SHV - Select Harvests

[peter2]

If you're still "nutty" over this almond producer.

The chart looks much more promising now and if price forms a higher low(HL) here, the break-out above 5.50 would be a worthy setup.

Who knew how volatile almond prices could be?

 

[craft]

Who knew how volatile almond prices could be?

View attachment 66456

SHV is not only leveraged to the almond prices but also water. They don’t own enough water rights to meet their needs without buying spot and Almond Trees are permanent plantings that you can’t let die and still have a business no matter how silly the water price goes in the short run. Volatility assured.

My way out there predication is that one very dry year WBA will buy these guys for a song.

 

[pixel]

Transferred from Breakout Thread: cropcos suggested

SHV has formed a rounded base, shot higher on increased volume and is taking a breather. the shallow retracement of the recent high offers a low risk entry. watch for a break of $7.56

The chart provided in support suggests a Cup'n'Handle pattern which, if playing out "by the book", should indeed offer a target close to $10.



Were this pattern to form after an uptrend, as it did in 2014, the odds for a breakout would be significantly higher, as would be the target range. However, I have also seen it succeed after a pullback like above.

 

[Triathlete]

Transferred from Breakout Thread: cropcos suggested
The chart provided in support suggests a Cup'n'Handle pattern which, if playing out "by the book", should indeed offer a target close to $10.

If we do get this breakout as has been suggested the first area of resistance I would look at is $8.685 this is the 50% retracement from the low in April 2016 back up to the high in August 2015.

The stock has a Dow entry now on the weekly chart and with all the daily, weekly and monthly swings pointing up so stock looking good for a run and we still have 19% left in the move based on Fridays close to this first resistance level, I guess a case of what your risk/reward is.

If it does get here and closes above this 50% level @$ 8.685 then I would say the stock is strong and a further run towards $10 is certainly a possibility and if it finds too much resistance here it may come all the way back.

 

[History Repeats]

Purely looking at momentum, rank 7th overall within small cap index. And one of the two stocks on the top 10 momentum that is not from mining or mineral sector/industry from the index.

 

[pixel]

Purely looking at momentum, rank 7th overall within small cap index. And one of the two stocks on the top 10 momentum that is not from mining or mineral sector/industry from the index.

... and one of the stocks that are new in my portfolio.
Here's hoping the break doesn't turn out to be a false one

 

[peter2]

SHV is another on my reversal watch-list. It's not ready yet.

The company has had a horror two years and the share price has been in a strong down trend over that time.

IMO the share price is nearing an important area. The company has recently raised capital at 4.20/s. This extra capital has been used to buy more almond acreage and secure water availability. Major projects that have been delayed and over budget are finally nearly completion.

I would expect the 4.20 level to provide some support, but there is a much more important level at 3.70. You can see this level marked on the weekly chart. If price goes below this then this company is dead (to me).

It's not ready yet. I'd like to see some demand soon that will stop the down trend. Then I'd expect a sideways basing pattern to form as the last of the frustrated longer term holders sell to the more optimistic longer term investors.

 

[peter2]

Soon after the last post SHV received some demand which formed an outside reversal bar on the weekly chart. Price then went sideways for six weeks before further demand bid the price up. This is a good chart for a Wyckoff student (weekly chart shows the SC, AR, Spring, SOS).

 

[barney]

Courtesy of @tech/a Posted 22 June 2018

 

[barney]

SHV chart update from tech/a …. Posted 4th July 2018

 

[JTLP]

SHV chart update from tech/a …. Posted 4th July 2018View attachment 88222

Barney - would you mind giving a little context around these charts and what they mean?

 

[Mr Bear]

Purely looking at momentum, rank 7th overall within small cap index. And one of the two stocks on the top 10 momentum that is not from mining or mineral sector/industry from the index.

Hi HR,

What momentum metric are you using to quote these rankings?

 

[barney]

Barney - would you mind giving a little context around these charts and what they mean?

Hi @JTLP ……. This chart and some others were borrowed from @tech/a 's threads Tech gives his commentary on how he sees the charts progressing .... See links below Cheers.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...lysts-an-application-to-trading-stocks.34044/

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...mple-charts-analysis.34060/page-2#post-988332

 

[peter2]

Some price movements drive me nutty, but this sustained selling and 24% price fall in SHV is so far unexplained.

I've been hit by a few lately (SHV, JIN, APE, CGC). It's an interesting market atm.

 

[tech/a]

Pete
Do price movements need to be explained.
Isn’t supply flooding the share explanation enough?

Do you just hang on all the while protesting
THIS SHOULDNT HAPPEN?

Why when standing in a taxi rank if I look up and point
Everyone else looks up and some point!

 

[debtfree]

@tech/a I don't think @peter2 is hanging on to this stock at all.

Looking at his weekly chart I noticed 3 little blue circles (Dec/Jan/Feb) which I would say to be his buying areas. My rough guess is an average price of about 4.80
Then he also has a red circle on the opening of the 2nd red bar (2nd July) which I would take it he sold @ 6.90. So I'm presuming trade is over and he's not hanging on.

I think he just stating how can it fall by 24% and no explanation has been made at all.

Thanks once again @tech/a for your charts, love seeing what you see and your views.

Cheers ... Debtfree

 

[tech/a]

Wasn't meant as a personal slight in anyway towards Peter and I agree I doubt he has the stock and he is being somewhat humorous.

My comments were meant as general rhetoric.

Usual rush without being sensitive !

 

[tech/a]

The last week has shown an increase in volume as the stock falls The last 4 Hrly bars has seen range decrease and some consolidation occur. (Low volume up day today) Ill post that chart when I get a chance. A great ABC example on this move on that chart as well!

This is signalling an exhaustion of this current down move.

From here I expect limited down side without a catalyst.

 

[kid hustlr]

One I've had some success in with previous trades - SHV appears to be trying to bottom with some positive price action over the past several days.

Can be a little skittish. It has range traded between 4 & 7.50 for the best part of 3 years

 

[peter2]

The chart below is part of a research project and should not be considered a recommendation to buy this stock. If you want to read more about the project log in to read the P2 Weekly Portfolio thread.

Setup: Pre-empting BO-NH in new trend Grade B due to low daily traded volume
Buy limit: 6.45, iSL 5.7, initial target 7.49