positive break above $1.505...but not for the faint-hearted!

have a great day,
rhen

 

[Rainmaker2000]

I'm a bit of contrarian but have managed to stop myself getting tempted on SIP......I just think for all the past belief that its a 'growth stock' and now a value play, I just think its a pretty average company which has already grown to dominate a market which remains competitive, not helped by govt. meddling...it likes issuing shares to make acquisitions and looks to be a capital intensive business....if its worth something, The Intelligent Investor rates it, so its obviously not far from its value

 

[nomore4s]

The chart of SIP has some interesting signs appearing.

Some signs of accumulation appearing? But I will stress there is alot more work to happen yet, as it is still in a down trend! But $1.30 looks to have established strong support.

Some tests coming up for SIP. While it is building a base atm, it still needs to break its down trend and with the sp now approaching the supply line of the trendline we should get an idea of the strength behind the stock and how much supply is still around.

I'm now guessing we will see some sort of quick probe lower maybe even a terminial shakeout to catch stops and test supply. Then I would like to see some higher highs and lows and maybe even a SOS, but if we do get some sort of rally we could also get another test of $1.30 before seeing a SOS.

Early days but one for the watchlist.

This of course could all get blown out of the water with a serious break of $1.30, then it would be a good short!

I think SIP reports results at the end of the month as well, which may provide more info on the future direction of this stock.

Charts attached.

 

[nomore4s]

Quick update.

Prices broke through the strong support a few times last week but managed to close at $1.30 or higher till Thur when the close was very weak, with 1.9mil shares going through at $1.225 at the closing auction.

With results due out tomorrow I'm not filled with confidence that they'll be positive after Thursdays close, someone desperately wanted out before the long weekend (and maybe the results being released on Tues).

But I was looking for some sort of terminal shakeout, the response will be telling imo.

Will try to update in more depth later in the week.

 

[nomore4s]

Okay prices are continuing to probe lower and obviously did not even have a good attempt at breaking the down trend, but what still has me interested is the volume surge which has accompanied the break below $1.30.

While supply still well and truly has the upper hand, there appears to be some strength in the background atm. Who is doing the buying?

The big question is will the strength in the background remain or will it be completely overwhelmed? There appears to be alot of supply around atm, but the vol surge is at least showing that the other side is interested in coming to the party imo.

The conviction of both sides may well be tested in the coming days/weeks.

Please keep in mind what I stated a few posts back that it is early days atm and this stock still in a long downtrend and has plenty of work to do to confirm there is accumulation going on, it could be a phase of re-distribution or nothing at all, but the character of the chart does suggest some accumulation to me (I've been known to be wrong quite often though, lol)

I haven't taken a position yet.

For those who have been following Motorways Wyckoff thread you may (or may not) find some similarities between the SIP chart and the early stages of the CEY chart posted in that thread. While the patterns aren't identical (eg the probe lower with SIP) imo some of the characteristics are the same(CEY probably has a more "text book" look to it though as it's in hindsight), and it will give an idea on the sort of timeframe and magnitude of move I'm looking for if accumulation is taking place. The CEY chart will also provide some insight into the signs I'm looking for to confirm accumulation is happening.

 

[nomore4s]

Strong day for the overall market and also a good day for SIP.

Have attached a chart with the thrusts down since Dec 06.

The ease of movement has very obvioulsy slowed since around July 07 - between points 5 - 7. The thrusts down have slowed considerably and the last thrust down has taken longer than the rest for not much new ground.

And look at the volume needed to push the price below $1.30. Effort & Result.
The next few days will give more insight into whether yesterdays high vol was demand or not but todays action seems to suggest it was.

This may not be the end of this current wave down as I would like to see a better rally than 1 day but the next rally and reaction will reveal more insight (character).

What I see atm is -
Slowing of momentum to the downside - shortening of thrusts (has yet to go up though)
The volume that has come in, has slowed the descent. Ease of movement - line of least resistence revealing itself?

Supply & Demand
Effort & Result
Cause & Effect

 

[reece55]

Strong day for the overall market and also a good day for SIP.

Have attached a chart with the thrusts down since Dec 06.

The ease of movement has very obvioulsy slowed since around July 07 - between points 5 - 7. The thrusts down have slowed considerably and the last thrust down has taken longer than the rest for not much new ground.

And look at the volume needed to push the price below $1.30. Effort & Result.
The next few days will give more insight into whether yesterdays high vol was demand or not but todays action seems to suggest it was.

This may not be the end of this current wave down as I would like to see a better rally than 1 day but the next rally and reaction will reveal more insight (character).

What I see atm is -
Slowing of momentum to the downside - shortening of thrusts (has yet to go up though)
The volume that has come in, has slowed the descent. Ease of movement - line of least resistence revealing itself?

Supply & Demand
Effort & Result
Cause & Effect

Jeez, it's been a tough run for Sigma.....

Once upon ago this was a stock that warranted a hefty premium, with high returns on equity and strong EPS growth... Then the PBS was revamped and it looks like Sigma was the net loser in the equation....

Whilst the technicals look very weak here, substantial holders appear to be popping up quickly and volume in this latest move down is extreme.... Perhaps a few people are now throwing away there underperforming stocks...

Funnymental back of envelope valuation supports a price of 1.24, with NPAT only growing with inflation in perpetuity..... My view would be that this is a market with high barriers to entry and 3% in perpetuity is an extremely conservative approach.... 10% growth gives 2.48, so good risk reward from a numbers perspective... But just look at the attached weekly chart since the acquisition of Arrow........ ooooooooooowwwwww.....

Cheers

 

[quarky]

damn...
today, SIP dropped to $1.065

and this is a stock that i bought quite a few, about a year ago, at $2.50

i hope this doesn't collapse One.Tel style or there's some kind of Wollongong Council managerial undertable-dealings.

don't know what to do. buy more into it, given its risk/reward characteristics...or sell and move on.
decisions, decisions...

 

[Nicks]

I bought at 2.20, only to keep buying more as it went down. Kept buying to about 1.70 until it announced that nasty report which sent shares downward. Sold out at 1.39. Glad I did now.

Moral of story - sometimes buying as it goes down doesnt work. If i'd kept doing it i'd be even worse off now.

SIP is one share whose story really disappoints.

 

[Julia]

damn...
today, SIP dropped to $1.065

and this is a stock that i bought quite a few, about a year ago, at $2.50

i hope this doesn't collapse One.Tel style or there's some kind of Wollongong Council managerial undertable-dealings.

don't know what to do. buy more into it, given its risk/reward characteristics...or sell and move on.
decisions, decisions...

Why would you buy more of something which is already losing you money?
Looks like a lot more risk than reward imo.

 

[nomore4s]

Will look at posting an updated chart when I get time.

Volume has dropped off and the price has fallen with no support, and the decent now appears to be picking up speed again.
To me it looks like whatever demand that was providing support in the higher vol bars has disappeared.

Unless we see some demand (support) come in for the stock it's not looking good.

Downtrend remain well and truly intact

 

[quarky]

Why would you buy more of something which is already losing you money?
Looks like a lot more risk than reward imo.

i think you're replying to Nicks post and mistakenly quoting me.
Nicks bought more as it went down. not me.

i only bought SIP once (and a pretty big sum of it) about a year ago.
it's sitting at well over half that value.

don't know what to do....
i haven't had much luck with the ASX, so am holding off.

 

[reece55]

Will look at posting an updated chart when I get time.

Volume has dropped off and the price has fallen with no support, and the decent now appears to be picking up speed again.
To me it looks like whatever demand that was providing support in the higher vol bars has disappeared.

Unless we see some demand (support) come in for the stock it's not looking good.

Downtrend remain well and truly intact

Hrmm.... I'm not sure... chart wise it is looking terrible, but substantial shareholders are turning up left right and center..... Funymetantal base case scenario supports a substantially higher valuation than SIP currently commands...

Normally, I would say this one is doomed because of the chart, but I just think this may be an extremely good buying point...... I have no technical basis to draw this conclusion however... Anyone here have an insight into the industry at the moment...

Cheers

 

[oldblue]

I don't have an insight into the industry, but a prominent investment advisor has SIP as a Buy at present.

( Okay, there are probably others who have it as a Sell)

 

[nomore4s]

Hrmm.... I'm not sure... chart wise it is looking terrible, but substantial shareholders are turning up left right and center..... Funymetantal base case scenario supports a substantially higher valuation than SIP currently commands...

Normally, I would say this one is doomed because of the chart, but I just think this may be an extremely good buying point...... I have no technical basis to draw this conclusion however... Anyone here have an insight into the industry at the moment...

Cheers

Reece, while my last statement was some what bearish, I still think the stock is being accumulated, so I'm probably long term bullish, lol.

I just don't think the accumultors(?) are in any hurry at the moment and seem willing to let the stock sag.

I was in a rush (like now) in my last post so probably not exactly what I was trying to say.

I will try to post an updated analysis when I get time - probably not till tomorrow or the weekend.

While buying at these levels may prove to be a good buying point I would only do so if you have a long term view.

 

[Julia]

i think you're replying to Nicks post and mistakenly quoting me.
Nicks bought more as it went down. not me.

No. I'm not. Nicks made it quite clear he had sold.

I was responding to your Post 52 of 14 April where you said:
"don't know what to do. buy more into it, given its risk/reward characteristics...or sell and move on.
decisions, decisions... "

I was questioning why you would consider buying more, given how much you had already lost.

i only bought SIP once (and a pretty big sum of it) about a year ago.
it's sitting at well over half that value.

don't know what to do....
i haven't had much luck with the ASX, so am holding off.

Seems you're still undecided.